Commercial real estate return distributions: a review of literature and empirical evidence

This paper review the literature on the distribution of commercial real estate returns. There is growing evidence that the assumption of normality in returns is not safe. Distributions are found to be peaked, fat-tailed and, tentatively, skewed. There is some evidence of compound distributions and non-linearity. Public traded real estate assets (such as property company or REIT shares) behave in a fashion more similar to other common stocks. However, as in equity markets, it would be unwise to assume normality uncritically. Empirical evidence for UK real estate markets is obtained by applying distribution fitting routines to IPD Monthly Index data for the aggregate index and selected sub-sectors. It is clear that normality is rejected in most cases. It is often argued that observed differences in real estate returns are a measurement issue resulting from appraiser behaviour. However, unsmoothing the series does not assist in modelling returns. A large proportion of returns are close to zero. This would be characteristic of a thinly-traded market where new information arrives infrequently. Analysis of quarterly data suggests that, over longer trading periods, return distributions may conform more closely to those found in other asset markets. These results have implications for the formulation and implementation of a multi-asset portfolio allocation strategy.

Forward pricing and the housing market: the pre-sales housing system in Taiwan

In countries that have experienced rapid economic development, the need to establish more efficient markets in which private property can be constructed has induced some innovative solutions. One such solution is the phenomenon of a pre-sales market of the kind that can be observed in Taiwan, Korea, and more recently in China. Developers sell their property before building is started in order to acquire financing for the development companies. This paper discusses the process and, by recognising the analogy between the pre-sales market and forwards markets, analyses the implications for developers

Valuation and arbitrage

The use of discounted cash flow (DCF) methods in investment valuation and appraisal is argued by many academics as being rational and more rigorous than the traditional capitalisation model. However those advocates of DCF should be cautious in their claims for rationality. The various DCF models all rely upon an all-encompassing equated yield (IRR) within the calculation. This paper will argue that this is a simplification of the risk perception which the investor places on the income profile from property. In determining the long term capital value of a property an 'average' DCF method will produce the 'correct' price, however, the individual short term values of each cash-flow may differ significantly. In the UK property market today, where we are facing a period in which prices are not expected to rise generally at the same rate or with such persistence as hitherto, investors and tenants are increasingly concerned with the down side implications of rental growth and investors may indeed be interested in trading property over a shorter investment horizon than they had originally planned. The purpose of this paper is therefore to bring to the analysis a rigorous framework which can be used to analyse the constituent cash flows within the freehold valuation. We show that the arbitrage analysis lends itself to segregating the capital value of the cash flows in a way which is more appropriate for financial investors

Prediction of novel and analogous folds using fragment assembly and fold recognition

A number of new and newly improved methods for predicting protein structure developed by the Jones–University College London group were used to make predictions for the CASP6 experiment. Structures were predicted with a combination of fold recognition methods (mGenTHREADER, nFOLD, and THREADER) and a substantially enhanced version of FRAGFOLD, our fragment assembly method. Attempts at automatic domain parsing were made using DomPred and DomSSEA, which are based on a secondary structure parsing algorithm and additionally for DomPred, a simple local sequence alignment scoring function. Disorder prediction was carried out using a new SVM-based version of DISOPRED. Attempts were also made at domain docking and “microdomain” folding in order to build complete chain models for some targets.

Resistance to the first and second generation anticoagulant rodenticides: a new perspective

Warfarin resistance was first discovered among Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) populations in Scotland in 1958 and further reports of resistance, both in this species and in others, soon followed from other parts of Europe and the United States. Researchers quickly defined the practical impact of these resistance phenomena and developed robust methods by which to monitor their spread. These tasks were relatively simple because of the high degree of immunity to warfarin conferred by the resistance genes. Later, the second generation anticoagulants were introduced to control rodents resistant to the warfarin-like compounds, but resistance to difenacoum, bromadiolone and brodifacoum is now reported in certain localities in Europe and elsewhere. However, the adoption of test methods designed initially for use with the first generation compounds to identify resistance to compounds of the second generation has led to some practical difficulties in conducting tests and in establishing meaningful resistance baselines. In particular, the results of certain test methodologies are difficult to interpret in terms of the likely impact on practical control treatments of the resistance phenomena they seek to identify. This paper defines rodenticide resistance in the context of both first and second generation anticoagulants. It examines the advantages and disadvantages of existing laboratory and field methods used in the detection of rodent populations resistant to anticoagulants and proposes some improvements in the application of these techniques and in the interpretation of their results.

Solvent-dependent modulation of metal–metal electronic interactions in a dinuclear cyanoruthenate complex: a detailed electrochemical, spectroscopic and computational study

The dinuclear complex [{Ru(CN)4}2(μ-bppz)]4− shows a strongly solvent-dependent metal–metal electronic interaction which allows the mixed-valence state to be switched from class 2 to class 3 by changing solvent from water to CH2Cl2. In CH2Cl2 the separation between the successive Ru(II)/Ru(III) redox couples is 350 mVand the IVCT band (from the UV/Vis/NIR spectroelectrochemistry) is characteristic of a borderline class II/III or class III mixed valence state. In water, the redox separation is only 110 mVand the much broader IVCT transition is characteristic of a class II mixed-valence state. This is consistent with the observation that raising and lowering the energy of the d(π) orbitals in CH2Cl2 or water, respectively, will decrease or increase the energy gap to the LUMO of the bppz bridging ligand, which provides the delocalisation pathway via electron-transfer. IR spectroelectrochemistry could only be carried out successfully in CH2Cl2 and revealed class III mixed-valence behaviour on the fast IR timescale. In contrast to this, time-resolved IR spectroscopy showed that the MLCTexcited state, which is formulated as RuIII(bppz˙−)RuII and can therefore be considered as a mixed-valence Ru(II)/Ru(III) complex with an intermediate bridging radical anion ligand, is localised on the IR timescale with spectroscopically distinct Ru(II) and Ru(III) termini. This is because the necessary electron-transfer via the bppz ligand is more difficult because of the additional electron on bppz˙− which raises the orbital through which electron exchange occurs in energy. DFT calculations reproduce the electronic spectra of the complex in all three Ru(II)/Ru(II), Ru(II)/Ru(III) and Ru(III)/Ru(III) calculations in both water and CH2Cl2 well as long as an explicit allowance is made for the presence of water molecules hydrogen-bonded to the cyanides in the model used. They also reproduce the excited-state IR spectra of both [Ru(CN)4(μ-bppz)]2– and [{Ru(CN)4}2(μ-bppz)]4− very well in both solvents. The reorganization of the water solvent shell indicates a possible dynamical reason for the longer life time of the triplet state in water compared to CH2Cl2.

Lexical access, story re-telling and sequencing skills in adults who clutter and those who do not

Cluttering is a rate-based disorder of fluency, the scope of whose diagnostic criteria currently remains unclear. This paper reports preliminary findings from a larger study which aims to determine whether cluttering can be associated with language disturbances as well as motor and rate based ones. Subtests from the Mt Wilga High Level Language Test (MWHLLT) were used to determine whether people who clutter (PWC) have word finding difficulties, and use significantly more maze behaviours compared to controls, during story re-telling and simple sequencing tasks. Independent t tests showed that PWC were significantly slower than control participants in lexical access and sentence completion tasks, but returned mixed findings when PWCs were required to name items within a semantic category. PWC produced significantly more maze behaviour than controls in a task where participants were required to explain how to undertake commonly performed actions, but no difference in use of maze behaviour was found between the two groups when retelling a story from memory. The implications of these findings are discussed

House price dynamics and their reaction to macroeconomic changes

This article applies a three-regime Markov switching model to investigate the impact of the macroeconomy on the dynamics of the residential real estate market in the US. Focusing on the period between 1960 and 2011, the methodology implemented allows for a clearer understanding of the drivers of the real estate market in “boom”, “steady-state” and “crash” regimes. Our results show that the sensitivity of the real estate market to economic changes is regime-dependent. The paper then proceeds to examine whether policymakers are able to influence a regime switch away from the crash regime. We find that a decrease in interest rate spreads could be an effective catalyst to precipitate such a change of state.

Commercial real estate and equity market bubbles: are they contagious to REITs?

This paper uses a regime-switching approach to determine whether prices in the US stock, direct real estate and indirect real estate markets are driven by the presence of speculative bubbles. The results show significant evidence of the existence of periodically partially collapsing speculative bubbles in all three markets. A multivariate bubble model is then developed and implemented to evaluate whether the stock and real estate bubbles spill over into REITs. The underlying stock market bubble is found to be a stronger influence on the securitised real estate market bubble than that of the property market. Furthermore, the findings suggest a transmission of speculative bubbles from the direct real estate to the stock market, although this link is not present for the returns themselves.

Pollen-based reconstructions of biome distributions for Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) at 0,6000 and 18,000 14C yr B.P.

Aim  This paper documents reconstructions of the vegetation patterns in Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) in the mid-Holocene and at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Methods  Vegetation patterns were reconstructed from pollen data using an objective biomization scheme based on plant functional types. The biomization scheme was first tested using 535 modern pollen samples from 377 sites, and then applied unchanged to fossil pollen samples dating to 6000 ± 500 or 18,000 ± 1000 14C yr bp. Results  1. Tests using surface pollen sample sites showed that the biomization scheme is capable of reproducing the modern broad-scale patterns of vegetation distribution. The north–south gradient in temperature, reflected in transitions from cool evergreen needleleaf forest in the extreme south through temperate rain forest or wet sclerophyll forest (WSFW) and into tropical forests, is well reconstructed. The transitions from xerophytic through sclerophyll woodlands and open forests to closed-canopy forests, which reflect the gradient in plant available moisture from the continental interior towards the coast, are reconstructed with less geographical precision but nevertheless the broad-scale pattern emerges. 2. Differences between the modern and mid-Holocene vegetation patterns in mainland Australia are comparatively small and reflect changes in moisture availability rather than temperature. In south-eastern Australia some sites show a shift towards more moisture-stressed vegetation in the mid-Holocene with xerophytic woods/scrub and temperate sclerophyll woodland and shrubland at sites characterized today by WSFW or warm-temperate rain forest (WTRF). However, sites in the Snowy Mountains, on the Southern Tablelands and east of the Great Dividing Range have more moisture-demanding vegetation in the mid-Holocene than today. South-western Australia was slightly drier than today. The single site in north-western Australia also shows conditions drier than today in the mid-Holocene. Changes in the tropics are also comparatively small, but the presence of WTRF and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the mid-Holocene, in sites occupied today by cool-temperate rain forest, indicate warmer conditions. 3. Expansion of xerophytic vegetation in the south and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the north indicate drier conditions across mainland Australia at the LGM. None of these changes are informative about the degree of cooling. However the evidence from the tropics, showing lowering of the treeline and forest belts, indicates that conditions were between 1 and 9 °C (depending on elevation) colder. The encroachment of tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland into lowland evergreen broadleaf forest implies greater aridity. Main conclusions  This study provides the first continental-scale reconstruction of mid-Holocene and LGM vegetation patterns from Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) using an objective biomization scheme. These data will provide a benchmark for evaluation of palaeoclimate simulations within the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.

HIV care and interdependence in Tanzania and Uganda

Within many communities in East Africa, people living with HIV are increasingly involved in delivering home-based care and healthcare for family members and peers. Such interdependent caring relations blur conventional boundaries between ‘care-givers’ and ‘care-recipients’, and constructions of 'service users' as dependent, passive recipients of healthcare. The participation of people living with HIV in healthcare provision, home-based care and peer support groups can enhance ‘relational autonomy’ for both care-givers and care-recipients, although such initiatives often play out in highly gendered ways. The care and support of people living with HIV, particularly the emotion work of caring, however, continues to be associated with women's and girls' assumed 'natural' nurturing roles and has been largely devalued and overlooked in HIV policy and practice to date.

Bone mineral density in postmenopausal women with and without breast cancer

OBJECTIVE: The values of bone mineral density (BMD) were compared in postmenopausal women with and without breast cancer. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted, including 51 breast cancer survivors (BCS) and 71 women without breast cancer, who were non-users of hormone therapy, tamoxifen, or aromatase inhibitors. BMD T-scores and measurements in grams per centimeter squared (g/cm²) were obtained at the femoral neck, trochanter, Ward's triangle, and lumbar spine. Osteopenia and osteoporosis were grouped and categorized as abnormal BMD. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) of abnormal BMD values as measures of association, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for age, years since menopause, parity, and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: The mean age of the women with and without breast cancer was 54.7 ± 5.8 years and 58.2 ± 4.8 years (p < 0.01), respectively. After adjusting for age, parity and BMI, abnormal BMD at the femoral neck (adjusted OR: 4.8; 95% CI: 1.5-15.4), trochanter (adjusted OR: 4.6; 95% CI: 1.4-15.5), and Ward's triangle (adjusted OR: 4.5; 95% CI: 1.5-12.9) were significantly more frequent in postmenopausal BCS than in women without breast cancer. Postmenopausal BCS had a significantly lower mean BMD at the trochanter (0.719 vs. 0.809 g/cm², p < 0.01) and at the Ward's triangle (0.751 vs. 0.805 g/cm², p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of abnormal BMD was higher in postmenopausal BCS than in postmenopausal women without breast cancer. Bone health requires special vigilance and the adoption of interventions should be instituted early to minimize bone loss in BCS.

Bone mass and the CAG and GGN androgen receptor polymorphisms in young men

[EN] BACKGROUND: To determine whether androgen receptor (AR) CAG (polyglutamine) and GGN (polyglycine) polymorphisms influence bone mineral density (BMD), osteocalcin and free serum testosterone concentration in young men. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Whole body, lumbar spine and femoral bone mineral content (BMC) and BMD, Dual X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA), AR repeat polymorphisms (PCR), osteocalcin and free testosterone (ELISA) were determined in 282 healthy men (28.6+/-7.6 years). Individuals were grouped as CAG short (CAG(S)) if harboring repeat lengths of < or = 21 or CAG long (CAG(L)) if CAG > 21, and GGN was considered short (GGN(S)) or long (GGN(L)) if GGN < or = 23 or > 23. There was an inverse association between logarithm of CAG and GGN length and Ward's Triangle BMC (r = -0.15 and -0.15, P<0.05, age and height adjusted). No associations between CAG or GGN repeat length and regional BMC or BMD were observed after adjusting for age. Whole body and regional BMC and BMD values were similar in men harboring CAG(S), CAG(L), GGN(S) or GGN(L) AR repeat polymorphisms. Men harboring the combination CAG(L)+GGN(L) had 6.3 and 4.4% higher lumbar spine BMC and BMD than men with the haplotype CAG(S)+GGN(S) (both P<0.05). Femoral neck BMD was 4.8% higher in the CAG(S)+GGN(S) compared with the CAG(L)+GGN(S) men (P<0.05). CAG(S), CAG(L), GGN(S), GGN(L) men had similar osteocalcin concentration as well as the four CAG-GGN haplotypes studied. CONCLUSION: AR polymorphisms have an influence on BMC and BMD in healthy adult humans, which cannot be explained through effects in osteoblastic activity.

Bioremediation of PAHs - Limitations and soultions

Introduction 1.1 Occurrence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in the environment Worldwide industrial and agricultural developments have released a large number of natural and synthetic hazardous compounds into the environment due to careless waste disposal, illegal waste dumping and accidental spills. As a result, there are numerous sites in the world that require cleanup of soils and groundwater. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are one of the major groups of these contaminants (Da Silva et al., 2003). PAHs constitute a diverse class of organic compounds consisting of two or more aromatic rings with various structural configurations (Prabhu and Phale, 2003). Being a derivative of benzene, PAHs are thermodynamically stable. In addition, these chemicals tend to adhere to particle surfaces, such as soils, because of their low water solubility and strong hydrophobicity, and this results in greater persistence under natural conditions. This persistence coupled with their potential carcinogenicity makes PAHs problematic environmental contaminants (Cerniglia, 1992; Sutherland, 1992). PAHs are widely found in high concentrations at many industrial sites, particularly those associated with petroleum, gas production and wood preserving industries (Wilson and Jones, 1993). 1.2 Remediation technologies Conventional techniques used for the remediation of soil polluted with organic contaminants include excavation of the contaminated soil and disposal to a landfill or capping - containment - of the contaminated areas of a site. These methods have some drawbacks. The first method simply moves the contamination elsewhere and may create significant risks in the excavation, handling and transport of hazardous material. Additionally, it is very difficult and increasingly expensive to find new landfill sites for the final disposal of the material. The cap and containment method is only an interim solution since the contamination remains on site, requiring monitoring and maintenance of the isolation barriers long into the future, with all the associated costs and potential liability. A better approach than these traditional methods is to completely destroy the pollutants, if possible, or transform them into harmless substances. Some technologies that have been used are high-temperature incineration and various types of chemical decomposition (for example, base-catalyzed dechlorination, UV oxidation). However, these methods have significant disadvantages, principally their technological complexity, high cost , and the lack of public acceptance. Bioremediation, on the contrast, is a promising option for the complete removal and destruction of contaminants. 1.3 Bioremediation of PAH contaminated soil & groundwater Bioremediation is the use of living organisms, primarily microorganisms, to degrade or detoxify hazardous wastes into harmless substances such as carbon dioxide, water and cell biomass Most PAHs are biodegradable unter natural conditions (Da Silva et al., 2003; Meysami and Baheri, 2003) and bioremediation for cleanup of PAH wastes has been extensively studied at both laboratory and commercial levels- It has been implemented at a number of contaminated sites, including the cleanup of the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska in 1989, the Mega Borg spill off the Texas coast in 1990 and the Burgan Oil Field, Kuwait in 1994 (Purwaningsih, 2002). Different strategies for PAH bioremediation, such as in situ , ex situ or on site bioremediation were developed in recent years. In situ bioremediation is a technique that is applied to soil and groundwater at the site without removing the contaminated soil or groundwater, based on the provision of optimum conditions for microbiological contaminant breakdown.. Ex situ bioremediation of PAHs, on the other hand, is a technique applied to soil and groundwater which has been removed from the site via excavation (soil) or pumping (water). Hazardous contaminants are converted in controlled bioreactors into harmless compounds in an efficient manner. 1.4 Bioavailability of PAH in the subsurface Frequently, PAH contamination in the environment is occurs as contaminants that are sorbed onto soilparticles rather than in phase (NAPL, non aqueous phase liquids). It is known that the biodegradation rate of most PAHs sorbed onto soil is far lower than rates measured in solution cultures of microorganisms with pure solid pollutants (Alexander and Scow, 1989; Hamaker, 1972). It is generally believed that only that fraction of PAHs dissolved in the solution can be metabolized by microorganisms in soil. The amount of contaminant that can be readily taken up and degraded by microorganisms is defined as bioavailability (Bosma et al., 1997; Maier, 2000). Two phenomena have been suggested to cause the low bioavailability of PAHs in soil (Danielsson, 2000). The first one is strong adsorption of the contaminants to the soil constituents which then leads to very slow release rates of contaminants to the aqueous phase. Sorption is often well correlated with soil organic matter content (Means, 1980) and significantly reduces biodegradation (Manilal and Alexander, 1991). The second phenomenon is slow mass transfer of pollutants, such as pore diffusion in the soil aggregates or diffusion in the organic matter in the soil. The complex set of these physical, chemical and biological processes is schematically illustrated in Figure 1. As shown in Figure 1, biodegradation processes are taking place in the soil solution while diffusion processes occur in the narrow pores in and between soil aggregates (Danielsson, 2000). Seemingly contradictory studies can be found in the literature that indicate the rate and final extent of metabolism may be either lower or higher for sorbed PAHs by soil than those for pure PAHs (Van Loosdrecht et al., 1990). These contrasting results demonstrate that the bioavailability of organic contaminants sorbed onto soil is far from being well understood. Besides bioavailability, there are several other factors influencing the rate and extent of biodegradation of PAHs in soil including microbial population characteristics, physical and chemical properties of PAHs and environmental factors (temperature, moisture, pH, degree of contamination). Figure 1: Schematic diagram showing possible rate-limiting processes during bioremediation of hydrophobic organic contaminants in a contaminated soil-water system (not to scale) (Danielsson, 2000). 1.5 Increasing the bioavailability of PAH in soil Attempts to improve the biodegradation of PAHs in soil by increasing their bioavailability include the use of surfactants , solvents or solubility enhancers.. However, introduction of synthetic surfactant may result in the addition of one more pollutant. (Wang and Brusseau, 1993).A study conducted by Mulder et al. showed that the introduction of hydropropyl-ß-cyclodextrin (HPCD), a well-known PAH solubility enhancer, significantly increased the solubilization of PAHs although it did not improve the biodegradation rate of PAHs (Mulder et al., 1998), indicating that further research is required in order to develop a feasible and efficient remediation method. Enhancing the extent of PAHs mass transfer from the soil phase to the liquid might prove an efficient and environmentally low-risk alternative way of addressing the problem of slow PAH biodegradation in soil.

Bone mineral density in young women with long-standing amenorrhea: limited effect of hormone replacement therapy with ethinylestradiol and desogestrel

To assess bone mineral density (BMD) at different skeletal sites in women with hypothalamic or ovarian amenorrhea and the effect of estrogen-gestagen substitution on BMD we compared BMD of 21 amenorrheic patients with hypothalamic or ovarian amenorrhea with that of a control population of 123 healthy women. All amenorrheic patients were recruited from the outpatient clinic of the Division of Gynecological Endocrinology at the University of Berne, a public University Hospital. One hundred and twenty-three healthy, regularly menstruating women recruited in the Berne area served as a control group. BMD was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). At each site where it was measured, mean BMD was lower in the amenorrheic group than in the control group. Compared with the control group, average BMD in the amenorrheic group was 85% at lumbar spine (p < 0.0001), 92% at femoral neck (p < 0.02), 90% at Ward's triangle (p < 0.03), 92% at tibial diaphysis (p < 0.0001) and 92% at tibial epiphysis (p < 0.03). Fifteen amenorrheic women received estrogen-gestagen replacement therapy (0.03 mg ethinylestradiol and 0.15 mg desogestrel daily for 21 days per month), bone densitometry being repeated within 12-24 months. An annual increase in BMD of 0.2% to 2.9% was noted at all measured sites, the level of significance being reached at the lumbar spine (p < 0.0012) and Ward's triangle (p < 0.033). In conclusion BMD is lower in amenorrheic young women than in a population of normally menstruating, age-matched women in both mainly trabecular (lumbar spine, Ward's triangle, tibial epiphysis) and mainly cortical bone (femoral neck, tibial diaphysis).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)