Using Coxian Phase-Type Distributions to Identify Patient Characteristics for Duration of Stay in Hospital

Coxian phase-type distributions are a special type of Markov model that describes duration until an event occurs in terms of a process consisting of a sequence of latent phases. This paper considers the use of Coxian phase-type distributions for modelling patient duration of stay for the elderly in hospital and investigates the potential for using the resulting distribution as a classifying variable to identify common characteristics between different groups of patients according to their (anticipated) length of stay in hospital. The identification of common characteristics for patient length of stay groups would offer hospital managers and clinicians possible insights into the overall management and bed allocation of the hospital wards.

Outreach and Early Warning Systems (EWS) for the prevention of intensive care admission and death of critically ill adult patients on general hospital wards

BACKGROUND: Despite the fact that outreach and early warning systems (EWS) are an integral part of a hospital wide systems approach to improve the early identification and management of deteriorating patients on general hospital wards, the widespread implementation of these interventions in practice is not based on robust research evidence. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective was to determine the impact of critical care outreach services on hospital mortality rates. Secondary objectives included determining the effect of outreach services on intensive care unit (ICU) admission patterns, length of hospital stay and adverse events. SEARCH STRATEGY: The review authors searched the following electronic databases: EPOC Specialised Register, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and other Cochrane databases (all on The Cochrane Library 2006, Issue 3), MEDLINE (1996-June week 3 2006), EMBASE (1974-week 26 2006), CINAHL (1982-July week 5 2006), First Search (1992-2005) and CAB Health (1990-July 2006); also reference lists of relevant articles, conference abstracts, and made contact with experts and critical care organisations for further information. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials (CCTs), controlled before and after studies (CBAs) and interrupted time series designs (ITS) which measured hospital mortality, unanticipated ICU admissions, ICU readmissions, length of hospital stay and adverse events following implementation of outreach and EWS in a general hospital ward to identify deteriorating adult patients versus general hospital ward setting without outreach and EWS were included in the review. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Three review authors independently extracted data and two review authors assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. Meta-analysis was not possible due to heterogeneity. Summary statistics and descriptive summaries of primary and secondary outcomes are presented for each study. MAIN RESULTS: Two cluster-randomised control trials were included: one randomised at hospital level (23 hospitals in Australia) and one at ward level (16 wards in the UK). The primary outcome in the Australian trial (a composite score comprising incidence of unexpected cardiac arrests, unexpected deaths and unplanned ICU admissions) showed no statistical significant difference between control and medical emergency team (MET) hospitals (adjusted P value 0.640; adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.98; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83 to 1.16). The UK-based trial found that outreach reduced in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.52; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.85) compared with the control group. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence from this review highlights the diversity and poor methodological quality of most studies investigating outreach. The results of the two included studies showed either no evidence of the effectiveness of outreach or a reduction in overall mortality in patients receiving outreach. The lack of evidence on outreach requires further multi-site RCT's to determine potential effectiveness.

Perceived causes of prescribing errors by junior doctors in hospital inpatients:a study from the PROTECT programme

Prescribing errors are a major cause of patient safety incidents. Understanding the underlying factors is essential in developing interventions to address this problem. This study aimed to investigate the perceived causes of prescribing errors among foundation (junior) doctors in Scotland.

Who makes prescribing decisions in hospital inpatients?:An observational study

Errors involving drug prescriptions are a key target for patient safety initiatives. Recent studies have focused on error rates across different grades of doctors in order to target interventions. However, many prescriptions are not instigated by the doctor who writes them. It is important to clarify how often this occurs in order to interpret these studies and create interventions. This study aimed to provisionally quantify and describe prescriptions where the identity of the decision maker and prescription writer differed.

USING ‘NUTRITIONAL NARRATIVE’ AND FOCUS GROUPS TO UNDERSTAND HOW NUTRITIONAL CARE CAN BETTER PRIORITISED FOR OLDER PEOPLE IN HOSPITAL SETTINGS

Introduction: Poor nutritional status among older people is well documented with 40% of older people reported as malnourished on hospital admission. Poor nutrition contributes to increased infection, poorer patient outcomes and death and longer hospital stays. In this study, we assessed the ‘nutrition narrative’ from older hospital patients together with nutrition knowledge among nursing and medical staff and students.
Methods: The study used a convenience sample of older people (30, mean age 82 years) in two large geographically separate city hospitals. Patients mentally alert and consenting, gave a recorded ‘nutrition narrative’ to get a sense of how they felt their nutritional needs were being met in hospital. Main themes were identified by grounded analysis framework. Focus groups were recruited from medical/nursing teachers and students to assess their working knowledge of nutrition and the nutritional needs of the older patient group.
Results: Analysis of the ‘nutrition narrative’ suggested several themes (i) staff should listen to patients' needs/wishes in discussion with themselves and family members (ii) staff should continue to encourage and progress a positive eating experience (iii) staff should monitor food eaten/or not eaten and increase regular monitoring of weight. The focus groups with medical and nursing students suggested a limited knowledge about nutritional care of older people and little understanding about roles or cross-talk about nutrition across the multidisciplinary groups.
Conclusions: The ‘nutrition narrative’ themes suggested that the nutritional experience of older people in hospital can and must be improved. Nursing and medical staff providing medical and nursing care need better basic knowledge of nutrition and nutritional assessment, an improved understanding of the roles of the various multidisciplinary staff and of hospital catering pathways. Care professionals need to prioritise patient nutrition much more highly and recognise nutritional care as integral to patient healing and recovery

Identifying Structural Breaks in Stochastic Mortality Models

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of utmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies, and government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and hence life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data to anticipate future life expectancy and hence quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age, and cohort and forecast these trends into the future by using standard statistical methods. These approaches rely on the assumption that structural breaks in the trend do not exist or do not have a significant impact on the mortality forecasts. Recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive investigation of the presence or of structural breaks in a selection of leading mortality models. We find that structural breaks are present in the majority of cases. In particular, we find that allowing for structural break, where present, improves the forecast result significantly.

An Appraisal of End-of-Life Care in Persons with Chronic Kidney Disease Dying in Hospital Wards

AIM: To review end-of-life care provided by renal healthcare professionals to hospital in-patients with chronic kidney disease, and their carers, over a 12-month period in Northern Ireland.

METHODS: Retrospective review of 100 patients.

RESULTS: Mean age at death was 72 years (19-95) and 56% were male. Eighty three percent of patients had a 'Not For Attempted Resuscitation' order during their last admission and this was implemented in 42%. Less than 20% of all patients died in a hospital ward. No patients had an advanced care plan, although 42% had commenced the Liverpool Care Pathway for the Dying Patient. Patients suffered excessive end-of-life symptoms. In addition, there was limited documentation of carer involvement and carer needs were not formally assessed.

CONCLUSION: End-of-life care for patients with advanced chronic renal disease can be enhanced. There is significant variation in the recording of discussions regarding impending death and little preparation. There is poor recording of the patients' wishes regarding death. Those with declining functional status, including those frequently admitted to hospital require holistic assessment regarding end-of-life needs. More effective communication between the patient, family and multi-professional team is required for patients who are dying and those caring for them.