Stages of knowledge management systems in policing financial crime

A stage model for knowledge management systems in policing financial crime is developed in this paper. Stages of growth models enable identification of organizational maturity and direction. Information technology to support knowledge work of police officers is improving. For example, new information systems supporting police investigations are evolving. Police investigation is an information-rich and knowledge-intensive practice. Its success depends on turning information into evidence. This paper presents an organizing framework for knowledge management systems in policing financial crime. Future case studies will empirically have to illustrate and validate the stage hypothesis developed in this paper.

Analysis of productive performance of crop and animal production systems : an integrated analytical framework

This article presents a two-stage analytical framework that integrates ecological crop (animal) growth and economic frontier production models to analyse the productive efficiency of crop (animal) production systems. The ecological crop (animal) growth model estimates "potential" output levels given the genetic characteristics of crops (animals) and the physical conditions of locations where the crops (animals) are grown (reared). The economic frontier production model estimates "best practice" production levels, taking into account economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity. In the first stage, both ecological crop growth and economic frontier production models are estimated to calculate three measures of productive efficiency: (1) technical efficiency, as the ratio of actual to "best practice" output levels; (2) agronomic efficiency, as the ratio of actual to "potential" output levels; and (3) agro-economic efficiency, as the ratio of "best practice" to "potential" output levels. Also in the first stage, the economic frontier production model identifies factors that determine technical efficiency. In the second stage, agro-economic efficiency is analysed econometrically in relation to economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity. The proposed framework has several important advantages in comparison with existing proposals. Firstly, it allows the systematic incorporation of all physical, economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity in analysing the productive performance of crop and animal production systems. Secondly, the location-specific physical factors are not modelled symmetrically as other economic inputs of production. Thirdly, climate change and technological advancements in crop and animal sciences can be modelled in a "forward-looking" manner. Fourthly, knowledge in agronomy and data from experimental studies can be utilised for socio-economic policy analysis. The proposed framework can be easily applied in empirical studies due to the current availability of ecological crop (animal) growth models, farm or secondary data, and econometric software packages. The article highlights several directions of empirical studies that researchers may pursue in the future.

Energy dependence of methyl-radical adsorption on diamond (001)-(2×1) surface

The deposition of hyperthermal CH3 on diamond (001)-(2×1) surface at room temperature has been studied by means of molecular dynamics simulation using the many-body hydrocarbon potential. The energy threshold effect has been observed. That is, with fixed collision geometry, chemisorption can occur only when the incident energy of CH3 is above a critical value (Eth). Increasing the incident energy, dissociation of hydrogen atoms from the incident molecule was observed. The chemisorption probability of CH3 as a function of its incident energy was calculated and compared with that of C2H2. We found that below 10 eV, the chemisorption probability of C2H2 is much lower than that of CH3 on the same surface. The interesting thing is that it is even lower than that of CH3 on a hydrogen covered surface at the same impact energy. It indicates that the reactive CH3 molecule is the more important species than C2H2 in diamond synthesis at low energy, which is in good agreement with the experimental observation.

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual's previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag-recapture data and tag-recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Nuorten männiköiden kehitys - taimikonhoito ja ensiharvennus

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of location, site type, regeneration method and precommercial thinning on the characteristics and development of young, even-aged, pure Scots pine stands. In addition, the effects of timing and intensity of first commercial thinning on the yield and profitability during the rotation period were also studied. The stand characteristics and external quality of young Scots pine stands and stand-level growth models were based on extensive inventory data of the Finnish Forest Research Institute for young Scots pine stands (3 measurement times, 192 stands). The effect of precommercial thinning on stand development was examined on the basis of long-term experiments (13 stands, 169 plots). The effect of timing and intensity of the first commercial thinning on yield and profitability were based on measurements made in first commercial thinnings (27 stands of Metsähallitus), and the further stand development was modeled using the MOTTI simulator. The thesis was based on four articles and a summary. Stand level growth models were developed for young, even-aged Scots pine stands. The models reliably predicted the development up until the first commercial thinning stage. The stand density of young Scots pine stands in Finland was moderately low compared to the target values. In addition, the external quality of pines was low on average. The low stand density and poor external quality will result in the need for quality tree selection in thinnings, if high quality sawn timber is required. In Northern Finland, only 20% of the dominant trees were classified as normal. This will lead to the situation where external quality will remain relatively poor up until the end of rotation. Early and light precommercial thinning (Hdom 3 m, to a density of 3000 trees per hectare) increased the thinning removal by 40% compared to late and more intensive precommercial thinning (at 7 meters to a density of 2000 trees per hectare). A model for the effect of precommercial thinning on merchantable thinning removal at the first commercial thinning was developed for forest management planning purposes. When the recommended time of first commercial thinning was delayed from a dominant height of 12 m to 16 m, or by ten years, the yield of merchantable wood was doubled. Simultaneously, the current value of the stumpage revenues (with 4% interest rate) was increased on the average by 65% (330 € per hectare). Variation in stumpage prices or interest rates did not have any effect on the final results. Without exception, delaying the first commercial thinning by ten years seemed to be the most profitable method. This presupposes that precommercial thinning has been carried out at the right time and that tree quality aspects do not be specially considered. Furthermore, the wood yield and economic outcome from the entire rotation were similar regardless of whether the first thinning was performed at the time currently recommended or ten years later.

The structure of Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) stems in relation to wood properties of sawn timber

An important challenge in forest industry is to get the appropriate raw material out from the forests to the wood processing industry. Growth and stem reconstruction simulators are therefore increasingly integrated in industrial conversion simulators, for linking the properties of wooden products to the three-dimensional structure of stems and their growing conditions. Static simulators predict the wood properties from stem dimensions at the end of a growth simulation period, whereas in dynamic approaches, the structural components, e.g. branches, are incremented along with the growth processes. The dynamic approach can be applied to stem reconstruction by predicting the three-dimensional stem structure from external tree variables (i.e. age, height) as a result of growth to the current state. In this study, a dynamic growth simulator, PipeQual, and a stem reconstruction simulator, RetroSTEM, are adapted to Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) to predict the three-dimensional structure of stems (tapers, branchiness, wood basic density) over time such that both simulators can be integrated in a sawing simulator. The parameterisation of the PipeQual and RetroSTEM simulators for Norway spruce relied on the theoretically based description of tree structure developing in the growth process and following certain conservative structural regularities while allowing for plasticity in the crown development. The crown expressed both regularity and plasticity in its development, as the vertical foliage density peaked regularly at about 5 m from the stem apex, varying below that with tree age and dominance position (Study I). Conservative stem structure was characterized in terms of (1) the pipe ratios between foliage mass and branch and stem cross-sectional areas at crown base, (2) the allometric relationship between foliage mass and crown length, (3) mean branch length relative to crown length and (4) form coefficients in branches and stem (Study II). The pipe ratio between branch and stem cross-sectional area at crown base, and mean branch length relative to the crown length may differ in trees before and after canopy closure, but the variation should be further analysed in stands of different ages and densities with varying site fertilities and climates. The predictions of the PipeQual and RetroSTEM simulators were evaluated by comparing the simulated values to measured ones (Study III, IV). Both simulators predicted stem taper and branch diameter at the individual tree level with a small bias. RetroSTEM predictions of wood density were accurate. For focusing on even more accurate predictions of stem diameters and branchiness along the stem, both simulators should be further improved by revising the following aspects in the simulators: the relationship between foliage and stem sapwood area in the upper stem, the error source in branch sizes, the crown base development and the height growth models in RetroSTEM. In Study V, the RetroSTEM simulator was integrated in the InnoSIM sawing simulator, and according to the pilot simulations, this turned out to be an efficient tool for readily producing stand scale information about stem sizes and structure when approximating the available assortments of wood products.

Uncertainty in forest simulators and forest planning systems

The forest simulator is a computerized model for predicting forest growth and future development as well as effects of forest harvests and treatments. The forest planning system is a decision support tool, usually including a forest simulator and an optimisation model, for finding the optimal forest management actions. The information produced by forest simulators and forest planning systems is used for various analytical purposes and in support of decision making. However, the quality and reliability of this information can often be questioned. Natural variation in forest growth and estimation errors in forest inventory, among other things, cause uncertainty in predictions of forest growth and development. This uncertainty stemming from different sources has various undesirable effects. In many cases outcomes of decisions based on uncertain information are something else than desired. The objective of this thesis was to study various sources of uncertainty and their effects in forest simulators and forest planning systems. The study focused on three notable sources of uncertainty: errors in forest growth predictions, errors in forest inventory data, and stochastic fluctuation of timber assortment prices. Effects of uncertainty were studied using two types of forest growth models, individual tree-level models and stand-level models, and with various error simulation methods. New method for simulating more realistic forest inventory errors was introduced and tested. Also, three notable sources of uncertainty were combined and their joint effects on stand-level net present value estimates were simulated. According to the results, the various sources of uncertainty can have distinct effects in different forest growth simulators. The new forest inventory error simulation method proved to produce more realistic errors. The analysis on the joint effects of various sources of uncertainty provided interesting knowledge about uncertainty in forest simulators.

Production process of Scots pine.

The accompanying collective research report is the result of the research project in 1986­90 between The Finnish Academy and the former Soviet Academy of Sciences. The project was organized around common field work in Finland and in the former Soviet Union and theoretical analyses of tree growth determining processes. Based on theoretical analyses, dynamic stand growth models were made and their parameters were determined utilizing the field results. Annual cycle affects the tree growth. Our theoretical approach was based on adaptation to local climate conditions from Lapland to South Russia. The initiation of growth was described as a simple low and high temperature accumulation driven model. Linking the theoretical model with long term temperature data allowed us to analyze what type of temperature response produced favorable outcome in different climates. Initiation of growth consumes the carbohydrate reserves in plants. We measured the dynamics of insoluble and soluble sugars in the very northern and Karelian conditions. Clear cyclical pattern was observed but the differences between locations were surprisingly small. Analysis of field measurements of CO2 exchange showed that irradiance is the dominating factor causing variation in photosynthetic rate in natural conditions during summer. The effect of other factors is so small that they can be omitted without any considerable loss of accuracy. A special experiment carried out in Hyytiälä showed that the needle living space, defined as the ratio between the shoot cylindric volume and needle surface area, correlates with the shoot photosynthesis. The penetration of irradiance into Scots pine canopy is a complicated phenomenon because of the movement of the sun on the sky and the complicated structure of branches and needles. A moderately simple but balanced forest radiation regime submodel was constructed. It consists of the tree crown and forest structure, the gap probability calculation and the consideration of spatial and temporal variation of radiation inside the forest. The common field excursions in different geographical regions resulted in a lot of experimental data of regularities of woody structures. The water transport seems to be a good common factor to analyse these properties of tree structure. There are evident regressions between cross-sectional areas measured at different locations along the water pathway from fine roots to needles. The observed regressions have clear geographical trends. For example, the same cross-sectional area can support three times higher needle mass in South Russia than in Lapland. Geographical trends can also be seen in shoot and needle structure. Analysis of data published by several Russian authors show, that one ton of needles transpire 42 ton of water a year. This annual amount of transpiration seems to be independent of geographical location, year and site conditions. The produced theoretical and experimental material is utilised in the development of stand growth model that describes the growth and development of Scots pine stands in Finland and the former Soviet Union. The core of the model is carbon and nutrient balances. This means that carbon obtained in photosynthesis is consumed for growth and maintenance and nutrients are taken according to the metabolic needs. The annual photosynthetic production by trees in the stand is determined as a function of irradiance and shading during the active period. The utilisation of the annual photosynthetic production to the growth of different components of trees is based on structural regularities. Since the fundamental metabolic processes are the same in all locations the same growth model structure can be applied in the large range of Scots pine. The annual photosynthetic production and structural regularities determining the allocation of resources have geographical features. The common field measurements enable the application of the model to the analysis of growth and development of stands growing on the five locations of experiments. The model enables the analysis of geographical differences in the growth of Scots pine. For example, the annual photosynthetic production of a 100-year-old stand at Voronez is 3.5 times higher than in Lapland. The share consumed to needle growth (30 %) and to growth of branches (5 %) seems to be the same in all locations. In contrast, the share of fine roots is decreasing when moving from north to south. It is 20 % in Lapland, 15 % in Hyytiälä Central Finland and Kentjärvi Karelia and 15 % in Voronez South Russia. The stem masses (115­113 ton/ha) are rather similar in Hyytiälä, Kentjärvi and Voronez, but rather low (50 ton/ha) in Lapland. In Voronez the height of the trees reach 29 m being in Hyytiälä and Kentjärvi 22 m and in Lapland only 14 m. The present approach enables utilization of structural and functional knowledge, gained in places of intensive research, in the analysis of growth and development of any stand. This opens new possibilities for growth research and also for applications in forestry practice.

The effect of diffusion and overhangs/vacancies on the microstructure of zig-zag thin film

Basing on some growth models of thin film, we have investigated the growth mechanism of glancing angle deposition (GLAD) film. The simulation verifies that the overhangs/vacancies also contribute to the columnar growth as well as the self-shadowing effect for GLAD thin film. Besides, we have studied the effect of the deposition rate, surface and bulk diffusions on the microstructure of thin film using the time-dependent Monte Carlo method. The results show that the surface and bulk diffusions can significantly enhance the packing density of thin film in GLAD growth, and the increase of the deposition rate induce the moderate decrease of the packing density. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

水稻分蘖逆制的可塑性生长发育试验和模型辅助分析: 应用植物生长模型缩减基因型与表现型的间隙

表现型是基因型和环境相互作用的结果，不同环境条件下给定基因型能表达为不同的表型，这是我们所熟知的植物表型可塑性。可塑性一方面帮助植物更好地适应不利环境，但我们也不得不承认可塑性，使得人们难以从表型直接理解基因功能。如今，基因组学快速发展允许解密基因更迅速便捷，甚至发现大量基因。因此，进一步理解可塑性过程的基因背景、理解基因和环境对表型的作用非常必要。由于从基因到表型非线性过程，从而引起基因型和表型差异，期望有效方法或工具能跨越这个横沟。植物生长模型已被开发用来模拟植物响应环境动态关系，并且将参数和环境整合到模型方法中。因此，普遍认为植物生长模型将在探讨复杂可塑性基因功能扮演重要作用。水稻是普遍应用在基因组学和功能基因组学典型的模式植物。水稻分蘖是重要的基因依赖环境敏感的过程，这是农学上非常关注的现象。本文将应用模型方法理解水稻分蘖逆制的可塑性。本研究设计了一个相对优化环境条件下，野生型水稻分蘖逆制试验，该试验有两个处理（1）手工剪切分蘖;（2）一个TDNA突变体，并分别设置对照。本试验在法国国际农业研究发展中心（CIRAD）温室开展，每个试验利用水培方法，培育植株50天左右（营养生长阶段）。在营养生长阶段，定期破坏性测量单个器官的鲜重、干重和单个器官的大小。本文尝试应用两个植物生长模型模拟和解释水稻响应分蘖逆制表型发育。GreenLab是一个植物结构数学模型，已被开发用来模拟植物结构动态和结构功能反馈。植物3D结构决定光捕获和生物产量，然后，生物量分配到新的器官，因此，器官形态结构将发生变化，新阶段的生物量生产将会更新。通过基于最小二乘法的CornerFit软件实现了模型参数优化。另一个模型EcoMeristem，基于作物模型和形态发生概念，用来模拟水稻分生组织活动、器官发生和形态过程等可塑性过程，内部竞争指数Ic主要与环境相关，参数主要描述基因功能。通过植物生长过程模拟与测量的优化，手工提取了模型参数。这两个植物生长模型演示了缩减基因型与表型之间的差距，并实现了水稻响应分蘖完全逆制的可塑性过程。GreenLab模型有一个极好的器官发生基础，但本研究限于单茎拓扑结构。另外，该模型有更长的时间步长，这对描述植物可塑性没有提供足够的分辨能力，这在EcoMeristem模型中得到了解决。很明显，EcoMeristem模型有更弱的结构基础，这可能蕴含了一些可塑性信息的缺失。总体而言，EcoMeristem模型有更专业的可塑性过程、基因环境理解和表达能力。

Numerical simulations of unsteady wet steam flows with non-equilibrium condensation in the nozzle and the steam turbine

Numerical techniques for non-equilibrium condensing flows are presented. Conservation equations for homogeneous gas-liquid two-phase compressible flows are solved by using a finite volume method based on an approximate Riemann solver. The phase change consists of the homogeneous nucleation and growth of existing droplets. Nucleation is computed with the classical Volmer-Frenkel model, corrected for the influence of the droplet temperature being higher than the steam temperature due to latent heat release. For droplet growth, two types of heat transfer model between droplets and the surrounding steam are used: a free molecular flow model and a semi-empirical two-layer model which is deemed to be valid over a wide range of Knudsen number. The computed pressure distribution and Sauter mean droplet diameters in a convergent-divergent (Laval) nozzle are compared with experimental data. Both droplet growth models capture qualitatively the pressure increases due to sudden heat release by the non-equilibrium condensation. However the agreement between computed and experimental pressure distributions is better for the two-layer model. The droplet diameter calculated by this model also agrees well with the experimental value, whereas that predicted by the free molecular model is too small. Condensing flows in a steam turbine cascade are calculated at different Mach numbers and inlet superheat conditions and are compared with experiments. Static pressure traverses downstream from the blade and pressure distributions on the blade surface agree well with experimental results in all cases. Once again, droplet diameters computed with the two-layer model give best agreement with the experiments. Droplet sizes are found to vary across the blade pitch due to the significant variation in expansion rate. Flow patterns including oblique shock waves and condensation-induced pressure increases are also presented and are similar to those shown in the experimental Schlieren photographs. Finally, calculations are presented for periodically unsteady condensing flows in a low expansion rate, convergent-divergent (Laval) nozzle. Depending on the inlet stagnation subcooling, two types of self-excited oscillations appear: a symmetric mode at lower inlet subcooling and an asymmetric mode at higher subcooling. Plots of oscillation frequency versus inlet sub-cooling exhibit a hysteresis loop, in accord with observations made by other researchers for moist air flow. Copyright © 2006 by ASME.

Morphometrics, length-weight relationship and condition of Rastrineobola argentea (Pellegrin 1904) in the Winam Gulf of Lake Victoria (Kenya)

Correlation between total length (TL), fork length (FL) and standard length (SL) of Raslrineobola argentea (pellegrin 1904) in the Winam Gulf of Lake Victoria indicate that FL = 0.92 TL - 0.74 and SL = 0.90 TL - 1.74. Length-weight relationship of log-transformed data shows that the slopes of the regression lines were 3.06 to 3.22 for juveniles, 2.70 to 3.05 for males and 3.24 to 3.71 for females. The slopes were significantly different between groups at at a =0.05. The Fulton's condition factor (K) was highest in December (1.019-1.073) and March/April (1.015-1.030) but lowest in June (1:00-1.025) for all stations. Significant differences between groups demands for the use of different growth models for juveniles, males and females especially for the von Bertalanffy growth equation which uses length-weight relationship. Observed cyclic viations in condition factor suggests two peak breeding seasons for this species in the Winam Gulf. The practical lmplications of these results in stock assessment using length-based fish stock assessment methods is briefly discussed.

Modelling and validation of wet steam flow in a low pressure steam turbine

Results of numerical investigations of the wet steam flow in a three stage low pressure steam turbine test rig are presented. The test rig is a scale model of a modern steam turbine design and provides flow measurements over a range of operating conditions which are used for detailed comparisons with the numerical results. For the numerical analysis a modern CFD code with user defined models for specific wet steam modelling is used. The effect of different theoretical models for nucleation and droplet growth are examined. It is shown that heterogeneous condensation is highly dependent on steam quality and, in this model turbine with high quality steam, a homogeneous theory appears to be the best choice. The homogeneous theory gives good agreement between the test rig traverse measurements and the numerical results. The differences in the droplet size distribution of the three stage turbine are shown for different loads and modelling assumptions. The different droplet growth models can influence the droplet size by a factor of two. An estimate of the influence of unsteady effects is made by means of an unsteady two-dimensional simulation. The unsteady modelling leads to a shift of nucleation into the next blade row. For the investigated three stage turbine the influence due to wake chopping on the condensation process is weak but to confirm this conclusion further investigations are needed in complete three dimensions and on turbines with more stages. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.

Carbonization process of Si(100) by ion-beam bombardment

The evolution of carbonization process on Si as a function of ion dose has been carried out by mass-selected ion-beam deposition technique. 3C-SiC layer has been obtained at low ion dose, which has been observed by reflection high energy electron diffraction and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The chemical states of Si and carbon have also been examined as a function of ion dose by XPS. Carbon enrichment was found regardless of the used ion dose here, which may be due to the high deposition rate. The formation mechanism of SiC has also been discussed based on the subplantation process. The work will also provide further understanding of the ion-bombardment effect. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.