Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

A major challenge in this era of rapid climate change is to predict changes in species distributions and their impacts on ecosystems, and, if necessary, to recommend management strategies for maintenance of biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biological invasions, studied in most biomes of the world, can provide useful analogs for some of the ecological consequences of species distribution shifts in response to climate change. Invasions illustrate the adaptive and interactive responses that can occur when species are confronted with new environmental conditions. Invasion ecology complements climate change research and provides insights into the following questions: i) how will species distributions respond to climate change? ii) how will species movement affect recipient ecosystems? and iii) should we, and if so how can we, manage species and ecosystems in the face of climate change? Invasion ecology demonstrates that a trait-based approach can help to predict spread speeds and impacts on ecosystems, and has the potential to predict climate change impacts on species ranges and recipient ecosystems. However, there is a need to analyse traits in the context of life-history and demography, the stage in the colonisation process (e.g., spread, establishment or impact), the distribution of suitable habitats in the landscape, and the novel abiotic and biotic conditions under which those traits are expressed. As is the case with climate change, invasion ecology is embedded within complex societal goals. Both disciplines converge on similar questions of "when to intervene?" and "what to do?" which call for a better understanding of the ecological processes and social values associated with changing ecosystems.

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001.We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling.

Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions

Abiotic factors such as climate and soil determine the species fundamental niche, which is further constrained by biotic interactions such as interspecific competition. To parameterize this realized niche, species distribution models (SDMs) most often relate species occurrence data to abiotic variables, but few SDM studies include biotic predictors to help explain species distributions. Therefore, most predictions of species distributions under future climates assume implicitly that biotic interactions remain constant or exert only minor influence on large-scale spatial distributions, which is also largely expected for species with high competitive ability. We examined the extent to which variance explained by SDMs can be attributed to abiotic or biotic predictors and how this depends on species traits. We fit generalized linear models for 11 common tree species in Switzerland using three different sets of predictor variables: biotic, abiotic, and the combination of both sets. We used variance partitioning to estimate the proportion of the variance explained by biotic and abiotic predictors, jointly and independently. Inclusion of biotic predictors improved the SDMs substantially. The joint contribution of biotic and abiotic predictors to explained deviance was relatively small (similar to 9%) compared to the contribution of each predictor set individually (similar to 20% each), indicating that the additional information on the realized niche brought by adding other species as predictors was largely independent of the abiotic (topo-climatic) predictors. The influence of biotic predictors was relatively high for species preferably growing under low disturbance and low abiotic stress, species with long seed dispersal distances, species with high shade tolerance as juveniles and adults, and species that occur frequently and are dominant across the landscape. The influence of biotic variables on SDM performance indicates that community composition and other local biotic factors or abiotic processes not included in the abiotic predictors strongly influence prediction of species distributions. Improved prediction of species' potential distributions in future climates and communities may assist strategies for sustainable forest management.

Heterogeneous 40Ar* distributions in naturally deformed muscovite: in situ UV-laser ablation evidence for micro structurally controlled intragrain diffusion

Micas are commonly used in Ar-40/Ar-39 thermochronological studies of variably deformed rocks yet the physical basis by which deformation may affect radiogenic argon retention in mica is poorly constrained. This study examines the relationship between deformation and deformation-induced microstructures on radiogenic argon retention in muscovite, A combination of furnace step-heating and high-spatial resolution in situ UV-laser ablation Ar-40/Ar-39 analyses are reported for deformed muscovites sampled from a granitic pegmatite vein within the Siviez-Mischabel Nappe, western Swiss Alps (Penninic domain, Brianconnais unit). The pegmatite forms part of the Variscan (similar to 350 Ma) Alpine basement and exhibits a prominent Alpine S-C fabric including numerous mica `fish' that developed under greenschist facies metamorphic conditions, during the dominant Tertiary Alpine tectonic phase of nappe emplacement. Furnace step-heating of milligram quantities of separated muscovite grains yields an Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectrum with two distinct staircase segments but without any statistical plateau, consistent with a previous study from the same area. A single (3 X 5 mm) muscovite porphyroclast (fish) was investigated by in situ UV-laser ablation. A histogram plot of 170 individual Ar-40/Ar-39 UV-laser ablation ages exhibit a range from 115 to 387 Ma with modes at approximately 340 and 260 Ma. A variogram statistical treatment of the (40)Ad/Ar-39 results reveals ages correlated with two directions; a highly correlated direction at 310 degrees and a lesser correlation at 0 degrees relative to the sense of shearing. Using the highly correlated direction a statistically generated (Kriging method) age contour map of the Ar-40/Ar-39 data reveals a series of elongated contours subparallel to the C-surfaces which where formed during Tertiary nappe emplacement. Similar data distributions and slightly younger apparent ages are recognized in a smaller mica fish. The observed intragrain age variations are interpreted to reflect the partial loss of radiogenic argon during Alpine (similar to 35 Ma) greenschist facies metamorphism. One-dirnensional diffusion modelling results are consistent with the idea that the zones of youngest apparent age represent incipient shear band development within the mica porphyroclasts, thus providing a network of fast diffusion pathways. During Alpine greenschist facies metamorphism the incipient shear bands enhanced the intragrain loss of radiogenic argon. The structurally controlled intragrain age variations observed in this investigation imply that deformation has a direct control on the effective length scale for argon diffusion, which is consistent with the heterogeneous nature of deformation. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The world distribution of income (estimated from individual country distributions)

We estimate the world distribution of income by integrating individualincome distributions for 125 countries between 1970 and 1998. Weestimate poverty rates and headcounts by integrating the density functionbelow the $1/day and $2/day poverty lines. We find that poverty ratesdecline substantially over the last twenty years. We compute povertyheadcounts and find that the number of one-dollar poor declined by 235million between 1976 and 1998. The number of $2/day poor declined by 450million over the same period. We analyze poverty across different regionsand countries. Asia is a great success, especially after 1980. LatinAmerica reduced poverty substantially in the 1970s but progress stoppedin the 1980s and 1990s. The worst performer was Africa, where povertyrates increased substantially over the last thirty years: the number of$1/day poor in Africa increased by 175 million between 1970 and 1998,and the number of $2/day poor increased by 227. Africa hosted 11% ofthe world s poor in 1960. It hosted 66% of them in 1998. We estimatenine indexes of income inequality implied by our world distribution ofincome. All of them show substantial reductions in global incomeinequality during the 1980s and 1990s.

BIOMOD - a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions

BIOMOD is a computer platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, enabling the treatment of a range of methodological uncertainties in models and the examination of species-environment relationships. BIOMOD includes the ability to model species distributions with several techniques, test models with a wide range of approaches, project species distributions into different environmental conditions (e.g. climate or land use change scenarios) and dispersal functions. It allows assessing species temporal turnover, plot species response curves, and test the strength of species interactions with predictor variables. BIOMOD is implemented in R and is a freeware, open source, package

Vertical distributions of plankton in the upper 35m of the peruvian upwelling zone - application of a shipboard electronic plankton counting system

Analiza el proyecto ICANE y suma modificaciones para estudiar la distribución de zooplancton pequeño

Copepod distributions on the Peru shelf at 9° S during november 1977

Analiza las distribuciones de copépodos en la plataforma continental peruana a los 9°S con un contador electrónico de zooplancton.

Spatial and temporal variability of chlorophyll distributions and geostrophic estimates on the Peru shelf at 9°S

Estudio del perfil de la plataforma del Peru a los 9°S. Datos colectados mediante Batfish en zig zag

Horizontal and vertical distributions of zooplanckton numbers and biomass off the coast of Peru

Estudio de las distribuciones horizontales y verticales del zooplancton a lo largo de una línea desde cerca de la costa hasta el borde de la plataforma.

The role of phylogeny in the spatial distributions and assembly of mountain plant communities.

A major challenge in community ecology is a thorough understanding of the processes that govern the assembly and composition of communities in time and space. The growing threat of climate change to the vascular plant biodiversity of fragile ecosystems such as mountains has made it equally imperative to develop comprehensive methodologies to provide insights into how communities are assembled. In this perspective, the primary objective of this PhD thesis is to contribute to the theoretical and methodological development of community ecology, by proposing new solutions to better detect the ecological and evolutionary processes that govern community assembly. As phylogenetic trees provide by far, the most advanced tools to integrate the spatial, ecological and evolutionary dynamics of plant communities, they represent the cornerstone on which this work was based. In this thesis, I proposed new solutions to: (i) reveal trends in community assembly on phylogenies, depicted by the transition of signals at the nodes of the different species and lineages responsible for community assembly, (ii) contribute to evidence the importance of evolutionarily labile traits in the distribution of mountain plant species. More precisely, I demonstrated that phylogenetic and functional compositional turnover in plant communities was driven by climate and human land use gradients mostly influenced by evolutionarily labile traits, (iii) predict and spatially project the phylogenetic structure of communities using species distribution models, to identify the potential distribution of phylogenetic diversity, as well as areas of high evolutionary potential along elevation. The altitudinal setting of the Diablerets mountains (Switzerland) provided an appropriate model for this study. The elevation gradient served as a compression of large latitudinal variations similar to a collection of islands within a single area, and allowed investigations on a large number of plant communities. Overall, this thesis highlights that stochastic and deterministic environmental filtering processes mainly influence the phylogenetic structure of plant communities in mountainous areas. Negative density-dependent processes implied through patterns of phylogenetic overdispersion were only detected at the local scale, whereas environmental filtering implied through phylogenetic clustering was observed at both the regional and local scale. Finally, the integration of indices of phylogenetic community ecology with species distribution models revealed the prospects of providing novel and insightful explanations on the potential distribution of phylogenetic biodiversity in high mountain areas. These results generally demonstrate the usefulness of phylogenies in inferring assembly processes, and are worth considering in the theoretical and methodological development of tools to better understand phylogenetic community structure.

Characterization of intonation in Karṇāṭaka music by parametrizing context-based Svara Distributions

Intonation is a fundamental music concept that has a special relevance in Indian art music. It is characteristic of the rāga and intrinsic to the musical expression of the performer. Describing intonation is of importance to several information retrieval tasks like the development of rāga and artist similarity measures. In our previous work, we proposed a compact representation of intonation based on the parametrization of the pitch histogram of a performance and demonstrated the usefulness of this representation through an explorative rāga recognition task in which we classified 42 vocal performances belonging to 3 rāgas using parameters of a single svara. In this paper, we extend this representation to employ context-based svara distributions, which are obtained with a different approach to find the pitches belonging to each svara. We quantitatively compare this method to our previous one, discuss the advantages, and the necessary melodic analysis to be carried out in future.

Notes on distributions for Argentinean Pentatomidae (Heteroptera: Pentatomoidea), with new records in the country

ABSTRACTIn this contribution, we present new distributional records from Argentina of 63 pentatomid species; three genera (Caonabo, Cromata and Taurocerus) and 14 species (Marmessulus brasiliensis, Podisus crassimargo, Cromata ornata, Acledra haematopa, Caonabo pseudocylax, Dichelops avilapiresi, Euschistus cribarius, E. paranticus, Mormidea maculata, Rio indistinctus, Banasa lanceolata, B. nigrifrons, Pallantia macunaima, and Taurocerus edessoides) are reported for the first time from Argentina; also we provided 81 new province records of another 49 species.