Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2010

Spanish version available at the Library

State of the Arctic October 2006

This State of the Arctic Report presents a review of recent data by an international group of scientists who developed a consensus on the information content and reliability. The report highlights data primarily from 2000 to 2005 with a first look at winter 2006, providing an update to some of the records of physical processes discussed in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2004, 2005). Of particular note: • Atmospheric climate patterns are shifting (Fig. 1). The late winter/spring pattern for 2000–2005 had new hot spots in northeast Canada and the East Siberian Sea relative to 1980–1999. Late winter 2006, however, shows a return to earlier climate patterns, with warm temperatures in the extended region near Svalbard. • Ocean salinity and temperature profiles at the North Pole and in the Beaufort Sea, which changed abruptly in the 1990s, show that conditions since 2000 have relaxed toward the pre-1990 climatology, although 2001–2004 has seen an increase in northward ocean heat transport through Bering Strait (Fig. 2), which is thought to impact sea ice loss. • Sea ice extent continues to decrease. The sea ice extent in September 2005 was the minimum observed in summer during the satellite era (beginning in 1979), marking an unprecedented series of extreme ice extent minima beginning in 2002 (Fig. 3). The sea ice extent in March 2006 was also the minimum observed in winter during the satellite era. • Tundra vegetation greenness increased, primarily due to an increase in the abundance of shrubs. Boreal forest vegetation greenness decreased, possibly due to drought conditions (Fig. 4). • There is increasing interest in the stability of the Greenland ice sheet. The velocity of outlet glaciers increased in 2005 relative to 2000 and 1995, but uncertainty remains with regard to the total mass balance. • Permafrost temperatures continue to increase. However, data on changes in the active layer thickness (the relatively thin layer of ground between the surface and permafrost that undergoes seasonal freezing and thawing) are less conclusive. While some of the sites show a barely noticeable increasing trend in the thickness of the active layer, most of them do not. • Globally, 2005 was the warmest year in the instrumental record (beginning in 1880), with the Arctic providing a large contribution toward this increase. Many of the trends documented in the ACIA are continuing, but some are not. Taken collectively, the observations presented in this report indicate that during 2000–2005 the Arctic system showed signs of continued warming. However, there are a few indications that certain elements may be recovering and returning to recent climatological norms (for example, the central Arctic Ocean and some wind patterns). These mixed tendencies further illustrate the sensitivity and complexity of the Arctic physical system. They underline the importance of maintaining and expanding efforts to observe and better understand this important component of the climate system to provide accurate predictions of its future state.

Stable water isotopes of precipitation and firn cores from the northern Antarctic Peninsula region as a proxy for climate reconstruction

In order to investigate the climate variability in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region, this paper focuses on the relationship between stable isotope content of precipitation and firn, and main meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity, sea surface temperature, and sea ice extent). Between 2008 and 2010, we collected precipitation samples and retrieved firn cores from several key sites in this region. We conclude that the deuterium excess oscillation represents a robust indicator of the meteorological variability on a seasonal to sub-seasonal scale. Low absolute deuterium excess values and the synchronous variation of both deuterium excess and air temperature imply that the evaporation of moisture occurs in the adjacent Southern Ocean. The delta O-18-air temperature relationship is complicated and significant only at a (multi)seasonal scale. Backward trajectory calculations show that air-parcels arriving at the region during precipitation events predominantly originate at the South Pacific Ocean and Bellingshausen Sea. These investigations will be used as a calibration for ongoing and future research in the area, suggesting that appropriate locations for future ice core research are located above 600 m a.s.l. We selected the Plateau Laclavere, Antarctic Peninsula as the most promising site for a deeper drilling campaign.

Simulations of glacial/interglacial cycles with simple box-models. The ocean CO2 source during deglaciations

Máster en Oceanografía

State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between similar to 6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between A. D. 1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica, near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multidecadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multidecadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4 degrees +/- 1 degrees C, and sea ice extent will decrease by similar to 30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questins about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earth's climate and oceans.

Circum-Antarctic Coastal Environmental Shifts During the Late Quaternary Reflected by Emerged Marine Deposits

This review assesses the circumpolar occurrence of emerged marine macrofossils and sediments from Antarctic coastal areas in relation to Late Quaternary climate changes. Radiocarbon ages of the macrofossils, which are interpreted in view of the complexities of the Antarctic marine radiocarbon reservoir and resolution of this dating technique, show a bimodal distribution. The data indicate that marine species inhabited coastal environments from at least 35000 to 20000 yr sp, during Marine Isotope Stage 3 when extensive iceberg calving created a 'meltwater lid' over the Southern Ocean. The general absence of these marine species from 20000 to 8500 yr sp coincides with the subsequent advance of the Antarctic ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum. Synchronous re-appearance of the Antarctic marine fossils in emerged beaches around the continent, all of wh ich have Holocene marine-limit elevations an order of magnitude lower than those in the Arctic, reflect minimal isostatic rebound as relative sea-level rise decelerated. Antarctic coastal marine habitat changes around the continent also coincided with increasing sea-ice extent and outlet glacial advances during the mid-Holocene. in view of the diverse environmental changes that occurred around the Earth during this period, it is suggested that Antarctic coastal areas were responding to a mid-Holocene climatic shift associated with the hydrological cycle. This synthesis of Late Quaternary emerged marine deposits demonstrates the application of evaluating circum-Antarctic phenomena from the glacial-terrestrial-marine transition zone.

Glacier advances in northeastern Turkey before and during the global Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract Our study in the Başyayla Valley in northeastern Anatolia showed evidence of four glacier advances that built terminal and lateral moraines. Surface exposure dating of boulders on these moraines showed that the Maximum Ice Extent (MIE) was asynchronous with the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 22.1 ± 4.3 thousand years; ka). The local {MIE} took place at least 57.0 ± 3.5 ka ago. The extent of the Başyayla Glacier during this advance is not known exactly because the boulders are only preserved on a lateral moraine. The next advance was prior to 41.5 ± 2.5 ka, and it descended down the valley to approximately 2320 m above sea level (m a.s.l.), with a glacier length of 5.3 km. During the early global LGM, the Başyayla Glacier extended for a distance of 4.9 km down to approx. 2430 m a.s.l. The last recorded advance occurred during the global LGM. This extension was 0.7 km smaller than the local {MIE} and its terminus reached 2490 m a.s.l. only. The exposure ages of boulders in a retreat position at an altitude of approx. 3045 m a.s.l. indicate that the valley has remained ice-free since the Lateglacial period. Therefore, the Lateglacial extent was limited to the cirque system in the uppermost part of the catchment. Furthermore, Holocene glacier oscillations seem to be either absent or restricted to solifluction in the whole catchment and to rock glacier movements in the southern tributary of the Başyayla Valley system.

Age models, color measurements, and calculated sea surface temperatures of sediment cores from the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk

Past changes in North Pacific sea surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions are proposed to play a crucial role in deglacial climate development and ocean circulation but are less well known than from the North Atlantic. Here, we present new alkenone-based sea surface temperature records from the subarctic northwest Pacific and its marginal seas (Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk) for the time interval of the last 15 kyr, indicating millennial-scale sea surface temperature fluctuations similar to short-term deglacial climate oscillations known from Greenland ice-core records. Past changes in sea-ice distribution are derived from relative percentage of specific diatom groups and qualitative assessment of the IP25 biomarker related to sea-ice diatoms. The deglacial variability in sea-ice extent matches the sea surface temperature fluctuations. These fluctuations suggest a linkage to deglacial variations in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and a close atmospheric coupling between the North Pacific and North Atlantic. During the Holocene the subarctic North Pacific is marked by complex sea surface temperature trends, which do not support the hypothesis of a Holocene seesaw in temperature development between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific.

Diatom assemblages, HBIs and TEXL86 in sediment core NBP99-03_10

The West Antarctic ice sheet is particularly sensitive to global warming and its evolution and impact on global climate over the next few decades remains difficult to predict. In this context, investigating past sea ice conditions around Antarctica is of primary importance. Here, we document changes in sea ice presence, upper water column temperatures (0-200 m) and primary productivity over the last 9000 yr BP (before present) in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) margin from a sedimentary core collected in the Palmer Deep Basin. Employing a multi-proxy approach, based on the combination of two biomarkers proxies (highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) alkenes for sea ice and TEXL86 for temperature) and micropaleontological data (diatom assemblages), we derived new Holocene records of sea ice conditions and upper water column temperatures. The early Holocene (9000-7000 yr BP) was characterized by a cooling phase with a short sea ice season. During the mid-Holocene (~7000-3800 yr BP), local climate evolved towards slightly colder conditions and a prominent extension of the sea ice season occurred, promoting a favorable environment for intensive diatom growth. The late Holocene (the last ~2100 yr) was characterized by warmer temperatures and increased sea ice presence, accompanied by reduced local primary productivity, likely in response to a shorter growing season compared to the early or mid-Holocene. The gradual increase in annual sea ice duration over the last 7000 yr might have been influenced by decreasing mean annual and spring insolation, despite increasing summer insolation. We postulate that, in addition to precessional changes in insolation, seasonal variability, via changes in the strength of the circumpolar Westerlies and upwelling activity, was further amplified by the increasing frequency/amplitude of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, between 3800 and 2100 yr BP, the lack of correlation between ENSO and climate variability in the WAP suggests that other climatic factors might have been more important in controlling WAP climate at this time.

Radiocarbon, isotope, biogenic, and 230Th measurements for sediment core RC10-196

The subarctic North Pacific Ocean holds a large CO2 reservoir that is currently isolated from the atmosphere by a low-salinity layer. It has recently been hypothesized that the reorganization of these high-CO2 waters may have played a crucial role in the degassing of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere during the last deglaciation. This reorganization would leave some imprint on paleo-productivity records. Here we present 230Th-normalized biogenic fluxes from an intermediate depth sediment core in the Northwest Pacific (RC10-196, 54.7°N, 177.1°E, 1007 m) and place them within the context of a synthesis of previously-published biogenic flux data from 49 deep-sea cores north of 20°N, ranging from 420 to 3968 m water depth. The 230Th-normalized opal, carbonate, and organic carbon fluxes from RC10-196 peak approximately 13,000 calendar years BP during the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) period. Our data synthesis suggests that biogenic fluxes were in general lowest during the last glacial period, increased somewhat in the Northwest Pacific during Heinrich Event 1, and reached a maximum across the entire North Pacific during the B/A period. We evaluate several mechanisms as possible drivers of deglacial change in biogenic fluxes in the North Pacific, including changes in preservation, sediment focusing, sea ice extent, iron inputs, stratification, and circulation shifts initiated in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Our analysis suggests that while micronutrient sources likely contributed to some of the observed changes, the heterogeneity in timing of glaciogenic retreat and sea level make these mechanisms unlikely causes of region-wide contemporaneous peaks in export production. We argue that paleo-observations are most consistent with ventilation increases in both the North Pacific (during H1) and North Atlantic (during B/A) being the primary drivers of increases in biogenic flux during the deglaciation, as respectively they were likely to bring nutrients to the surface via increased vertical mixing and shoaling of the global thermocline.

Reconstructed glaciation limits in Eurasia (digitized from map Fig.1)

Based on field investigations in northern Russia and interpretation of offshore seismic data, we have made a preliminary reconstruction of the maximum ice-sheet extent in the Barents and Kara Sea region during the Early/Middle Weichselian and the Late Weichselian. Our investigations indicate that the Barents and Kara ice sheets attained their maximum Weichselian positions in northern Russia prior to 50 000 yr BP, whereas the northeastern flank of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet advanced to a maximum position shortly after 17000 calendar years ago. During the Late Weichselian (25 000-10000 yr BP), much of the Russian Arctic remained ice-free. According to our reconstruction, the extent of the ice sheets in the Barents and Kara Sea region during the Late Weichselian glacial maximum was less than half that of the maximum model which, up to now, has been widely used as a boundary condition for testing and refining General Circulation Models (GCMs). Preliminary numerical-modelling experiments predict Late Weichselian ice sheets which are larger than the ice extent implied for the Kara Sea region from dated geological evidence, suggesting very low precipitation.

Physical properties of sediment cores from the Labrador Sea

Sediment core logs from six sediment cores in the Labrador Sea show millennial-scale climate variability during the last glacial by recording all Heinrich events and several major Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles. The same millennial-scale climate change is documented for surface-water d18O records of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (left coiled); hence the surface-water d18O record can be derived from sediment core logging by means of multiple linear regression, providing a paleoclimate proxy record at very high temporal resolution (70 yrs). For the Labrador Sea, sediment core logs contain important information about deep-water current velocities and also reflect the variable input of IRD from different sources as inferred from grain-size analysis, benthic d18O, the relation of density and p-wave velocity, and magnetic susceptibility. For the last glacial, faster deep-water currents which correspond to highs in sediment physical properties, occurred during iceberg discharge and lasted for a several centuries to a few millennia. Those enhanced currents might have contributed to increased production of intermediate waters during times of reduced production of North Atlantic Deep Water. Hudson Strait might have acted as a major supplier of detrital carbonate only during lowered sea level (greater ice extent). During coldest atmospheric temperatures over Greenland, deep-water currents increased during iceberg discharge in the Labrador Sea, then surface water freshened shortly after, while the abrupt atmospheric temperature rise happened after a larger time lag of >=1 kyr. The correlation implies a strong link and common forcing for atmosphere, sea surface, and deep water during the last glacial at millennial time scales but decoupling at orbital time scales.

Continuous 25-years aerosol records at coastal Antarctica: Part I. Variability and climate implications of ionic compounds

The aerosol climatology at the coastal Antarctic Neumayer Station (NM) was investigated based on continuous, 25-yr long observations of biogenic sulphur components (methanesulfonate and non-sea salt sulphate), sea salt and nitrate. Although significant long-term trends could only be detected for nitrate (-3.6 ± 2.5% per year between 1983 and 1993 and +4.0 ± 3.2% per year from 1993-2007), non-harmonic periodicities between 2 and 5 yr were typical for all species. Dedicated time series analyses revealed that relations to sea ice extent and various circulation indices are weak at best or not significant. In particular, no consistent link between sea ice extent and sea salt loadings was evident suggesting only a rather local relevance of the NM sea salt record. Nevertheless, a higher Southern Annular Mode index tended to entail a lower biogenic sulphur signal. In examining the spatial uniformity of the NM findings we contrasted them to respective 17 yr records from the coastal Dumont d'Urville Station. We found similar long-term trends for nitrate, indicating an Antarctic-wide but not identifiable atmospheric signal, although any significant impact of solar activity or pollution could be ruled out. No inter-site variability on the multiannual scale was evident for the other ionic compounds.

Sediment total reflectance measurements from the Cariaco Basin (MD03-2621) and northeastern Arabian Sea (SO130-289KL)

During the last glacial period, the North Atlantic region experienced pronounced, millennial-scale alternations between cold, stadial conditions and milder interstadial conditions-commonly referred to as Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations-as well as periods of massive iceberg discharge known as Heinrich events. Changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature, as recorded in Greenland, are thought to have affected the location of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone and the strength of the Indian summer monsoon. Here we use high-resolution records of sediment colour-a measure of terrigenous versus biogenic content-from the Cariaco Basin off the coast of Venezuela and the Arabian Sea to assess teleconnections with the North Atlantic climate system during the last glacial period. The Cariaco record indicates that the intertropical convergence zone migrated seasonally over the site during mild stadial conditions, but was permanently displaced south of the basin during peak stadials and Heinrich events. In the Arabian Sea, we find evidence of a weak Indian summer monsoon during the stadial events. The tropical records show a more variable response to North Atlantic cooling than the Greenland temperature records. We therefore suggest that Greenland climate is especially sensitive to variations in the North Atlantic system-in particular sea-ice extent-whereas the intertropical convergence zone and Indian monsoon system respond primarily to variations in mean Northern Hemisphere temperature.

Grain-size distributions of the terrigenous fraction of two deep-sea sediment cores GeoB3375-1 and MD96-2094

In this study, we present grain-size distributions of the terrigenous fraction of two deep-sea sediment cores from the SE Atlantic (offshore Namibia) and from the SE Pacific (offshore northern Chile), which we 'unmix' into subpopulations and which are interpreted as coarse eolian dust, fine eolian dust, and fluvial mud. The downcore ratios of the proportions of eolian dust and fluvial mud subsequently represent paleocontinental aridity records of southwestern Africa and northern Chile for the last 120,000 yr. The two records show a relatively wet Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to a relatively dry Holocene, but different orbital variability on longer time scales. Generally, the northern Chilean aridity record shows higher-frequency changes, which are closely related to precessional variation in solar insolation, compared to the southwestern African aridity record, which shows a remarkable resemblance to the global ice-volume record. We relate the changes in continental aridity in southwestern Africa and northern Chile to changes in the latitudinal position of the moisture-bearing Southern Westerlies, potentially driven by the sea-ice extent around Antarctica and overprinted by tropical forcing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.