Short-term traffic volume forecasting : a k-nearest neighbor approach enhanced by constrained linearly sewing principle component algorithm

To enhance the performance of the k-nearest neighbors approach in forecasting short-term traffic volume, this paper proposed and tested a two-step approach with the ability of forecasting multiple steps. In selecting k-nearest neighbors, a time constraint window is introduced, and then local minima of the distances between the state vectors are ranked to avoid overlappings among candidates. Moreover, to control extreme values’ undesirable impact, a novel algorithm with attractive analytical features is developed based on the principle component. The enhanced KNN method has been evaluated using the field data, and our comparison analysis shows that it outperformed the competing algorithms in most cases.

Selecting volatility forecasting models for portfolio allocation purposes

Techniques for evaluating and selecting multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet understood as well as their univariate counterparts. This paper considers the ability of different loss functions to discriminate between a set of competing forecasting models which are subsequently applied in a portfolio allocation context. It is found that a likelihood-based loss function outperforms its competitors, including those based on the given portfolio application. This result indicates that considering the particular application of forecasts is not necessarily the most effective basis on which to select models.

Psychometric properties of the modified RESIDE physical activity questionnaire among low-income overweight women

Objectives This study explored the criterion-related validity and test-retest reliability of the modified RESIDential Environment physical activity questionnaire and whether the instrument's validity varied by body mass index, education, race/ethnicity, or employment status. Design Validation study using baseline data collected for randomized trial of a weight loss intervention. Methods Participants recruited from health departments wore an ActiGraph accelerometer and self-reported non-occupational walking, moderate and vigorous physical activity on the modified RESIDential Environment questionnaire. We assessed validity (n = 152) using Spearman correlation coefficients, and reliability (n = 57) using intraclass correlation coefficients. Results When compared to steps, moderate physical activity, and bouts of moderate/vigorous physical activity measured by accelerometer, these questionnaire measures showed fair evidence for validity: recreational walking (Spearman correlation coefficients 0.23–0.36), total walking (Spearman correlation coefficients 0.24–0.37), and total moderate physical activity (Spearman correlation coefficients 0.18–0.36). Correlations for self-reported walking and moderate physical activity were higher among unemployed participants and women with lower body mass indices. Generally no other variability in the validity of the instrument was found. Evidence for reliability of RESIDential Environment measures of recreational walking, total walking, and total moderate physical activity was substantial (intraclass correlation coefficients 0.56–0.68). Conclusions Evidence for questionnaire validity and reliability varied by activity domain and was strongest for walking measures. The questionnaire may capture physical activity less accurately among women with higher body mass indices and employed participants. Capturing occupational activity, specifically walking at work, may improve questionnaire validity.

Outsourcing income tax returns : convenient and/or controversial

This paper investigates the outsourcing of income tax return preparation by Australian accounting firms. It identifies the extent to which firms are currently outsourcing accounting services or considering outsourcing accounting services, with a focus on personal and business income tax return preparation. The motivations and barriers for outsourcing by Australian accounting firms are also considered in this paper. Privacy, security of client data, and the competence of the outsourcing provider's staff have been identified as risks associated with outsourcing. An expectation relating to confidentiality of client data is also examined in this paper. Statistical analysis of data collected from a random sample of Australian accounting firms using a survey questionnaire provided the empirical data for the paper. The results indicate that the majority of Australian accounting firms are either currently outsourcing or considering outsourcing accounting services, and firms are outsourcing taxation preparation both onshore and offshore. The results also indicate that firms expect the volume of outsourced work to increase in the future. In contrast to the literature identifying labour arbitrage as the primary driver for organisations choosing to outsource, this study found that the main factors considered by accounting firms in the decision to outsource were to expedite delivery of services to clients and to enable the firm to focus on core competencies. Data from this study also supports the literature which ndicates that not all tax practitioners are adhering to codes of conduct in relation to client confidentiality. Research identifying the extent to which accounting services are outsourced is limited, therefore significant contributions to the academic literature and the accounting profession are provided by this ndicates that not all tax practitioners are adhering to codes of conduct in relation to client confidentiality. Research identifying the extent to which accounting services are outsourced is limited, therefore significant contributions to the academic literature and the accounting profession are provided by this study.

Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Imputing a continuous income variable from a bracketed income variable with special attention to missing observations

This paper proposes a method, based on polychotomous discrete choice methods, to impute a continuous measure of income when only a bracketed measure of income is available and for only a subset of the obsevations. The method is shown to perform well with CP5 data. © 1991.

Defining and Accounting for Fundraising Income and Expenses

Charities' fundraising financial transactions should be reported in the interests of accountability, and the report should be publicly available. However, research shows that at present there is little consistency in how fundraising is defined or in how such transactions are reported, and little guidance from accounting standards. This report examines whether the current reporting of fundraising in annual financial statements by Australian charities is fit for the purposes of informing the donating public and other stakeholders, whether through the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission’s registry strategy or through other means such as private ratings agencies. The authors endeavour to suggest a way forward if it is not.

Defining and Accounting for Fundraising Income and Expenses : Executive Summary : ACPNS Current issues Information Sheet 2014/2

Executive summary of Report examining definitions of fundraising and formal Australian accounting standards to ascertain their impact on reporting fundraising transactions by not-for-profit entities.

Does energy substitution affect carbon dioxide emissions : income relationship?

Considerable discussion has taken place during the last decade regarding the role of economic growth in determining environmental quality. Using data from 30 OECD countries for the period 1960-2003 and the nonparametric method of generalized additive models, which enables us to use flexible functional forms, this paper examines the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for carbon dioxide (CO2). We find that the reduction of coal share in energy use has a significant effect on CO2. Our results imply that economic growth is not sufficient to decrease CO2 emissions.

The psychological and economic factors that influence energy consumption habits of low-income earners

Social marketers and governments have often targeted hard to reach or vulnerable groups (Gordon et al., 2006) such as young adults and low income earners. Past research has shown that low-income earners are often at risk of poor health outcomes and diminished lifestyle (Hampson et al., 2009; Scott et al., 2012). Young adults (aged 18 to 35) are in a transition phase of their life where lifestyle preferences are still being formed and are thus a useful target for long-term sustainable change. An area of focus for all levels of government is the use of energy with an aim to reduce consumption. There is little research to date that combines both of these groups and in particular in the context of household energy usage. Research into financially disadvantaged consumers is challenging the notion that that low income consumer purchasing and usage of products and services is based upon economic status (Sharma et al., 2012). Prior research shows higher income earners view items such as televisions and computers as necessities rather than non-essential (Karlsson et al., 2004). Consistent with this is growing evidence that low income earners purchase non-essential, energy intensive electronic appliances such as multiple big screen TV sets and additional refrigerators. With this in mind, there is a need for knowledge about how psychological and economic factors influence the energy consumption habits (e.g. appliances on standby power, leaving appliances turned on, running multiple devices at one time) of low income earners. Thus, our study sought to address the research question of: What are the factors that influence young adult low-income earners energy habits?

An unrelated income tax for Australia?

The Australian tax regime for not for profit organisations is notable because of its tolerance of such organisations generating untaxed trading income, unlike the United States and United Kingdom tax regimes. In 2011, the Australian government announced new arrangements for untaxed trading income after a High Court case drew attention to it. This chapter identifies issues experienced on a practical level in the US and the UK, where unrelated business income is taxed, and offers directions for any future Australian attempt to tax this income.

After-acquired income and contributions by Australian bankrupts: can pay, should pay, making them pay!

This article explores the issue of income of bankrupts from the historical, theoretical and legislative viewpoints. After setting out the foundation for our present law, the article reviews the current statistics on the use of the existing legislative income contribution regime and analyses the jurisprudence which has made the notion of after-acquired income - and the ability of bankrupts to invest it - opaque. The article then canvasses the ‘can pay, should pay’ notion of income contributions by bankrupts together with the current debate on ‘making them pay’.

Child health and the income gradient : evidence from Australia

The positive relationship between household income and child health is well documented in the child health literature but the precise mechanisms via which income generates better health and whether the income gradient is increasing in child age are not well understood. This paper presents new Australian evidence on the child health–income gradient. We use data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC), which involved two waves of data collection for children born between March 2003 and February 2004 (B-Cohort: 0–3 years), and between March 1999 and February 2000 (K-Cohort: 4–7 years). This data set allows us to test the robustness of some of the findings of the influential studies of Case et al. [Case, A., Lubotsky, D., Paxson, C., 2002. Economic status and health in childhood: the origins of the gradient. The American Economic Review 92 (5) 1308–1344] and Currie and Stabile [Currie, J., Stabile, M., 2003. Socioeconomic status and child health: why is the relationship stronger for older children. The American Economic Review 93 (5) 1813–1823], and a recent study by Currie et al. [Currie, A., Shields, M.A., Price, S.W., 2007. The child health/family income gradient: evidence from England. Journal of Health Economics 26 (2) 213–232]. The richness of the LSAC data set also allows us to conduct further exploration of the determinants of child health. Our results reveal an increasing income gradient by child age using similar covariates to Case et al. [Case, A., Lubotsky, D., Paxson, C., 2002. Economic status and health in childhood: the origins of the gradient. The American Economic Review 92 (5) 1308–1344]. However, the income gradient disappears if we include a rich set of controls. Our results indicate that parental health and, in particular, the mother's health plays a significant role, reducing the income coefficient to zero; suggesting an underlying mechanism that can explain the observed relationship between child health and family income. Overall, our results for Australian children are similar to those produced by Propper et al. [Propper, C., Rigg, J., Burgess, S., 2007. Child health: evidence on the roles of family income and maternal mental health from a UK birth cohort. Health Economics 16 (11) 1245–1269] on their British child cohort.