An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the health sector in Montserrat

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also in terms of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Montserrat for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the monetary value associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrheal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $0.61 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) – $1 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for Montserrat. These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving increased direct spending on per capita health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health burdens in the period 2010-2050. The methodology and results suggest that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for Montserrat. Also the report highlights the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending.

An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Saint Lucia for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the non-market, statistical life-based costs associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are a variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrhoeal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1, 2, and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $80.2 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) -$182.4 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for St. Lucia.1 These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving direct and indirect interventions in health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health costs from 2010-2050. In this context indirect interventions target sectors other than healthcare (e.g. water supply). It is also important to highlight that interventions can target both the supply of health infrastructure (including health status and disease monitoring), and households. It is suggested that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for St Lucia. Also, the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending is highlighted.

Effect of ascent protocol on acute mountain sickness and success at Muztagh Ata, 7546 m

Bloch, Konrad E., Alexander J. Turk, Marco Maggiorini, Thomas Hess, Tobias Merz, Martina M. Bosch, Daniel Barthelmes, Urs Hefti, Jacqueline Pichler, Oliver Senn, and Otto D. Schoch. Effect of ascent protocol on acute mountain sickness and success at Muztagh Ata, 7546 m. High Alt. Med. Biol. 10:25-32, 2009.-Data on acclimatization during expedition-style climbing to > 5000 m are scant. We evaluated the hypothesis that minor differences in ascent protocol influence acute mountain sickness (AMS) symptoms and mountaineering success in climbers to Muztagh Ata (7546 m), Western China. We performed a randomized, controlled trial during a high altitude medical research expedition to Muztagh Ata. Thirty-four healthy mountaineers (mean age 45 yr, 7 women) were randomized to follow one of two protocols, ascending within 15 or 19 days to the summit of Muztagh Ata at 7546 m, respectively. The main outcome measures, AMS symptom scores and the number of proceeding climbers, were assessed daily. Mean +/- SD AMS-C scores of 16 climbers randomized to slow ascent were 0.06 +/- 0.18, 0.26 +/- 0.08, 0.41 +/- 0.45, 0.53 +/- 0.77 at camps I (5533 m), II (6265 m), III (6865 m), and the summit (7546 m), respectively. Corresponding values in 18 climbers randomized to fast ascent were significantly higher: 0.17 +/- 0.23, 0.43 +/- 0.75, 0.49 +/- 0.36, and 0.69 +/- 0.54 (p < 0.008, vs. slow ascent in regression analysis accounting for weather-related protocol deviation). Climbers randomized to slow ascent were able to ascend according to the protocol without AMS for significantly more days than climbers randomized to fast ascent (p = 0.04, Kaplan-Meier analysis). More climbers randomized to slow ascent were successful in reaching the highest camp at 6865 m without AMS (odds ratio 9.5; 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 89). In climbers ascending to very high altitudes, differences of a few days in acclimatization have a significant impact on symptom severity, the prevalence of AMS, and mountaineering success. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT00603122.

Turismo y trabajo : Una aproximación desde el mercado hotelero

El presente trabajo tiene por objetivo profundizar en el comportamiento del mercado de trabajo en regiones donde la principal actividad económica es el turismo mediante el análisis de la información que desde el año 2004 se obtiene a través de la Encuesta de Ocupación Hotelera (EOH) que releva el INDEC. La posibilidad de contar con la EOH, especialmente en aquellas localidades que, por su dimensión no poseen información proveniente de las Encuestas Permanente de Hogares (EPH), abre la posibilidad de que, a través del comportamiento hotelero y para-hotelero, se acceda a una aproximación de la situación ocupacional en esas localidades, donde se presentan serias dificultades durante algunos períodos del año. Aunque la serie de que se dispone es aún breve 'en el mejor de los casos de hasta cinco años', se la analiza mediante técnicas estadísticas para determinación de estacionalidad, como punto de partida para un posterior seguimiento y puesta en discusión de otras alternativas de abordaje. Se trabaja con localidades de manera desagregada, pudiendo advertirse nítidamente las especificidades según la modalidad turística de cada una de ellas y concentrando el comportamiento de las mismas en dos grupos diferentes: a) Localidades con economías de perfiles más diversificadas; b) Localidades con base económica preponderantemente turística. Mediante este análisis se pretende alcanzar algunos resultados que, eventualmente complementados con información de carácter primaria tanto cuantitativa como de carácter más cualitativo, aporten al conocimiento de un mercado de trabajo cuyas especificidades lo tornan complejo y cuyas consecuencias preocupan tanto al sector público como al privado

Turismo y trabajo : Una aproximación desde el mercado hotelero

El presente trabajo tiene por objetivo profundizar en el comportamiento del mercado de trabajo en regiones donde la principal actividad económica es el turismo mediante el análisis de la información que desde el año 2004 se obtiene a través de la Encuesta de Ocupación Hotelera (EOH) que releva el INDEC. La posibilidad de contar con la EOH, especialmente en aquellas localidades que, por su dimensión no poseen información proveniente de las Encuestas Permanente de Hogares (EPH), abre la posibilidad de que, a través del comportamiento hotelero y para-hotelero, se acceda a una aproximación de la situación ocupacional en esas localidades, donde se presentan serias dificultades durante algunos períodos del año. Aunque la serie de que se dispone es aún breve 'en el mejor de los casos de hasta cinco años', se la analiza mediante técnicas estadísticas para determinación de estacionalidad, como punto de partida para un posterior seguimiento y puesta en discusión de otras alternativas de abordaje. Se trabaja con localidades de manera desagregada, pudiendo advertirse nítidamente las especificidades según la modalidad turística de cada una de ellas y concentrando el comportamiento de las mismas en dos grupos diferentes: a) Localidades con economías de perfiles más diversificadas; b) Localidades con base económica preponderantemente turística. Mediante este análisis se pretende alcanzar algunos resultados que, eventualmente complementados con información de carácter primaria tanto cuantitativa como de carácter más cualitativo, aporten al conocimiento de un mercado de trabajo cuyas especificidades lo tornan complejo y cuyas consecuencias preocupan tanto al sector público como al privado

Turismo y trabajo : Una aproximación desde el mercado hotelero

El presente trabajo tiene por objetivo profundizar en el comportamiento del mercado de trabajo en regiones donde la principal actividad económica es el turismo mediante el análisis de la información que desde el año 2004 se obtiene a través de la Encuesta de Ocupación Hotelera (EOH) que releva el INDEC. La posibilidad de contar con la EOH, especialmente en aquellas localidades que, por su dimensión no poseen información proveniente de las Encuestas Permanente de Hogares (EPH), abre la posibilidad de que, a través del comportamiento hotelero y para-hotelero, se acceda a una aproximación de la situación ocupacional en esas localidades, donde se presentan serias dificultades durante algunos períodos del año. Aunque la serie de que se dispone es aún breve 'en el mejor de los casos de hasta cinco años', se la analiza mediante técnicas estadísticas para determinación de estacionalidad, como punto de partida para un posterior seguimiento y puesta en discusión de otras alternativas de abordaje. Se trabaja con localidades de manera desagregada, pudiendo advertirse nítidamente las especificidades según la modalidad turística de cada una de ellas y concentrando el comportamiento de las mismas en dos grupos diferentes: a) Localidades con economías de perfiles más diversificadas; b) Localidades con base económica preponderantemente turística. Mediante este análisis se pretende alcanzar algunos resultados que, eventualmente complementados con información de carácter primaria tanto cuantitativa como de carácter más cualitativo, aporten al conocimiento de un mercado de trabajo cuyas especificidades lo tornan complejo y cuyas consecuencias preocupan tanto al sector público como al privado

Cambios de CEO y presidentes de directorio en el Perú : un enfoque para las empresas peruanas con mayor frecuencia de negociación en la BVL de 1992 al 2014

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo determinar si los anuncios de cambios de CEO y presidentes de Directorio de las empresas listadas en la Bolsa de Valores de Lima (BVL) afectan el valor de la firma en los días cercanos al anuncio. Fue la pronta salida de Steve Jobs como CEO de Apple Inc., a causa de una enfermedad mortal, lo que nos generó el cuestionamiento respecto a cuál sería el desempeño que tienen las acciones cuyas compañías pasan por eventos similares. Como se sabe, el mercado castigó la acción de Apple el día de la muerte de Steve Jobs, con caídas superiores al 2% el día del anuncio. ¿Tendrían los mercados desarrollados y emergentes el mismo comportamiento?, ¿los eventos de cambio de CEO generan las mismas reacciones en los países emergentes? Grande fue nuestra sorpresa al observar, a nivel local, cambios en la gerencia general como en Backus & Johnston (3/9/2013) sin un efecto significativo en el mercado, pues incluso el mercado no negoció dicho valor hasta el 19/9/2013. Con el objetivo de obtener una respuesta a las consultas inicialmente planteadas, se aplicó la metodología denominada Event Analysis, la cual ya ha sido utilizada para evaluar la existencia de retornos anormales ante cambios en CEO y presidentes de Directorio en mercados desarrollados como EE. UU., Países Bajos, Australia, España, etc., y también en mercados emergentes como Colombia, Chile y México. Nuestro estudio para el mercado peruano consistió en una muestra conformada por las cincuenta empresas cuyas acciones son las de mayor frecuencia de negociación en la BVL. Se tomó en consideración todos los eventos de cambio de CEO y presidentes de Directorio entre 1992 y el 2014. De acuerdo con los resultados de la investigación realizada, la existencia de retornos anormales en los cambios de CEO y presidentes de Directorio no son estadísticamente significativos, por lo que no podrían ser usado para generar estrategias del tipo Event-driven por parte de los hedge funds. La razón predominante es la alta volatilidad de los resultados y la poca profundidad del mercado que cuenta con poca liquidez; asimismo, el hecho de tener eventos relevantes que no son tomados en cuenta por el mercado.

Pairs trading in the UK equity market: risk and return

In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive UK evidence on the profitability of the pairs trading strategy. Evidence suggests that the strategy performs well in crisis periods, so we control for both risk and liquidity to assess performance. To evaluate the effect of market frictions on the strategy, we use several estimates of transaction costs. We also present evidence on the performance of the strategy in different economic and market states. Our results show that pairs trading portfolios typically have little exposure to known equity risk factors such as market, size, value, momentum and reversal. However, a model controlling for risk and liquidity explains a far larger proportion of returns. Incorporating different assumptions about bid-ask spreads leads to reductions in performance estimates. When we allow for time-varying risk exposures, conditioned on the contemporaneous equity market return, risk-adjusted returns are generally not significantly different from zero.

Drivers of fund performance: a panel data analysis

The principle aim of this research is to elucidate the factors driving the total rate of return of non-listed funds using a panel data analytical framework. In line with previous results, we find that core funds exhibit lower yet more stable returns than value-added and, in particular, opportunistic funds, both cross-sectionally and over time. After taking into account overall market exposure, as measured by weighted market returns, the excess returns of value-added and opportunity funds are likely to stem from: high leverage, high exposure to development, active asset management and investment in specialized property sectors. A random effects estimation of the panel data model largely confirms the findings obtained from the fixed effects model. Again, the country and sector property effect shows the strongest significance in explaining total returns. The stock market variable is negative which hints at switching effects between competing asset classes. For opportunity funds, on average, the returns attributable to gearing are three times higher than those for value added funds and over five times higher than for core funds. Overall, there is relatively strong evidence indicating that country and sector allocation, style, gearing and fund size combinations impact on the performance of unlisted real estate funds.

Real estate mutual funds: herding, momentum-trading and performance

This study jointly examines herding, momentum trading and performance in real estate mutual funds (REMFs). We do this using trading and performance data for 159 REMFs across the period 1998–2008. In support of the view that Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stocks are relatively more transparent, we find that stock herding by REMFs is lower in REIT stocks than other stock. Herding behavior in our data reveals a tendency for managers to sell winners, reflective of the “disposition effect.” We find low overall levels of REMF momentum trading, but further evidence of the disposition effect when momentum trading is segregated into buy–sell dimensions. We test the robustness of our analysis using style analysis, and by reference to the level of fund dividend distribution. Our results for this are consistent with our conjecture about the role of transparency in herding, but they provide no new insights in relation to the momentum-trading dimensions of our analysis. Summarizing what are complex interrelationships, we find that neither herding nor momentum trading are demonstrably superior investment strategies for REMFs.

The conditional performance of euro bond funds: evidence from Portugal during the debt crisis

This paper evaluates the performance of a survivorship bias-free data set of Portuguese funds investing in Euro-denominated bonds by using conditional models that consider the public information available to investors when the returns are generated. We find that bond funds underperform the market significantly and by an economically relevant magnitude. This underperformance cannot be explained by the expenses they charge. Our findings support the use of conditional performance evaluation models, since we find strong evidence of both time-varying risk and performance, dependent on the slope of the term structure and the inverse relative wealth variables. We also show that survivorship bias has a significant impact on performance estimates. Furthermore, during the European debt crisis, bond fund managers performed significantly better than in non-crisis periods and were able to achieve neutral performance. This improved performance throughout the crisis seems to be related to changes in funds’ investment styles.

The cost of being ethical : evidence from Islamic equity funds

This paper examines the relationship between financial performance and ethical screening intensity of a special class of ethical funds that is rooted in Islamic values – Islamic equity funds (IEFs). These faith-based ethical funds screen investments on compliance with Islamic values where conventional interest expense (riba), gambling (maysir), excessive uncertainty (gharar), and non-ethical (non-halal) products are prohibited. We test whether these extra screens affect the financial performance of IEFs relative to non-Islamic funds. Based on a large survivorship-free international sample of 387 Islamic funds, our results show that IEFs on average underperform conventional funds by 40 basis points per month, or 4.8% per year (supporting the underperformance hypothesis). While Islamic funds do not generally perform better during crisis periods, they outperformed conventional funds during the recent sub-prime crisis (supporting the outperformance hypothesis). Using holdings-based measures for ethical screening intensity, results show IEFs that apply more intensive screening perform worse, suggesting that there is a cost to being ethical.

Measuring the biases in self-reported disability status : Evidence from aggregate data

Self-reported health status measures are generally used to analyse Social Security Disability Insurance's (SSDI) application and award decisions as well as the relationship between its generosity and labour force participation. Due to endogeneity and measurement error, the use of self-reported health and disability indicators as explanatory variables in economic models is problematic. We employ county-level aggregate data, instrumental variables and spatial econometric techniques to analyse the determinants of variation in SSDI rates and explicitly account for the endogeneity and measurement error of the self-reported disability measure. Two surprising results are found. First, it is shown that measurement error is the dominating source of the bias and that the main source of measurement error is sampling error. Second, results suggest that there may be synergies for applying for SSDI when the disabled population is larger. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Performances of socially responsible investment and environmentally friendly funds

The socially responsible investment (SRI) funds performances remain inconclusive. Hence, more studies need to be conducted to determine if SRI funds systematically underperform or outperform conventional funds. This paper has employed dynamic mean-variance model using shortage function approach to evaluate the performance of SRI and Environmentally friendly funds (EF). Unlike the traditional methods, this approach estimates fund performance considering both the return and risk at the same time. The empirical results show that SRI funds outperformed conventional funds in EU and US. In addition, the results of EU are among the top-performing categories. EF do not perform as well as SRI, but perform in manners equal or superior to conventional funds. These results show statistically significant in some cases.

Ethical screening and financial performance : the case of Islamic equity funds

Whether ethical screening affects portfolio performance is an important question that is yet to be settled in the literature. This paper aims to shed further light on this question by examining the performance of a large global sample of Islamic equity funds (IEFs) from 1984 to 2010. We find that IEFs underperform conventional funds by an average of 40 basis points per month, consistent with the underperformance hypothesis. In line with popular media claims that Islamic funds are a safer investment, IEFs outperformed conventional funds during the recent banking crisis. However, we find no such outperformance for other crises or high volatility periods. Based on fund holdings-based data, we provide evidence of a negative curvilinear relation between fund performance and ethical screening intensity, consistent with a return trade-off to being more ethical.