How different are the correlates of onset and continuation of civil wars?

It is very common to analyse the factors associated with the onset and continuation of civil wars entirely separately, as if there were likely to be no similarity between them. This is an overstatement of the theoretical position, which has established only that they may be different (i.e. less than perfectly correlated). The hypothesis that the explanatory variables are the same is not theoretically excludable and is empirically testable, both for individual variables and for combinations of them. Starting from this approach yields a rather different picture of the factors associated with the continuation of civil wars, because the relatively small sample size means that confidence intervals on individual coefficients are wide in this case. It is shown here that country size, mountainous terrain and (in most datasets) ethnic diversity seem significant for the continuation of civil wars, starting from the null hypothesis that variables affect onset and continuation probabilities identically, rather than entirely independently. One variable that affects onset and continuation significantly differently is anocracy, which we find to matter only for onset. Civil war is more likely if it occurred two years previously, as well as one year previously, which indicates that wars are more likely to restart after only one year of peace, and also more likely to stop in their first year. The combined model strengthens the result that ethnic diversity matters (it is consistently significant across datasets, whereas it is not when onset is analysed separately), although in the UCD/PRIO dataset it is significant only for onset. By contrast, if continuation is analysed independently, virtually nothing is significant except a pre-1991 dummy and a dummy for civil war two years previously.

Children of the revolution: parents, children and the revolutionary struggle in late imperial Russia

While there has been a considerable growth in scholarly interest in Russian child- hood and youth, the presence of children in the revolutionary movement has largely been overlooked. Studies of female revolutionaries have acknowledged that family concerns often had an impact on women’s party careers, but few have explored fully the relationship between mothers and their children. Similarly, “general” historical works on the Russian revolution have rarely engaged with questions about the family lives of the predominantly male party members. This article will assess how becoming a parent affected the careers of both male and female revolutionaries, as well as the ways in which familial concerns and the presence of children had an impact on the movement itself. It will highlight that children could have both positive and negative effects on the operations of the underground, at times disrupting activities, but at others proving to be useful decoys and helpers. Children’s attitudes to their parents’ revolutionary careers will also be examined, highlighting that while some children wished they had less politically active parents, others enthusiastically helped the movement. Though expanding the scholarly gaze on the Russian underground to take in the presence of children does not change the grand narrative of the revolution, it enriches our understanding considerably and offers a new insight into the daily struggles of the revolutionary movement.

Beyond Sex, Bond and Star Wars : Exhibition Data from the Southampton Odeon 1972-1980

This article uses the personal ledgers of a cinema manager to explore programming and film exhibition at the Southampton Odeon in the 1970s. The detailed accounts provide a rare insight into cinema exhibition and challenge the notion that 1970s cinema was all about sex, violence, horror and exploitation, suggesting instead that audiences at this cinema, favoured very different fare.

Transnational Culture Wars

The well-known ‘culture wars’ clash in the United States between civil society actors has now gone transnational. Political science scholarship has long detailed how liberal human rights non-governmental organizations NGOs engage in extensive transnational activity in support of their ideals. More recently, US conservative groups (including faith-based NGOs) have begun to emulate these strategies, promoting their convictions by engaging in transnational advocacy. NGOs thus face off against each other politically across the globe. Less well known is the extent to which these culture wars are conducted in courts, using conflicting interpretations of human rights law. Many of the same protagonists, particularly NGOs that find themselves against each other in US courts, now find new litigation opportunities abroad in which to fight their battles. These developments, and their implications, are the focus of this article. In particular, the extent to which US faith-based NGOs have leveraged the experience gained transnationally to use international and foreign jurisprudence in interventions before the US Supreme Court is assessed.

Land wars in India: Contestations, social forces and evolving neoliberal urban transformation

Land wars in India: Contestations, social forces and evolving neoliberal urban transformation
The recent incidents of ‘land wars’ in India have highlighted the contradictions and challenges of the neoliberal urban transformation through a range of issues across governance, equity and empowerment in the development agenda. Simply put, a strong top down approach and corporate-political nexus have determined the modality of land acquisition, compensation and ultimately the nature of its consumption leaving out majority urban poor from its benefits. The paper focuses on the concept of neoliberalism as a modality of urban governance and emergence of the grassroots activism as a countermagnate to neoliberalist hegemony by examining the inequity and marginalization that embody these ‘land wars’ in India and the forms of resistance from the grassroots - their capacity, relationship and modus operandi. Emerging lessons suggest the potential for advancing governance from the bottoms up leading to more equitable distribution of resources. It is however argued that there is a need for a stronger conception of the ‘grassroots’ in both epistemological and empirical context. In particular, the preconditions for the ‘grassroots organisations’ to foster and play a more effective role requires a more inclusive notion of ‘institutionality and plurality’ within the current political economic context. The empirical focus of the paper is ‘land wars’ observed in Kolkata, West Bengal, however references to other examples across the country have also been made.

Lead concentrations in bones and feathers of the globally threatened Spanish imperial eagle

Raptors that consume game species may ingest lead fragments or shot embedded in their prey's flesh. Threatened Spanish imperial eagles Aquila adalberti feed on greylag geese in southern Spain in winter, and often ingest lead shot. We analysed bone and feather samples from 65 Spanish imperial eagle museum specimens collected between 1980 and 1999, to investigate the prevalence of elevated lead concentrations. Four of 34 birds (12%) had very elevated bone lead concentrations. All four birds were young and the concentrations were outliers to the distribution, suggesting probable exposure to lead gunshot. Excluding these elevated lead outliers, bone lead concentrations were correlated with the bird's age at death. Three of 41 feathers (7%) had elevated lead concentrations, indicative of high exposure during feather formation. When these outliers were omitted, feather lead concentration was correlated with the age of museum specimens, suggesting that a high proportion of feather lead was exogenous, deposited after specimen collection. Therefore, careful interpretation of feather lead concentrations is required to separate endogenous and exogenous lead. We discuss the potential significance of lead poisoning in Spanish imperial eagles and other raptors, and recommend measures for its reduction. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.