Statistical modelling of district-level residential electricity use in NSW, Australia

Electricity network investment and asset management require accurate estimation of future demand in energy consumption within specified service areas. For this purpose, simple models are typically developed to predict future trends in electricity consumption using various methods and assumptions. This paper presents a statistical model to predict electricity consumption in the residential sector at the Census Collection District (CCD) level over the state of New South Wales, Australia, based on spatial building and household characteristics. Residential household demographic and building data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and actual electricity consumption data from electricity companies are merged for 74 % of the 12,000 CCDs in the state. Eighty percent of the merged dataset is randomly set aside to establish the model using regression analysis, and the remaining 20 % is used to independently test the accuracy of model prediction against actual consumption. In 90 % of the cases, the predicted consumption is shown to be within 5 kWh per dwelling per day from actual values, with an overall state accuracy of -1.15 %. Given a future scenario with a shift in climate zone and a growth in population, the model is used to identify the geographical or service areas that are most likely to have increased electricity consumption. Such geographical representation can be of great benefit when assessing alternatives to the centralised generation of energy; having such a model gives a quantifiable method to selecting the 'most' appropriate system when a review or upgrade of the network infrastructure is required.

The African National Congress and its Critics: 'Predatory Liberalism', Black Empowerment and Intra-Alliance Tensions in Post-Apartheid South Africa

Post-apartheid South Africa is characterized by centralized, neo-liberal policymaking that perpetuates, and in some cases exaggerates, socio-economic inequalities inherited from the apartheid era. The African National Congress (ANC) leadership’s alignment with powerful international and domestic market actors produces tensions within the Tripartite Alliance and between government and civil society. Consequently, several characteristics of ‘predatory liberalism’ are evident in contemporary South Africa: neo-liberal restructuring of the economy is combined with an increasing willingness by government to assert its authority, to marginalize and delegitimize those critical of its abandonment of inclusive governance. A new form of oligarch power, combining entrenched economic interests with those of a new ‘black bourgeoisie’ promoted by narrowly implemented Black Economic Empowerment policies, diminishes prospects for broad-based socio-economic transformation. Because the new policy environment is failing to resolve tensions between global market demands for increasing market liberalization and domestic popular demands for poverty-alleviation and socio-economic transformation, the ANC leadership is forced increasingly to confront ‘ultra-leftists’ who are challenging its credentials as defender of the National Democratic Revolution which was the cornerstone in the anti-apartheid struggle.

Revolution and the ritual year: religious conflict and innovation in Cristero Mexico

This article analyses Catholic responses to persecution of the Church by the Mexican state during Mexico's cristero rebellion (1926–9) and seeks to make a new contribution to the revolt's religious history. Faced with the Calles regime's anticlericalism, the article argues, Mexico's episcopate developed an alternative cultic model premised on a revitalised lay religion. The article then focuses on changes and continuities in lay – clerical relations, and on the new religious powers of the faithful, now empowered to celebrate ‘white’ masses and certain sacraments by themselves. The article concludes that persecution created new spaces for lay religious participation, showing the 1910–40 Revolution to be a period of religious, as well as social, upheaval.

Cross-Border Environmental Governance and EC Law

This article examines the nature and scope of emerging cross-border participatory rights under European Community environmental law. It reviews the legal and political forces that have stimulated the development of such rights and also the specific nature of the rights conferred by three major legislative initiatives: the Community Directives on Environmental Impact Assessment, Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control, and the Water Framework Directive. The article concludes with a case study on Ireland which assesses the likely significance of these cross-border participatory rights for transboundary environmental governance in Ireland.

Green Party Factionalism. The Case of the Federation of Ecologists Alternatives, Greece

To date, the Federation of Ecologists Alternatives (FEA) is the only Greek green party to have achieved representation in Parliament. Based on written accounts of the period and in-depth interviews with the main protagonists, this article offers a theoretical explanation of FEA's short-lived trajectory (1989-92), describing it as a case of 'primordial factionalism': a case of intraparty factionalism stemming from externally imposed stresses rather than any internal debate about ideological purity (the classical Realo/Fundi conflict). The article maintains that in such cases, it is highly probable for an emerging green party to disintegrate during its formative period, thus adding a new perspective to classical green party factionalism theories.