Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.

The transient versus the equilibrium response of sea ice to global warming

To examine the long-term stability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, idealized simulations are carried out with the climate model ECHAM5/MPIOM. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is increased over 2000 years from pre-industrial levels to quadrupling, is then kept constant for 5940 years, is afterwards decreased over 2000 years to pre-industrial levels, and finally kept constant for 3940 years.Despite these very slow changes, the sea-ice response significantly lags behind the CO2 concentration change. This lag, which is caused by the ocean’s thermal inertia, implies that the sea-ice equilibrium response to increasing CO2 concentration is substantially underestimated by transient simulations. The sea-ice response to CO2 concentration change is not truly hysteretic and in principle reversible.We find no lag in the evolution of Arctic sea ice relative to changes in annual-mean northern-hemisphere surface temperature. The summer sea-ice cover changes linearly with respect to both CO2 concentration and temper...

Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5—4.5°C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850), but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarize attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.

An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming

Model studies do not agree on future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity on regional scales. We aim to shed further light on the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonality of TCs that society can expect at the end of the twenty-first century in the Southern hemisphere (SH). Therefore, we investigate TC changes simulated by the atmospheric model ECHAM5 with T213 (~60 km) horizontal resolution. We identify TCs in present-day (20C; 1969–1990) and future (21C; 2069–2100) time slice simulations, using a tracking algorithm based on vorticity at 850 hPa. In contrast to the Northern hemisphere (NH), where tropical storm numbers reduce by 6 %, there is a more dramatic 22 % reduction in the SH, mainly in the South Indian Ocean. While an increase of static stability in 21C may partly explain the reduction in tropical storm numbers, stabilization cannot alone explain the larger SH drop. Large-scale circulation changes associated with a weakening of the Tropical Walker Circulation are hypothesized to cause the strong decrease of cyclones in the South Indian Ocean. In contrast the decrease found over the South Pacific appears to be partly related to increased vertical wind shear, which is possibly associated with an enhanced meridional sea surface temperature gradient. We find the main difference between the hemispheres in changes of the tropical cyclones of intermediate strength with an increase in the NH and a decrease in the SH. In both hemispheres the frequency of the strongest storms increases and the frequency of the weakest storms decreases, although the increase in SH intense storms is marginal.

Infrared absorption spectra, radiative efficiencies, and global warming potentials of newly-detected halogenated compounds: CFC-113a, CFC-112 and HCFC-133a

CFC-113a (CF3CCl3), CFC-112 (CFCl2CFCl2) and HCFC-133a (CF3CH2Cl) are three newly detected molecules in the atmosphere that are almost certainly emitted as a result of human activity. It is important to characterise the possible contribution of these gases to radiative forcing of climate change and also to provide information on the CO2-equivalence of their emissions. We report new laboratory measurements of absorption cross-sections of these three compounds at a resolution of 0.01 cm−1 for two temperatures 250 K and 295 K in the spectral range of 600–1730 cm−1. These spectra are then used to calculate the radiative efficiencies and global warming potentials (GWP). The radiative efficiencies are found to be between 0.15 and 0.3 W∙m−2∙ppbv−1. The GWP for a 100 year time horizon, relative to carbon dioxide, ranges from 340 for the relatively short-lived HCFC-133a to 3840 for the longer-lived CFC-112. At current (2012) concentrations, these gases make a trivial contribution to total radiative forcing; however, the concentrations of CFC-113a and HCFC-133a are continuing to increase. The 2012 CO2-equivalent emissions, using the GWP (100), are estimated to be about 4% of the current global CO2-equivalent emissions of HFC-134a

Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes

Recent advances in understanding have made it possible to relate global precipitation changes directly to emissions of particular gases and aerosols that influence climate. Using these advances, new indices are developed here called the Global Precipitation-change Potential for pulse (GPP_P) and sustained (GPP_S) emissions, which measure the precipitation change per unit mass of emissions. The GPP can be used as a metric to compare the effects of different emissions. This is akin to the global warming potential (GWP) and the global temperature-change potential (GTP) which are used to place emissions on a common scale. Hence the GPP provides an additional perspective of the relative or absolute effects of emissions. It is however recognised that precipitation changes are predicted to be highly variable in size and sign between different regions and this limits the usefulness of a purely global metric. The GPP_P and GPP_S formulation consists of two terms, one dependent on the surface temperature change and the other dependent on the atmospheric component of the radiative forcing. For some forcing agents, and notably for CO2, these two terms oppose each other – as the forcing and temperature perturbations have different timescales, even the sign of the absolute GPP_P and GPP_S varies with time, and the opposing terms can make values sensitive to uncertainties in input parameters. This makes the choice of CO2 as a reference gas problematic, especially for the GPP_S at time horizons less than about 60 years. In addition, few studies have presented results for the surface/atmosphere partitioning of different forcings, leading to more uncertainty in quantifying the GPP than the GWP or GTP. Values of the GPP_P and GPP_S for five long- and short-lived forcing agents (CO2, CH4, N2O, sulphate and black carbon – BC) are presented, using illustrative values of required parameters. The resulting precipitation changes are given as the change at a specific time horizon (and hence they are end-point metrics) but it is noted that the GPPS can also be interpreted as the time-integrated effect of a pulse emission. Using CO2 as a references gas, the GPP_P and GPP_S for the non-CO2 species are larger than the corresponding GTP values. For BC emissions, the atmospheric forcing is sufficiently strong that the GPP_S is opposite in sign to the GTP_S. The sensitivity of these values to a number of input parameters is explored. The GPP can also be used to evaluate the contribution of different emissions to precipitation change during or after a period of emissions. As an illustration, the precipitation changes resulting from emissions in 2008 (using the GPP_P) and emissions sustained at 2008 levels (using the GPP_S) are presented. These indicate that for periods of 20 years (after the 2008 emissions) and 50 years (for sustained emissions at 2008 levels) methane is the dominant driver of positive precipitation changes due to those emissions. For sustained emissions, the sum of the effect of the five species included here does not become positive until after 50 years, by which time the global surface temperature increase exceeds 1 K.

Visões globais do clima - world wide views on global warming

Visões Globais do Clima é uma iniciativa para promover a participação cidadã nas discussões sobre aquecimento global, que terão um capítulo fundamental em dezembro, durante a Conferência da ONU sobre Mudança do Clima (COP-15). O projeto acontece simultaneamente em 39 países e visa colher a opinião de cidadãos comuns sobre as mudanças climáticas e levar os resultados para cada delegação nacional que representará esses países nas negociações internacionais na COP15, em Copenhagen. No Brasil, a exemplo dos outros países participantes, o ponto alto desse processo foi uma "consulta pública" com 100 cidadãos - que representaram a distribuição demográfica da população - que aconteceu na Fundação Getulio Vargas durante todo o dia 26 de setembro, com a articulação do Observatório do Clima e a facilitação do GVces - Centro de Estudos em Sustentabilidade da FGV

Different approaches on seed germination to look into global warming effects on Araucaria angustifolia

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mass occurrence of the cubomedusa Copula sivickisi (Cnidaria: Cubozoa) at Seto Harbor, Shirahama, Wakayama, Japan in summer of 2013, a recent example of global warming

More than 200 very young medusae of Copula sivickisi (Stiasny) were collected within totally 60 minutes at two nights in June, 2013 at the Seto Harbor, Shirahama, Wakayama, Japan. This mass occurrence might be related to recent global warming at Shirahama, known as the northernmost distributional locality of this cubozoan species. It is assumed that the polyp stage of this species may live in the surrounding areas, because there jellyfish were small size (most are less than 1.6 mm height) that was conceivable as the newly released one from the polyp.

Review of Global Warming in the 21st Century. Volume 1: Our Evolving Climate Crisis; Volume 2: Melting Ice and Warming Seas; Volume 3: Plants and Animals in Peril by Bruce E. Johansen

There is compelling evidence that Planet Earth is on the path to an era of global warming that has serious implications for the well-being of both people and nature. This three-volume synthesis of literature will be a marvelous place for both the public and new scholars interested in global warming to begin their pursuit of the subject. The author captures the best of the scientific literature and press materials appearing in recent years. The utility of these volumes as a resource for gaining a broad background or pursuing a particular aspect of global warming is enhanced by Johansen's talent for explaining with clarity a vast and rapidly growing subject.

Cellular biomarkers to elucidate global warming effects on Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri

Global warming is a reality and its effects have been widely studied. However, the consequences for marine invertebrates remain poorly understood. Thus, the present study proposed to evaluate the effect of elevated temperature on the innate immune system of Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri. Sea urchins were collected nearby Brazilian Antarctic Station "Comandante Ferraz" and exposed to 0 (control), 2 and 4A degrees C for periods of 48 h, 2, 7 and 14 days. After the experimental periods, coelomic fluid was collected in order to perform the following analyses: coelomocytes differential counting, phagocytic response, adhesion and spreading coelomocytes assay, intranuclear iron crystalloid and ultra structural analysis of coelomocytes. The red sphere cell was considered a biomarker for heat stress, as they increased in acute stress. Besides that, a significant increase in phagocytic indexes was observed at 2A degrees C coinciding with a significant increase of intranuclear iron crystalloid at the same temperature and same time period. Furthermore, significant alterations in cell adhesion and spreading were observed in elevated temperatures. The ultra structural analysis of coelomocytes showed no significant difference across treatments. This was the first time that innate immune response alterations were observed in response to elevated temperature in a Polar echinoid.

Cyanobacteria in biological soil crusts, Earth´s Most Extensive Biofilms: adaptation and sensitivity to global warming

School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe AZ, USA