First-passage times for non-Markovian processes: Correlated impacts on bound processes

Our previously developed stochastic trajectory analysis technique has been applied to the calculation of first-passage time statistics of bound processes. Explicit results are obtained for linearly bound processes driven by dichotomous fluctuations having exponential and rectangular temporal distributions.

Negative and positive effects of trade on health.

Comment on: Blouin C, Chopra M, van der Hoeven R.Trade and social determinants of health. Lancet. 2009;373(9662):502-7. PMID: 19167058.

Climate Change Impacts on Iowa, 2010, January 1, 2011

Today, perhaps without their realization, Iowans are factoring climate change into their lives and activities. Current farming practices and flood mitigation efforts, for example, are reflecting warmer winters, longer growing seasons, warmer nights, higher dew-point temperatures, increased humidity, greater annual stream flows, and more frequent severe precipitation events (Fig. 1) than were prevalent during the past 50 years. Some of the effects of these changes (such as longer growing season) may be positive, while others (particularly the tendency for greater precipitation events that lead to flooding) are negative. Climate change embodies all of these results and many more in a complex manner. The Iowa legislature has been proactive in seeking advice about climate change and its impacts on our state. In 2007, Governor Culver and the Iowa General Assembly enacted Senate File 485 and House File 2571 to create the Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council (ICCAC). ICCAC members reported an emissions inventory and a forecast for Iowa’s greenhouse gases (GHGs), policy options for reducing Iowa’s GHG, and two scenarios charting GHG reductions of 50% and 90% by 2050 from a baseline of 2005. Following issuance of the final report in December 2008, the General Assembly enacted a new bill in 2009 (Sec. 27, Section 473.7, Code 2009 amended) that set in motion a review of climate change impacts and policies in Iowa. This report is the result of that 2009 bill. It continues the dialogue between Iowa’s stakeholders, scientific community, and the state legislature that was begun with these earlier reports.

Impacts on the deep-sea ecosystem by a severe coastal storm

Major coastal storms, associated with strong winds, high waves and intensified currents, and occasionally with heavy rains and flash floods, are mostly known because of the serious damage they can cause along the shoreline and the threats they pose to navigation. However, there is a profound lack of knowledge on the deep-sea impacts of severe coastal storms. Concurrent measurements of key parameters along the coast and in the deep-sea are extremely rare. Here we present a unique data set showing how one of the most extreme coastal storms of the last decades lashing the Western Mediterranean Sea rapidly impacted the deep-sea ecosystem. The storm peaked the 26th of December 2008 leading to the remobilization of a shallow-water reservoir of marine organic carbon associated with fine particles and resulting in its redistribution across the deep basin. The storm also initiated the movement of large amounts of coarse shelf sediment, which abraded and buried benthic communities. Our findings demonstrate, first, that severe coastal storms are highly efficient in transporting organic carbon from shallow water to deep water, thus contributing to its sequestration and, second, that natural, intermittent atmospheric drivers sensitive to global climate change have the potential to tremendously impact the largest and least known ecosystem on Earth, the deep-sea ecosystem.

Impacts on Safety of Left-Turn Treatment at High Speed Signalized Intersections, HR-347, 1994

Left-turning traffic is a major source of conflicts at intersections. Though an average of only 10% to 15% of all approach traffic turns left, these vehicles are involved in approximately 45% of all accidents. This report presents the results of research conducted to develop models which estimate approach accident rates at high speed signalized intersections. The objective of the research was to quantify the relationship between traffic and intersection characteristics, and accident potential of different left turn treatments. Geometric, turning movement counts, and traffic signal phasing data were collected at 100 intersections in Iowa using a questionnaire sent to municipalities. Not all questionnaires resulted in complete data and ultimately complete data were derived for 63 intersections providing a database of 248 approaches. Accident data for the same approaches were obtained from the Iowa Department of Transportation Accident Location and Analysis System (ALAS). Regression models were developed for two different dependent variables: 1) the ratio of the number of left turn accidents per approach to million left turning vehicles per approach, and 2) the ratio of accidents per approach to million traffic movements per approach. A number of regression models were developed for both dependent variables. One model using each dependent variable was developed for intersections with low, medium, and high left turning traffic volumes. As expected, the research indicates that protected left turn phasing has a lower accident potential than protected/permitted or permitted phasing. Left turn lanes and multiple lane approaches are beneficial for reducing accident rates, while raised medians increase the likelihood of accidents. Signals that are part of a signal system tend to have lower accident rates than isolated signals. The resulting regression models may be used to determine the likely impact of various left turn treatments on intersection accident rates. When designing an intersection approach, a traffic engineer may use the models to estimate the accident rate reduction as a result of improved lane configurations and left turn treatments. The safety benefits may then be compared to any costs associated with operational effects to the intersection (i.e., increased delay) to determine the benefits and costs of making intersection safety improvements.

The effect of exercise, alcohol or both combined on health and physical performance.

Alcohol (ethanol) is consumed on a daily basis by a large fraction of the population, and in many countries, light-to-moderate alcohol consumption is considered as an integral part of the diet. Although the relationship between alcohol intake and obesity is controversial, regular consumption of alcohol, through its effects in suppressing fat oxidation, is regarded as a risk factor for weight gain, increased abdominal obesity and hypertriglyceridemia. Indeed, alcohol taken with a meal leads to an increase in postprandial lipemia-an effect on postprandial metabolism that is opposite to that observed with exercise. Furthermore, although regular exercise training and/or a preprandial exercise session reduce postprandial lipemia independently of alcohol ingestion, the exercise-induced reduction in postprandial lipemia is nonetheless less pronounced when alcohol is also consumed with the meal. Whether or not alcohol influences exercise and sport performance remains contradictory. It is believed that alcohol has deleterious effects on the performance, although it may contribute to reduce pain and anxiety. The alcohol effects on sports performance depend on the type and dosage of alcohol, acute vs chronic administration, the alcohol elimination rate as well as the type of exercise.

Spittlebug impacts on sugarcane quality and ethanol production

The objective of this work was to evaluate the impacts of spittlebug (Mahanarva fimbriolata) attack on sugarcane quality and ethanol production. Technological and microbiological parameters of juice and fermentation process were evaluated in ten fermentation cycles and two harvest seasons. Treatments consisted of different spittlebug stalk damage levels: control, with 100% of apparently healthy stalks; medium, with 15% of damaged or dry stalks (DDS); high, with 30% of DDS; and very high, with 60% of DDS. Spittlebug attack caused significant losses in cane quality, reducing total soluble solids, sucrose content, total reducing sugars, and pH, and increasing total phenolic compounds, and total and volatile juice acidity. The fermentation process was also significantly affected, resulting in lower ethanol content in wine. There was an increase in acetaldehyde concentration in the distillate. The spittlebug attack caused negative impacts on sugarcane quality and fermentation process, and these impacts are stronger in late season harvests.

Commentary : beyond vague causal effect estimation of obesity on health outcomes

In the current issue of epidemiology, Danaei and colleagues elegantly estimated both the direct effect and the indirect effect-that is, the effect mediated by blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, fibrinogen, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein-of body mass index (BMI) on the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). they analyzed data from 9 cohort studies including 58,322 patients and 9459 CHD events, with baseline measurements between 1954 and 2001. Using sophisticated and cutting-edge methods for direct and indirect effect estimations, the authors estimated that half of the risk of overweight and obesity would be mediated by blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose. Few additional percentage points of the risk would be mediated by fibrinogen and hs-CRP. How should we understand these estimates? Can we say that if obese persons reduce their body weight and reach a normal body weight, their excess risk of CHD would be reduced by half through an improvement in these mediators and by half through the reduction in BmI itself? Is that also true if these individuals are prevented from becoming obese in the first place? Can we also conclude that if these mediators are well controlled in obese individuals through other means than a body weight reduction, their excess risk of CHD would be reduced by half? Let us confront these estimates with observations from studies evaluating 2 interventions to reduce body weight, that is, bariatric surgery in patients with severe obesity and intensive lifestyle intervention in overweight patients with diabetes

Emission Trading and Tradable Green Certificates Impacts on the Business Activity of Vattenfall Oy

Ihmisen toiminnan vaikutus ilmakehään johtaa todennäköisesti ilmastonmuutoksiin. Eräs näistä muutoksista on maapallon keskilämpötilan nousu, joka aiheutuu kasvihuonekaasujen lisääntyneestä pitoisuudesta ilmakehässä. Vaikutusten vähentämiseksi on hiilidioksidipäästöjä vähennettävä. Kioton pöytäkirja asettaa allekirjoittaneille maille päästövelvoitteet. Euroopan unionin tulee vähentää kasvihuonekaasupäästöjään 8%:lla. Eräs vähennysmekanismeista on päästökauppa. Päästökauppa on sekä keino suojella ympäristöä että ympäristöpoliittinen instrumentti kasvihuonekaasupäästövähennysten kustannusten keventämiseksi. Päästökauppa ei suoranaisesti vähennä kasvihuonekaasupäästöjä, vaan tasaa niitä maiden ja laitosten välillä. Uusiutuvan energian käytön edistäminen sekä kansainvälisesti että kansallisesti johtaa suoriin kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen vähenemiseen. Euroopan unionin jäsenvaltiot ovat asettaneet kansalliset viitearvot uusituvan sähkön kulutukselle. Saavuttaakseen nämä viitearvot maiden tulee tukea uusiutuvia energialähteitä eri menetelmin kuten vihreillä sertifikaateilla. Päästökauppa ja kaupattavat vihreät sertifikaatit tulevat vaikuttamaan energiantuottajien liiketoimintaan. Työssä on tutkittu päästökaupan ja vihreiden sertifikaattien vaikutuksia Vattenfall Kaukolämpö Oy:n, Vattenfall Sähköntuotanto Oy:n ja Vamy Oy:n liiketoimintaan.

A Learner-Centred Game-Design Approach: Impacts on teachers" creativity

This study presents an innovative pedagogical approach where teachers become game designers and engage in creative teaching practices. Within co-design training workshops, 21 Spanish primary and secondary school teachers have developed their own Game-Based Learning (GBL) scenarios, especially tailored to their teaching contexts and students profiles. In total, teachers developed 13 GBL scenarios and put them into practice in real teaching contexts. The present paper analyses the impacts of this learner-centred game design approach on teachers" creativity from three different points of view: the GBL design process, the GBL scenario, and the teaching processes at stake.

Climate change impacts on lakes: an integrated ecological perspective based on a multi-faceted approach, with special focus on shallow lakes

Freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity are presently seriously threatened by global development and population growth, leading to increases in nutrient inputs and intensification of eutrophication-induced problems in receiving fresh waters, particularly in lakes. Climate change constitutes another threat exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication and species migration and loss. Unequivocal evidence of climate change impacts is still highly fragmented despite the intensive research, in part due to the variety and uncertainty of climate models and underlying emission scenarios but also due to the different approaches applied to study its effects. We first describe the strengths and weaknesses of the multi-faceted approaches that are presently available for elucidating the effects of climate change in lakes, including space-for-time substitution, time series, experiments, palaeoecology and modelling. Reviewing combined results from studies based on the various approaches, we describe the likely effects of climate changes on biological communities, trophic dynamics and the ecological state of lakes. We further discuss potential mitigation and adaptation measures to counteract the effects of climate change on lakes and, finally, we highlight some of the future challenges that we face to improve our capacity for successful prediction.

A spatial modelling framework for assessing climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems: Response of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) biomass to warming water temperature

Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-

Current and future trens in the quality control of pharmaceuticals and biopharmaticals : impacts on Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

[Summary] 2. Roles of quality control in the pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical industries. - 2.1. Pharmaceutical industry. - 2.2. Biopharmaceutical industry. - 2.3. Policy and regulatory. - 2.3.1. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). - 2.3.2. The European Medicine Agency (EMEA). - 2.3.3. The Japanese Ministry of Work, Labor and Welfare (MHLW). - 2.3.4. The Swiss Agency for Therapeutic Products (Swissmedic). - 2.3.5. The International Conference on Harmonization (ICH). - - 3. Types of testing. - 3.1. Microbiological purity tests. - 3.2. Physiochemical tests. - 3.3. Critical to quality steps. - 3.3.1. API starting materials and excipients. - 3.3.2. Intermediates. - 3.3.3. APIs (drug substances) and final drug product. - 3.3.4. Primary and secondary packaging materials fro drug products. - - 4. Manufacturing cost and quality control. - 4.1.1. Pharmaceutical manufacturing cost breakdown. - 4.1.2. Biopharmaceutical manufacturing cost breakdown. - 4.2. Batch failure / rejection / rework / recalls. - - 5. Future trends in the quality control of pharmaceuticals and biopharmaceuticals. - 5.1. Rapid and real time testing. - 5.1.1. Physio-chemicals testing. - 5.1.2. Rapid microbiology methods