Simple software processes and tests improve the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Models are abstractions of reality that have predetermined limits (often not consciously thought through) on what problem domains the models can be used to explore. These limits are determined by the range of observed data used to construct and validate the model. However, it is important to remember that operating the model beyond these limits, one of the reasons for building the model in the first place, potentially brings unwanted behaviour and thus reduces the usefulness of the model. Our experience with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), a farming systems model, has led us to adapt techniques from the disciplines of modelling and software development to create a model development process. This process is simple, easy to follow, and brings a much higher level of stability to the development effort, which then delivers a much more useful model. A major part of the process relies on having a range of detailed model tests (unit, simulation, sensibility, validation) that exercise a model at various levels (sub-model, model and simulation). To underline the usefulness of testing, we examine several case studies where simulated output can be compared with simple relationships. For example, output is compared with crop water use efficiency relationships gleaned from the literature to check that the model reproduces the expected function. Similarly, another case study attempts to reproduce generalised hydrological relationships found in the literature. This paper then describes a simple model development process (using version control, automated testing and differencing tools), that will enhance the reliability and usefulness of a model.

How weed control and fertilisation influence tree physiological processes and growth at early establishment in an exotic F1 hybrid pine plantation of subtropical Australia

Purpose This study investigated how nitrogen (N) nutrition and key physiological processes varied under changed water and nitrogen competition resulting from different weed control and fertilisation treatments in a 2-year-old F1 hybrid (Pinus elliottii Engelm var. elliottii × P. caribaea var. hondurensis Barr. ex Golf.) plantation on a grey podzolic soil type, in Southeast Queensland. Materials and methods The study integrated a range of measures including growth variables (diameter at ground level (DGL), diameter at breast height (DBH) and height (H)), foliar variables (including foliar N concentration, foliar δ13C and δ15N) and physiological variables (including photosynthesis (An), stomatal conductance (gs), transpiration (E), intrinsic water use efficiency (WUEi) (A/gs) and xylem pressure potential (ΨXPP)) to better understand the mechanisms influencing growth under different weed control and fertilisation treatments. Five levels of weed control were applied: standard (routine), luxury, intermediate, mechanical and nil weed control, all with routine fertilisation plus an additional treatment, routine weed control and luxury fertilisation. Relative weed cover was assessed at 0.8, 1.1 and 1.6 years after plantation establishment to monitor the effectiveness of weed control treatments. Soil investigation included soil ammonium (NH4 +-N), nitrate (NO3 −-N), potentially mineralizable N (PMN), gravimetric soil moisture content (MC), hot water extractable organic carbon (HWETC), hot water extractable total N (HWETN), total C, total N, stable C isotope composition (δ13C), stable N isotope composition (δ15N), total P and extractable K. Results and discussion There were significant relationships between foliar N concentrations and relative weed cover and between tree growth and foliar N concentration or foliar δ15N, but initial site preparation practices also increased soil N transformations in the planting rows reducing the observable effects of weed control on foliar δ15N. A positive relationship between foliar N concentration and foliar δ13C or photosynthesis indicated that increased N availability to trees positively influenced non-stomatal limitations to photosynthesis. However, trees with increased foliar N concentrations and photosynthesis were negatively related to xylem pressure potential in the afternoons which enhanced stomatal limitations to photosynthesis and WUEi. Conclusions Luxury and intermediate weed control and luxury fertilisation positively influenced growth at early establishment by reducing the competition for water and N resources. This influenced fundamental key physiological processes such as the relationships between foliar N concentration, A n, E, gs and ΨXPP. Results also confirmed that time from cultivation is an important factor influencing the effectiveness of using foliar δ15N as an indicator of soil N transformations.

Solutions of Boundary Layer Equations Governing Free Convective and Magnetohydrodynamic Flows through Parametric Differentiation

In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird die Methode der parametrischen Differentiation angewendet, um ein System nichtlinearer Gleichungen zu lösen, das zwei- und dreidimensionale freie, konvektive Grenzschichströmungen bzw. eine zweidimensionale magnetohydrodynamische Grenzschichtströmung beherrscht. Der Hauptvorteil dieser Methode besteht darin, daß die nichlinearen Gleichungen auf lineare reduziert werden und die Nichtlinearität auf ein System von Gleichungen erster Ordnung beschränkt wird, das, verglichen mit den ursprünglichen Nichtlinearen Gleichungen, viel leichter gelöst werden kann. Ein anderer Vorzug der Methode ist, daß sie es ermöglicht, die Lösung von einer bekannten, zu einem bestimmten Parameterwert gehörigen Lösung aus durch schrittweises Vorgehen die Lösung für den gesamten Parameterbereich zu erhalten. Die mit dieser Methode gewonnenen Ergebnisse stimmen gut mit den entsprechenden, mit anderen numerischen Verfahren erzielten überein.

Ecological processes and large-scale climate relationships in northern coniferous forests

Ilmasto vaikuttaa ekologisiin prosesseihin eri tasoilla. Suuren mittakaavan ilmastoprosessit, yhdessä ilmakehän ja valtamerien kanssa, säätelevät paikallisia sääilmiöitä suurilla alueilla (mantereista pallopuoliskoihin). Tämä väistöskirja pyrkii selittämään kuinka suuren mittakaavan ilmasto on vaikuttanut tiettyihin ekologisiin prosesseihin pohjoisella havumetsäalueella. Valitut prosessit olivat puiden vuosilustojen kasvu, metsäpalojen esiintyminen ja vuoristomäntykovakuoriaisen aiheuttamat puukuolemat. Suuren mittakaavan ilmaston löydettiin vaikuttaneen näiden prosessien esiintymistiheyteen, kestoon ja levinneisyyteen keskeisten sään muuttujien välityksellä hyvin laajoilla alueilla. Tutkituilla prosesseilla oli vahva yhteys laajan mittakaavan ilmastoon. Yhteys on kuitenkin ollut hyvin dynaaminen ja muuttunut 1900-luvulla ilmastonmuutoksen aiheuttaessa muutoksia suuren mittakaavan ja alueellisten ilmastoprosessien välisiin sisäisiin suhteisiin.

Organizational competencies and dynamic Accounting Information System capability: Impact on AIS processes and firm performance

Accounting information systems (AIS) capture and process accounting data and provide valuable information for decision-makers. However, in a rapidly changing environment, continual management of the AIS is necessary for organizations to optimise performance outcomes. We suggest that building a dynamic AIS capability enables accounting process and organizational performance. Using the dynamic capabilities framework (Teece 2007) we propose that a dynamic AIS capability can be developed through the synergy of three competencies: a flexible AIS, having a complementary business intelligence system and accounting professionals with IT technical competency. Using survey data, we find evidence of a positive association between a dynamic AIS capability, accounting process performance, and overall firm performance. The results suggest that developing a dynamic AIS resource can add value to an organization. This study provides guidance for organizations looking to leverage the performance outcomes of their AIS environment.

Standardization efforts: The relationship between knowledge dimensions, search processes and innovation outcomes

We explore how a standardization effort (i.e., when a firm pursues standards to further innovation) involves different search processes for knowledge and innovation outcomes. Using an inductive case study of Vanke, a leading Chinese property developer, we show how varying degrees of knowledge complexity and codification combine to produce a typology of four types of search process: active, integrative, decentralized and passive, resulting in four types of innovation outcome: modular, radical, incremental and architectural. We argue that when the standardization effort in a firm involves highly codified knowledge, incremental and architectural innovation outcomes are fostered, while modular and radical innovations are hindered. We discuss how standardization efforts can result in a second-order innovation capability, and conclude by calling for comparative research in other settings to understand how standardization efforts can be suited to different types of search process in different industry contexts.

Compressible magnetohydrodynamic boundary layer swirling nozzle and diffuser flows with a magnetic field

The flow, heat and mass transfer problem for boundary layer swirling flow of a laminar steady compressible electrically conducting gas with variable properties through a conical nozzle and a diffuser with an applied magnetic field has been studied. The partial differential equations governing the flow have been solved numerically using an implicit finite-difference scheme after they have been transformed into dimensionless form using the modified Lees transformation. The results indicate that the skin friction and heat transfer strongly depend on the magnetic field, mass transfer and variation of the density-viscosity product across the boundary layer. However, the effect of the variation of the density-viscosity product is more pronounced in the case of a nozzle than in the case of a diffuser. It has been found that large swirl is required to produce strong effect on the skin friction and heat transfer. Separationless flow along the entire length of the diffuser can be obtained by applying appropriate amount of suction. The results are found to be in good agreement with those of the local nonsimilarity method, but they differ quite significantly from those of the local similarity method.

Substance flow analysis in Finland : Four case studies on N and P flows

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms. However, in excess, they contribute to several environmental problems such as aquatic and terrestrial eutrophication. Globally, human action has multiplied the volume of N and P cycling since the onset of industrialization. The multiplication is a result of intensified agriculture, increased energy consumption and population growth. Industrial ecology (IE) is a discipline, in which human interaction with the ecosystems is investigated using a systems analytical approach. The main idea behind IE is that industrial systems resemble ecosystems, and, like them, industrial systems can then be described using material, energy and information flows and stocks. Industrial systems are dependent on the resources provided by the biosphere, and these two cannot be separated from each other. When studying substance flows, the aims of the research from the viewpoint of IE can be, for instance, to elucidate the ways how the cycles of a certain substance could be more closed and how the flows of a certain substance could be decreased per unit of production (= dematerialization). In Finland, N and P are studied widely in different ecosystems and environmental emissions. A holistic picture comparing different societal systems is, however, lacking. In this thesis, flows of N and P were examined in Finland using substance flow analysis (SFA) in the following four subsystems: I) forest industry and use of wood fuels, II) food production and consumption, III) energy, and IV) municipal waste. A detailed analysis at the end of the 1990s was performed. Furthermore, historical development of the N and P flows was investigated in the energy system (III) and the municipal waste system (IV). The main research sources were official statistics, literature, monitoring data, and expert knowledge. The aim was to identify and quantify the main flows of N and P in Finland in the four subsystems studied. Furthermore, the aim was to elucidate whether the nutrient systems are cyclic or linear, and to identify how these systems could be more efficient in the use and cycling of N and P. A final aim was to discuss how this type of an analysis can be used to support decision-making on environmental problems and solutions. Of the four subsystems, the food production and consumption system and the energy system created the largest N flows in Finland. For the creation of P flows, the food production and consumption system (Paper II) was clearly the largest, followed by the forest industry and use of wood fuels and the energy system. The contribution of Finland to N and P flows on a global scale is low, but when compared on a per capita basis, we are one of the largest producers of these flows, with relatively high energy and meat consumption being the main reasons. Analysis revealed the openness of all four systems. The openness is due to the high degree of internationality of the Finnish markets, the large-scale use of synthetic fertilizers and energy resources and the low recycling rate of many waste fractions. Reduction in the use of fuels and synthetic fertilizers, reorganization of the structure of energy production, reduced human intake of nutrients and technological development are crucial in diminishing the N and P flows. To enhance nutrient recycling and replace inorganic fertilizers, recycling of such wastes as wood ash and sludge could be promoted. SFA is not usually sufficiently detailed to allow specific recommendations for decision-making to be made, but it does yield useful information about the relative magnitude of the flows and may reveal unexpected losses. Sustainable development is a widely accepted target for all human action. SFA is one method that can help to analyse how effective different efforts are in leading to a more sustainable society. SFA's strength is that it allows a holistic picture of different natural and societal systems to be drawn. Furthermore, when the environmental impact of a certain flow is known, the method can be used to prioritize environmental policy efforts.

Modeling Nonlinearities and Asymmetries in Asset Pricing

Financial time series tend to behave in a manner that is not directly drawn from a normal distribution. Asymmetries and nonlinearities are usually seen and these characteristics need to be taken into account. To make forecasts and predictions of future return and risk is rather complicated. The existing models for predicting risk are of help to a certain degree, but the complexity in financial time series data makes it difficult. The introduction of nonlinearities and asymmetries for the purpose of better models and forecasts regarding both mean and variance is supported by the essays in this dissertation. Linear and nonlinear models are consequently introduced in this dissertation. The advantages of nonlinear models are that they can take into account asymmetries. Asymmetric patterns usually mean that large negative returns appear more often than positive returns of the same magnitude. This goes hand in hand with the fact that negative returns are associated with higher risk than in the case where positive returns of the same magnitude are observed. The reason why these models are of high importance lies in the ability to make the best possible estimations and predictions of future returns and for predicting risk.

Generators contribution towards loads and line flows - A case study

n many parts of the world, the goal of electricity supply industries is always the introduction of competition and a lowering of the average consumer price. Because of this it has become much more important to be able to determine which generators are supplying a particular load, how much use each generator is making of a transmission line and what is generator's contribution to the system losses. In this paper a case study on generator contributions towards loads and transmission flows are illustrated with an equivalent 11-bus system, a part of Indian Southern Grid, based on the concepts of circuit flow directions, for normal and network contingency conditions.

Critical age-dependent branching Markov processes and their scaling limits

This paper studies:(i)the long-time behaviour of the empirical distribution of age and normalized position of an age-dependent critical branching Markov process conditioned on non-extinction;and (ii) the super-process limit of a sequence of age-dependent critical branching Brownian motions.

Studies on Unsteady Pressure Fields in the Region of Separating and Reattaching Flows

Experimental studies on the measurement of pressure fields in the region of separating and reattaching flows behind several two-dimensional fore-bodies and one axisymmetric body are reported. In particular, extensive measurements of mean pressure, surface pressure fluctuation, and pressure fluctuation within the flow were made for a series of two-dimensional fore-body shapes consisting of triangular nose with varying included angle. The measurements from different bodies are compared and one of the important findings is that the maximum values of rms pressure fluctuation levels in the shear layer approaching reattachment are almost equal to the maximum value of the surface fluctuation levels.

Indian Ocean Dipole: Processes and impacts

Equatorial Indian Ocean is warmer in the east, has a deeper thermocline and mixed layer, and supports a more convective atmosphere than in the west. During certain years, the eastern Indian Ocean becomes unusually cold, anomalous winds blow from east to west along the equator and southeastward off the coast of Sumatra, thermocline and mixed layer lift up and the atmospheric convection gets suppressed. At the same time, western Indian Ocean becomes warmer and enhances atmospheric convection. This coupled ocean-atmospheric phenomenon in which convection, winds, sea surface temperature (SST) and thermocline take part actively is known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Propagation of baroclinic Kelvin and Rossby waves excited by anomalous winds, play an important role in the development of SST anomalies associated with the IOD. Since mean thermocline in the Indian Ocean is deep compared to the Pacific, it was believed for a long time that the Indian Ocean is passive and merely responds to the atmospheric forcing. Discovery of the IOD and studies that followed demonstrate that the Indian Ocean can sustain its own intrinsic coupled ocean-atmosphere processes. About 50% percent of the IOD events in the past 100 years have co-occurred with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the other half independently. Coupled models have been able to reproduce IOD events and process experiments by such models – switching ENSO on and off – support the hypothesis based on observations that IOD events develop either in the presence or absence of ENSO. There is a general consensus among different coupled models as well as analysis of data that IOD events co-occurring during the ENSO are forced by a zonal shift in the descending branch of Walker cell over to the eastern Indian Ocean. Processes that initiate the IOD in the absence of ENSO are not clear, although several studies suggest that anomalies of Hadley circulation are the most probable forcing function. Impact of the IOD is felt in the vicinity of Indian Ocean as well as in remote regions. During IOD events, biological productivity of the eastern Indian Ocean increases and this in turn leads to death of corals over a large area.Moreover, the IOD affects rainfall over the maritime continent, Indian subcontinent, Australia and eastern Africa. The maritime continent and Australia suffer from deficit rainfall whereas India and east Africa receive excess. Despite the successful hindcast of the 2006 IOD by a coupled model, forecasting IOD events and their implications to rainfall variability remains a major challenge as understanding reasons behind an increase in frequency of IOD events in recent decades.