Cost effectiveness of a combination of instruments for global warming: a quantitative approach for Spain

Climate change is an important environmental problem and one whose economic implications are many and varied. This paper starts with the presumption that mitigation of greenhouse gases is a necessary policy that has to be designed in a cost effective way. It is well known that market instruments are the best option for cost effectiveness. But the discussion regarding which of the various market instruments should be used, how they may interact and what combinations of policies should be implemented is still open and very lively. In this paper we propose a combination of instruments: the marketable emission permits already in place in Europe for major economic sectors and a CO(2) tax for economic sectors not included in the emissions permit scheme. The study uses an applied general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy to compute the results obtained with the new mix of instruments proposed. As the combination of the market for emission permits and the CO(2) tax admits different possibilities that depend on how the mitigation is distributed among the economic sectors, we concentrate on four possibilities: cost-effective, equalitarian, proportional to emissions, and proportional to output distributions. Other alternatives to the CO(2) tax are also analysed (tax on energy, on oil and on electricity). Our findings suggest that careful, well designed policies are needed as any deviation imposes significant additional costs that increase more than proportionally to the level of emissions reduction targeted by the EU.

Wage stickiness and unemployment fluctuations: an alternative approach

28 p.

Eine zusätzliche Möglichkeit für die Ostseedorsch-Fischerei: Steerte aus 90° gedrehtem Netztuch

In 2004, comparative selectivity investigations were made with the now legal BACOMA codend of 110 mm mesh opening and alternative codends made of netting turned 90° of similar mesh openings on both commercial boats and on research vessels. The results show a certain variability of the BACOMA results – depending on ship type and season (L50 varying between 36,8 and 40,6) – and a general equal efficiency of codends made of netting turned 90° of the same mesh opening. Underwater observations and reduced performance of codends of equal circumference in meshes as the joining round at the end of the tapered part of the trawl indicate the need to reduce the relation of the cir-cumferences of codend and extension to 1 to 0.7 to achieve optimum fit and selectivity.

Carbon leakage and the future of Old Industrial Regions after Copenhagen

35 p.

From Shadow to Green: Linking Environmental Fiscal Reforms and the Informal Economy

47 p.

Estímulos fiscais e a interação entre as políticas monetária e fiscal no Brasil

Este trabalho estima, utilizando dados trimestrais de 1999 a 2011, o impacto dinâmico de um estímulo fiscal no Brasil sobre as principais variáveis macroeconômicas Brasileiras. Na estimativa dos impactos permitiu-se que as expectativas dos agentes econômicas fossem afetadas pela existência e probabilidade de alternância de regimes (foram detectados dois regimes) na política monetária do país. Os parâmetros da regra da política monetária, nos dois regimes detectados, foram estimados através de um modelo - composto apenas pela equação da regra da política monetária - que permite uma mudança de regime Markoviana. Os parâmetros do único regime encontrado para a política fiscal foram estimados por um modelo Vetorial de Correção de Erros (Vector Error Correction Model - VEC), composto apenas pelas variáveis pertencentes à regra da política fiscal. Os parâmetros estimados, para os diversos regimes das políticas monetária e fiscal, foram utilizados como auxiliares na calibragem de um modelo de equilíbrio geral estocástico dinâmico (MEGED), com mudanças de regime, com rigidez nominal de preços e concorrência monopolística (como em Davig e Leeper (2011)). Após a calibragem do MEGED os impactos dinâmicos de um estímulo fiscal foram obtidos através de uma rotina numérica (desenvolvida por Davig e Leeper (2006)) que permite obter o equilíbrio dinâmico do modelo resolvendo um sistema de equações de diferenças de primeira ordem expectacionais dinâmicas não lineares. Obtivemos que a política fiscal foi passiva durante todo o período analisado e que a política monetária foi sempre ativa, porém sendo em determinados momentos menos ativa. Em geral, em ambas as combinações de regimes, um choque não antecipado dos gastos do governo leva ao aumento do hiato do produto, aumento dos juros reais, redução do consumo privado e (em contradição com o resultado convencional) redução da taxa de inflação.

Liberalização Comercial: Um modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável para o Comércio entre Brasil e China

Este estudo avalia o impacto da liberalização comercial entre Brasil e China sobre o comércio, produção, preços, investimento, poupança e emprego. O objetivo da análise é identificar a existência de uma oportunidade de comércio para o Brasil que viabilize um maior crescimento, incremente as exportações brasileiras e reduza o desemprego. A hipótese principal é a existência de ganhos de bem estar no comércio com a China. O modelo utilizado é o GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS PROJECT (GTAP) com 10 regiões, 10 produtos, 5 fatores, com retornos constantes de escala e competição perfeita nas atividades de produção. Destacam-se na análise os produtos agropecuários. Utilizam-se três fechamentos macroeconômicos (closure) para avaliar separadamente alguns agregados: a configuração padrão dos modelos CGE (preço da poupança endógeno e pleno emprego); preço da poupança exógeno; e desemprego. Conclui-se que pode haver benefícios para os dois países com o acordo.

Impacto de melhorias em infraestrutura de transportes sobre variáveis econômicas no Brasil: uma abordagem com o modelo GTAP

Neste Trabalho, modelamos a redução de custos de transportes decorrentes de hipotéticas melhorias na qualidade da infraestrutura de transportes terrestres da economia brasileira. A liberação de recursos gerada por essas melhorias foram traduzidas, em nosso modelo, como ganhos de produtividade para dez setores selecionados. A escolha dessa modelagem possui a vantagem de deixar que os agentes econômicos decidam o que fazer após o choque na produtividade total dos fatores, sem que estes recursos estejam comprometidos com quaisquer incentivos de natureza específica, como seria o caso de um subsídio à compra de determinada matéria-prima, por exemplo. O comportamento do setor, em consequência da realização do experimento, fica condicionado às hipóteses iniciais do modelo referentes aos parâmetros de decisão da firma, das famílias e do governo. Para os cálculos dos impactos sobre a produtividade, utilizamos as matrizes de insumoproduto estimadas por Martinez(2013). Os resultados mostraram ganhos expressivos para o produto interno bruto, a Balança Comercial e o volume de produção setorial, dentre outras variáveis analisadas.

Impacto de melhorias em infraestrutura de transportes sobre variáveis econômicas no Brasil: uma abordagem com o modelo GTAP

Neste Trabalho, modelamos a redução de custos de transportes decorrentes de hipotéticas melhorias na qualidade da infraestrutura de transportes terrestres da economia brasileira. A liberação de recursos gerada por essas melhorias foram traduzidas, em nosso modelo, como ganhos de produtividade para dez setores selecionados. A escolha dessa modelagem possui a vantagem de deixar que os agentes econômicos decidam o que fazer após o choque na produtividade total dos fatores, sem que estes recursos estejam comprometidos com quaisquer incentivos de natureza específica, como seria o caso de um subsídio à compra de determinada matéria-prima, por exemplo. O comportamento do setor, em consequência da realização do experimento, fica condicionado às hipóteses iniciais do modelo referentes aos parâmetros de decisão da firma, das famílias e do governo. Para os cálculos dos impactos sobre a produtividade, utilizamos as matrizes de insumoproduto estimadas por Martinez(2013). Os resultados mostraram ganhos expressivos para o produto interno bruto, a Balança Comercial e o volume de produção setorial, dentre outras variáveis analisadas.

Oscillations in a decentralized economic network

The study of exchange markets dates back to LeonWalras's general equilibrium theory. Since then the economic market has been studied for its' equilibrium properties, fairness of allocations of private and public goods, and even the psychological incentives of participants. This paper studies the dynamics of an exchange economy built on a network of markets where consumers trade with suppliers to optimize utility. Viewing the market in as a decentralized network we study the system from the usual control theory point of view, evaluating the system's dynamic performance, stability and robustness. It is shown that certain consumer demand dynamics can lead to oscillations while others can converge to optimal allocations. © 2011 IFAC.

Modeling economy-wide vs sectoral climate policies using combined aggregate-sectoral models

Economic analyses of climate change policies frequently focus on reductions of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions via market-based, economy-wide policies. The current course of environment and energy policy debate in the United States, however, suggests an alternative outcome: sector-based and/or inefficiently designed policies. This paper uses a collection of specialized, sector-based models in conjunction with a computable general equilibrium model of the economy to examine and compare these policies at an aggregate level. We examine the relative cost of different policies designed to achieve the same quantity of emission reductions. We find that excluding a limited number of sectors from an economy-wide policy does not significantly raise costs. Focusing policy solely on the electricity and transportation sectors doubles costs, however, and using non-market policies can raise cost by a factor of ten. These results are driven in part by, and are sensitive to, our modeling of pre-existing tax distortions. Copyright © 2006 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.

Design of Scheduling Algorithms Using Game Theoretic Ideas

Scheduling a set of jobs over a collection of machines to optimize a certain quality-of-service measure is one of the most important research topics in both computer science theory and practice. In this thesis, we design algorithms that optimize {\em flow-time} (or delay) of jobs for scheduling problems that arise in a wide range of applications. We consider the classical model of unrelated machine scheduling and resolve several long standing open problems; we introduce new models that capture the novel algorithmic challenges in scheduling jobs in data centers or large clusters; we study the effect of selfish behavior in distributed and decentralized environments; we design algorithms that strive to balance the energy consumption and performance.

The technically interesting aspect of our work is the surprising connections we establish between approximation and online algorithms, economics, game theory, and queuing theory. It is the interplay of ideas from these different areas that lies at the heart of most of the algorithms presented in this thesis.

The main contributions of the thesis can be placed in one of the following categories.

1. Classical Unrelated Machine Scheduling: We give the first polygorithmic approximation algorithms for minimizing the average flow-time and minimizing the maximum flow-time in the offline setting. In the online and non-clairvoyant setting, we design the first non-clairvoyant algorithm for minimizing the weighted flow-time in the resource augmentation model. Our work introduces iterated rounding technique for the offline flow-time optimization, and gives the first framework to analyze non-clairvoyant algorithms for unrelated machines.

2. Polytope Scheduling Problem: To capture the multidimensional nature of the scheduling problems that arise in practice, we introduce Polytope Scheduling Problem (\psp). The \psp problem generalizes almost all classical scheduling models, and also captures hitherto unstudied scheduling problems such as routing multi-commodity flows, routing multicast (video-on-demand) trees, and multi-dimensional resource allocation. We design several competitive algorithms for the \psp problem and its variants for the objectives of minimizing the flow-time and completion time. Our work establishes many interesting connections between scheduling and market equilibrium concepts, fairness and non-clairvoyant scheduling, and queuing theoretic notion of stability and resource augmentation analysis.

3. Energy Efficient Scheduling: We give the first non-clairvoyant algorithm for minimizing the total flow-time + energy in the online and resource augmentation model for the most general setting of unrelated machines.

4. Selfish Scheduling: We study the effect of selfish behavior in scheduling and routing problems. We define a fairness index for scheduling policies called {\em bounded stretch}, and show that for the objective of minimizing the average (weighted) completion time, policies with small stretch lead to equilibrium outcomes with small price of anarchy. Our work gives the first linear/ convex programming duality based framework to bound the price of anarchy for general equilibrium concepts such as coarse correlated equilibrium.

Market Economies with an Endogenous Social Division of Labour

This paper considers a general equilibrium theory of a competitive market economy with an endogenous social division of labour. The theory is founded on the notion of a “consumer- producer”, who consumes as well as produces commodities. In this approach, the emergence of a meaningful social division of labour is guided by the property of increasing returns to specialisation and the process of trade among fully specialised individuals. All decisions of individual consumer-producers are based on a set of perfectly competitive market prices of the commodities in the economy.
We show that a perfectly competitive price mechanism supports a dichotomy of production and consumption at the level of the individual consumer-producer. In this context we show existence of competitive equilibria and characterise these equilibria under increasing returns to specialisation: Under certain well-described conditions, markets are equilibrated through adjustment of the social division of labour; therefore prices are fully determined by the supply side of the economy.

Liquidity, business cycles and monetary policy: A simulation

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Habit Formation and the Persistence of Monetary Shocks

This paper studies the persistent effects of monetary shocks on output. Previous empirical literature documents this persistence, but standard general equilibrium models with sticky prices fail to generate output responses beyond the duration of nominal contracts. This paper constructs and estimates a general equilibrium model with price rigidities, habit formation, and costly capital adjustment. The model is estimated via Maximum Likelihood using US data on output, the real money stock, and the nominal interest rate. Econometric results suggest that habit formation and adjustment costs to capital play an important role in explaining the output effects of monetary policy. In particular, impulse response analysis indicates that the model generates persistent, hump-shaped output responses to monetary shocks.