Intercomparison of simulated global vegetation distribution in response to 6 kyr BP orbital forcing

The response of ten atmospheric general circulation models to orbital forcing at 6 kyr BP has been investigated using the BIOME model, which predicts equilibrium vegetation distribution, as a diagnostic. Several common features emerge: (a) reduced tropical rain forest as a consequence of increased aridity in the equatorial zone, (b) expansion of moisture-demanding vegetation in the Old World subtropics as a consequence of the expansion of the Afro–Asian monsoon, (c) an increase in warm grass/shrub in the Northern Hemisphere continental interiors in response to warming and enhanced aridity, and (d) a northward shift in the tundra–forest boundary in response to a warmer growing season at high northern latitudes. These broadscale features are consistent from model to model, but there are differences in their expression at a regional scale. Vegetation changes associated with monsoon enhancement and high-latitude summer warming are consistent with palaeoenvironmental observations, but the simulated shifts in vegetation belts are too small in both cases. Vegetation changes due to warmer and more arid conditions in the midcontinents of the Northern Hemisphere are consistent with palaeoenvironmental data from North America, but data from Eurasia suggests conditions were wetter at 6 kyr BP than today. The models show quantitatively similar vegetation changes in the intertropical zone, and in the northern and southern extratropics. The small differences among models in the magnitude of the global vegetation response are not related to differences in global or zonal climate averages, but reflect differences in simulated regional features. Regional-scale analyses will therefore be necessary to identify the underlying causes of such differences among models.

Developing a knowledge management system using an ontological approach in global organisation

This paper introduces an ontology-based knowledge model for knowledge management. This model can facilitate knowledge discovery that provides users with insight for decision making. The users requiring the insight normally play different roles with different requirements in an organisation. To meet the requirements, insights are created by purposely aggregated transnational data. This involves a semantic data integration process. In this paper, we present a knowledge management system which is capable of representing knowledge requirements in a domain context and enabling the semantic data integration through ontology modeling. The knowledge domain context of United Bible Societies is used to illustrate the features of the knowledge management capabilities.

Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high resolution global climate models

The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) project, using PRACE (Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model GA3 configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km) and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and North West Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African Easterly Waves and the African Easterly Jet. However, the intensity of the modelled tropical cyclones as measured by 10 m wind speed remain weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50% in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, while in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic, and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the Central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more stronger storms

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model

Medicanes or “Mediterranean hurricanes” represent a rare and physically unique type of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclone. There are similarities with tropical cyclones with regard to their development (based on the thermodynamical disequilibrium between the warm sea and the overlying troposphere) and their kinematic and thermodynamical properties (medicanes are intense vortices with a warm core and even a cloud-free eye). Although medicanes are smaller and their wind speeds are lower than in tropical cyclones, the severity of their winds can cause substantial damage to islands and coastal areas. Concern about how human-induced climate change will affect extreme events is increasing. This includes the future impacts on medicanes due to the warming of the Mediterranean waters and the projected changes in regional atmospheric circulation. However, most global climate models do not have high enough spatial resolution to adequately represent small features such as medicanes. In this study, a cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to high resolution global climate model data with a horizontal grid resolution of approximately 25 km over the Mediterranean region. After a validation of the climatology of general Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones, changes in medicanes are determined using climate model experiments with present and future forcing. The magnitude of the changes in the winds, frequency and location of medicanes is assessed. While no significant changes in the total number of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones are found, medicanes tend to decrease in number but increase in intensity. The model simulation suggests that medicanes tend to form more frequently in the Gulf of Lion–Genoa and South of Sicily.

Global software development : the next RE frontier?

Requirements Engineers face an emerging set of challenges, which compound the traditional Requirements Engineering (RE) challenges (stakeholder identification, domain expertise, communication, analytic skills, problem solving, ...) that have arguably still not been fully addressed. This is the challenge of RE in the world of global software development, with requirements teams working in virtual mode (possibly on different continents), with the software having to operate in multiple contexts, addressing the needs of different cultures and legal jurisdictions, and having to build sales in different marketplaces. Further the need arises to specify software that is progressively enhanced through regular releases, rather than the “green field” specification of products.

This theoretical paper introduces these challenges, and presents an initial selection of theoretical models, drawn from many and varied source disciplines, which might be employed to gain insight into various features of RE in support of global software development. To illustrate the potential relevance of this selection of models, a longitudinal case study with a recently identified software developer, to follow the specification and subsequent roll-out of a future release of a software product for sale globally, is introduced. Features of the situation faced by that organisation are highlighted, to illustrate the potential relevance of the diverse models that have been identified.

Museum marketing competing in the global marketplace

Museums have moved from a product to a marketing focus within the last ten years. This has entailed a painful reorientation of approaches to understanding visitors as customers; new ways of fundraising and sponsorship as government funding decreases; and grappling with using the internet for marketing. This book brings the latest in marketing thinking to bear on the museum sector taking into account both the commercial issues and social mission it involves. Carefully structured to be highly accessible the book offers:
* A contemporary and relevant and global approach to museum marketing written by authors in Britain, Australia, the United States, and Asia
* An approach that reflects the particular challenges museums of varying sizes face when seeking to market an experience to a diverse set of stakeholders: audience; funders; sponsors and government.
* A particular focus on museum marketing in the 'Information Age'
* Major case studies at the beginning and end of each section of the book, and smaller case studies within chapters The hugely experienced author team, includes both leading academics and practitioners to ensure the book has broad appeal and is both relevant, innovative and progressive in approach. It will be essential reading for students in museum studies, non-profit marketing, and arts management and marketing. It will also be equally relevant for professionals working in and managing museums and galleries, heritage attractions and ministries of arts.
* The most up-to-date treatment of marketing museums with a global approach
* Blend of academic and practitioner expertise to appeal to students and professionals seeking a contemporary and relevant approach
* Features a range of international case studies that demonstrate the museum experience and draw out the particular challenges that museums and galleries of varying sizes and types face in the global marketplace

Extracting fingerprint features using textures

Personal identification of individuals is becoming increasingly adopted in society today. Due to the large number of electronic systems that require human identification, faster and more secure identification systems are pursued. Biometrics is based upon the physical characteristics of individuals; of these the fingerprint is the most common as used within law enforcement. Fingerprint-based systems have been introduced into the society but have not been well received due to relatively high rejection rates and false acceptance rates. This limited acceptance of fingerprint identification systems requires new techniques to be investigated to improve this identification method and the acceptance of the technology within society. Electronic fingerprint identification provides a method of identifying an individual within seconds quickly and easily. The fingerprint must be captured instantly to allow the system to identify the individual without any technical user interaction to simplify system operation. The performance of the entire system relies heavily on the quality of the original fingerprint image that is captured digitally. A single fingerprint scan for verification makes it easier for users accessing the system as it replaces the need to remember passwords or authorisation codes. The identification system comprises of several components to perform this function, which includes a fingerprint sensor, processor, feature extraction and verification algorithms. A compact texture feature extraction method will be implemented within an embedded microprocessor-based system for security, performance and cost effective production over currently available commercial fingerprint identification systems. To perform these functions various software packages are available for developing programs for windows-based operating systems but must not constrain to a graphical user interface alone. MATLAB was the software package chosen for this thesis due to its strong mathematical library, data analysis and image analysis libraries and capability. MATLAB enables the complete fingerprint identification system to be developed and implemented within a PC environment and also to be exported at a later date directly to an embedded processing environment. The nucleus of the fingerprint identification system is the feature extraction approach presented in this thesis that uses global texture information unlike traditional local information in minutiae-based identification methods. Commercial solid-state sensors such as the type selected for use in this thesis have a limited contact area with the fingertip and therefore only sample a limited portion of the fingerprint. This limits the number of minutiae that can be extracted from the fingerprint and as such limits the number of common singular points between two impressions of the same fingerprint. The application of texture feature extraction will be tested using variety of fingerprint images to determine the most appropriate format for use within the embedded system. This thesis has focused on designing a fingerprint-based identification system that is highly expandable using the MATLAB environment. The main components that are defined within this thesis are the hardware design, image capture, image processing and feature extraction methods. Selection of the final system components for this electronic fingerprint identification system was determined by using specific criteria to yield the highest performance from an embedded processing environment. These platforms are very cost effective and will allow fingerprint-based identification technology to be implemented in more commercial products that can benefit from the security and simplicity of a fingerprint identification system.

Global trends in marine nutraceuticals

An expanding body of scientific research indicates that the marine environment is emerging as a unique resource of functional food ingredients with health-promoting properties. Significant attention has been paid to exploration of potential nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals derived from the ocean. Marine-based  nutraceuticals are gaining attention due to their unique features, which are absent in terrestrial-based resources. A number of new marine nutraceutical products have been introduced in the nutraceuticals and functional foods markets. The main sources and products of primary interest for marine nutraceuticals and ingredients include omega-3 fish/algal oil, phospholipids, micro/macro algal nutrition supplements, fish proteins and peptides, hydrolysates, shellfish chitin, fish collagen, and mineral supplements.

Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence

In this paper, we test whether oil price predicts economic growth for 28 developed and 17 developing countries. We use predictability tests that account for the key features of the data, namely, persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity. Our analysis considers a large number of countries, shows evidence of more out-of-sample predictability with nominal than real oil prices, finds in-sample predictability to be independent of the use of nominal and real prices, and reveals greater evidence of predictability for developed countries.

Global perspectives on the politics of multiculturalism in the 21st century: a case study analysis

Multiculturalism is now seen by many of its critics as the source of intercultural and social tensions, fostering communal segregation and social conflicts. While the cultural diversity of contemporary societies has to be acknowledged as an empirical and demographic fact, whether multiculturalism as a policy offers an optimal conduit for intercultural understanding and social harmony has become increasingly a matter of polarised public debate.
This book examines the contested philosophical foundations of multiculturalism and its, often controversial, applications in the context of migrant societies. It also explores the current theoretical debates about the extent to which multiculturalism, and related conceptual constructs, can account for the various ethical challenges and policy dilemmas surrounding the management of cultural diversity in our contemporary societies. The authors consider common conceptual and empirical features from a transnational perspective through analysis of the case studies of Australia, Canada, Columbia, Germany, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Uruguay.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we will apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. The main contribution of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding forecasting, we show that models incorporating (short-run) commoncycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation. Still, in most cases, forecast combination techniques outperform individual models.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts - including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.

Pancreatic islets from dexamethasone-treated rats show alterations in global gene expression and mitochondrial pathways

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Clinical features of tic-related obsessive-compulsive disorder: results from a large multicenter study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)