Zaburoni HIV case: The law can sometimes be an ass, but not in this case

Lana Nowakowski's opinion piece on the High Court decision in the Zaburoni HIV case attacks "Queensland's absurd necessity to prove intention on transmission" and argues that "changes to the law are long overdue". Both claims are wrong...

HIV outbreak among injecting drug users in Finland

An HIV outbreak among Finnish injecting drug users (IDUs) occurred in 1998. By the end of 2005, 282 IDUs were in-fected, most of them by recombinant virus CRF01_AE of HIV. After a rapid spread, the outbreak subsided, and the prevalence of HIV among IDUs remained low (<2%). The purpose of the study was to describe the outbreak in order to recognise factors that have influenced the spread and restriction of the outbreak, and thus to find tools for HIV preven-tion. Data on Finnish IDUs newly diagnosed HIV-positive between 1998 and 2005 was collected through interviews and patient documents. Study I compared markers of disease progression between 93 Finnish IDUs and 63 Dutch IDUs. In study II, geographical spread of the HIV outbreak was examined and compared with the spatial distribution of employed males. In study III, risk behaviour data from interviews of 89 HIV-positive and 207 HIV-negative IDUs was linked, and prevalence and risk factors for unprotected sex were evaluated. In study IV, data on 238 newly diagnosed IDUs was combined with data on 675 sexually transmitted HIV cases, and risk factors for late HIV diagnosis (CD4 cell count <200/µL, or AIDS at HIV diagnosis) were analysed. Finnish IDUs infected with CRF01_AE exhibited higher viral loads than did Amsterdam IDUs infected with subtype B, but there was no difference in CD4 development. The Finnish IDU outbreak spread and was restricted socially in a marginalised IDU population and geographically in areas characterised by low proportions of employed males. Up to 40% of the cases in the two clusters outside the city centre had no contact with the centre, where needle exchange services were available since 1997. Up to 63% of HIV-positive and 80% of HIV-negative sexually active IDUs reported inconsistent condom use, which was associated with steady relationships and recent inpatient addiction care. Com-pared to other transmission groups, HIV-positive IDUs were diagnosed earlier in their infection. The proportion of late diagnosed HIV cases in all transmission groups was 23%, but was only 6% among IDUs diagnosed during the first four years of the epidemic. The high viral load in early HIV infection may have contributed to the rapid spread of recombinant virus in the Finnish outbreak. The outbreak was restricted to a marginalised IDU population, and limited spatially to local pockets of pov-erty. To prevent HIV among IDUs, these pockets should be recognised and reached early through outreach work and the distribution of needle exchange and other prevention activities. To prevent the sexual transmission of HIV among IDUs, prevention programmes should be combined with addiction care services and targeted at every IDU. The early detection of the outbreak and early implementation of needle exchange programmes likely played a crucial role in re-versing the IDU outbreak.

HealthMap: A cluster randomised trial of interactive health plans and self-management support to prevent coronary heart disease in people with HIV

Background The leading causes of morbidity and mortality for people in high-income countries living with HIV are now non-AIDS malignancies, cardiovascular disease and other non-communicable diseases associated with ageing. This protocol describes the trial of HealthMap, a model of care for people with HIV (PWHIV) that includes use of an interactive shared health record and self-management support. The aims of the HealthMap trial are to evaluate engagement of PWHIV and healthcare providers with the model, and its effectiveness for reducing coronary heart disease risk, enhancing self-management, and improving mental health and quality of life of PWHIV. Methods/Design The study is a two-arm cluster randomised trial involving HIV clinical sites in several states in Australia. Doctors will be randomised to the HealthMap model (immediate arm) or to proceed with usual care (deferred arm). People with HIV whose doctors are randomised to the immediate arm receive 1) new opportunities to discuss their health status and goals with their HIV doctor using a HealthMap shared health record; 2) access to their own health record from home; 3) access to health coaching delivered by telephone and online; and 4) access to a peer moderated online group chat programme. Data will be collected from participating PWHIV (n = 710) at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months and from participating doctors (n = 60) at baseline and 12 months. The control arm will be offered the HealthMap intervention at the end of the trial. The primary study outcomes, measured at 12 months, are 1) 10-year risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction or coronary heart disease death as estimated by a Framingham Heart Study risk equation; and 2) Positive and Active Engagement in Life Scale from the Health Education Impact Questionnaire (heiQ). Discussion The study will determine the viability and utility of a novel technology-supported model of care for maintaining the health and wellbeing of people with HIV. If shown to be effective, the HealthMap model may provide a generalisable, scalable and sustainable system for supporting the care needs of people with HIV, addressing issues of equity of access. Trial registration Universal Trial Number (UTN) U111111506489; ClinicalTrial.gov Id NCT02178930 submitted 29 June 2014

Fertility in Namibia : Changes in fertility levels in North-Central Namibia 1960-2001, including an assessment of the impact of HIV

The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility in North-Central Namibia, former Ovamboland, from 1960 to 2001. Special attention was given to the onset of fertility decline and to the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility. An additional aim was to introduce parish registers as a source of data for fertility research in Africa. Data used consisted of parish registers from Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1991 and 2001 Population and Housing Censuses, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys, and the HIV sentinel surveillances of 1992-2004. Both period and cohort fertility were analysed. The P/F ratio method was used when analysing census data. The impact of HIV infection on fertility was estimated indirectly by comparing the fertility histories of women who died at an age of less than 50 years with the fertility of other women. The impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility was assessed both among infected women and in the general population. Fertility in the study population began to decline in 1980. The decline was rapid during the 1980s, levelled off in the early 1990s at the end of war of independence and then continued to decline until the end of the study period. According to parish registers, total fertility was 6.4 in the 1960s and 6.5 in the 1970s, and declined to 5.1 in the 1980s and 4.2 in the 1990s. Adjustment of these total fertility rates to correspond to levels of fertility based on data from the 1991 and 2001 censuses resulted in total fertility declining from 7.6 in 1960-79 to 6.0 in 1980-89, and to 4.9 in 1990-99. The decline was associated with increased age at first marriage, declining marital fertility and increasing premarital fertility. Fertility among adolescents increased, whereas the fertility of women in all other age groups declined. During the 1980s, the war of independence contributed to declining fertility through spousal separation and delayed marriages. Contraception has been employed in the study region since the 1980s, but in the early 1990s, use of contraceptives was still so limited that fertility was higher in North-Central Namibia than in other regions of the country. In the 1990s, fertility decline was largely a result of the increased prevalence of contraception. HIV prevalence among pregnant women increased from 4% in 1992 to 25% in 2001. In 2001, total fertility among HIV-infected women (3.7) was lower than that among other women (4.8), resulting in total fertility of 4.4 among the general population in 2001. The HIV epidemic explained more than a quarter of the decline in total fertility at population level during most of the 1990s. The HIV epidemic also reduced the number of children born by reducing the number of potential mothers. In the future, HIV will have an extensive influence on both the size and age structure of the Namibian population. Although HIV influences demographic development through both fertility and mortality, the effect through changes in fertility will be smaller than the effect through mortality. In the study region, as in some other regions of southern Africa, a new type of demographic transition is under way, one in which population growth stagnates or even reverses because of the combined effects of declining fertility and increasing mortality, both of which are consequences of the HIV pandemic.

Death, Ancestors, and HIV/AIDS among the Akan of Ghana

This is a study of crises caused by HIV/AIDS among the Akan of Ghana. It creates more awareness about the epidemic and has indicated other possible paths for campaign strategies. The pandemic has many devastating consequences; yet new infections are recorded daily despite campaigns against the disease. The search for therapy often sees the use of multiple outlets, which expresses Ghana's pluralistic medical system based on Kleinman's sector analytical model involving Western medicine, self-therapy, and folk healing. But it also leaves individuals and kin members in financial quandary. The fieldwork for this study is mainly through participant observation lasting 13 months (February 2003 to March 2004) among the Akan; in addition, some archival materials have been used. The Akan people live in the coastal south and forest zone of Ghana. Every Akan village or town is made up of corporate lineages, and social organisation is based on matrilineal descent. The society is holistic because the matrilineages seek the welfare of all their members. Meyer Fortes, R. S. Rattray and others on the Akan noticed this encompassing nature in the lineage organisation; but they did not make it salient (or failed to notice it) during illness, efforts for healing, and the care of the sick member. HIV/AIDS is an illness which shows the encompassing nature of the Akan matrilineage. It also reveals many contradictions in the group, viz. stigmatisation, abandonment, and attitudes that do not express altruism in a group expected to be closely-knit based on members' belief that they are of the 'same blood'. The crises have been analyzed in the total social system because the disease creates breaches at various levels of social interaction. An analysis of crises in a group is not far-fetched; Victor Turner has shown the way among the Ndembu and has revealed the contraditions in the seemingly uneventful life in the group. This study has identified that in dealing with HIV/AIDS patients and crises about the disease we are dealing with 'holistic' patients. Their cases produce many changes in the matrilineal structure--many orphans are being created and the care of patients is increasingly falling on the elderly. HIV/AIDS also challenges Akan cosmology because, for example, an AIDS death in local notions is a 'bad' demise which fails to produce ancestors who reproduce the society through reincarnation. Campaigns could emphasize this notion. The study begins with a description of the holistic nature of Akan matriliny, and the patients have been described as 'holistic' because their crises affect other people in the holistic society. Chapter 2 discusses the importance of ancestors as the starting points for social order who are constantly revered (in rites invoving the chief, Chapter 4). Chapter 3 focuses on funerals as an important social performance for the welfare of the dead and the living. Chapter 5 concentrates on HIV/AIDS as an illness threat marked by dominant discourses such as poverty, sexuality, migration, and condom use. Chapter 6 analyzes the attempts for therapy, and traditional healers' claims to have a cure. The efforts for therapy continues with spiritual church healing in Chapter 7, and chapter 8 is devoted to care of the patients and its inherent crises. Chapter 9 analyzes the effects of HIV/AIDS afflictions and AIDS deaths on the matrilineal group and in society. The study ends with a short part, devoted to Recommendations based on the findings in this investigation.

Stereochemical analysis of the antigenic tip of the V3 loop peptide of HIV-1 gp120

A novel multiple turn conformation has been observed for a segment GPGRAFY in the crystal structure of a complex of HIV-1 gp120 V3 loop peptide with the Fab fragment of a neutralizing antibody [Ghiara ct al. (1994) Science 264, 82-85]. A structural motif has been defined for the peptide segment, employing idealized backbone conformations characterized by ranges of virtual C-alpha torsion angles and bond angles. A search of 122 high-resolution protein crystal structures has permitted identification of 24 examples of similar structural motifs. Two major conformational families have been identified, which differ primarily in the conformation at residue 3. The observed conformation at residue 3 in family 1 is left-handed helical (alpha(L)) and that in family 2 is right-handed helical (alpha(R)). Of the 10 examples in family 1, 9 examples have Gly residues at position 3. Of the 12 examples in family 2, 7 examples have Asn/Asp at position 3. Computer modeling of the V3 loop tip sequence using the two backbone conformational families as starting points leads to minimum-energy conformations in which antigenically important side-chains occupy similar spatial arrangements. This stereochemical analysis of the V3 loop tip sequence suggests a rational basis for the design of synthetic analog peptides for use as viral antagonists or synthetic antigens. (C) Munksgaard 1995.

New Solid State Forms of the Anti-HIV Drug Efavirenz. Conformational Flexibility and High Z ` Issues

Structural information on the solid forms of efavirenz, a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, is limited, although various polymorphic forms of this drug have been patented. We report here structural studies of four new crystal forms a pure form, a cyclohexane solvate, and cocrystals with 1,4-cyclohexanedione and 4,4'-bipyridine. Temperature dependent single-crystal to single-crystal phase transitions are observed for the pure form and for the cyclohexane solvate with an increase in the number of symmetry independent molecules, Z', upon a lowering of temperature. Other issues related to these solid forms, such as thermal stability, conformational flexibility, and high Z' occurrences, are addressed by using a combined experimental and computational approach.

Design of a Non-glycosylated Outer Domain-derived HIV-1 gp120 Immunogen That Binds to CD4 and Induces Neutralizing Antibodies

The outer domain (OD) of the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein gp120 is an important target for vaccine design as it contains a number of conserved epitopes, including a large fraction of the CD4 binding site.Attempts to design OD-based immunogens in the past have met with little success. We report the design and characterization of an Escherichia coli-expressed OD-based immunogen (ODEC), based on the sequence of the HxBc2 strain. The ODEC-designed immunogen lacks the variable loops V1V2 and V3 and incorporates 11 designed mutations at the interface of the inner and the outer domains of gp120. Biophysical studies showed that ODEC is folded and protease-resistant, whereas ODEC lacking the designed mutations is highly aggregation-prone. In contrast to previously characterized OD constructs, ODEC bound CD4 and the broadly neutralizing antibody b12 but not the non-neutralizing antibodies b6 and F105. Upon immunization in rabbits, ODEC was highly immunogenic,and the sera showed measurable neutralization for four subtype B and one subtype C virus including two b12-resistant viruses. In contrast,sera from rabbits immunized with gp120 did not neutralize any of the viruses. ODEC is the first example of a gp120 fragment-based immunogen that yields significant neutralizing antibodies.

Vastasyntyneen varsan sepsis osa II - Infektion diagnosoiminen, aiheuttajamikrobit ja mikrobilääkeresistenssi

Sepsis eli infektion aiheuttama yleistynyt tulehdusreaktio on merkittävä kuolleisuuden aiheuttaja vastasyntyneillä varsoilla. Kirjallisuuskatsauksessa on käsitelty sepsiksen patofysiologiaa ja kliinisiä oireita vastasyntyneillä varsoilla sekä sepsikselle altistavia tekijöitä. Vastasyntyneen varsan sepsiksen diagnosoimisessa kliinisten oireiden arvioinnilla on keskeinen merkitys sairauden varhaisessa tunnistamisessa ja hoidon aloittamisessa. Sairauden nopean etenemisen ja veriviljelytulosten hitaan valmistumisen vuoksi antibioottihoito joudutaan aloittamaan jo ennen viljelytulosten valmistumista. Veriviljelyllä on kuitenkin tärkeä merkitys sepsisdiagnoosin ja valitun antibioottihoidon varmistamisessa. Sairaalakohtaisten veriviljelynäytetulosten seuranta mahdollistaa ensisijaisen mikrobilääkkeen valinnan aiemmin eristettyjen aiheuttajamikrobien esiintyvyyden ja mikrobilääkeherkkyyksien perusteella. Yleisimpiä vastasyntyneen varsan sepsiksen aiheuttajia ovat kirjallisuuden mukaan suolistoperäiset gram-negatiiviset bakteerit. Escherichia colin osuus vastasyntyneiltä varsoilta otetuista veriviljelynäytteistä eristetyistä bakteerikannoista on vaihdellut eri tutkimuksissa 18,7 - 50,0 %. Pohjois-Amerikassa tehdyissä tutkimuksissa varsojen veriviljelynäytteistä eristettyjen E.coli -kantojen herkkyys yleisesti käytetylle trimetopriimi-sulfadiatsiinille on ollut huono (57–71 %). Penisilliinin ja gentamisiinin yhdistelmälle enterobakteerien herkkyyden on raportoitu olevan hyvä. Suomessa tilanteen on arvioitu olevan parempi. Tutkimuksessa kartoitettiin retrospektiivisesti veriviljelyn käyttöä varsojen sepsiksen diagnostiikassa, sepsiksen aiheuttajamikrobien esiintymistä ja mikrobilääkkeiden käyttöä Yliopistollisessa eläinsairaalassa (YES) vuosina 2004–2006. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu yhteensä 90 korkeintaan 10 päivän ikäisenä YES:aan tuodun varsan potilastiedoista. Sairaalaan saapuneista varsoista 30 % oli otettu veriviljelynäyte. Veriviljelynäytteistä positiivisia oli 62,5 %. 60 % positiivisista näytteistä kasvoi vähintään kahta bakteerilajia. Yleisin aiheuttajabakteeri oli Escherichia coli (23,1 %). Yksi eristetyistä E.coli -kannoista oli resistentti ampisilliinille, gentamisiinille ja trimetopriimi-sulfadiatsiinille. Aineiston pienen koon vuoksi tutkimus ei kuitenkaan anna luotettavaa kuvaa eristettyjen aiheuttajamikrobien mikrobilääkeherkkyydestä laajemmin. Sekakasvujen osuus oli suuri ja tyypillisten veriviljelynäytteitä kontaminoivien bakteerilajien (Streptococcus viridans sp., Micrococcus sp., koagulaasinegatiiviset stafylokokit) osuus oli yli 30 % eristetyistä bakteerikannoista. Tämä viittaa ongelmiin veriviljelynäytteenottotekniikassa riittävän aseptiikan saavuttamien osalta. Koagulaasinegatiiviset stafylokokit voivat myös aiheuttaa sepsiksen, mutta niiden merkitys vastasyntyneiden varsojen sepsiksen aiheuttajina on epäselvä.

Population projection for Namibia 2011-2020 - With an estimation of the impact of HIV/AIDS

This study presents a population projection for Namibia for years 2011–2020. In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including Namibia, the population growth is still continuing even though the fertility rates have declined. However, many of these countries suffer from a large HIV epidemic that is slowing down the population growth. In Namibia, the epidemic has been severe. Therefore, it is important to assess the effect of HIV/AIDS on the population of Namibia in the future. Demographic research on Namibia has not been very extensive, and data on population is not widely available. According to the studies made, fertility has been shown to be generally declining and mortality has been significantly increasing due to AIDS. Previous population projections predict population growth for Namibia in the near future, yet HIV/AIDS is affecting the future population developments. For the projection constructed in this study, data on population is taken from the two most recent censuses, from 1991 and 2001. Data on HIV is available from HIV Sentinel Surveys 1992–2008, which test pregnant women for HIV in antenatal clinics. Additional data are collected from different sources and recent studies. The projection is made with software (EPP and Spectrum) specially designed for developing countries with scarce data. The projection includes two main scenarios which have different assumptions concerning the development of the HIV epidemic. In addition, two hypothetical scenarios are made: the first considering the case where HIV epidemic would never have existed and the second considering the case where HIV treatment would never have existed. The results indicate population growth for Namibia. Population in the 2001 census was 1.83 million and is projected to result in 2.38/2.39 million in 2020 in the first two scenarios. Without HIV, population would be 2.61 million and without treatment 2.30 million in 2020. Urban population is growing faster than rural. Even though AIDS is increasing mortality, the past high fertility rates still keep young adult age groups quite large. The HIV epidemic shows to be slowing down, but it is still increasing the mortality of the working-aged population. The initiation of HIV treatment in 2004 in the public sector seems to have had an effect on many projected indicators, diminishing the impact of HIV on the population. For example, the rise of mortality is slowing down.

Estimating Frequencies of Minority Nevirapine-Resistant Strains in Chronically HIV-1-Infected Individuals Naive to Nevirapine by Using Stochastic Simulations and a Mathematical Model

Nevirapine forms the mainstay of our efforts to curtail the pediatric AIDS epidemic through prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1. A key limitation, however, is the rapid selection of HIV-1 strains resistant to nevirapine following the administration of a single dose. This rapid selection of resistance suggests that nevirapine-resistant strains preexist in HIV-1 patients and may adversely affect outcomes of treatment. The frequencies of nevirapine-resistant strains in vivo, however, remain poorly estimated, possibly because they exist as a minority below current assay detection limits. Here, we employ stochastic simulations and a mathematical model to estimate the frequencies of strains carrying different combinations of the common nevirapine resistance mutations K103N, V106A, Y181C, Y188C, and G190A in chronically infected HIV-1 patients naive to nevirapine. We estimate the relative fitness of mutant strains from an independent analysis of previous competitive growth assays. We predict that single mutants are likely to preexist in patients at frequencies (similar to 0.01% to 0.001%) near or below current assay detection limits (>0.01%), emphasizing the need for more-sensitive assays. The existence of double mutants is subject to large stochastic variations. Triple and higher mutants are predicted not to exist. Our estimates are robust to variations in the recombination rate, cellular superinfection frequency, and the effective population size. Thus, with 10(7) to 10(8) infected cells in HIV-1 patients, even when undetected, nevirapine-resistant genomes may exist in substantial numbers and compromise efforts to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1, accelerate the failure of subsequent antiretroviral treatments, and facilitate the transmission of drug resistance.

Trichinella spiralis ja Trichinella nativa -loisten erittyminen ulosteisiin rotalla kokeellisen infektion jälkeen

Trichinella-suvun loiset ovat maailmanlaajuisesti levinneitä sukkulamatoja, jotka ovat infektiivisiä useille eläinlajeille ja tarttuvat myös ihmiseen. Loiset aiheuttavat ongelmia muun muassa lihateollisuudessa, haittaavat tuotantoeläinten terveyttä ja ovat elintarviketurvallisuusriski. Eri Trichinella-lajien infektiivisyys eri isäntäeläinlajeissa vaihtelee. Esimerkiksi Trichinella spiralis aiheuttaa rotassa voimakkaamman infektion kuin Trichinella nativa, mutta syytä loislajien erilaiseen infektiviteettiin samassa isäntäeläinlajissa ei tiedetä. Trichinella-loisten elämänkiertoon kuuluu sekä enteraali- eli suolistovaihe että parenteraalivaihe eli suoliston ulkopuolella tapahtuva vaihe. Vielä on epävarmaa, missä vaiheessa elämänkiertoa loislajien selviytyminen rotassa eroaa toisistaan. Tutkielmani kokeellisen osuuden tarkoituksena oli selvittää rotan ulosteita tutkimalla, kiinnittyykö toinen tutkituista Trichinella-lajeista (T. spiralis tai T. nativa) paremmin suolen seinämään ja tuleeko toinen nopeammin ulos suolesta. Mikäli rotan heikosti infektoivat T. nativa -loiset tulevat T. spiralis -loisia nopeammin ulosteen mukana ulos suolistosta, voidaan olettaa suolistovaiheen immuunipuolustuksen olevan ainakin osatekijä rotan kyvyssä puolustautua T. nativa –infektioita vastaan. Työ suoritettiin infektoimalla kuusi rottaa T. spiralis -loisella ja kuusi rottaa T. nativa -loisella. Lisäksi tutkimuksessa oli mukana kolme kontrollirottaa, joita ei infektoitu. Rottien ulosteet kerättiin seitsemän viikon ajalta, ja näytteet tutkittiin FLOTAC-menetelmällä. Ulosteista etsittiin Trichinella-loisten aikuis- ja toukkamuotoja. Ulostenäytteistä ei löytynyt yhtään loista. Kokeen jälkeen rotat lopetettiin ja niiden suolet tutkittiin, mutta suolistakaan ei löytynyt loisia. Lopetettujen eläinten lihasnäytteitä tutkimalla eläinten todettiin infektoituneen kyseessä olleelle loislajille tyypillisellä voimakkuudella. Kontrollirotista ei löydetty loisia. Koska rottien ulosteista tai suolista ei löytynyt loisia huolimatta onnistuneista infektoinneista, voidaan todeta käytetyn menetelmän olleen kokeeseen sopimaton. Mikäli loisia olisi löytynyt ulosteista, olisi ollut tarpeellista verrata eri lajeilla infektoitujen ryhmien tuloksia. Tieto siitä, tapahtuuko rotan suolistossa jotain, mikä heikentää toisen Trichinella-lajin infektiivisyyttä, olisi ollut merkittävä. Saadut tulokset olisivat olleet hyödyksi pohdittaessa parempia keinoja Trichinella-tartuntojen ennaltaehkäisyyn ja infektioiden hoitoon.

Taking Multiple Infections of Cells and Recombination into Account Leads to Small Within-Host Effective-Population-Size Estimates of HIV-1

Whether HIV-1 evolution in infected individuals is dominated by deterministic or stochastic effects remains unclear because current estimates of the effective population size of HIV-1 in vivo, N-e, are widely varying. Models assuming HIV-1 evolution to be neutral estimate N-e similar to 10(2)-10(4), smaller than the inverse mutation rate of HIV-1 (similar to 10(5)), implying the predominance of stochastic forces. In contrast, a model that includes selection estimates N-e>10(5), suggesting that deterministic forces would hold sway. The consequent uncertainty in the nature of HIV-1 evolution compromises our ability to describe disease progression and outcomes of therapy. We perform detailed bit-string simulations of viral evolution that consider large genome lengths and incorporate the key evolutionary processes underlying the genomic diversification of HIV-1 in infected individuals, namely, mutation, multiple infections of cells, recombination, selection, and epistatic interactions between multiple loci. Our simulations describe quantitatively the evolution of HIV-1 diversity and divergence in patients. From comparisons of our simulations with patient data, we estimate N-e similar to 10(3)-10(4), implying predominantly stochastic evolution. Interestingly, we find that N-e and the viral generation time are correlated with the disease progression time, presenting a route to a priori prediction of disease progression in patients. Further, we show that the previous estimate of N-e>10(5) reduces as the frequencies of multiple infections of cells and recombination assumed increase. Our simulations with N-e similar to 10(3)-10(4) may be employed to estimate markers of disease progression and outcomes of therapy that depend on the evolution of viral diversity and divergence.