Factors affecting the accuracy of engineers' estimates

Emerging sciences, such as conceptual cost estimating, seem to have to go through two phases. The first phase involves reducing the field of study down to its basic ingredients - from systems development to technological development (techniques) to theoretical development. The second phase operates in the direction in building up techniques from theories, and systems from techniques. Cost estimating is clearly and distinctly still in the first phase. A great deal of effort has been put into the development of both manual and computer based cost estimating systems during this first phase and, to a lesser extent, the development of a range of techniques that can be used (see, for instance, Ashworth & Skitmore, 1986). Theoretical developments have not, as yet, been forthcoming. All theories need the support of some observational data and cost estimating is not likely to be an exception. These data do not need to be complete in order to build theories. As it is possible to construct an image of a prehistoric animal such as the brontosaurus from only a few key bones and relics, so a theory of cost estimating may possibly be found on a few factual details. The eternal argument of empiricists and deductionists is that, as theories need factual support, so do we need theories in order to know what facts to collect. In cost estimating, the basic facts of interest concern accuracy, the cost of achieving this accuracy, and the trade off between the two. When cost estimating theories do begin to emerge, it is highly likely that these relationships will be central features. This paper presents some of the facts we have been able to acquire regarding one part of this relationship - accuracy, and its influencing factors. Although some of these factors, such as the amount of information used in preparing the estimate, will have cost consequences, we have not yet reached the stage of quantifying these costs. Indeed, as will be seen, many of the factors do not involve any substantial cost considerations. The absence of any theory is reflected in the arbitrary manner in which the factors are presented. Rather, the emphasis here is on the consideration of purely empirical data concerning estimating accuracy. The essence of good empirical research is to .minimize the role of the researcher in interpreting the results of the study. Whilst space does not allow a full treatment of the material in this manner, the principle has been adopted as closely as possible to present results in an uncleaned and unbiased way. In most cases the evidence speaks for itself. The first part of the paper reviews most of the empirical evidence that we have located to date. Knowledge of any work done, but omitted here would be most welcome. The second part of the paper presents an analysis of some recently acquired data pertaining to this growing subject.

Conflict and communication among engineers

The trend of cultural diversity is increasing in all organizations, especially engineering ones, due to globalization, mergers, joint ventures and the movement of the workforce. The collaborative nature of projects in engineering industries requires long-term teamwork between local and international engineers. Research confirms a specific culture among engineering companies that isassumed to have a negative effect on collaboration and communication among co-workers. Multicultural workplaces have been reported as challenging environments in the engineering work culture, which calls for more research among engineering organizations. An everyday challenge for co-workers, especially in culturally diverse contexts, is handling interpersonal conflict. This perceived conflict among individuals can happen because of actual differences in tasks or relationships. Research demonstrates that task conflict at the group level has some positive effects on decision-making and innovation, while it has negative effects on employees’ work attitude and performance. However, relationship conflict at the individual level has only negative effects including frustration, tension, low job satisfaction, high employee turnover and low productivity. Outcomes of both task and relationship conflict at individual level can have long-term negative consequences like damaged organizational commitment. One of the most important sources of differences between individuals, which results in conflict, is their cultural backgrounds. First, this thesis suggests that in culturally diverse workplaces, people perceive more relationship conflict than task conflict. Second, this thesis examines interpersonal communication in culturally diverse work places. Communicating effectively in culturally diverse workplaces is crucial for today’s business. Culture has a large effect on the ways that people communicate with each other. Ineffective communication can escalate interpersonal conflict and cause frustration in the long term. Communication satisfaction, defined as enjoying the communication and feeling that the communication was appropriate and effective, has a positive effect on individuals’ psychological wellbeing. In a culturally diverse workplace, it is assumed that individuals feel less satisfied with their interpersonal communications because of their lack of knowledge about other cultures’ communication norms. To manage interpersonal interactions, many authors suggest that individuals need a specific capability, i.e., cultural intelligence (some studies use cultural competence, global intelligence or intercultural competence interchangeably). Some authors argue that cultures are synergic and convergent and the postmodernist definition of culture is just our dominant beliefs. However, other authors suggest that cultural intelligence is the strongest and most comprehensive competency for managing cross-cultural interactions, because various cultures differ so greatly at the micro level. This thesis argues that individuals with a high level of cultural intelligence perceive less interpersonal conflict and more satisfaction with their interpersonal communication. Third, this thesis also looks at individuals' perception of cultural diversity. It is suggested that level of cultural diversity plays a moderating role on all of the proposed relationships (effect of cultural intelligence on perception of relationship conflict/ communication satisfaction) This thesis examines the relationship among cultural diversity, cultural intelligence, interpersonal conflict and communication by surveying eleven companies in the oil and gas industry. The multicultural nature of companies within the oil and gas industry and the characteristics of engineering culture call for more in-depth research on interpersonal interactions. A total of 286 invitation emails were sent and 118 respondents replied to the survey, giving a 41.26 per cent response rate. All the respondents were engineers, engineering managers or practical technicians. The average age of the participants was 36.93 years and 58.82 per cent were male. Overall, 47.6 per cent of the respondents had at least a master’s degree. Totally, 42.85 per cent of the respondents were working in a country that was not their country of birth. The overall findings reveal that cultural diversity and cultural intelligence significantly influence interpersonal conflict and communication satisfaction. Further, this thesis also finds that cultural intelligence is an effective competency for dealing with the perception of interpersonal relationship conflict and communication satisfaction when the level of cultural diversity is moderate to high. This thesis suggests that cultural intelligence training is necessary to increase the level of this competency among employees in order to help them to have better understanding of other cultures. Human resource management can design these training courses with consideration for the level of cultural diversity within the organization.

Determination of vertical hydraulic conductivity of aquitards in a multilayered leaky system using water-level signals in adjacent aquifers

This paper presents a methodology for determining the vertical hydraulic conductivity (Kv) of an aquitard, in a multilayered leaky system, based on the harmonic analysis of arbitrary water-level fluctuations in aquifers. As a result, Kv of the aquitard is expressed as a function of the phase-shift of water-level signals measured in the two adjacent aquifers. Based on this expression, we propose a robust method to calculate Kv by employing linear regression analysis of logarithm transformed frequencies and phases. The frequencies, where the Kv are calculated, are identified by coherence analysis. The proposed methods are validated by a synthetic case study and are then applied to the Westbourne and Birkhead aquitards, which form part of a five-layered leaky system in the Eromanga Basin, Australia.

Developing research skills for civil engineers: A library contribution

A course-integrated programme of library instruction has been developed for the School of Civil Engineering at the Queensland University of Technology, Australia; library instruction being one of the means selected to improve the research efforts of fourth year project students. The programme has been developed through consultation between the Civil Engineering Research Project Coordinator and the Civil Engineering Reference Librarian. Its aims are derived from those established for the fourth year research projects. Attention is focussed on the nature of the programme and the impact of instruction on fourth year research project students. Students who had received extended library instruction were compared with students from the previous year. Evidence suggests that the instruction has improved the information seeking behaviour of the students and their literature reviews.

Role of hydraulic factors in constructed wetland and bioretention basin treatment performance

This research project contributed to the in-depth understanding of the influence of hydrologic and hydraulic factors on the stormwater treatment performance of constructed wetlands and bioretention basins in the "real world". The project was based on the comprehensive monitoring of a Water Sensitive Urban Design treatment train in the field and underpinned by complex multivariate statistical analysis. The project outcomes revealed that the reduction in pollutant concentrations were consistent in the constructed wetland, but was highly variable in the bioretention basin to a range of influential factors. However, due to the significant amount retention within the filter media, all pollutant loadings were reduced in the bioretention basin.

The “Engineers without Borders” Challenge : does it engage Australian and New Zealand students with sustainability?

This paper explores the rationale, experience and impact of thirteen Australia and New Zealand universities that have integrated the Engineers Without Borders (EWB) challenge into their first year engineering curriculum. EWB is a national competition for university students, who work in teams to develop conceptual designs for real sustainable development projects across the globe. This project investigated “what works and what doesn’t” in engineering curriculum renewal, utilising content analysis, multiple in-depth interviews with students and staff (coordinators, lecturers, tutors) and observation. EWB comprises between 25 to 100% of the total assessment items. This paper specifically focuses on student’s experience of EWB, documenting how the project teaches sustainability and systems-thinking approaches, engages students with different cultures, and fosters teamwork, new ways of thinking and communication skills. We identify key benefits and challenges of EWB, as well as mechanisms and contexts that foster student engagement and learning outcomes.

Hydraulic instability onset detection in Kaplan turbines by monitoring shaft vibrations

Design of hydraulic turbines has often to deal with hydraulic instability. It is well-known that Francis and Kaplan types present hydraulic instability in their design power range. Even if modern CFD tools may help to define these dangerous operating conditions and optimize runner design, hydraulic instabilities may fortuitously arise during the turbine life and should be timely detected in order to assure a long-lasting operating life. In a previous paper, the authors have considered the phenomenon of helical vortex rope, which happens at low flow rates when a swirling flow, in the draft tube conical inlet, occupies a large portion of the inlet. In this condition, a strong helical vortex rope appears. The vortex rope causes mechanical effects on the runner, on the whole turbine and on the draft tube, which may eventually produce severe damages on the turbine unit and whose most evident symptoms are vibrations. The authors have already shown that vibration analysis is suitable for detecting vortex rope onset, thanks to an experimental test campaign performed during the commissioning of a 23 MW Kaplan hydraulic turbine unit. In this paper, the authors propose a sophisticated data driven approach to detect vortex rope onset at different power load, based on the analysis of the vibration signals in the order domain and introducing the so-called "residual order spectrogram", i.e. an order-rotation representation of the vibration signal. Some experimental test runs are presented and the possibility to detect instability onset, especially in real-time, is discussed.

A multi-scaling approach to predict hydraulic damage of poromaterials

The purpose of this paper is to introduce the concept of hydraulic damage and its numerical integration. Unlike the common phenomenological continuum damage mechanics approaches, the procedure introduced in this paper relies on mature concepts of homogenization, linear fracture mechanics, and thermodynamics. The model is applied to the problem of fault reactivation within resource reservoirs. The results show that propagation of weaknesses is highly driven by the contrasts of properties in porous media. In particular, it is affected by the fracture toughness of host rocks. Hydraulic damage is diffused when it takes place within extended geological units and localized at interfaces and faults.

How do you ‘teach’ sustainability to engineers? introducing the engineering sustainable solutions program

Environmental engineers are increasingly being required to have knowledge about sustainability in their professional careers. Accreditation mechanisms for including sustainability in degree program requirements exist and are gradually being implemented by Engineers Australia. However, true integration of sustainability material into higher and vocational education curricula is still low, particularly outside the environmental engineering degree programs. In addition to environmental engineering, it is crucial for engineering across the specialisations, to be exposed to sustainability concepts and theories. This paper will demonstrate how sustainability as a ‘critical literacy’ can be designed for teaching within mainstream engineering education, using a current Australian project as a case study. The project demonstrates that sustainability education for all engineers is not only possible, but that there is international interest in collaborating in such an educational initiative. A pilot trial of the Introductory Module was undertaken in Semester 1 2004 and Version 2 trials are now proceeding with a number of universities and organisations nationally and internationally. Further modules are currently being developed in collaboration with Engineers Australia and UNESCO. The program is a finalist in the 2005 Banksia Awards (Category 11, Environmental Leadership Education and Training).

Complete and competent engineers : a coaching model to developing holistic graduates

The growing gap between engineering practice and engineering has been identified at the level of certain essential skills needed among practising engineers but not developed through the current education system. Coaching approach to learning and teaching has been proven to be an effective way to develop people in the workplace. A pilot coaching program is proposed to engineering students at Queensland University of Technology to enable holistic growth in order to better integrate them to the work force and society at large. The success measures and insights gained will be published on completion of the program. It is hoped that the outcomes of this study will better inform curriculum design and development in the engineering disciplines towards better transition between engineering education and engineering practice.

Analysis and modelling of the hydraulic conductivity in aquitards : application to the Galilee Basin and the Great Artesian Basin, Australia

In large sedimentary basins with layers of different rocks, the groundwater flow between aquifers depends on the hydraulic conductivity (K) of the separating low-permeable rocks, or aquitards. Three methods were developed to evaluate K in aquitards for areas with limited field data: • Coherence and harmonic analysis: estimates the regional-scale K based on water-level fluctuations in adjacent aquifers. • Cokriging and Bayes' rule: infers K from downhole geophysical logs. • Fluvial process model: reproduces the lithology architecture of sediment formations which can be converted to K. These proposed methods enable good estimates of K and better planning of further drillholes.

What do young Australian engineers want? Strategies to attract this talent to less glamorous industries

Chapters in Book 1 of this two-volume set explored literature pertaining to the shortage of engineers in Australia, the ageing engineering workforce, issues of skilled migration, and career development and pathways. The companion chapter to this one in Book 1 explored attraction and image issues of certain industries that required a pipeline of engineers. This chapter will reflect on our research with final-year engineering students in Australian universities and TAFE colleges regarding their career aspirations, industries and/or organisations that they identify as attractive employers, and their perceptions of a low-profile industry, namely the Australian rail industry. This chapter will also discuss specific, evidence-based strategies and activities to enhance the image and attraction of low-profile industries.

Hydraulic conductivity fields: Gaussian or not?

Hydraulic conductivity (K) fields are used to parameterize groundwater flow and transport models. Numerical simulations require a detailed representation of the K field, synthesized to interpolate between available data. Several recent studies introduced high-resolution K data (HRK) at the Macro Dispersion Experiment (MADE) site, and used ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to delineate the main structural features of the aquifer. This paper describes a statistical analysis of these data, and the implications for K field modeling in alluvial aquifers. Two striking observations have emerged from this analysis. The first is that a simple fractional difference filter can have a profound effect on data histograms, organizing non-Gaussian ln K data into a coherent distribution. The second is that using GPR facies allows us to reproduce the significantly non-Gaussian shape seen in real HRK data profiles, using a simulated Gaussian ln K field in each facies. This illuminates a current controversy in the literature, between those who favor Gaussian ln K models, and those who observe non-Gaussian ln K fields. Both camps are correct, but at different scales.

Hydrostratigraphic analysis of the MADE site with full-resolution GPR and direct-push hydraulic profiling

Full-resolution 3D Ground-Penetrating Radar (GPR) data were combined with high-resolution hydraulic conductivity (K) data from vertical Direct-Push (DP) profiles to characterize a portion of the highly heterogeneous MAcro Dispersion Experiment (MADE) site. This is an important first step to better understand the influence of aquifer heterogeneities on observed anomalous transport. Statistical evaluation of DP data indicates non-normal distributions that have much higher similarity within each GPR facies than between facies. The analysis of GPR and DP data provides high-resolution estimates of the 3D geometry of hydrostratigraphic zones, which can then be populated with stochastic K fields. The lack of such estimates has been a significant limitation for testing and parameterizing a range of novel transport theories at sites where the traditional advection-dispersion model has proven inadequate.