Cold and heat waves in the United States

Extreme cold and heat waves, characterised by a number of cold or hot days in succession, place a strain on people’s cardiovascular and respiratory systems. The increase in deaths due to these waves may be greater than that predicted by extreme temperatures alone. We examined cold and heat waves in 99 US cities for 14 years (1987–2000) and investigated how the risk of death depended on the temperature threshold used to define a wave, and a wave’s timing, duration and intensity. We defined cold and heat waves using temperatures above and below cold and heat thresholds for two or more days. We tried five cold thresholds using the first to fifth percentiles of temperature, and five heat thresholds using the ninety-fifth to ninety-ninth percentiles. The extra wave effects were estimated using a two-stage model to ensure that their effects were estimated after removing the general effects of temperature. The increases in deaths associated with cold waves were generally small and not statistically significant, and there was even evidence of a decreased risk during the coldest waves. Heat waves generally increased the risk of death, particularly for the hottest heat threshold. Cold waves of a colder intensity or longer duration were not more dangerous. Cold waves earlier in the cool season were more dangerous, as were heat waves earlier in the warm season. In general there was no increased risk of death during cold waves above the known increased risk associated with cold temperatures. Cold or heat waves earlier in the cool or warm season may be more dangerous because of a build up in the susceptible pool or a lack of preparedness for cold or hot temperatures.

Tactically-driven nonmonotone travelling waves

Models of cell invasion incorporating directed cell movement up a gradient of an external substance and carrying capacity-limited proliferation give rise to travelling wave solutions. Travelling wave profiles with various shapes, including smooth monotonically decreasing, shock-fronted monotonically decreasing and shock-fronted nonmonotone shapes, have been reported previously in the literature. The existence of tacticallydriven shock-fronted nonmonotone travelling wave solutions is analysed for the first time. We develop a necessary condition for nonmonotone shock-fronted solutions. This condition shows that some of the previously reported shock-fronted nonmonotone solutions are genuine while others are a consequence of numerical error. Our results demonstrate that, for certain conditions, travelling wave solutions can be either smooth and monotone, smooth and nonmonotone or discontinuous and nonmonotone. These different shapes correspond to different invasion speeds. A necessary and sufficient condition for the travelling wave with minimum wave speed to be nonmonotone is presented. Several common forms of the tactic sensitivity function have the potential to satisfy the newly developed condition for nonmonotone shock-fronted solutions developed in this work.

Travelling waves for a velocity–jump model of cell migration and proliferation

Cell invasion, characterised by moving fronts of cells, is an essential aspect of development, repair and disease. Typically, mathematical models of cell invasion are based on the Fisher–Kolmogorov equation. These traditional parabolic models can not be used to represent experimental measurements of individual cell velocities within the invading population since they imply that information propagates with infinite speed. To overcome this limitation we study combined cell motility and proliferation based on a velocity–jump process where information propagates with finite speed. The model treats the total population of cells as two interacting subpopulations: a subpopulation of left–moving cells, $L(x,t)$, and a subpopulation of right–moving cells, $R(x,t)$. This leads to a system of hyperbolic partial differential equations that includes a turning rate, $\Lambda \ge 0$, describing the rate at which individuals in the population change direction of movement. We present exact travelling wave solutions of the system of partial differential equations for the special case where $\Lambda = 0$ and in the limit that $\Lambda \to \infty$. For intermediate turning rates, $0 < \Lambda < \infty$, we analyse the travelling waves using the phase plane and we demonstrate a transition from smooth monotone travelling waves to smooth nonmonotone travelling waves as $\Lambda$ decreases through a critical value $\Lambda_{crit}$. We conclude by providing a qualitative comparison between the travelling wave solutions of our model and experimental observations of cell invasion. This comparison indicates that the small $\Lambda$ limit produces results that are consistent with experimental observations.

Lattice-free models of cell invasion : discrete simulations and travelling waves

Invasion waves of cells play an important role in development, disease and repair. Standard discrete models of such processes typically involve simulating cell motility, cell proliferation and cell-to-cell crowding effects in a lattice-based framework. The continuum-limit description is often given by a reaction–diffusion equation that is related to the Fisher–Kolmogorov equation. One of the limitations of a standard lattice-based approach is that real cells move and proliferate in continuous space and are not restricted to a predefined lattice structure. We present a lattice-free model of cell motility and proliferation, with cell-to-cell crowding effects, and we use the model to replicate invasion wave-type behaviour. The continuum-limit description of the discrete model is a reaction–diffusion equation with a proliferation term that is different from lattice-based models. Comparing lattice based and lattice-free simulations indicates that both models lead to invasion fronts that are similar at the leading edge, where the cell density is low. Conversely, the two models make different predictions in the high density region of the domain, well behind the leading edge. We analyse the continuum-limit description of the lattice based and lattice-free models to show that both give rise to invasion wave type solutions that move with the same speed but have very different shapes. We explore the significance of these differences by calibrating the parameters in the standard Fisher–Kolmogorov equation using data from the lattice-free model. We conclude that estimating parameters using this kind of standard procedure can produce misleading results.

A Framework for Adaptation of Australian Households to Heat Waves

Climate change is leading to an increased frequency and severity of heat waves. Spells of several consecutive days of unusually high temperatures have led to increased mortality rates for the more vulnerable in the community. The problem is compounded by the escalating energy costs and increasing peak electrical demand as people become more reliant on air conditioning. Domestic air conditioning is the primary determinant of peak power demand which has been a major driver of higher electricity costs. This report presents the findings of multidisciplinary research which develops a national framework to evaluate the potential impacts of heat waves. It presents a technical, social and economic approach to adapt Australian residential buildings to ameliorate the impact of heat waves in the community and reduce the risk of its adverse outcomes. Through the development of a methodology for estimating the impact of global warming on key weather parameters in 2030 and 2050, it is possible to re-evaluate the size and anticipated energy consumption of air conditioners in future years for various climate zones in Australia. Over the coming decades it is likely that mainland Australia will require more cooling than heating. While in some parts the total electricity usage for heating and cooling may remain unchanged, there is an overall significant increase in peak electricity demand, likely to further drive electricity prices. Through monitoring groups of households in South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland, the impact of heat waves on both thermal comfort sensation and energy consumption for air conditioning has been evaluated. The results show that households are likely to be able to tolerate slightly increased temperature levels indoors during periods of high outside temperatures. The research identified that household electricity costs are likely to rise above what is currently projected due to the impact of climate change. Through a number of regulatory changes to both household design and air conditioners, this impact can be minimised. A number of proposed retrofit and design measures are provided, which can readily reduce electricity usage for cooling at minimal cost to the household. Using a number of social research instruments, it is evident that households are willing to change behaviour rather than to spend money. Those on lower income and elderly individuals are the least able to afford the use of air conditioning and should be a priority for interventions and assistance. Increasing community awareness of cost effective strategies to manage comfort and health during heat waves is a high priority recommended action. Overall, the research showed that a combined approach including behaviour change, dwelling modification and improved air conditioner selection can readily adapt Australian households to the impact of heat waves, reducing the risk of heat related deaths and household energy costs.

Waves for change : the role of the South Tarawa-based women's interests program in the decolonisation process of the Gilbert Islands

This thesis has created a space for women in the history of the decolonisation of the Gilbert Islands. It traces the historical development of the national women's interests program in the Republic of Kiribati (formerly of the Gilbert and Ellice Islands Colony (GEIC)) as it was implemented through a network of women's clubs during the 1960s and 1970s. This thesis has provided the first history and interpretation of the Indigenous women's interests movement as it impacted the Gilbert Islands. It offers a narrative of the movement in terms of three overlapping waves of women leaders, based on an analysis of fieldwork, archival research and interviews conducted on South Tarawa, Kiribati.

The impact of heat waves on children's health : a systematic review

Young children are thought to be particularly sensitive to heatwaves, but relatively less research attention has been paid to this field to date. A systematic review was conducted to elucidate the relationship between heat waves and children’s health. Literature published up to August 2012 were identified using the following MeSH terms and keywords: “heatwave”, “heat wave”, “child health”, “morbidity”, “hospital admission”, “emergency department visit”, “family practice”, “primary health care”, “death” and “mortality”. Of the 628 publications identified, 12 met the selection criteria. The existing literature does not consistently suggest that mortality among children increases significantly during heat waves, even though infants were associated with more heat-related deaths. Exposure to heat waves in the perinatal period may pose a threat to children’s health. Pediatric diseases or conditions associated with heat waves include renal disease, respiratory disease, electrolyte imbalance and fever. Future research should focus on how to develop a consistent definition of a heat wave from a children’s health perspective, identifying the best measure of children’s exposure to heat waves, exploring sensitive outcome measures to quantify the impact of heat waves on children, evaluating the possible impacts of heat waves on children’s birth outcomes, and understanding the differences in vulnerability to heat waves among children of different ages and from different income countries. Projection of the children’s disease burden caused by heat waves under climate change scenarios, and development of effective heat wave mitigation and adaptation strategies that incorporate other child protective health measures, are also strongly recommended.

Prospects for studying how high-intensity compression waves cause damage in human blast injuries

Since World War I, explosions have accounted for over 70% of all injuries in conflict. With the development of improved personnel protection of the torso, improved medical care and faster aeromedical evacuation, casualties are surviving with more severe injuries to the extremities. Understanding the processes involved in the transfer of blast-induced shock waves through biological tissues is essential for supporting efforts aimed at mitigating and treating blast injury. Given the inherent heterogeneities in the human body, we argue that studying these processes demands a highly integrated approach requiring expertise in shock physics, biomechanics and fundamental biological processes. This multidisciplinary systems approach enables one to develop the experimental framework for investigating the material properties of human tissues that are subjected to high compression waves in blast conditions and the fundamental cellular processes altered by this type of stimuli. Ultimately, we hope to use the information gained from these studies in translational research aimed at developing improved protection for those at risk and improved clinical outcomes for those who have been injured from a blast wave.

Guided ionization waves : theory and experiments

This review focuses on one of the fundamental phenomena that occur upon application of sufficiently strong electric fields to gases, namely the formation and propagation of ionization waves-streamers. The dynamics of streamers is controlled by strongly nonlinear coupling, in localized streamer tip regions, between enhanced (due to charge separation) electric field and ionization and transport of charged species in the enhanced field. Streamers appear in nature (as initial stages of sparks and lightning, as huge structures-sprites above thunderclouds), and are also found in numerous technological applications of electrical discharges. Here we discuss the fundamental physics of the guided streamer-like structures-plasma bullets which are produced in cold atmospheric-pressure plasma jets. Plasma bullets are guided ionization waves moving in a thin column of a jet of plasma forming gases (e.g.,He or Ar) expanding into ambient air. In contrast to streamers in a free (unbounded) space that propagate in a stochastic manner and often branch, guided ionization waves are repetitive and highly-reproducible and propagate along the same path-the jet axis. This property of guided streamers, in comparison with streamers in a free space, enables many advanced time-resolved experimental studies of ionization waves with nanosecond precision. In particular, experimental studies on manipulation of streamers by external electric fields and streamer interactions are critically examined. This review also introduces the basic theories and recent advances on the experimental and computational studies of guided streamers, in particular related to the propagation dynamics of ionization waves and the various parameters of relevance to plasma streamers. This knowledge is very useful to optimize the efficacy of applications of plasma streamer discharges in various fields ranging from health care and medicine to materials science and nanotechnology.

Ion-acoustic surface waves on a dielectric-dusty plasma interface

The theory of ion-acoustic surface wave propagation on the interface between a dusty plasma and a dielectric is presented. Both the constant and variable dust-charge cases are considered. It is found that massive negatively charged dust grains can significantly affect the propagation and damping of the surface waves. Application of the results to surface-wave generated plasmas is discussed. © 1998 IEEE.

Nonlinear ion-acoustic surface waves on a dusty plasma

A nonlinear theory for ion-acoustic surface waves propagating at the interface between a dusty plasma and a dielectric is presented. The nonlinear effects are associated with density modulations caused by surface-wave induced anomalous ionization. The negative charge of the massive dust grains is assumed to be constant. It is shown that the effect of the ionization nonlinearity arising from the ion-acoustic surface waves can result in the formation of surface envelope solitons. The wave phase shifts and the widths of the solitons are estimated for typical gas discharge plasmas.

Nonlinear effects of ionization on surface waves on a plasma-metal interface

Nonlinear effects associated with density modulation caused by wave-induced ionization in magnetized plasmas were studied. The ionizing surface waves propagate at the interface between the plasma and a metallic surface. It is shown that the ionization nonlinearity can be important for typical experimental conditions.

Standing surface waves in a dust-contaminated large-area planar plasma source

The effect of charged particulates or dusts on surface wave produced microwave discharges is studied. The frequencies of the standing electromagnetic eigenmodes of large-area flat plasmas are calculated. The dusts absorb a significant amount of the plasma electrons and can lead to a modification of the electromagnetic field structure in the discharge by shifting the originally excited operating mode out of resonance. For certain given proportions of dusts, mode conversion is found to be possible. The power loss in the discharge is also increased because of dust-specific dissipations, leading to a decrease of the operating mode quality factor.

Interaction of transverse electromagnetic waves with counterpropagating surface waves at a plasma-dielectric interface

The nonlinear interaction of high-frequency transverse electromagnetic waves normally incident from a plasma region on to a dielectric with two surface waves (SWs) propagating in the opposite directions along the interface is studied. This interaction is found to be stable causing a slight modulation to the SWs in contrast to the decay instability for longitudinal plasma waves. The corresponding nonlinear frequency shift of the SWs is obtained and analyzed.

Excitation of surface plasmon-polariton waves at a semiconductor-metal interface

The excitation of surface plasmon-polariton waves propagating across an external magnetic field (Voigt geometry) in a semiconductor-metal structure by means of the attenuated total reflection method is investigated. The phase matching conditions for the surface waves excitation in the Kretchmann configuration are derived and analyzed. The effect of different nonlinearities on the excitation of the surface waves is studied as well.