971 resultados para Global features


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The response of ten atmospheric general circulation models to orbital forcing at 6 kyr BP has been investigated using the BIOME model, which predicts equilibrium vegetation distribution, as a diagnostic. Several common features emerge: (a) reduced tropical rain forest as a consequence of increased aridity in the equatorial zone, (b) expansion of moisture-demanding vegetation in the Old World subtropics as a consequence of the expansion of the Afro–Asian monsoon, (c) an increase in warm grass/shrub in the Northern Hemisphere continental interiors in response to warming and enhanced aridity, and (d) a northward shift in the tundra–forest boundary in response to a warmer growing season at high northern latitudes. These broadscale features are consistent from model to model, but there are differences in their expression at a regional scale. Vegetation changes associated with monsoon enhancement and high-latitude summer warming are consistent with palaeoenvironmental observations, but the simulated shifts in vegetation belts are too small in both cases. Vegetation changes due to warmer and more arid conditions in the midcontinents of the Northern Hemisphere are consistent with palaeoenvironmental data from North America, but data from Eurasia suggests conditions were wetter at 6 kyr BP than today. The models show quantitatively similar vegetation changes in the intertropical zone, and in the northern and southern extratropics. The small differences among models in the magnitude of the global vegetation response are not related to differences in global or zonal climate averages, but reflect differences in simulated regional features. Regional-scale analyses will therefore be necessary to identify the underlying causes of such differences among models.

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This paper introduces an ontology-based knowledge model for knowledge management. This model can facilitate knowledge discovery that provides users with insight for decision making. The users requiring the insight normally play different roles with different requirements in an organisation. To meet the requirements, insights are created by purposely aggregated transnational data. This involves a semantic data integration process. In this paper, we present a knowledge management system which is capable of representing knowledge requirements in a domain context and enabling the semantic data integration through ontology modeling. The knowledge domain context of United Bible Societies is used to illustrate the features of the knowledge management capabilities.

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The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) project, using PRACE (Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model GA3 configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km) and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and North West Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African Easterly Waves and the African Easterly Jet. However, the intensity of the modelled tropical cyclones as measured by 10 m wind speed remain weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50% in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, while in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic, and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the Central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more stronger storms

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Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

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Medicanes or “Mediterranean hurricanes” represent a rare and physically unique type of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclone. There are similarities with tropical cyclones with regard to their development (based on the thermodynamical disequilibrium between the warm sea and the overlying troposphere) and their kinematic and thermodynamical properties (medicanes are intense vortices with a warm core and even a cloud-free eye). Although medicanes are smaller and their wind speeds are lower than in tropical cyclones, the severity of their winds can cause substantial damage to islands and coastal areas. Concern about how human-induced climate change will affect extreme events is increasing. This includes the future impacts on medicanes due to the warming of the Mediterranean waters and the projected changes in regional atmospheric circulation. However, most global climate models do not have high enough spatial resolution to adequately represent small features such as medicanes. In this study, a cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to high resolution global climate model data with a horizontal grid resolution of approximately 25 km over the Mediterranean region. After a validation of the climatology of general Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones, changes in medicanes are determined using climate model experiments with present and future forcing. The magnitude of the changes in the winds, frequency and location of medicanes is assessed. While no significant changes in the total number of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones are found, medicanes tend to decrease in number but increase in intensity. The model simulation suggests that medicanes tend to form more frequently in the Gulf of Lion–Genoa and South of Sicily.

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The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we will apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. The main contribution of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding forecasting, we show that models incorporating (short-run) commoncycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation. Still, in most cases, forecast combination techniques outperform individual models.

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The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts - including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Includes bibliography

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O método de empilhamento sísmico por Superfície de Reflexão Comum (ou empilhamento SRC) produz a simulação de seções com afastamento nulo (NA) a partir dos dados de cobertura múltipla. Para meios 2D, o operador de empilhamento SRC depende de três parâmetros que são: o ângulo de emergência do raio central com fonte-receptor nulo (β0), o raio de curvatura da onda ponto de incidência normal (RNIP) e o raio de curvatura da onda normal (RN). O problema crucial para a implementação do método de empilhamento SRC consiste na determinação, a partir dos dados sísmicos, dos três parâmetros ótimos associados a cada ponto de amostragem da seção AN a ser simulada. No presente trabalho foi desenvolvido uma nova sequência de processamento para a simulação de seções AN por meio do método de empilhamento SRC. Neste novo algoritmo, a determinação dos três parâmetros ótimos que definem o operador de empilhamento SRC é realizada em três etapas: na primeira etapa são estimados dois parâmetros (β°0 e R°NIP) por meio de uma busca global bidimensional nos dados de cobertura múltipla. Na segunda etapa é usado o valor de β°0 estimado para determinar-se o terceiro parâmetro (R°N) através de uma busca global unidimensional na seção AN resultante da primeira etapa. Em ambas etapas as buscas globais são realizadas aplicando o método de otimização Simulated Annealing (SA). Na terceira etapa são determinados os três parâmetros finais (β0, RNIP e RN) através uma busca local tridimensional aplicando o método de otimização Variable Metric (VM) nos dados de cobertura múltipla. Nesta última etapa é usado o trio de parâmetros (β°0, R°NIP, R°N) estimado nas duas etapas anteriores como aproximação inicial. Com o propósito de simular corretamente os eventos com mergulhos conflitantes, este novo algoritmo prevê a determinação de dois trios de parâmetros associados a pontos de amostragem da seção AN onde há intersecção de eventos. Em outras palavras, nos pontos da seção AN onde dois eventos sísmicos se cruzam são determinados dois trios de parâmetros SRC, os quais serão usados conjuntamente na simulação dos eventos com mergulhos conflitantes. Para avaliar a precisão e eficiência do novo algoritmo, este foi aplicado em dados sintéticos de dois modelos: um com interfaces contínuas e outro com uma interface descontinua. As seções AN simuladas têm elevada razão sinal-ruído e mostram uma clara definição dos eventos refletidos e difratados. A comparação das seções AN simuladas com as suas similares obtidas por modelamento direto mostra uma correta simulação de reflexões e difrações. Além disso, a comparação dos valores dos três parâmetros otimizados com os seus correspondentes valores exatos calculados por modelamento direto revela também um alto grau de precisão. Usando a aproximação hiperbólica dos tempos de trânsito, porém sob a condição de RNIP = RN, foi desenvolvido um novo algoritmo para a simulação de seções AN contendo predominantemente campos de ondas difratados. De forma similar ao algoritmo de empilhamento SRC, este algoritmo denominado empilhamento por Superfícies de Difração Comum (SDC) também usa os métodos de otimização SA e VM para determinar a dupla de parâmetros ótimos (β0, RNIP) que definem o melhor operador de empilhamento SDC. Na primeira etapa utiliza-se o método de otimização SA para determinar os parâmetros iniciais β°0 e R°NIP usando o operador de empilhamento com grande abertura. Na segunda etapa, usando os valores estimados de β°0 e R°NIP, são melhorados as estimativas do parâmetro RNIP por meio da aplicação do algoritmo VM na seção AN resultante da primeira etapa. Na terceira etapa são determinados os melhores valores de β°0 e R°NIP por meio da aplicação do algoritmo VM nos dados de cobertura múltipla. Vale salientar que a aparente repetição de processos tem como efeito a atenuação progressiva dos eventos refletidos. A aplicação do algoritmo de empilhamento SDC em dados sintéticos contendo campos de ondas refletidos e difratados, produz como resultado principal uma seção AN simulada contendo eventos difratados claramente definidos. Como uma aplicação direta deste resultado na interpretação de dados sísmicos, a migração pós-empilhamento em profundidade da seção AN simulada produz uma seção com a localização correta dos pontos difratores associados às descontinuidades do modelo.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Objective. To evaluate the clinical features of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) patients with comorbid tic disorders (TD) in a large, multicenter, clinical sample. Method. A cross-sectional study was conducted that included 813 consecutive OCD outpatients from the Brazilian OCD Research Consortium and used several instruments of assessment, including the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale, the Dimensional Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale, the Yale Global Tic Severity Scale (YGTSS), the USP Sensory Phenomena Scale, and the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders. Results. The sample mean current age was 34.9 years old (SE 0.54), and the mean age at obsessive-compulsive symptoms (OCS) onset was 12.8 years old (SE 0.27). Sensory phenomena were reported by 585 individuals (72% of the sample). The general lifetime prevalence of TD was 29.0% (n=236), with 8.9% (n=72) presenting Tourette syndrome, 17.3% (n=5141) chronic motor tic disorder, and 2.8% (n=523) chronic vocal tic disorder. The mean tic severity score, according to the YGTSS, was 27.2 (SE 1.4) in the OCD1TD group. Compared to OCD patients without comorbid TD, those with TD (OCD1TD group, n=236) were more likely to be males (49.2% vs. 38.5%, p<005) and to present sensory phenomena and comorbidity with anxiety disorders in general: separation anxiety disorder, social phobia, specific phobia, generalized anxiety disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, impulse control disorders in general, and skin picking. Also, the "aggressive," "sexual/religious," and "hoarding" symptom dimensions were more severe in the OCD+TD group. Conclusion. Tic-related OCD may constitute a particular subgroup of the disorder with specific phenotypical characteristics, but its neurobiological underpinnings remain to be fully disentangled.