Genetic Variants of Diabetes Risk and Incident Cardiovascular Events in Chronic Coronary Artery Disease

Objective: To determine whether information from genetic risk variants for diabetes is associated with cardiovascular events incidence. Methods: From the about 30 known genes associated with diabetes, we genotyped single-nucleotide polymorphisms at the 10 loci most associated with type-2 diabetes in 425 subjects from the MASS-II Study, a randomized study in patients with multi-vessel coronary artery disease. The combined genetic information was evaluated by number of risk alleles for diabetes. Performance of genetic models relative to major cardiovascular events incidence was analyzed through Kaplan-Meier curve comparison and Cox Hazard Models and the discriminatory ability of models was assessed for cardiovascular events by calculating the area under the ROC curve. Results: Genetic information was able to predict 5-year incidence of major cardiovascular events and overall-mortality in non-diabetic individuals, even after adjustment for potential confounders including fasting glycemia. Non-diabetic individuals with high genetic risk had a similar incidence of events then diabetic individuals (cumulative hazard of 33.0 versus 35.1% of diabetic subjects). The addition of combined genetic information to clinical predictors significantly improved the AUC for cardiovascular events incidence (AUC = 0.641 versus 0.610). Conclusions: Combined information of genetic variants for diabetes risk is associated to major cardiovascular events incidence, including overall mortality, in non-diabetic individuals with coronary artery disease.

Trends in dermatomyositis- and polymyositis-related mortality in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2007: multiple cause-of-death analysis

Background: Dermatomyositis (DM) and polymyositis (PM) are rare systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases with high fatality rates. There have been few population-based mortality studies of dermatomyositis and polymyositis in the world, and none have been conducted in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to employ multiple-cause of-death methodology in the analysis of trends in mortality related to dermatomyositis and polymyositis in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, between 1985 and 2007. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which DM or PM was listed as a cause of death. The variables sex, age and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analysis were performed by chi-square and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, variance analysis and linear regression. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 23-year period, there were 318 DM-related deaths and 316 PM-related deaths. Overall, DM/PM was designated as an underlying cause in 55.2% and as an associated cause in 44.8%; among 634 total deaths females accounted for 71.5%. During the study period, age-and gender-adjusted DM mortality rates did not change significantly, although PM as an underlying cause and total mentions of PM trended lower (p < 0.05). The mean ages at death were 47.76 +/- 20.81 years for DM and 54.24 +/- 17.94 years for PM (p = 0.0003). For DM/PM, respectively, as underlying causes, the principal associated causes of death were as follows: pneumonia (in 43.8%/33.5%); respiratory failure (in 34.4%/32.3%); interstitial pulmonary diseases and other pulmonary conditions (in 28.9%/17.6%); and septicemia (in 22.8%/15.9%). For DM/PM, respectively, as associated causes, the following were the principal underlying causes of death: respiratory disorders (in 28.3%/26.0%); circulatory disorders (in 17.4%/20.5%); neoplasms (in 16.7%/13.7%); infectious and parasitic diseases (in 11.6%/9.6%); and gastrointestinal disorders (in 8.0%/4.8%). Of the 318 DM-related deaths, 36 involved neoplasms, compared with 20 of the 316 PM-related deaths (p = 0.03). Conclusions: Our study using multiple cause of deaths found that DM/PM were identified as the underlying cause of death in only 55.2% of the deaths, indicating that both diseases were underestimated in the primary mortality statistics. We observed a predominance of deaths in women and in older individuals, as well as a trend toward stability in the mortality rates. We have confirmed that the risk of death is greater when either disease is accompanied by neoplasm, albeit to lesser degree in individuals with PM. The investigation of the underlying and associated causes of death related to DM/PM broaden the knowledge of the natural history of both diseases and could help integrate mortality data for use in the evaluation of control measures for DM/PM.

Predictors of death and vascular events in the elderly - The Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-The goal of the present study was to identify risk factors for vascular disease in the elderly. Methods-We conducted a prospective study of control subjects from a population-based study of stroke in Perth, Western Australia, that was completed in 1989 to 1990 and used record linkage and a survey of survivors to identify deaths and nonfatal vascular events. Data validated through reference to medical records were analyzed with the use of Cox proportional hazards models. Results-Follow-up for the 931 subjects was 88% complete. By June 24, 1994, 198 (24%) of the subjects had died (96 from vascular disease), and there had been 45 nonfatal strokes or myocardial infarctions. The hazard ratio for diabetes exceeded 2.0 for all end points, whereas the consumption of meat >4 times weekly was associated with a reduction in risk of less than or equal to 30%. In most models, female sex and consumption of alcohol were associated with reduced risks, whereas previous myocardial infarction was linked to an increase in risk. Conclusions-There are only limited associations between lifestyle and major vascular illness in old age. Effective health promotion activities in early and middle life may be the key to a longer and healthier old age.

How well does B-type natriuretic peptide predict death and cardiac events in patients with heart failure: systematic review

Objective To assess how well B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) predicts prognosis in patients with heart failure. Design Systematic review of studies assessing BNP for prognosis m patients with heart failure or asymptomatic patients. Data sources Electronic searches of Medline and Embase from January 1994 to March 2004 and reference lists of included studies. Study selection and data extraction We included all studies that estimated the relation between BNP measurement and the risk of death, cardiac death, sudden death, or cardiovascular event in patients with heart failure or asymptomatic patients, including initial values and changes in values in response to treatment. Multivariable models that included both BNP and left ventricular ejection fraction as predictors were used to compare the prognostic value of each variable. Two reviewers independently selected studies and extracted data. Data synthesis 19 studies used BNP to estimate the relative risk of death or cardiovascular events in heart failure patients and five studies in asymptomatic patients. In heart failure patients, each 100 pg/ml increase was associated with a 35% increase in the relative risk of death. BNP was used in 35 multivariable models of prognosis. In nine of the models, it was the only variable to reach significance-that is, other variables contained no prognostic information beyond that of BNP. Even allowing for the scale of the variables, it seems to be a strong indicator of risk. Conclusion Although systematic reviews of prognostic studies have inherent difficulties, including die possibility of publication bias, the results of the studies in this review show that BNP is a strong prognostic indicator for both asymptomatic patients mid for patients with heart failure at all stages of disease.

Thoracic aorta calcification detected by electron beam tomography predicts all-cause mortality

Background: The presence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an independent marker of increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality. However, the predictive value of thoracic aorta calcification (TAC), which can be additionally identified without further scanning during assessment of CAC, is unknown. Methods: We followed a cohort of 8401 asymptomatic individuals (mean age: 53 +/- 10 years, 69% men) undergoing cardiac risk factor evaluation and TAC and CAC testing with electron beam computed tomography. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict all-cause mortality based on the presence of TAC. Results: During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 124 (1.5%) deaths were observed. Overall survival was 96.9% and 98.9% for those with and without detectable TAC, respectively (p < 0.0001). Compared to those with no TAC, the hazard ratio for mortality in the presence of TAC was 3.25 (95% CI: 2.28-4.65, p < 0.0001) in unadjusted analysis. After adjusting for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking and family history of premature coronary artery disease, and presence of CAC the relationship remained robust (HR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.10-2.27, p = 0.015). Likelihood ratio chi(2) statistics demonstrated that the addition of TAC contributed significantly in predicting mortality to traditional risk factors alone (chi(2) = 13.62, p = 0.002) as well as risk factors + CAC (chi(2) = 5.84, p = 0.02) models. Conclusion: In conclusion, the presence of TAC was associated with all-cause mortality in our study; this relationship was independent of conventional CVD risk factors as well as the presence of CAC. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rosuvastatin and Cardiovascular Events in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis

Background Statins reduce the incidence of cardiovascular events in patients at high cardiovascular risk. However, a benefit of statins in such patients who are undergoing hemodialysis has not been proved. Methods We conducted an international, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, prospective trial involving 2776 patients, 50 to 80 years of age, who were undergoing maintenance hemodialysis. We randomly assigned patients to receive rosuvastatin, 10 mg daily, or placebo. The combined primary end point was death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. Secondary end points included death from all causes and individual cardiac and vascular events. Results After 3 months, the mean reduction in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels was 43% in patients receiving rosuvastatin, from a mean baseline level of 100 mg per deciliter (2.6 mmol per liter). During a median follow-up period of 3.8 years, 396 patients in the rosuvastatin group and 408 patients in the placebo group reached the primary end point (9.2 and 9.5 events per 100 patient-years, respectively; hazard ratio for the combined end point in the rosuvastatin group vs. the placebo group, 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84 to 1.11; P = 0.59). Rosuvastatin had no effect on individual components of the primary end point. There was also no significant effect on all-cause mortality (13.5 vs. 14.0 events per 100 patient-years; hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.07; P = 0.51). Conclusions In patients undergoing hemodialysis, the initiation of treatment with rosuvastatin lowered the LDL cholesterol level but had no significant effect on the composite primary end point of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00240331.)

Relation of Aortic Valve Calcium Detected by Cardiac Computed Tomography to All-Cause Mortality

Aortic valve calcium (AVC) can be quantified on the same computed tomographic scan as coronary artery calcium (CAC). Although CAC is an established predictor of cardiovascular events, limited evidence is available for an independent predictive value for AVC. We studied a cohort of 8,401 asymptomatic subjects (mean age 53 10 years, 69% men), who were free of known coronary heart disease and were undergoing electron beam computed tomography for assessment of subclinical atherosclerosis. The patients were followed for a median of 5 years (range 1 to 7) for the occurrence of mortality from any cause. Multivariate Cox regression models were developed to predict all-cause mortality according to the presence of AVC. A total of 517 patients (6%) had AVC on electron beam computed tomography. During follow-up, 124 patients died (1.5%), for an overall survival rate of 96.1% and 98.7% for those with and without AVC, respectively (hazard ratio 3.39, 95% confidence interval 2.09 to 5.49). After adjustment for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and a family history of premature coronary heart disease, AVC remained a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.98). Likelihood ratio chi-square statistics demonstrated that the addition of AVC contributed significantly to the prediction of mortality in a model adjusted for traditional risk factors (chi-square = 5.03, p = 0.03) as well as traditional risk factors plus the presence of CAC (chi-square = 3.58, p = 0.05). In conclusion, AVC was associated with increased all-cause mortality, independent of the traditional risk factors and the presence of CAC. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Inc. (Am J Cardiol 2010;106:1787-1791)

Viral Load Predicts New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy, Independent of CD4 T Lymphocyte Value

Background. Many resource-limited countries rely on clinical and immunological monitoring without routine virological monitoring for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We assessed whether HIV load had independent predictive value in the presence of immunological and clinical data for the occurrence of new World Health Organization (WHO) stage 3 or 4 events (hereafter, WHO events) among HIV-infected children receiving HAART in Latin America. Methods. The NISDI (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development International Site Development Initiative) Pediatric Protocol is an observational cohort study designed to describe HIV-related outcomes among infected children. Eligibility criteria for this analysis included perinatal infection, age ! 15 years, and continuous HAART for >= 6 months. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess time to new WHO events as a function of immunological status, viral load, hemoglobin level, and potential confounding variables; laboratory tests repeated during the study were treated as time-varying predictors. Results. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.5 years; new WHO events occurred in 92 (15.8%) of 584 children. In proportional hazards modeling, most recent viral load 15000 copies/mL was associated with a nearly doubled risk of developing a WHO event (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.11; P = 033), even after adjustment for immunological status defined on the basis of CD4 T lymphocyte value, hemoglobin level, age, and body mass index. Conclusions. Routine virological monitoring using the WHO virological failure threshold of 5000 copies/mL adds independent predictive value to immunological and clinical assessments for identification of children receiving HAART who are at risk for significant HIV-related illness. To provide optimal care, periodic virological monitoring should be considered for all settings that provide HAART to children.

The Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes Randomized Trial of Different Treatment Strategies in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease Impact of Treatment Strategy on Cardiac Mortality and Myocardial Infarction

Background-The Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial in 2368 patients with stable ischemic heart disease assigned before randomization to percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting strata reported similar 5-year all-cause mortality rates with insulin sensitization versus insulin provision therapy and with a strategy of prompt initial coronary revascularization and intensive medical therapy or intensive medical therapy alone with revascularization reserved for clinical indication(s). In this report, we examine the predefined secondary end points of cardiac death and myocardial infarction (MI). Methods and Results-Outcome data were analyzed by intention to treat; the Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess 5-year event rates. Nominal P values are presented. During an average 5.3-year follow-up, there were 316 deaths (43% were attributed to cardiac causes) and 279 first MI events. Five-year cardiac mortality did not differ between revascularization plus intensive medical therapy (5.9%) and intensive medical therapy alone groups (5.7%; P = 0.38) or between insulin sensitization (5.7%) and insulin provision therapy (6%; P = 0.76). In the coronary artery bypass grafting stratum (n = 763), MI events were significantly less frequent in revascularization plus intensive medical therapy versus intensive medical therapy alone groups (10.0% versus 17.6%; P = 0.003), and the composite end points of all-cause death or MI (21.1% versus 29.2%; P = 0.010) and cardiac death or MI (P = 0.03) were also less frequent. Reduction in MI (P = 0.001) and cardiac death/MI (P = 0.002) was significant only in the insulin sensitization group. Conclusions-In many patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and stable ischemic coronary disease in whom angina symptoms are controlled, similar to those enrolled in the percutaneous coronary intervention stratum, intensive medical therapy alone should be the first-line strategy. In patients with more extensive coronary disease, similar to those enrolled in the coronary artery bypass grafting stratum, prompt coronary artery bypass grafting, in the absence of contraindications, intensive medical therapy, and an insulin sensitization strategy appears to be a preferred therapeutic strategy to reduce the incidence of MI. Clinical Trial Registration-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00006305. (Circulation. 2009;120:2529-2540.)

Association between micronuclei frequency in pollen mother cells of Tradescantia and mortality due to cancer and cardiovascular diseases: A preliminary study in Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

The present study was designed to explore the correlation between the frequency of micronuclei in Trad-MN, measured across 28 biomonitoring stations during the period comprised between 11 of May and 2 of October, 2006, and adjusted mortality rates due to cardiovascular, respiratory diseases and cancer in Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil, an area with different sources of air pollution. For controlling purposes, mortality rate due to gastrointestinal diseases (an event less prone to be affected by air pollution) was also considered in the analysis. Spatial distribution of micronuclei frequency was determined using average interpolation. The association between health estimators and micronuclei frequency was determined by measures of Pearson`s correlation. Higher frequencies of micronuclei were detected in areas with high traffic and close to a petrochemical pole. Significant associations were detected between micronuclei frequency and adjusted mortality rate due to cardiovascular diseases (r = 0.841, p = 0.036) and cancer (r = 0.890, p = 0.018). The association between mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases was positive but did not reach statistical significance (r = 0.640, p = 0.172), probably because of the small number of events. Gastrointestinal mortality did not exhibit significant association with micronuclei frequency. Because the small number of observations and the nature of an ecological study, the present findings must be considered with caution and considered as preliminary. Further studies, performed in different conditions of contamination and climate should be done before considering Trad-MN in the evaluation of human health risk imposed by air pollutants. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of mortality using dobutamine echocardiography

OBJECTIVES We sought to find out whether dobutamine echocardiography (DbE) could provide independent prediction of total and cardiac mortality, incremental to clinical and angiographic variables. BACKGROUND Existing outcome studies with DbE have examined composite end points, rather than death, over a relatively short follow-up. METHODS Clinical and stress data were collected in 3,156 patients (age 63 +/- 12 years, 1,801 men) undergoing DbE. Significant stenoses (>50% diameter) were identified in 70% of 1,073 patients undergoing coronary angiography. Total and cardiac mortality were identified over nine years of follow-up (mean 3.8 +/- 1.9). Cox models were used to analyze the effect of ischemia and other variables, independent of other determinants of mortality. RESULTS The dobutamine echocardiogram was abnormal in 1,575 patients (50%). Death occurred in 716 patients (23%), 259 of whom (8%) were thought to have died from cardiac causes. Patients with normal DbE had a total mortality of 8% per year and a cardiac mortality of 1% per year over the first four years of follow-up. Ischemia and the extent of abnormal wall motion were independent predictors of cardiac death, together with age and heart failure. In sequential Cox models, the predictive power of clinical data alone (model chi-square 115) was strengthened by adding the resting left ventricular function (model chi-square 138) and the results of DbE (model chi-square 181). In the subgroup undergoing coronary angiography, the power of the model was increased to a minor degree by the addition of coronary anatomy data. CONCLUSIONS Dobutamine echocardiography is an independent predictor of death, incremental to other data. While a normal dobutamine echocardiogram predicts low risk of cardiac death ton the order of 1% per year), this risk increases with the extent of abnormal wall motion at rest and stress, (J Am Coil Cardiol 2001;37:754-60) (C) 2001 by the American College of Cardiology.

Overcrowding and Infant Mortality: A Tale of Two Cities

Using detailed historical data for the cities of Glasgow and Edinhurgh, evidence is found in support of the hypothesis that overcrowding is a significant cause of infant mortality. We distinguish between voluntary overcrowding (due to the budgetary choices of poor families) and involuntary overcrowding (due to market failure in the provision of an adequate supply of appropriate housing). We found that, over the fifty year period, 1911-1961, Glasgow's infant mortality rate was significantly higher than that of Edinburgh, despite their close geographical proximity, and that a large part of the difference can he attributed to involuntary overcrowding in the first half of the twentieth century. We argue that this was due to the distinctly different housing policies adopted by the two cities, with important lessons for present day public authorities.