A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Inverse aerodynamic design applications using the MGM hybrid formulation

The well-known modified Garabedian-Mcfadden (MGM) method is an attractive alternative for aerodynamic inverse design, for its simplicity and effectiveness (P. Garabedian and G. Mcfadden, Design of supercritical swept wings, AIAA J. 20(3) (1982), 289-291; J.B. Malone, J. Vadyak, and L.N. Sankar, Inverse aerodynamic design method for aircraft components, J. Aircraft 24(2) (1987), 8-9; Santos, A hybrid optimization method for aerodynamic design of lifting surfaces, PhD Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1993). Owing to these characteristics, the method has been the subject of several authors over the years (G.S. Dulikravich and D.P. Baker, Aerodynamic shape inverse design using a Fourier series method, in AIAA paper 99-0185, AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, Reno, NV, January 1999; D.H. Silva and L.N. Sankar, An inverse method for the design of transonic wings, in 1992 Aerospace Design Conference, No. 92-1025 in proceedings, AIAA, Irvine, CA, February 1992, 1-11; W. Bartelheimer, An Improved Integral Equation Method for the Design of Transonic Airfoils and Wings, AIAA Inc., 1995). More recently, a hybrid formulation and a multi-point algorithm were developed on the basis of the original MGM. This article discusses applications of those latest developments for airfoil and wing design. The test cases focus on wing-body aerodynamic interference and shock wave removal applications. The DLR-F6 geometry is picked as the baseline for the analysis.

Inheritance of resistance to Puccinia psidii G. Winter in a eucalyptus interspecific hybrid progeny evaluated under conditions of natural infection

Inheritance of resistance to Puccinia psidii G. Winter in a eucalyptus interspecific hybrid progeny evaluated under conditions of natural infection Rust caused by the fungus Puccinia psidii is currently the most important disease of eucalyptus. It is widely disseminated in Brazil, and causes serious damage in nurseries and plantation areas. The identification of resistant germplasm along with knowledge of the genetic basis of resistance heredity are the first requirements for the success of breeding programs aiming to develop resistant varieties. Earlier studies carried out under controlled conditions suggested a monogenic control as well as the participation of at least two genes promoting resistance to rust. The goal of this study was to evaluate the resistance to P. psidii under field conditions in fourteen progenies from controlled crosses and self-crosses among four hybrid clones of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden x Eucalyptus urophylla ST Blake that contrast for resistance to the fungus. Results indicated that resistance could be explained by one locus with main effects and at least three different alleles. However, loci with minor effects may influence the resistance, since variation on severity classes was observed. Differences in segregation of resistance between reciprocal crosses were not observed, indicating absence of cytoplasmic effects.

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390. This work aims to characterize the water use of maize hybrid DKB 390 under suitable conditions of irrigation for both sufficient and below-optimal situations of nitrogen supply. Crop coefficient values for different stages are also presented as a result, in order to provide the basis for crop water budget and management throughout the cycle. A field experiment was carried Out during the main season, in which biomass, soil moisture, leaf area, climate data and light transmittance were evaluated. These have allowed deriving water balance, use and efficiency. The mentioned genotype requires around 600 nun for high yield targets, being less efficient when led under below-optimal nitrogen fertilization.

Synthesis of Cyclic Guanidine Intermediates of Anatoxin-a(s) in Both Racemic and Enantiomerically Pure Forms

The alkyl chain of anatoxin-a(s) (cyclic guanidines), which can be used as an intermediate in the total synthesis of anatoxin-a(s), was synthesized in both racemic and enantiomerically pure forms. These enantiomerically pure cyclic compounds can be used as chiral inductors in some reactions. The two racemic routes disclosed herein have the advantages of high overall yield and mild reaction conditions. Both routes proceed through an intermediate 2,3-diaminoacid - an important synthetic scaffold - with good yields. Furthermore, the N,N-dimethyl-2(tosylimino)imidazolidine-4-carboxamide might be obtained from 2-(tosylimino)imidazolidine-4-carboxylic acid followed by selective reduction of the carbonyl functionality. All synthesized compounds were analyzed by mass spectrometry and (1)H NMR and (13)C NMR spectroscopy.

Monocyte-derived dendritic cells from patients with severe forms of chromoblastomycosis induce CD4(+) T cell activation in vitro

Dendritic cells (DCs) have been described as initiators and modulators of the immune response. Recently we have shown a predominant production of interleukin-10 cytokine, low levels of interferon-gamma and inefficient T cell proliferation in patients with severe forms of chromoblastomycosis. Chromoblastomycosis starts with subcutaneous inoculation of Fonsecaea pedrosoi into tissue where DCs are the first line of defence against this microorganism. In the present study, the interaction of F. pedrosoi and DCs obtained from patients with chromoblastomycosis was investigated. Our results showed that DCs from patients exhibited an increased expression of human leucocyte antigen D-related (HLA-DR) and co-stimulatory molecules. In the presence of conidia, the expression of HLA-DR and CD86 was up-regulated by DCs from patients and controls. Finally, we demonstrate the reversal of antigen-specific anergy and a T helper type 1 response mediated by DCs incubated with F. pedrosoi conidea.

Standing wave bed forms at Plage de la Grande Roche, le Verdelet, Pléneuf-Val-André, Cote d’Armor (France)

Coastal Photograph by Hubert Chanson This photograph of standing wave bed forms was taken at very low tide. The tidal range was 10 m. The bed forms were located on the island of Le Verdelet, in a channel between Le Grande Jaune and Le Verdelet. It is likely that these standing wave bed forms were formed during transcritical shallow water flows at the end of ebb tide. The author’s watch is in the foreground for scale. (Coastal Photograph by Hubert Chanson, Division of Civil Engineering, the University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia.)

Local adaptation and species segregation in two mussel (Mytilus edulis X M. trossulus) hybrid zones

Few marine hybrid zones have been studied extensively, the major exception being the hybrid zone between the mussels Mytilus edulis and M. galloprovincialis in southwestern Europe. Here, we focus on two less studied hybrid zones that also involve Mytilus spp.; M. edulis and M. trossulus are sympatric and hybridize on both western and eastern coasts of the Atlantic Ocean. We review the dynamics of hybridization in these two hybrid zones and evaluate the role of local adaptation for maintaining species boundaries. In Scandinavia, hybridization and gene introgression is so extensive that no individuals with pure M. trossulus genotypes have been found. However, M. trossulus alleles are maintained at high frequencies in the extremely low salinity Baltic Sea for some allozyme genes. A synthesis of reciprocal transplantation experiments between different salinity regimes shows that unlinked Gpi and Pgm alleles change frequency following transplantation, such that post-transplantation allelic composition resembles native populations found in the same salinity. These experiments provide strong evidence for salinity adaptation at Gpi and Pgm (or genes linked to them). In the Canadian Maritimes, pure M. edulis and M. trossulus individuals are abundant, and limited data suggest that M. edulis predominates in low salinity and sheltered conditions, whereas M. trossulus are more abundant on the wave-exposed open coasts. We suggest that these conflicting patterns of species segregation are, in part, caused by local adaptation of Scandinavian M. trossulus to the extremely low salinity Baltic Sea environment.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

A hybrid planning method for transmission networks in a deregulated environment

The reconstruction of power industries has brought fundamental changes to both power system operation and planning. This paper presents a new planning method using multi-objective optimization (MOOP) technique, as well as human knowledge, to expand the transmission network in open access schemes. The method starts with a candidate pool of feasible expansion plans. Consequent selection of the best candidates is carried out through a MOOP approach, of which multiple objectives are tackled simultaneously, aiming at integrating the market operation and planning as one unified process in context of deregulated system. Human knowledge has been applied in both stages to ensure the selection with practical engineering and management concerns. The expansion plan from MOOP is assessed by reliability criteria before it is finalized. The proposed method has been tested with the IEEE 14-bus system and relevant analyses and discussions have been presented.

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative forms of hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands

Considerable resources have been expended promoting hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes to farmers in the Philippine uplands. Despite the resources committed to research and extension, persistent adoption by farmers has been limited to low cost versions of the technology including natural vegetation and grass strips. In this paper, cost-benefit analysis is used to compare the economic returns from traditional open-field maize farming with returns from intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows, natural vegetation strips and grass strips. An erosion/productivity model, Soil Changes Under Agroforestry, was used to predict the effect of erosion on maize yields. Key informant surveys with experienced maize farmers were used to derive production budgets for the alternative farming methods. The economic incentives revealed by the cost-benefit analysis help to explain the adoption of maize farming methods in the Philippine uplands. Open-field farming without hedgerows has been by far the most popular method of maize production, often with two or more fields cropped in rotation. There is little persistent adoption of hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes because sustained maize yields are not realised rapidly enough to compensate farmers for establishment and maintenance costs. Natural vegetation and grass strips are more attractive to farmers because of lower establishment costs, and provide intermediate steps to adoption. Rural finance, commodity pricing and agrarian reform policies influence the incentives for maize farmers in the Philippine uplands to adopt and maintain hedgerow intercropping.

Familial forms broaden the horizons for primary aldosteronism

The identification of familial forms of primary aldosteronism (PAL) has led to its detection in relatives of affected patients not suspected previously of having PAL. Many ave normokalemic and some ave even normotensive. This broadens the spectrum of PAL, permitting the study of its evolution and of intervention with specific therapy when hypertension develops. The genetic basis of one form involves steroid biosynthetic enzymes and the other form predisposes to hyperplasia and benign neoplasia.

Structures of free and complexed forms of Escherichia coli xanthine-guanine phosphoribosyltransferase

Structures of free, substrate-bound and product-bound forms of Escherichia coli xanthine-guanine phosphoribosyltransferase (XGPRT) have been determined by X-ray crystallography. These are compared with the previously determined structure of magnesium and sulphate-bound XPRT. The structure of free XGPRT at 2.25 Angstrom resolution confirms the flexibility of residues in and around a mobile loop identified in other PRTases and shows that the cis-peptide conformation of Arg37 at the active site is maintained in the absence of bound ligands. The structures of XGPRT complexed with the purine base substrates guanine or xanthine in combination with cPRib-PP, an analog of the second substrate PRib-PP, have been solved to 2.0 Angstrom resolution. In these two structures the disordered phosphate-binding loop of uncomplexed XGPRT becomes ordered through interactions with the 5'-phosphate group of cPRib-PP. The cyclopentane ring of cPRib-PP has the C3 exo pucker conformation, stabilised by the cPRib-PP-bound Mg2+. The purine base specificity of XGPRT appears to be due to water-mediated interactions between the 2-exocyclic groups of guanine or xanthine and side-chains of Glu136 and Asp140, as well as the main-chain oxygen atom of Ile135. Asp92, together with Lys115, could help stabilise the N7-protonated tautomer of the incoming base and could act as a general base to remove the proton from N7 .when the nucleotide product is formed. The 2.6 Angstrom resolution structure of XGPRT complexed with product GMP is similar to the substrate-bound complexes. However, the ribose ring of GMP is rotated by similar to 24 degrees compared with the equivalent ring in cPRib-PP. This rotation results in the loss of all interactions between the ribosyl group and the enzyme in the product complex. (C) 1998 Academic Press.

Availability of two forms of dissolved nitrogen to the coral Pocillopora damicornis and its symbiotic zooxanthellae

The relative contribution of dissolved nitrogen (ammonium and dissolved free amino acids DFAAs) to the nitrogen budget of the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis was assessed for colonies growing on control and ammonium-enriched reefs at One Tree Island (southern Great Barrier Reef) during the ENCORE (Enrichment of Nutrient on Coral Reef; 1993 to 1996) project. P. damicornis acquired ammonium at rates of between 5.1 and 91.8 nmol N cm(-2) h(-1) which were not affected by nutrient treatment except in the case of one morph. In this case, uptake rates decreased from 80.5 to 42.8 nmol cm(-2) h(-1) (P < 0.05) on exposure to elevated ammonium over 12 mo. The presence or absence of light during measurement did not influence the uptake of ammonium ions. Nitrogen budgets revealed that the uptake of ammonium from concentrations of 0.11 to 0.13 mu M could completely satisfy the demand of growing P. damicornis for new nitrogen. P. damicornis also took up DFAAs at rates ranging from 4.9 to 9.8 nmol N cm(-2) h(-1). These rates were higher in the dark than in the light (9.0 vs 5.1 nmol m(-2) h(-1), P < 0.001). Uptake rates were highest for the amino acids serine, arginine and alanine, and lowest for tyrosine. DFAA concentrations within the ENCORE microatolls that received ammonium were undetectable, whereas they ranged up to 100 nM within the control microatolls. The contribution of DFAAs to the nitrogen budget of P. damicornis constituted only a small fraction of the nitrogen potentially contributed by ammonium under field conditions. Even at the highest field concentrations measured during this study, DFAAs could contribute only similar or equal to 11.3% of the nitrogen demand of P. damicornis. This contribution, however, may be an important source of nitrogen when other sources such as ammonium are scarce or during periods when high concentrations of DFAAs become sporadically available (e.g. cell breakage during fish-grazing).