Pseudo-fractional ARMA modelling using a double Levinson recursion

IET Control Theory & Applications, Vol. 1, Nº 1

On the initial conditions in continuous-time fractional linear systems

Signal Processing, Vol. 83, nº 11

New insights into pseudo-fractional ARMA modelling

Proceedings of the International Conference on Computational Cybernetics, Vienna University of Technology, August 30 - September 1, 2004

Damage detection in structures using a transmissibility-based Mahalanobis distance

In this paper, a damage-detection approach using the Mahalanobis distance with structural forced dynamic response data, in the form of transmissibility, is proposed. Transmissibility, as a damage-sensitive feature, varies in accordance with the damage level. Besides, Mahalanobis distance can distinguish the damaged structural state condition from the undamaged one by condensing the baseline data. For comparison reasons, the Mahalanobis distance results using transmissibility are compared with those using frequency response functions. The experiment results reveal quite a significant capacity for damage detection, and the comparison between the use of transmissibility and frequency response functions shows that, in both cases, the different damage scenarios could be well detected. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Oil price shocks and the Portuguese economy since the 1970s

This paper assesses empirically the effect of oil price shocks on Portuguese aggregate economic activity, industrial production and price level. We take the usual multivariate VAR methodology to investigate the magnitude and stability of this relationship. In doing so, we follow the approach presented in the recent literature and adopt different oil price specifications. We conclude that, as for most industrialized countries, the nature of this relationship changed in the mid-1980s. Furthermore, we show that the main Portuguese macroeconomic variables have become progressively less responsive to oil shocks and the adjustment towards equilibrium has become increasingly faster.

Carbon prices. Dynamic analysis of European and Californian markets

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Alterações Climáticas e Políticas de Desenvolvimento Sustentável

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

Energy and carbon prices: a comparison of interactions in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and the Western Climate Initiative market

We provide a comparative analysis of how short-run variations in carbon and energy prices relate to each other in the emerging greenhouse gas market in California (Western Climate Initiative [WCI], and the European Union Emission Trading Scheme [EU ETS]). We characterize the relationship between carbon, gas, coal, electricity and gasoline prices and an indicator for economic activity, and present a first analysis of carbon prices in the WCI. We also provide a comparative analysis of the structures of the two markets. We estimate a vector autoregressive model and the impulse--response functions. Our main findings show a positive impact from a carbon shock toward electricity, in both markets, but larger in the WCI electricity price, indicating more efficiency. We propose that the widening of carbon market sectors, namely fuels transport and electricity imports, may contribute to this result. To conclude, the research shows significant and coherent relations between variables in WCI, which demonstrate some degree of success for a first year in operation. Reversely, the EU ETS should complete its intended market reform, to allow for more impact of the carbon price. Finally, in both markets, there is no evidence of carbon pricing depleting economic activity.

Chromatic responses in human visual cortex : effects of color, velocity and contrast

fMRI, color, colour, velocity, speed, contrast, cone contrast, V1, V4, hV4, MT, MT+, V3A, BOLD, Retinotopic Mapping, Contrast Response Function

The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?

In this paper, we attempt to give a theoretical underpinning to the well established empirical stylized fact that asset returns in general and the spot FOREX returns in particular display predictable volatility characteristics. Adopting Moore and Roche s habit persistence version of Lucas model we nd that both the innovation in the spot FOREX return and the FOREX return itself follow "ARCH" style processes. Using the impulse response functions (IRFs) we show that the baseline simulated FOREX series has "ARCH" properties in the quarterly frequency that match well the "ARCH" properties of the empirical monthly estimations in that when we scale the x-axis to synchronize the monthly and quarterly responses we find similar impulse responses to one unit shock in variance. The IRFs for the ARCH processes we estimate "look the same" with an approximately monotonic decreasing fashion. The Lucas two-country monetary model with habit can generate realistic conditional volatility in spot FOREX return.

Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada

VAR methods have been used to model the inter-relationships between inflows and outfl ows into unemployment and vacancies using tools such as impulse response analysis. In order to investigate whether such impulse responses change over the course of the business cycle or or over time, this paper uses TVP-VARs for US and Canadian data. For the US, we find interesting differences between the most recent recession and earlier recessions and expansions. In particular, we find the immediate effect of a negative shock on both in ow and out flow hazards to be larger in 2008 than in earlier times. Furthermore, the effect of this shock takes longer to decay. For Canada, we fi nd less evidence of time-variation in impulse responses.

Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending

We study the effects of government spending by using a structural, large dimensional, dynamic factor model. We find that the government spending shock is non-fundamental for the variables commonly used in the structural VAR literature, so that its impulse response functions cannot be consistently estimated by means of a VAR. Government spending raises both consumption and investment, with no evidence of crowding out. The impact multiplier is 1.7 and the long run multiplier is 0.6.

No news in business cycles

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explaining the business cycle; (iii) their effects are in line with what predicted by standard neoclassical theory; (iv) the bulk of business cycle fluctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology.

Disseny d'un sistema de filtrat d'àudio

Tant el medi transmissor com els equips d'enregistrament o reproducció de so introdueixen components de soroll d'alta freqüència als senyals. En aquest treball de final de carrera (TFC), s'ha dissenyat i implementat un sistema de filtrat d'àudio encaminat a filtrar aquestes components d'alta freqüència. Donat que l'oïda humana no pot percebre sons de més de 20 kHz, s'ha considerat aquest límit com a freqüència màxima a mantenir en la senyal.S'ha començat estudiant el senyal problema a través del seu espectre de freqüències simulat mitjançant la transformada discreta de Fourier (DFT, en anglès). Una vegada identificades les components d'alta freqüència a atenuar, s'han estudiat les diferents opcions de filtre passabaix.Inicialment, s'ha valorat la possibilitat del disseny de filtres analògics de Butterworth o Chebyshev, o de filtres digitals de tipus IIR (Infinite Impulse Response) basats en els primers. Tanmateix, malgrat assolir les especificacions en magnitud, mitjançant aquest filtres no s'obté una fase lineal en la banda de pas. Per això, s'ha realitzat un disseny de filtre digital tipus FIR (Finite Infinite Response) que compleix estrictament amb les especificacions i presenta una fase lineal en la banda de pas. S'ha simulat el comportament d'aquest filtre amb el senyal problema per tal d'assegurar el seu correcte funcionament.A continuació, s'ha implementat aquest últim disseny en llenguatge C i compilat per un microcontrolador de l'empresa Microchip. S'han realitzat proves de simulació mitjançant Stimulus del programa MPLAB. En definitiva, s'ha dissenyat un filtre passabaix de tipus FIR per acondicionar una senyal d'àudio que posteriorment s'ha implementat en un microcontrolador de Microchip.