Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential skill of a set of prediction experiments, using more than one metric is essential as different choices can significantly alter conclusions about the presence or lack of skill. We find that increasing both the number of hindcasts and ensemble size is important for reliably assessing the correlation and expected error in forecasts. For other metrics, such as dispersion, increasing ensemble size is most important. Probabilistic measures of skill can also provide useful information about the reliability of forecasts. In addition, various methods for generating the different ensemble members are tested. The range of techniques can produce surprisingly different ensemble spread characteristics. The lessons learnt should help inform the design of future operational prediction systems.

Dominance hierarchy in different stages of development in colonies of the primitively eusocial wasp Mischocyttarus cassununga (Hymenoptera, Vespidae)

Seven colonies of Mischocyttarus cassununga were studied under field conditions at Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, MG, in southeastern Brazil: in pre-emergence, post-emergence and decline stages, during 145.8 hours. Dominance interactions among the females were quantified to verify the dynamics of succession in the social hierarchy of the colonies. Early pre-emergence colonies present more intense aggressive interactions than late pre-emergence ones, because the females are engaged in securing the role of main egg layer in the nest. In post-emergence (pre-male) colonies the dominance hierarchy is more defined and the frequency of dominance and subordination behaviors were lower than in pre-emergence stages: most of the agonistic behaviors are restricted to the first ranked females (potentially queens) and the subordinate individuals play the role of workers in the nests. In the post-emergence, post-male, and decline stages the hierarchy is still maintained by the aggressive behaviors of the 1st-ranked female but because the presence of males and future nest foundresses these interactions are not well defined in a linear way.

Dialogic reading of a novel for children: effects on text comprehension

Estudos experimentais têm demonstrado efeitos positivos da leitura dialógica de livros ilustrados (leitura em voz alta intercalada com prompts e feedback para verbalizações por parte do ouvinte) sobre o vocabulário e a expressão verbal de crianças pequenas. Este estudo verificou o efeito da leitura dialógica sobre a compreensão textual de um romance infanto-juvenil por três crianças de 7-8 anos, utilizando um delineamento de sujeito único. Na Condição A, o texto era lido sem intervenções. Na Condição B, a leitura era intercalada com intervenções dialógicas baseadas nas funções narrativas presentes no texto. As medidas de compreensão mostraram um desempenho superior na Condição B para os dois participantes submetidos ao delineamento B-A-B, mas não para o participante submetido ao delineamento A-B-A. São discutidas possíveis interações da leitura dialógica com características do gênero textual e a necessidade de replicações sistemáticas com um maior número de sessões e reversões das condições.

Pesiqta Rabbati: a text-linguistic and form-analytical analysis of the rabbinic homily

Pesiqta Rabbati is a unique homiletic midrash that follows the liturgical calendar in its presentation of homilies for festivals and special Sabbaths. This article attempts to utilize Pesiqta Rabbati in order to present a global theory of the literary production of rabbinic/homiletic literature. In respect to Pesiqta Rabbati it explores such areas as dating, textual witnesses, integrative apocalyptic meta-narrative, describing and mapping the structure of the text, internal and external constraints that impacted upon the text, text linguistic analysis, form-analysis: problems in the texts and linguistic gap-filling, transmission of text, strict formalization of a homiletic unit, deconstructing and reconstructing homiletic midrashim based upon form-analytic units of the homily, Neusner’s documentary hypothesis, surface structures of the homiletic unit, and textual variants. The suggested methodology may assist scholars in their production of editions of midrashic works by eliminating superfluous material and in their decoding and defining of ancient texts.

Adjuvant treatment of premenopausal women with endocrine-responsive early breast cancer: design of the TEXT and SOFT trials

OBJECTIVES In 2003 the International Breast Cancer Study Group (IBCSG) initiated the TEXT and SOFT randomized phase III trials to answer two questions concerning adjuvant treatment for premenopausal women with endocrine-responsive early breast cancer: 1-What is the role of aromatase inhibitors (AI) for women treated with ovarian function suppression (OFS)? 2-What is the role of OFS for women who remain premenopausal and are treated with tamoxifen? METHODS TEXT randomized patients to receive exemestane or tamoxifen with OFS. SOFT randomized patients to receive exemestane with OFS, tamoxifen with OFS, or tamoxifen alone. Treatment was for 5 years from randomization. RESULTS TEXT and SOFT successfully met their enrollment goals in 2011. The 5738 enrolled women had lower-risk disease and lower observed disease-free survival (DFS) event rates than anticipated. Consequently, 7 and 13 additional years of follow-up for TEXT and SOFT, respectively, were required to reach the targeted DFS events (median follow-up about 10.5 and 15 years). To provide timely answers, protocol amendments in 2011 specified analyses based on chronological time and median follow-up. To assess the AI question, exemestane + OFS versus tamoxifen + OFS, a combined analysis of TEXT and SOFT became the primary analysis (n = 4717). The OFS question became the primary analysis from SOFT, assessing the unique comparison of tamoxifen + OFS versus tamoxifen alone (n = 2045). The first reports are anticipated in mid- and late-2014. CONCLUSIONS We present the original designs of TEXT and SOFT and adaptations to ensure timely answers to two questions concerning optimal adjuvant endocrine treatment for premenopausal women with endocrine-responsive breast cancer. Trial Registration TEXT: Clinicaltrials.govNCT00066703 SOFT: Clinicaltrials.govNCT00066690.

The cloning and expression of myogenin, a gene regulating myogenesis

Expression of the differentiated skeletal muscle phenotype is a process that appears to occur in at least two stages. First, pluripotent stem cells become committed to the myogenic lineage. Although undifferentiated and capable of continued proliferation, determined myoblasts are restricted to a single developmental fate. Upon receiving the appropriate environmental signals, these determined myoblasts withdraw from the cell cycle, fuse to form multi-nucleated myotubes, and begin to express a battery of muscle-specific gene products that make up the functional and contractile apparatus of the muscle. This project is aimed at the identification and characterization of factors that control the determination and differentiation of myogenic cells. We have cloned a cDNA, called myogenin, that plays an important role in these processes. Myogenin is expressed exclusively in skeletal muscle in vivo and myogenic cell lines in vitro. Its expression is sharply upregulated during differentiation. When constitutively expressed in fibroblasts, myogenin converts these cells to the myogenic lineage. Transfected cells behave as myogenic tissue culture cells with respect to the genes they express, the way they respond to environmental cues, and are capable of fusing to form multinucleated myotubes. Sequence analysis showed that this cDNA has homology to a family of transcription factors in a region of 72 amino acids known as the basic helix-loop-helix motif. This domain appears to mediate binding to a DNA sequence element known as an E-box (CANNTG) essential for the activity of the enhancers of many muscle-specific genes.^ Analysis of myogenin in tissue culture cells showed that its expression is responsive to many of the environmental cues, such as the presence of growth factors and oncogenes, that modulate myogenesis. In an attempt to identify the cis- and trans-elements that control myogenin expression and thereby understand what factors are responsible for the establishment of the myogenic lineage, we have cloned the myogenin gene. After analysis of the gene structure, we constructed a series of reporter constructs from the 5$\prime$ upstream sequence of the myogenin gene to determine which cis-acting sequences might be important in myogenin regulation. We found that 184 nucleotides of the 5$\prime$ sequence was sufficient to direct high-level muscle-specific expression of the reporter gene. Two sequence elements present in the 184 fragment, an E-box and a MEF-2 site, have been shown previously to be important in muscle-specific transcription. Mutagenesis of these sites revealed that both sites are necessary for full activity of the myogenin promoter, and suggests that a complex hierarchy of transcription factors control myogenic differentiation. ^

The pain experience of elderly hospice patients with cancer

Purpose/objectives. A grounded theory design was used to identify, describe, and generate a theoretical analysis of the pain experience of elderly hospice patients with cancer. ^ Sample. Eleven participants over the age of 65, receiving services from a for-profit hospice were interviewed in their homes. ^ Methods. Broad unstructured face to face audio-taped interviews were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using constant-comparative method of analysis. ^ Findings. Pain was described as a hierarchy of chronic, acute, and psychological pain with psychological pain as the worst. Suffering was the basic social problem of pain. Participants dealt with suffering by the basic social process of enduring. Enduring had two sub-processes, maintaining hope and adjusting. Trusting in a higher being and finding meaning were mechanisms of maintaining hope. Mechanisms of adjusting were dealing with uncertainty, accepting, and minimizing pain. ^ Implications for nursing practice. Nurses need to recognize and value the hard work of enduring to deal with suffering. Assisting elderly hospice patients with cancer to address the sub-processes of enduring and their mechanisms can foster enduring. ^

Recognition of activities of daily living in healthy subjects using two ad-hoc classifiers

Activities of daily living (ADL) are important for quality of life. They are indicators of cognitive health status and their assessment is a measure of independence in everyday living. ADL are difficult to reliably assess using questionnaires due to self-reporting biases. Various sensor-based (wearable, in-home, intrusive) systems have been proposed to successfully recognize and quantify ADL without relying on self-reporting. New classifiers required to classify sensor data are on the rise. We propose two ad-hoc classifiers that are based only on non-intrusive sensor data. METHODS: A wireless sensor system with ten sensor boxes was installed in the home of ten healthy subjects to collect ambient data over a duration of 20 consecutive days. A handheld protocol device and a paper logbook were also provided to the subjects. Eight ADL were selected for recognition. We developed two ad-hoc ADL classifiers, namely the rule based forward chaining inference engine (RBI) classifier and the circadian activity rhythm (CAR) classifier. The RBI classifier finds facts in data and matches them against the rules. The CAR classifier works within a framework to automatically rate routine activities to detect regular repeating patterns of behavior. For comparison, two state-of-the-art [Naïves Bayes (NB), Random Forest (RF)] classifiers have also been used. All classifiers were validated with the collected data sets for classification and recognition of the eight specific ADL. RESULTS: Out of a total of 1,373 ADL, the RBI classifier correctly determined 1,264, while missing 109 and the CAR determined 1,305 while missing 68 ADL. The RBI and CAR classifier recognized activities with an average sensitivity of 91.27 and 94.36%, respectively, outperforming both RF and NB. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of the classifiers varied significantly and shows that the classifier plays an important role in ADL recognition. Both RBI and CAR classifier performed better than existing state-of-the-art (NB, RF) on all ADL. Of the two ad-hoc classifiers, the CAR classifier was more accurate and is likely to be better suited than the RBI for distinguishing and recognizing complex ADL.

Issues related to HIV stigma: An embedded case study of PLHAS and community in Nepal

Little is known about HIV stigma in Nepal. Findings from other parts of the world suggest that HIV related stigma acts as a limiting factor for People Living with HIV & AIDS (PLHAs) from accessing needed health care and the subsequent psychological outcomes make PLHAs and their immediate family members more vulnerable. The purpose of this study is to understand and describe Nepalese PLHA's and community peoples' experiences regarding sources, types, causes and mechanism of HIV-associated stigma. This study aimed to best utilize the existing data. Study participants were recruited through local Community Based Organizations working in the field of HIV. The data, collected in the form of focus group discussions in workshop settings, were coded and analyzed. Study has revealed key issues related to HIV stigma in Nepal: hierarchy of stigma, denial and rejection, death as a form of punishment and Mumbaiya disease. A conceptual model was developed to explain the HIV stigma in Nepal. Our hope is that this finding, stigma being a contextual variable, will be helpful in triggering a novel public health discourse in the field of HIV stigma in Nepal, which will eventually be helpful for developing policies and interventions to eliminate HIV-associated stigma.^

Identification of a biomarker panel for colorectal cancer diagnosis

Background Malignancies arising in the large bowel cause the second largest number of deaths from cancer in the Western World. Despite progresses made during the last decades, colorectal cancer remains one of the most frequent and deadly neoplasias in the western countries. Methods A genomic study of human colorectal cancer has been carried out on a total of 31 tumoral samples, corresponding to different stages of the disease, and 33 non-tumoral samples. The study was carried out by hybridisation of the tumour samples against a reference pool of non-tumoral samples using Agilent Human 1A 60-mer oligo microarrays. The results obtained were validated by qRT-PCR. In the subsequent bioinformatics analysis, gene networks by means of Bayesian classifiers, variable selection and bootstrap resampling were built. The consensus among all the induced models produced a hierarchy of dependences and, thus, of variables. Results After an exhaustive process of pre-processing to ensure data quality--lost values imputation, probes quality, data smoothing and intraclass variability filtering--the final dataset comprised a total of 8, 104 probes. Next, a supervised classification approach and data analysis was carried out to obtain the most relevant genes. Two of them are directly involved in cancer progression and in particular in colorectal cancer. Finally, a supervised classifier was induced to classify new unseen samples. Conclusions We have developed a tentative model for the diagnosis of colorectal cancer based on a biomarker panel. Our results indicate that the gene profile described herein can discriminate between non-cancerous and cancerous samples with 94.45% accuracy using different supervised classifiers (AUC values in the range of 0.997 and 0.955)

Identification of a biomarker panel for colorectal cancer diagnosis

Background:Malignancies arising in the large bowel cause the second largest number of deaths from cancer in the Western World. Despite progresses made during the last decades, colorectal cancer remains one of the most frequent and deadly neoplasias in the western countries. Methods: A genomic study of human colorectal cancer has been carried out on a total of 31 tumoral samples, corresponding to different stages of the disease, and 33 non-tumoral samples. The study was carried out by hybridisation of the tumour samples against a reference pool of non-tumoral samples using Agilent Human 1A 60-mer oligo microarrays. The results obtained were validated by qRT-PCR. In the subsequent bioinformatics analysis, gene networks by means of Bayesian classifiers, variable selection and bootstrap resampling were built. The consensus among all the induced models produced a hierarchy of dependences and, thus, of variables. Results: After an exhaustive process of pre-processing to ensure data quality--lost values imputation, probes quality, data smoothing and intraclass variability filtering--the final dataset comprised a total of 8, 104 probes. Next, a supervised classification approach and data analysis was carried out to obtain the most relevant genes. Two of them are directly involved in cancer progression and in particular in colorectal cancer. Finally, a supervised classifier was induced to classify new unseen samples. Conclusions: We have developed a tentative model for the diagnosis of colorectal cancer based on a biomarker panel. Our results indicate that the gene profile described herein can discriminate between non-cancerous and cancerous samples with 94.45% accuracy using different supervised classifiers (AUC values in the range of 0.997 and 0.955).

Measures of residue density in protein structures

A hierarchy of residue density assessments and packing properties in protein structures are contrasted, including a regular density, a variety of charge densities, a hydrophobic density, a polar density, and an aromatic density. These densities are investigated by alternative distance measures and also at the interface of multiunit structures. Amino acids are divided into nine structural categories according to three secondary structure states and three solvent accessibility levels. To take account of amino acid abundance differences across protein structures, we normalize the observed density by the expected density defining a density index. Solvent accessibility levels exert the predominant influence in determinations of the regular residue density. Explicitly, the regular density values vary approximately linearly with respect to solvent accessibility levels, the linearity parameters depending on the amino acid. The charge index reveals pronounced inequalities between lysine and arginine in their interactions with acidic residues. The aromatic density calculations in all structural categories parallel the regular density calculations, indicating that the aromatic residues are distributed as a random sample of all residues. Moreover, aromatic residues are found to be over-represented in the neighborhood of all amino acids. This result might be attributed to nucleation sites and protein stability being substantially associated with aromatic residues.

A numerical strategy for efficient modeling of the equatorial wave guide

Convection in the tropics is observed to involve a wide-ranging hierarchy of scales from a few kilometers to the planetary scales and also has a profound impact on short-term climate. The mechanisms responsible for this behavior present a major unsolved problem. A promising emerging approach to address these issues is cloud-resolving modeling. Here a family of numerical models is introduced specifically to model the feedback of small-scale deep convection on tropical planetary waves and tropical circulation in a highly efficient manner compatible with the approach through cloud-resolving modeling. Such a procedure is also useful for theoretical purposes. The basic idea in the approach is to use low-order truncation in the meriodonal direction through Gauss–Hermite quadrature projected onto a simple discrete radiation condition. In this fashion, the cloud-resolving modeling of equatorially trapped planetary waves reduces to the solution of a small number of purely zonal two-dimensional wave systems along a few judiciously chosen meriodonal layers that are coupled only by some additional source terms. The approach is analyzed in detail with full mathematical rigor for linearized equatorial primitive equations with source terms.

Rational design of a bacterial transcriptional cascade for amplifying gene expression capacity

Cascade regulatory circuits have been described that control numerous cell processes, and may provide models for the design of artificial circuits with novel properties. Here we describe the design of a transcriptional regulatory cascade to amplify the cell response to a given signal. We used the salicylate-responsive activators of Pseudomonas putida NahR of the naphthalene degradation plasmid NAH7 and XylS2, a mutant regulator of the TOL plasmid for catabolism of m-xylene and their respective cognate promoters Psal and Pm. Control of the expression of xylS2 with the nahR/Psal system permitted either their selective activation with specific effectors for each protein or the simultaneous activation of both of them with salicylate. When cells face the common effector of the two regulators, both the increase in XylS2 concentration and the stimulation of its activity act synergistically on the Pm promoter, amplifying the gene expression capacity by at least one order of magnitude with respect to the individual systems. By changing the hierarchy of regulators, we showed that the specific features of the downstream regulator were crucial for the amplification effect. Directed changes in the effector profile of the regulators allowed the extension of the amplifying system to other molecular signals.

Targeted mutagenesis of Lis1 disrupts cortical development and LIS1 homodimerization

Lissencephaly is a severe brain malformation in humans. To study the function of the gene mutated in lissencephaly (LIS1), we deleted the first coding exon from the mouse Lis1 gene. The deletion resulted in a shorter protein (sLIS1) that initiates from the second methionine, a unique situation because most LIS1 mutations result in a null allele. This mutation mimics a mutation described in one lissencephaly patient with a milder phenotype. Homozygotes are early lethal, although heterozygotes are viable and fertile. Most strikingly, the morphology of cortical neurons and radial glia is aberrant in the developing cortex, and the neurons migrate more slowly. This is the first demonstration, to our knowledge, of a cellular abnormality in the migrating neurons after Lis1 mutation. Moreover, cortical plate splitting and thalomocortical innervation are also abnormal. Biochemically, the mutant protein is not capable of dimerization, and enzymatic activity is elevated in the embryos, thus a demonstration of the in vivo role of LIS1 as a subunit of PAF-AH. This mutation allows us to determine a hierarchy of functions that are sensitive to LIS1 dosage, thus promoting our understanding of the role of LIS1 in the developing cortex.