Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Value creation in the nursing home real estate investment market - A case study

The underlying thesis examines the value drivers of direct investments in nursing home real estate in Germany. A survey among investors and operators is conducted in order to identify significant value drivers. Moreover, based on survey results, a framework for assessing German nursing home real estate is developed. This is applied in a case-study about the set-up of a nursing home value-add fund which will demonstrate the value creation process of redeveloping an existing nursing home real estate portfolio. Through a concluding analysis the sources of value creation, sensitivities and future prospects of direct investing into German nursing home real estate are concluded.

Characterization of the commercial fish production landed at Manaus, Amazonas State, Brazil

The present work aims to update a series of information about the regional fishing production, by presenting and characterizing the contribution of the different sub-systems of the Amazon basin to the catch landed at the main fishing market of Manaus, Brazil, from 1994 to 1996. Collectors specifically hired for this function registered key information on the fisheries. Thirty nine types or groups of fish were found in the fishing production landed. Jaraqui (Semaprochilodus spp.), curimatã (Prochilodus nigricans), pacu (Myleinae), matrinchã (Brycon cephalus), sardine (Triportheus spp.), aracu (Anostomidae) and tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum) were the most important items during three consecutive years. In 1994 these items summed up 91.6% of the total production; in 1995 and 1996 these values were, respectively, 85.3% and 86.4% of the total production. Tambaqui landed decreased remarkably during the period 1976-1996. There was a strong seasonal component in the production of the main species; jaraqui and matrinchã were mostly landed between April and June, while curimatã, pacu, and sardine were mostly landed during the dry season. Other important items showed a strong inter-annual variation in their production. The fishing production landed came mostly from the sub-system of the Purus River (around 30% of the total production). The subsystem of the Medium-Solimões contributed with an average of 15% and the sub-systems of the Madeira, Lower-Solimões, Upper-Amazon and Juruá, together contributed with 11.5% of the total production landed. Finally, the remaining sub-systems contributed with only 7.6% of the production.

Sex determination in the Giant fish of Amazon Basin, Arapaima gigas (Osteoglossiformes, Arapaimatidae), using laparoscopy

The Giant of Amazon basin, pirarucu, Arapaima gigas, is the largest scaled freshwater fish in the world. pirarucu cultivation has recently started, driven by the decline in natural populations and high market value. Currently, there are no reliable methods for sexual differentiation in this species other than direct examination of gonads, which requires dissection of specimens. A non-lethal and less invasive method for sexual identification is highly desirable in order to properly group broodstock for mating and offspring production. We utilized laparoscopic examination in anesthetized pirarucu to differentiate between male and female individuals. This method allowed for the observation and differentiation of the reproductive organs within an individual. Our results suggest that laparoscopy is an efficient method for sex differentiation in pirarucu causing minimal stress to the fish.

The daily market for funds in Europe: what has changed with the EMU?

This paper presents evidence that the existence of deposit and lending facilities combined with an averaging provision for the reserve requirement are powerful tools to stabilize the overnight rate. We reach this conclusion by comparing the behavior of this rate in Germany before and after the start of the EMU. The analysis of the German experience is useful because it allows to isolate the effects on the overnight rate of these particular instruments of monetary policy. To show that this outcome is a general conclusion and not a particular result of the German market, we develop a theoretical model of reserve management which is able to reproduce our empirical findings.

Leaving the labour market: event-history analysis of the female workers' transition to housework in Denmark, Germany, Great Britain and Spain

This paper is aimed at exploring the determinants of female activity from a dynamic perspective. An event-history analysis of the transition form employment to housework has been made resorting to data from the European Household Panel Survey. Four countries representing different welfare regimes and, more specifically, different family policies, have been selected for the analysis: Britain, Denmark, Germany and Spain. The results confirm the importance of individual-level factors, which is consistent with an economic approach to female labour supply. Nonetheless, there are significant cross-national differences in how these factors act over the risk of abandoning the labour market. First, the number of trnasitions is much lower among Danish working women than among British, German or Spanish ones, revealing the relative importance of universal provision of childcare services, vis-à-vis other elements of the family policy, as time or money.

With a bang, not a whimper: Pricking Germany's "stock market bubble" in 1927 and the slide into depression

In May 1927, the German central bank intervenedindirectly to reduce lending to equity investors.The crash that followed ended the only stockmarket boom during Germany s relative stabilization 1924-28. This paper examines thefactors that lead to the intervention as well asits consequences. We argue that genuine concernabout the exuberant level of the stock market,in addition to worries about an inflow offoreign funds, tipped the scales in favour ofintervention. The evidence strongly suggeststhat the German central bank under HjalmarSchacht was wrong to be concerned aboutstockprices-there was no bubble. Also, theReichsbank was mistaken in its belief thata fall in the market would reduce theimportance of short-term foreign borrowing,and help to ease conditions in the money market.The misguided intervention had important realeffects. Investment suffered, helping to tipGermany into depression.

The daily market for funds in Europe: Has something changed with the EMU?

This paper presents evidence that the existence of deposit and lending facilities combined with an averaging provision for the reserve requirement are powerful tools to stabilize the overnight rate. We reach this conclusion by comparing the behavior of this rate in Germany before and after thestart of Stage III of the EMU. The analysis of the German experience is useful because it allows us to isolate the effects on the overnight rate of these particular instruments of monetary policy. To show that this outcome is a general conclusion and not a particular result of the German market, we develop a theoretical model of reserve management which isable to reproduce our empirical findings.

EMU sovereign debt market crisis: Fundamentals-based or pure contagion?

We empirically investigate whether the transmission of the recent crisis in euro area sovereign debt markets was due to fundamentals-based or pure contagion. To do so, we examine the behaviour of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund for a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012. First we apply a dynamic approach to analyse the evolution of the degree of Grangercausality within the 90 pairs of sovereign bond yield spreads in our sample, in order to detect episodes of significantly increased causality between them (which we associate with contagion) and episodes of significantly reduced interconnection (which we associate with immunisation). We then use an ordered logit model to assess the determinants of the occurrence of the episodes detected. Our results suggest the importance of variables proxying market sentiment and of variables proxying macrofundamentals in determining contagion and immunisation outcomes. Therefore, our findings underline the coexistence of “pure” and “fundamentals-based contagion” during the recent European debt crisis.

EMU sovereign debt market crisis: Fundamentals-based or pure contagion?

We empirically investigate whether the transmission of the recent crisis in euro area sovereign debt markets was due to fundamentals-based or pure contagion. To do so, we examine the behaviour of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund for a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012. First we apply a dynamic approach to analyse the evolution of the degree of Grangercausality within the 90 pairs of sovereign bond yield spreads in our sample, in order to detect episodes of significantly increased causality between them (which we associate with contagion) and episodes of significantly reduced interconnection (which we associate with immunisation). We then use an ordered logit model to assess the determinants of the occurrence of the episodes detected. Our results suggest the importance of variables proxying market sentiment and of variables proxying macrofundamentals in determining contagion and immunisation outcomes. Therefore, our findings underline the coexistence of “pure” and “fundamentals-based contagion” during the recent European debt crisis.

Exploring Different Types of Sharing: A Proposed Segmentation of the Market for "Sharing Businesses"

Sharing instead of buying is regaining traction among today's consumers. This study aims at identifying segments of sharing consumers to unearth potentially viable clusters of a consumer behavior that is a market of growing economic relevance. By means of a qualitative study and a survey with a roughly representative sample of 1121 Swiss-German and German consumers, a set of trait-related, motivational, and perceived socioeconomic variables is identified that can be used to group individuals into segments that differ with regard to their approach to sharing. A cluster analysis based on these variables suggests four potential clusters of sharing consumers-sharing idealists, sharing opponents, sharing pragmatists, and sharing normatives. Two sets of testable propositions are derived that can guide further research in this domain and pave the way to a more targeted approach to the growing market of "sharing" businesses.

Heterogeneous products and tests for an appropriate aggregation level considering different qualities: evidence from fresh hake at Barcelona’s wholesale market

[cat] Aquest estudi destaca la importància de considerar un nivell d’agregació adequat en els anàlisis de demanda, ja que treballar utilitzant un nivell d’agregació inadequat pot donar lloc a estimacions esbiaixades. Aquest fet es mostra a través de l’anàlisi de diferents productes de lluç fresc comercialitzats a Mercabarna, el mercat majorista de Barcelona. La literatura sobre la demanda de peix tracta al lluç com un únic producte i espècie. No obstant això, en el mercat espanyol, es comercialitzen molts peixos com a lluç, els quals mostren comportaments molt diferents (des de béns inferiors fins a béns de luxe). Els resultats obtinguts, en concordança amb les observacions empíriques, demostren que l’anàlisi s’ha de realitzar amb un major grau de detall que a nivell d’espècie. Això qüestiona els resultats d’anteriors estudis de demanda i la majoria de les bases de dades, on l’observació del nivell d’agregació adequat dels productes no es té en compte.

Heterogeneous products and tests for an appropriate aggregation level considering different qualities: evidence from fresh hake at Barcelona’s wholesale market

[cat] Aquest estudi destaca la importància de considerar un nivell d’agregació adequat en els anàlisis de demanda, ja que treballar utilitzant un nivell d’agregació inadequat pot donar lloc a estimacions esbiaixades. Aquest fet es mostra a través de l’anàlisi de diferents productes de lluç fresc comercialitzats a Mercabarna, el mercat majorista de Barcelona. La literatura sobre la demanda de peix tracta al lluç com un únic producte i espècie. No obstant això, en el mercat espanyol, es comercialitzen molts peixos com a lluç, els quals mostren comportaments molt diferents (des de béns inferiors fins a béns de luxe). Els resultats obtinguts, en concordança amb les observacions empíriques, demostren que l’anàlisi s’ha de realitzar amb un major grau de detall que a nivell d’espècie. Això qüestiona els resultats d’anteriors estudis de demanda i la majoria de les bases de dades, on l’observació del nivell d’agregació adequat dels productes no es té en compte.

Relationship between the price of fish and its quality attributes: a study within a community at the University of São Paulo, Brazil

The aim of this study was to evaluate the associations between the products' market price and attributes related to fish purchase and consumption within a university community in Brazil. A structured questionnaire consisting of a five-point Likert scale was used. It was previously tested and made available to the university community via the Internet. The sample comprised 1966 voluntaries including university students and faculty and staff members. A descriptive analysis of data was performed using Spearman's correlation analysis. The results showed that the majority of the respondents (56%) consume fish at home; some consume fish at restaurants (39%), and 5% at family or friends' houses, reinforcing the idea that variables such as culture and reference groups are fundamental determinants of purchase and consumption behavior. It was identified a significant (p < 0.001) and very strong correlation between the attributes price and nutritional value (r = 0.92); price and availability at the usual places of purchase (r = 0.92); price and packaging (r = 0.92); price and brand name (r = 0.91); and price and of the Federal Inspection stamp (r = 0.91) and a low positive correlation (p < 0.001) between the price variable and the initiative for fish traceability (r = 0.16). This study demonstrated that the price of fish is associated with the quality of the product and the attributes related to it such as packaging, nutritional value, and availability of the product in the market.

Effects of filtration methods on the neutralization yield of crude marine fish oil

The evaluation of filtration methods on the yield and oleochemicals characteristics on the crude fish oil from the soapstock of marine fish for purposes of nutrition has been conducted in this work. The analytical properties of the crude and the neutralized oil with three excesses of sodium hydroxide (NaOH, 20%, 40% and 60%) were carried out on two different ways with organza and the “glass wool”. The neutralization of the oil brought about a notable improvement in the analytical properties of the oil. Thus, it leads to a high quality fish oil in terms of taste, colour, odours, shelf life and market value. Based on the improved characteristics of the oil, it could be suitable for applications in pharmaceutical and food industries.