Geografia da mortalidade no trânsito no Brasil

In road safety studies that involve accidents comparisons in distinct geographical spaces or in different periods of time in the same geographical space, the index which lists the number of traffic fatalities with the distance traveled by road transport vehicles is considered more appropriate than the rates related to the population or the fleet. In this paper, the results of an original research are presented, in which the values of the rate of traffic deaths per billion kilometers traveled (IMBQ) by the motor vehicle fleet in Brazil and in each state of the country were estimated. The evaluation was performed based on the official number of fatalities provided by the Ministry of Health and on the amount of fuel sold informed by the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels. In 2009, Brazil presented an index of 52.84 fatalities per billion kilometers, which reveals an extremely alarming situation considering that this value is from 7 to 12 times higher than the one for more developed countries. An important correlation between the death index in the states and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita was observed; in general, the less economically developed is the state, it means, lowest GDP, higher is the IMBQ.

Patterns of regional differentiation in post-Soviet Russia

This doctoral thesis aims at contributing to the literature on transition economies focusing on the Russian Federations and in particular on regional income convergence and fertility patterns. The first two chapter deal with the issue of income convergence across regions. Chapter 1 provides an historical-institutional analysis of the period between the late years of the Soviet Union and the last decade of economic growth and a presentation of the sample with a description of gross regional product composition, agrarian or industrial vocation, labor. Chapter 2 contributes to the literature on exploratory spatial data analysis with a application to a panel of 77 regions in the period 1994-2008. It provides an analysis of spatial patterns and it extends the theoretical framework of growth regressions controlling for spatial correlation and heterogeneity. Chapter 3 analyses the national demographic patterns since 1960 and provides a review of the policies on maternity leave and family benefits. Data sources are the Statistical Yearbooks of USSR, the Statistical Yearbooks of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic and the Demographic Yearbooks of Russia. Chapter 4 analyses the demographic patterns in light of the theoretical framework of the Becker model, the Second Demographic Transition and an economic-crisis argument. With national data from 1960, the theoretically issue of the pro or countercyclical relation between income and fertility is graphically analyzed and discussed, together with female employment and education. With regional data after 1994 different panel data models are tested. Individual level data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey are employed using the logit model. Chapter 5 employs data from the Generations and Gender Survey by UNECE to focus on postponement and second births intentions. Postponement is studied through cohort analysis of mean maternal age at first birth, while the methodology used for second birth intentions is the ordered logit model.

Chlamydia control activities in Europe: cross-sectional survey

Background: Chlamydia is the most commonly reported bacterial sexually transmitted infection in Europe. The objective of the Screening for Chlamydia in Europe (SCREen) project was to describe current and planned chlamydia control activities in Europe. Methods: The authors sent a questionnaire asking about different aspects of chlamydia epidemiology and control to public health and clinical experts in each country in 2007. The principles of sexually transmitted infection control were used to develop a typology comprising five categories of chlamydia control activities. Each country was assigned to a category, based on responses to the questionnaire. Results: Experts in 29 of 33 (88%) invited countries responded. Thirteen of 29 countries (45%) had no current chlamydia control activities. Six countries in this group stated that there were plans to introduce chlamydia screening programmes. There were five countries (17%) with case management guidelines only. Three countries (10%) also recommended case finding amongst partners of diagnosed chlamydia cases or people with another sexually transmitted infection. Six countries (21%) further specified groups of asymptomatic people eligible for opportunistic chlamydia testing. Two countries (7%) reported a chlamydia screening programme. There was no consistent association between the per capita gross domestic product of a country and the intensity of chlamydia control activities (P = 0.816). Conclusion: A newly developed classification system allowed the breadth of ongoing national chlamydia control activities to be described and categorized. Chlamydia control strategies should ensure that clinical guidelines to optimize chlamydia diagnosis and case management have been implemented before considering the appropriateness of screening programmes.

Systematic review of worksite-based behavior change programs that target metabolic syndrome risk factors

Approximately one-third of US adults have metabolic syndrome, the clustering of cardiovascular risk factors that include hypertension, abdominal adiposity, elevated fasting glucose, low high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol and elevated triglyceride levels. While the definition of metabolic syndrome continues to be much debated among leading health research organizations, the fact is that individuals with metabolic syndrome have an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. A recent report by the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation found that the US spent $2.2 trillion (16.2% of the Gross Domestic Product) on healthcare in 2007 and cited that among other factors, chronic diseases, including type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, are large contributors to this growing national expenditure. Bearing a substantial portion of this cost are employers, the leading providers of health insurance. In lieu of this, many employers have begun implementing health promotion efforts to counteract these rising costs. However, evidence-based practices, uniform guidelines and policy do not exist for this setting in regard to the prevention of metabolic syndrome risk factors as defined by the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III). Therefore, the aim of this review was to determine the effects of worksite-based behavior change programs on reducing the risk factors for metabolic syndrome in adults. Using relevant search terms, OVID MEDLINE was used to search the peer-reviewed literature published since 1998, resulting in 23 articles meeting the inclusion criteria for the review. The American Dietetic Association's Evidence Analysis Process was used to abstract data from selected articles, assess the quality of each study, compile the evidence, develop a summarized conclusion, and assign a grade based upon the strength of supporting evidence. The results revealed that participating in a worksite-based behavior change program may be associated in one or more improved metabolic syndrome risk factors. Programs that delivered a higher dose (>22 hours), in a shorter duration (<2 years) using two or more behavior-change strategies were associated with more metabolic risk factors being positively impacted. A Conclusion Grade of III was obtained for the evidence, indicating that studies were of weak design or results were inconclusive due to inadequate sample sizes, bias and lack of generalizability. These results provide some support for the continued use of worksite-based health promotion and further research is needed to determine if multi-strategy, intense behavior change programs targeting multiple risk factors are able to sustain health improvements in the long-term.^

A methodology for territorial distribution of CO2 emission reductions in transport sector

Greenhouse gas emission reduction is the pillar of the Kyoto Protocol and one of the main goals of the European Union (UE) energy policy. National reduction targets for EU member states and an overall target for the EU-15 (8%) were set by the Kyoto Protocol. This reduction target is based on emissions in the reference year (1990) and must be reached by 2012. EU energy policy does not set any national targets, only an overall reduction target of 20% by 2020. This paper transfers global greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in both these documents to the transport sector and specifically to CO2 emissions. It proposes a nonlinear distribution method with objective, dynamic targets for reducing CO2 emissions in the transport sector, according to the context and characteristics of each geographical area. First, we analyse CO2 emissions from transport in the reference year (1990) and their evolution from 1990 to 2007. We then propose a nonlinear methodology for distributing dynamic CO2 emission reduction targets. We have applied the proposed distribution function for 2012 and 2020 at two territorial levels (EU member states and Spanish autonomous regions). The weighted distribution is based on per capita CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions per gross domestic product. Finally, we show the weighted targets found for each EU member state and each Spanish autonomous region, compare them with the real achievements to date, and forecast the situation for the years the Kyoto and EU goals are to be met. The results underline the need for ?weighted? decentralised decisions to be made at different territorial levels with a view to achieving a common goal, so relative convergence of all the geographical areas is reached over time. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measuring science: An exploration

This paper examines the available United States data on academic research and development (R&D) expenditures and the number of papers published and the number of citations to these papers as possible measures of “output” of this enterprise. We look at these numbers for science and engineering as a whole, for five selected major fields, and at the individual university field level. The published data in Science and Engineering Indicators imply sharply diminishing returns to academic R&D using published papers as an “output” measure. These data are quite problematic. Using a newer set of data on papers and citations, based on an “expanding” set of journals and the newly released Bureau of Economic Analysis R&D deflators, changes the picture drastically, eliminating the appearance of diminishing returns but raising the question of why the input prices of academic R&D are rising so much faster than either the gross domestic product deflator or the implicit R&D deflator in industry. A production function analysis of such data at the individual field level follows. It indicates significant diminishing returns to “own” R&D, with the R&D coefficients hovering around 0.5 for estimates with paper numbers as the dependent variable and around 0.6 if total citations are used as the dependent variable. When we substitute scientists and engineers in place of R&D as the right-hand side variables, the coefficient on papers rises from 0.5 to 0.8, and the coefficient on citations rises from 0.6 to 0.9, indicating systematic measurement problems with R&D as the sole input into the production of scientific output. But allowing for individual university field effects drives these numbers down significantly below unity. Because in the aggregate both paper numbers and citations are growing as fast or faster than R&D, this finding can be interpreted as leaving a major, yet unmeasured, role for the contribution of spillovers from other fields, other universities, and other countries.

20 years of the European single market: growth effects of EU integration. Policy Brief #2014/02

The ongoing European integration has increased the economic growth of participating national economies. Calculating the cumulative gains in the real gross domestic product per capita resulting from the integration of Europe between 1992 and 2012, every national economy under consideration realized income gains from the European integration. Denmark and Germany saw the greatest gains per resident. If the values from only 1992 and 2012 are compared, every country except for Greece has been able to achieve a higher per capita income due to the European integration.

Essays in macroeconometrics

The knowledge of the current state of the economy is crucial for policy makers, economists and analysts. However, a key economic variable, the gross domestic product (GDP), are typically colected on a quartely basis and released with substancial delays by the national statistical agencies. The first aim of this paper is to use a dynamic factor model to forecast the current russian GDP, using a set of timely monthly information. This approach can cope with the typical data flow problems of non-synchronous releases, mixed frequency and the curse of dimensionality. Given that Russian economy is largely dependent on the commodity market, our second motivation relates to study the effects of innovations in the russian macroeconomic fundamentals on commodity price predictability. We identify these innovations through a news index which summarizes deviations of offical data releases from the expectations generated by the DFM and perform a forecasting exercise comparing the performance of different models.

The economic costs of road traffic crashes: Australia, states and territories

In this paper, we obtain detailed data on road traffic crash (RTC) casualties, by severity, for each of the eight state and territory jurisdictions for Australia and use these to estimate and compare the economic impact of RTCs across these regions. We show that the annual cost of RTCs in Australia, in 2003, was approximately $17b, which is approximately 2.3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Importantly, though, there is remarkable intra-national variation in the incident rates of RTCs in Australia and costs range from approximately 0.62 to 3.63% of Gross State Product (GSP). The paper makes two fundamental contributions: (i) it provides a detailed breakdown of estimated RTC casualties, by state and territory regions in Australia, and (ii) it presents the first sub-national breakdown of RTC costs for Australia. We trust that these contributions will assist policy-makers to understand sub-national variations in the road toll better and will encourage further research on the causes of the marked differences between RTC outcomes across the states and territories of Australia. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is modern medicine at risk of losing the plot?

Contemporary medicine has much to its credit, but has created an insatiable demand for new technologies and more health services, fed by commercial promotion, professional advocacy and sociopolitical pressure. Total health expenditure at the national level is now almost 10% of gross domestic product and is expected to top 16% by 2020. After recent inquiries into the failings of its public health system, the Queensland Government has committed itself to a 25% increase in expenditure on health over the next 5 years. But will it lead to better population health, and is it sustainable? The return-on-investment curve for modern health care may be flattening out, in an environment of growing numbers of older patients with chronic illnesses, maldistribution of services and hospital overcrowding. A change in thinking is required if current medical practice is to avoid imploding when confronted with the next major economic downturn. Health policy, service funding and clinical training must focus on critical appraisal of the effectiveness of health care technologies and the structure and financing of health care systems. Practising clinicians will be obliged to provide leadership in determining value for money in the choice of health care for specific patient populations and how that care is delivered.

PARCERIA ENTRE UNIVERSIDADE E ENTIDADES EMPRESARIAIS NO GRANDE ABC PAULISTA: A INTEGRAÇÃO ENSINO-PESQUISA E A PRÁTICA EMPRESARIAL

O Brasil situa-se, no início da década de 2010, dentro de um sistema econômico mundial que apresenta características de ampla globalização dos mercados e alta competitividade das organizações que compõe esse sistema, e que sinalizam a necessidade de profissionais que sejam agentes de mudança nesses contextos dinâmicos e repletos de desafios. Na maioria dos países, a maturidade do sistema de inovação está ligada ao investimento em Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento (P&D) e ao volume de geração de Propriedade Intelectual (PI). O Brasil, apesar de apresentar um Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) concentrado nos setores de agropecuária e de serviços, revela um nível de inovação gerado pelo setor produtivo e o seu consequente investimento em P&D muito baixos em comparação com a evolução desse mesmo PIB, denotando com isso que as empresas buscam, em seus países de origem, soluções já desenvolvidas e patenteadas para seu desenvolvimento ou procuram transferir a responsabilidade de produzir registros e patentes de inovações à academia. A integração da cultura acadêmica com a cultura empresarial é capaz de gerar benefícios mútuos, melhorando a competitividade do país; em outras palavras, é uma maneira de transformar o conhecimento em riqueza. Este trabalho relacionando os conceitos ensino-pesquisa e prática empresarial pretende estudar, sob o enfoque da realidade apresentada pelos Planos Estratégicos Regionais (PER) da Região do Grande ABC Paulista e das diretrizes do Plano Nacional de Pós-Graduação 2011-2020 (PNPG 2011-2020), o processo de integração do conhecimento científico existente entre as Entidades Empresariais (E-E) e as Universidades dessa mesma região. Através da metodologia de pesquisa de estudo de caso, analisaram-se as estratégias propostas pelas universidades e a prática do setor empresarial e as possíveis barreiras apontadas como restrições às interações entre eles. Nosso estudo enfocou a análise da relação entre esses dois atores e apontou as principais barreiras para a otimização dessa parceria, tais como o acesso a recursos, o aumento da competitividade via aumento da credibilidade na relação Universidade Empresa (U-E), o reconhecimento das realidades regionais e o latente descompasso entre o pensamento acadêmico e a realidade empresarial. Além disso, constatou-se a necessidade de uma mais ampla discussão, disseminação e implementação dos documentos setoriais, regionais e nacionais que regulam, esclarecem e fornecem bases estratégicas para o desenvolvimento da relação U-E, como forma de otimização do processo de transformação do conhecimento em riqueza social.

Rural road accidents in Iran: analysis, comparison and the cost

In the general introduction of the road-accident phenomenon inside and outside Iran, the results of previous research-works and international conferences and seminars on road-safety have been reviewed. Also a sample-road between Tehran and Mashad has been investigated as a case-study. Examining the road-accident data and iriformation,first: the information presented in road-accident report-forms in developed countries is discussed and, second: the procedures for road-accident data collection in Iran are investigated in detail. The data supplied by Iran Road-Police Central Statistics Office, is analysed, different rates are computed, due comparisons with other nations are made, and the results are discussed. Also such analysis and comparisons are presented for different provinces of Iran. It is concluded that each province with its own natural, geographical, social and economical characteristics possesses its own reasons for the quality and quantity of road-accidents and therefore must receive its own appropriate remedial solutions. The question~ of "what is the cost of road-accidents", "why and how evaluate the cost", "what is the appropriate way of approach to such evaluation" are all discussed and then "the cost of road-accidents in Iran" based on two different approaches: "Gross National Output"and "court award" is computed. It is concluded that this cost is about 1.5 per cent of the country's national product. In Appendix 3 an impressive example is given of the trend of costs and benefits that can be attributed to investment in road-safety measures.

Shadow economy and entrepreneurial entry

The impact of the shadow economy on entrepreneurial entry across countries is analyzed utilising 1998-2005 individual-level Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data and national macro-economic variables. A simple correlation coefficient suggests a positive relationship between the size of the shadow economy and the likelihood of entrepreneurial entry. However, this masks more complex relationships, if, as argued, the shadow economy is an embedded social phenomenon. With appropriate controls and instrumenting for potential endogeneity, the impact of the shadow economy on entry in a linear specification is found to be negative. Further, there is evidence of a U-shaped relationship: entrepreneurial entry is least likely when the shadow economy amounts to about a quarter of gross domestic product (GDP). At the individual level, an extensive shadow economy has a more negative impact on respondents who are risk averse. In addition, in the economies where property rights are stronger, the negative impact of the shadow economy is weaker. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Contabilidade do crescimento pelo lado da demanda agregada: uma proposta de cálculo das contribuições ao crescimento pela demanda agregada para o Brasil de, 2000 a 2009, utilizando matrizes insumo-produto

The demand side growth accounting studies the demand aggregate component contributions in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Traditionally, international and national organizations that uses the traditional method for calculating such contributions. However, this method does not take into account the effect the induction of imports by the various components of aggregate demand on the calculation of these. As an alternative to this method are presented others studies that consider this effect, as the alternative method proposed by Lara (2013), the attribution method, proposed by Kranendonk and Verbruggen (2005) and Hoekstra and van der Helm (2010), and the method the sraffian supermultiplier, by Freitas and Dweck (2013). Was made a summary of these methods, demonstrating the similarities and differences between them. Also, in the aim to contribute to the study of the subject was developed the “method of distribution of imports” that aims to distribute imports for the various components of aggregate demand, through the information set forth in the input-output matrices and tables of resources and uses. Were accounted the contributions to the growth of macroeconomic aggregates for Brazil from 2001 to 2009 using the method of distribution, and realized comparison with the traditional method, understanding the reasons for the differences in contributions. Later was done comparisons with all the methods presented in this work, between the calculated contributions to the growth of the components of aggregate demand and the domestic and external sectors. Was verified that the methods that exist in the literature was not enough to deal with this question, and given the alternatives for contributions to the growth presented throughout this work, it is believed that the method of distribution provides the best estimates for the account of contributions by aggregate demand sector. In particular, the main advantage of this method to the others is the breakdown of the contribution of imports, separated by aggregate demand component, which allows the analysis of contribution of each component to GDP growth. Thus, this type of analysis helps to study the pattern of growth of the Brazilian economy, not just the theoretical point of view, but also empirical and basis for the decision to economic policies

Planejamento municipal do turismo: diretrizes e perspectivas - o caso da SETURDE

Given the uncertainties of the environment in today's world, strategic planning is again discussed as an important tool to position the organization in future likely. To address this a more dynamic and less linear, trying to adapt the multiple realities, the method of scenarios can be one of the strategies to anticipate future designs. In the public sphere, an efficient implementation of human resources and financial managers require a new approach to the formulation of strategies. Tourism, in turn, presents itself as an important segment of the national economy shaped up as a major source of funds for the formation of the Gross Domestic Product - GDP - of states and municipalities. This study aims to know the guidelines and perspectives of municipal planning of tourism in the city of Natal/RN from the case by the representatives of the sector. The survey was developed based on a qualitative, exploratory, based on the case in the Secretaria Municipal de Turismo e Desenvolvimento Econômico - SETURDE. The results express that the body goes through a time of changes in its organizational structure and in defining its role with the local tourism. The national plan for tourism and the choice of Christmas as the host city for the World Cup in 2014 have stimulated interest in developing a formal strategic planning in the organization. However, when it comes to more complex tools, such as the method of future scenarios, the technical know its definition and importance for future actions. The results presented support the conclusion that the actions are designed intuitively and without complying with the scientific methods developed for this purpose, as the method of strategic scenarios. However, the evidence beginning to emerge from the plans and documents issued by the federal government, as well as the Secretary's own initiative, direct the actions of the body to coordinate and act as a fulcrum for local action to the increase in tourism