Infrared absorption spectra, radiative efficiencies, and global warming potentials of perfluorocarbons: Comparison between experiment and theory

Experimentally and theoretically determined infrared spectra are reported for a series of straight-chain perfluorocarbons: C2F6, C3F8, C4F10, C5F12, C6F14, and C8F18. Theoretical spectra were determined using both density functional (DFT) and ab initio methods. Radiative efficiencies (REs) were determined using the method of Pinnock et al. (1995) and combined with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine global warming potentials (GWPs). Theoretically determined absorption cross sections were within 10% of experimentally determined values. Despite being much less computationally expensive, DFT calculations were generally found to perform better than ab initio methods. There is a strong wavenumber dependence of radiative forcing in the region of the fundamental C-F vibration, and small differences in wavelength between band positions determined by theory and experiment have a significant impact on the REs. We apply an empirical correction to the theoretical spectra and then test this correction on a number of branched chain and cyclic perfluoroalkanes. We then compute absorption cross sections, REs, and GWPs for an additional set of perfluoroalkenes.

Radiative efficiencies for fluorinated esters: indirect global warming potentials of hydrofluoroethers

Density Functional Theory (DFT) has been used with an empirically-derived correction for the wavenumbers of vibrational band positions to predict the infrared spectra of several fluorinated esters (FESs). Radiative efficiencies (REs) were then determined using the method of Pinnock et al. and these were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine the direct global warming potentials of FESs. FESs, in particular fluoroalkylacetates, alkylfluoroacetates and fluoroalkylformates, are potential greenhouse gases and their likely long atmospheric lifetimes and relatively large REs, compared to their parent HFEs, make them active contributors to global warming. Here, we use the concept of indirect global warming potential (indirect GWP) to assess the contribution to the warming of several commonly used HFEs emitted from the Earth's surface, explicitly taking into account that these HFEs will be converted into the corresponding FESs in the troposphere. The indirect GWP can be calculated using the radiative efficiencies and lifetimes of the HFE and its degradation FES products. We found that the GWPs of those studied HFEs which have the smallest direct GWP can be increased by 100-1600% when taking account of the cumulative effect due to the secondary FESs formed during HFE atmospheric oxidation. This effect may be particularly important for non-segregated HFEs and some segregated HFEs, which may contribute significantly more to global warming than can be concluded from examination of their direct GWPs.

Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation

Crop production is inherently sensitive to fluctuations in weather and climate and is expected to be impacted by climate change. To understand how this impact may vary across the globe many studies have been conducted to determine the change in yield of several crops to expected changes in climate. Changes in climate are typically derived from a single to no more than a few General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study examines the uncertainty introduced to a crop impact assessment when 14 GCMs are used to determine future climate. The General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) was applied over a global domain to simulate the productivity of soybean and spring wheat under baseline climate conditions and under climate conditions consistent with the 2050s under the A1B SRES emissions scenario as simulated by 14 GCMs. Baseline yield simulations were evaluated against global country-level yield statistics to determine the model's ability to capture observed variability in production. The impact of climate change varied between crops, regions, and by GCM. The spread in yield projections due to GCM varied between no change and a reduction of 50%. Without adaptation yield response was linearly related to the magnitude of local temperature change. Therefore, impacts were greatest for countries at northernmost latitudes where warming is predicted to be greatest. However, these countries also exhibited the greatest potential for adaptation to offset yield losses by shifting the crop growing season to a cooler part of the year and/or switching crop variety to take advantage of an extended growing season. The relative magnitude of impacts as simulated by each GCM was not consistent across countries and between crops. It is important, therefore, for crop impact assessments to fully account for GCM uncertainty in estimating future climates and to be explicit about assumptions regarding adaptation.

A global quantitative synthesis of local and landscape effects on wild bee pollinators in agroecosystems

Bees provide essential pollination services that are potentially affected both by local farm management and the surrounding landscape. To better understand these different factors, we modelled the relative effects of landscape composition (nesting and floral resources within foraging distances), landscape configuration (patch shape, interpatch connectivity and habitat aggregation) and farm management (organic vs. conventional and local-scale field diversity), and their interactions, on wild bee abundance and richness for 39 crop systems globally. Bee abundance and richness were higher in diversified and organic fields and in landscapes comprising more high-quality habitats; bee richness on conventional fields with low diversity benefited most from high-quality surrounding land cover. Landscape configuration effects were weak. Bee responses varied slightly by biome. Our synthesis reveals that pollinator persistence will depend on both the maintenance of high-quality habitats around farms and on local management practices that may offset impacts of intensive monoculture agriculture.

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.

Radiative forcing and global warming potentials of 11 halogenated compounds

Radiative forcing values have been calculated for 11 halogenated compounds which are in current use or which have been suggested as possible replacements for the chlorofluorocarbons. Absorption cross-sections measured over a range of atmospheric temperature and pressure conditions as part of a multi-laboratory programme have been used together with a narrow band radiative transfer model. We provide a “best estimate” radiative forcing taking into account the likely vertical profile of the gas in each case. The Global Warming Potential over a variety of time horizons has also been calculated where the lifetime is available. We present the first such information for 1,2-dichloroethane. For chloroform our radiative forcing is 5 times higher than the value used in previous assessments, possibly because these ignored the effect of absorption outside the 800–1200 cm−1 “window”. For several of the other compounds considered here, our forcing is between 10 and 30% lower than previous assessments. The perfluorocarbons have been found to have large global warming potentials, many times that of CFC-11, due to both strong absorption and long lifetimes. The importance of absorption features at wavenumbers below 800 cm−1 and the effect of temperature variations in absorption cross-section on the radiative forcing are also investigated.

Infrared absorption spectra, radiative efficiencies, and global warming potentials of newly-detected halogenated compounds: CFC-113a, CFC-112 and HCFC-133a

CFC-113a (CF3CCl3), CFC-112 (CFCl2CFCl2) and HCFC-133a (CF3CH2Cl) are three newly detected molecules in the atmosphere that are almost certainly emitted as a result of human activity. It is important to characterise the possible contribution of these gases to radiative forcing of climate change and also to provide information on the CO2-equivalence of their emissions. We report new laboratory measurements of absorption cross-sections of these three compounds at a resolution of 0.01 cm−1 for two temperatures 250 K and 295 K in the spectral range of 600–1730 cm−1. These spectra are then used to calculate the radiative efficiencies and global warming potentials (GWP). The radiative efficiencies are found to be between 0.15 and 0.3 W∙m−2∙ppbv−1. The GWP for a 100 year time horizon, relative to carbon dioxide, ranges from 340 for the relatively short-lived HCFC-133a to 3840 for the longer-lived CFC-112. At current (2012) concentrations, these gases make a trivial contribution to total radiative forcing; however, the concentrations of CFC-113a and HCFC-133a are continuing to increase. The 2012 CO2-equivalent emissions, using the GWP (100), are estimated to be about 4% of the current global CO2-equivalent emissions of HFC-134a

National interest to global reform: patterns of reasoning in British foreign policy discourse

Discussion of the national interest often focuses on how Britain's influence can be maximized, rather than on the goals that influence serves. Yet what gives content to claims about the national interest is the means-ends reasoning which links interests to deeper goals. In ideal-typical terms, this can take two forms. The first, and more common, approach is conservative: it infers national interests and the goals they advance from existing policies and commitments. The second is reformist: it starts by specifying national goals and then asks how they are best advanced under particular conditions. New Labour's foreign policy discourse is notable for its explicit use of a reformist approach. Indeed, Gordon Brown's vision of a 'new global society' not only identifies global reform as a key means of fulfilling national goals, but also thereby extends the concept of the national interest well beyond a narrow concern with national security.

Neural stem cells, inflammation and NF-kappaB: basic principle of maintenance and repair or origin of brain tumours?

Several recent reports suggest that inflammatory signals play a decisive role in the self-renewal, migration and differentiation of multipotent neural stem cells (NSCs). NSCs are believed to be able to ameliorate the symptoms of several brain pathologies through proliferation, migration into the area of the lesion and either differentiation into the appropriate cell type or secretion of anti-inflammatory cytokines. Although NSCs have beneficial roles, current evidence indicates that brain tumours, such as astrogliomas or ependymomas are also caused by tumour-initiating cells with stem-like properties. However, little is known about the cellular and molecular processes potentially generating tumours from NSCs. Most pro-inflammatory conditions are considered to activate the transcription factor NF-kappaB in various cell types. Strong inductive effects of NF-kappaB on proliferation and migration of NSCs have been described. Moreover, NF-kappaB is constitutively active in most tumour cells described so far. Chronic inflammation is also known to initiate cancer. Thus, NF-kappaB might provide a novel mechanistic link between chronic inflammation, stem cells and cancer. This review discusses the apparently ambivalent role of NF-kappaB: physiological maintenance and repair of the brain via NSCs, and a potential role in tumour initiation. Furthermore, it reveals a possible mechanism of brain tumour formation based on inflammation and NF-kappaB activity in NSCs.

The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project

This paper introduces the special issue of Climatic Change on the QUEST-GSI project, a global-scale multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change. The project used multiple climate models to characterise plausible climate futures with consistent baseline climate and socio-economic data and consistent assumptions, together with a suite of global-scale sectoral impacts models. It estimated impacts across sectors under specific SRES emissions scenarios, and also constructed functions relating impact to change in global mean surface temperature. This paper summarises the objectives of the project and its overall methodology, outlines how the project approach has been used in subsequent policy-relevant assessments of future climate change under different emissions futures, and summarises the general lessons learnt in the project about model validation and the presentation of multi-sector, multi-region impact assessments and their associated uncertainties to different audiences.

Global gene expression of the inner cell mass and trophectoderm of the bovine blastocyst

Background: The first distinct differentiation event in mammals occurs at the blastocyst stage when totipotent blastomeres differentiate into either pluripotent inner cell mass (ICM) or multipotent trophectoderm (TE). Here we determined, for the first time, global gene expression patterns in the ICM and TE isolated from bovine blastocysts. The ICM and TE were isolated from blastocysts harvested at day 8 after insemination by magnetic activated cell sorting, and cDNA sequenced using the SOLiD 4.0 system.Results: A total of 870 genes were differentially expressed between ICM and TE. Several genes characteristic of ICM (for example, NANOG, SOX2, and STAT3) and TE (ELF5, GATA3, and KRT18) in mouse and human showed similar patterns in bovine. Other genes, however, showed differences in expression between ICM and TE that deviates from the expected based on mouse and human.Conclusion: Analysis of gene expression indicated that differentiation of blastomeres of the morula-stage embryo into the ICM and TE of the blastocyst is accompanied by differences between the two cell lineages in expression of genes controlling metabolic processes, endocytosis, hatching from the zona pellucida, paracrine and endocrine signaling with the mother, and genes supporting the changes in cellular architecture, stemness, and hematopoiesis necessary for development of the trophoblast.

Determination of the LC50 of selamectin (active principle of the antiparasitic Revolution (R), Pfizer) applied on engorged female of the tick Rhipicephalus sanguineus (Latreille, 1806) (Acari: Ixodidae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Dynamics at infinity and other global dynamical aspects of Shimizu-Morioka equations

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)