Influence of climate variability and stocking strategies on greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), production and profit of a northern Queensland beef cattle herd

Previous studies of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) from beef production systems in northern Australia have been based on models of ‘steady-state’ herd structures that do not take into account the considerable inter-annual variation in liveweight gain, reproduction and mortality rates that occurs due to seasonal conditions. Nor do they consider the implications of flexible stocking strategies designed to adapt these production systems to the highly variable climate. The aim of the present study was to quantify the variation in total GHGE (t CO2e) and GHGE intensity (t CO2e/t liveweight sold) for the beef industry in northern Australia when variability in these factors was considered. A combined GRASP–Enterprise modelling platform was used to simulate a breeding–finishing beef cattle property in the Burdekin River region of northern Queensland, using historical climate data from 1982–2011. GHGE was calculated using the method of Australian National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Five different stocking-rate strategies were simulated with fixed stocking strategies at moderate and high rates, and three flexible stocking strategies where the stocking rate was adjusted annually by up to 5%, 10% or 20%, according to pasture available at the end of the growing season. Variation in total annual GHGE was lowest in the ‘fixed moderate’ (~9.5 ha/adult equivalent (AE)) stocking strategy, ranging from 3799 to 4471 t CO2e, and highest in the ‘fixed high’ strategy (~5.9 ha/AE), which ranged from 3771 to 7636 t CO2e. The ‘fixed moderate’ strategy had the least variation in GHGE intensity (15.7–19.4 t CO2e/t liveweight sold), while the ‘flexible 20’ strategy (up to 20% annual change in AE) had the largest range (10.5–40.8 t CO2e/t liveweight sold). Across the five stocking strategies, the ‘fixed moderate’ stocking-rate strategy had the highest simulated perennial grass percentage and pasture growth, highest average rate of liveweight gain (121 kg/steer), highest average branding percentage (74%) and lowest average breeding-cow mortality rate (3.9%), resulting in the lowest average GHGE intensity (16.9 t CO2e/t liveweight sold). The ‘fixed high’ stocking rate strategy (~5.9 ha/AE) performed the poorest in each of these measures, while the three flexible stocking strategies were intermediate. The ‘fixed moderate’ stocking strategy also yielded the highest average gross margin per AE carried and per hectare. These results highlight the importance of considering the influence of climate variability on stocking-rate management strategies and herd performance when estimating GHGE. The results also support a body of previous work that has recommended the adoption of moderate stocking strategies to enhance the profitability and ecological stability of beef production systems in northern Australia.

Variabilidade do regime de monções sobre o Brasil: o clima presente e projeções para um cenário com 2xCO2 usando o modelo MIROC

Este trabalho investiga a variabilidade do Sistema de Monções da América do Sul (SMAS) sobre o Brasil com particular interesse na região do cerrado brasileiro. O início, final e total de precipitação durante as monções de verão são examinados utilizando estimativas de precipitação por satélite (pêntadas) do Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) entre 1979-2004. Analogamente, as características do regime de monção simuladas pelo modelo climático global acoplado MIROC (Model for interdisciplinary Research on Climate) do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) são examinadas em dois cenários distintos: o clima do século XX (1981-2000) e o clima em uma condição com o dobro da concentração atual de CO2 (2xCO2) na atmosfera (2061-2080). Mostra-se que a variabilidade espacial do início da monção de verão sobre o cerrado na simulação do clima do século XX pelo MIROC corresponde bem às observações. Além disso, há indicação de uma mudança das caudas da distribuição sazonal da precipitação no Cerrado para um cenário com 2xCO2, comparativamente com o clima presente. Este resultado sugere uma mudança na probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos extremos (secos ou úmidos) em um cenário com 2xCO2 sobre o cerrado, o que de acordo com o MIROC, indica uma maior exposição da região às conseqüências de possíveis mudanças climáticas resultantes do aumento de gases de efeito estufa.

VARIATION IN STOMATAL NUMBERS OF GLOSSOPTERIS LEAVES FROM THE LOWER PERMIAN OF PARANA BASIN, BRAZIL

The stomatal density and index in compressed leaves of Glossopteris communis from two different roof shales from the Lower Permian in Parana Basin, Brazil (Western Gondwana) have been investigated to test the possible relationship with modeled global changes in atmospheric CO(2) during the Phanerozoic. The obtained parameters show that the genus Glossopteris from the Cool Temperate biome can be used as CO(2) -proxy, despite the impossibility of being compared with living relatives or equivalents. When confronted with already published data for the Tropical Summer Wet biome, the present results confirm the detection of low levels of atmospheric CO(2) during the Early Permian, as predicted by the modeled curve. Nevertheless, the lower stomatal numbers detected at the climax of the coal interval (Faxinal Coalfield, Sakmarian) when compared to the higher ones obtained in leaves from a younger interval (Figueira Coalfield, Artinskian) could be attributed to temporarily high levels of atmospheric CO(2). Therefore, the occurrence of an extensive peat generating event at the southern part of the basin and subsequent greenhouse gases emissions from this environment may have been enough to reverse regionally and temporarily the reduction trend in atmospheric CO(2). Additionally, the Faxinal flora is preserved in a tonstein layer, which is a record of volcanic activity that could also cause a rise in atmospheric CO(2). During the Artinskian, the scarce generation of peat mires, as revealed by the occurrence of thin and discontinuous coal layers, and the lack of volcanism evidence would be insufficient to affect the general low CO(2) trend.

Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils in the Cerrado region of the Brazilian Amazon

The introduction of crop management practices after conversion of Amazon Cerrado into cropland influences soil C stocks and has direct and indirect consequences on greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The aim of this study was to quantify soil C sequestration, through the evaluation of the changes in C stocks, as well as the GHG fluxes (N(2)O and CH(4)) during the process of conversion of Cerrado into agricultural land in the southwestern Amazon region, comparing no-tillage (NT) and conventional tillage (CT) systems. We collected samples from soils and made gas flux measurements in July 2004 (the dry season) and in January 2005 (the wet season) at six areas: Cerrado, CT cultivated with rice for 1 year (1CT) and 2 years (2CT), and NT cultivated with soybean for 1 year (1NT), 2 years (2NT) and 3 years (3NT), in each case after a 2-year period of rice under CT. Soil samples were analyzed in both seasons for total organic C and bulk density. The soil C stocks, corrected for a mass of soil equivalent to the 0-30-cm layer under Cerrado, indicated that soils under NT had generally higher C storage compared to native Cerrado and CT soils. The annual C accumulation rate in the conversion of rice under CT into soybean under NT was 0.38 Mg ha(-1) year(-1). Although CO(2) emissions were not used in the C sequestration estimates to avoid double counting, we did include the fluxes of this gas in our discussion. In the wet season, CO(2) emissions were twice as high as in the dry season and the highest N(2)O emissions occurred under the NT system. There were no CH(4) emissions to the atmosphere (negative fluxes) and there were no significant seasonal variations. When N(2)O and CH(4) emissions in C-equivalent were subtracted (assuming that the measurements made on 4 days were representative of the whole year), the soil C sequestration rate of the conversion of rice under CT into soybean under NT was 0.23 Mg ha(-1) year(-1). Although there were positive soil C sequestration rates, our results do not present data regarding the full C balance in soil management changes in the Amazon Cerrado. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of blanks to determine in vitro net gas and methane production when using rumen fermentation modifiers

Blanks (flasks without substrate containing only inoculum and medium) are used in vitro to correct for gas. CH(4) and residual organic matter (OM) fermented in inoculum. However inclusion of rumen fermentation modifiers may affect fermentation of OM in the substrate and inoculum. Thus, data correction using blanks that lack additives may result in inaccurate adjustment for background fermentation. Our objective was to evaluate impacts of using blanks containing additive (i.e., specific blanks) or blanks without additive on estimation of in vitro net gas and CH(4) production. We used the semi-automatic in vitro gas production technique including monensin sodium at 2.08 mg/l of buffered rumen fluid (Experiment 1) or carvacrol, eugenol and 1,8-cineol at 667 mg/l (Experiment 2) in flasks with substrate and in blank flasks. At 16h of incubation, monensin reduced (P <= 0.02) total gas production in flasks containing substrate (162.0 ml versus 146.3 ml) and in blanks (84.4 ml versus 79.2 ml). Total methane production was also decreased (P <= 0.05) by adding monensin to flasks containing substrate (15.7 ml versus 11.9 ml) as well as in blanks (6.4 ml versus 5.0 ml). Inclusion of carvacrol or eugenol reduced (P <= 0.05) total gas and CH(4) production in flasks with substrate and in blanks, but in a more pronounced manner than monensin. For these three additives, correction for blank without additive resulted in lower net gas and CH(4) production than correction for a treatment specific blank. For instance, correcting carvacrol data using a blank without the additive resulted in negative net gas and CH(4) production (-6.5 and -1.5 ml. respectively). These biologically impossible results occurred because total gas and CH(4) production in blanks without carvacrol (46.1 and 2.1 ml, respectively) were higher than in flasks containing substrate plus carvacrol (39.7 and 0.6 ml, respectively). Results demonstrated that inclusion of rumen additives affected fermentation of OM in the substrate and the inoculum. Thus, correction of gas and CH(4) production using blanks without additives resulted in overestimation of these variables. Blanks containing the additive of interest should be included when rumen fermentation modifiers are evaluated in vitro. This paper is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions, Guest Edited by T.A. McAllister, Section Guest Editors: K.A. Beauchemin, X. Hao, S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology, P.H. Robinson. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Titanium phosphate for Fuel Cell Proton Conduction Membranes

Environmental issues due to increases in emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are driving the development of clean energy delivery technologies such as fuel cells. Low temperature Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells (PEMFC) use hydrogen as a fuel and their only emission is water. While significant advances have been made in recent years, a major limitation of the current technology is the cost and materials limitations of the proton conduction membrane. The proton exchange membrane performs three critical functions in the PEMFC membrane electrode assembly (MEA): (i) conduction of protons with minimal resistance from the anode (where they are generated from hydrogen) to the cathode (where they combine with oxygen and electrons, from the external circuit or load), (ii) providing electrical insulation between the anode and cathode to prevent shorting, and (iii) providing a gas impermeable barrier to prevent mixing of the fuel (hydrogen) and oxidant. The PFSA (perfluorosulphonic acid) family of membranes is currently the best developed proton conduction membrane commercially available, but these materials are limited to operation below 100oC (typically 80oC, or lower) due to the thermochemical limitations of this polymer. For both mobile and stationary applications, fuel cell companies require more durable, cost effective membrane technologies capable of delivering enhanced performance at higher temperatures (typically 120oC, or higher. This is driving research into a wide range of novel organic and inorganic materials with the potential to be good proton conductors and form coherent membranes. There are several research efforts recently reported in the literature employing inorganic nanomaterials. These include functionalised silica phosphates [1,2], fullerene [3] titania phosphates [4], zirconium pyrophosphate [5]. This work addresses the functionalisation of titania particles with phosphoric acid. Proton conductivity measurements are given together with structural properties.

Low input tillage/cropping systems for limited resource areas

Agriculture in limited resource areas is characterized by small farms which an generally too small to adequately support the needs of an average farm family. The farming operation can be described as a low input cropping system with the main energy source being manual labor, draught animals and in some areas hand tractors. These farming systems are the most important contributor to the national economy of many developing countries. The role of tillage is similar in dryland agricultural systems in both the high input (HICS) and low input cropping systems (LICS), however, wet cultivation or puddling is unique to lowland rice-based systems in low input cropping systems. Evidence suggest that tillage may result in marginal increases in crop yield in the short term, however, in the longer term it may be neutral or give rise to yield decreases associated with soil structural degradation. On marginal soils, tillage may be required to prepare suitable seedbeds or to release adequate Nitrogen through mineralization, but in the longer term, however, tillage reduces soil organic matter content, increases soil erodibility and the emission of greenhouse gases. Tillage in low input cropping systems involves a very large proportion of the population and any changes: in current practices such as increased mechanization will have a large social impact such as increased unemployment and increasing feminization of poverty, as mechanization may actually reduce jobs for women. Rapid mechanization is likely to result in failures, but slower change, accompanied by measures to provide alternative rural employment, might be beneficial. Agriculture in limited resource areas must produce the food and fiber needs of their community, and its future depends on the development of sustainable tillage/cropping systems that are suitable for the soil and climatic conditions. These should be based on sound biophysical principles and meet the needs of and he acceptable to the farming communities. Some of the principle requirements for a sustainable system includes the maintenance of soil health, an increase in the rain water use efficiency of the system, increased use of fertilizer and the prevention of erosion. The maintenance of crop residues on the surface is paramount for meeting these requirements, and the competing use of crop residues must be met from other sources. These requirements can be met within a zonal tillage system combined with suitable agroforestry, which will reduce the need for crop residues. It is, however, essential that farmers participate in the development of any new technologies to ensure adoption of the new system. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Cenários de mudanças climáticas para a América do Sul : impacto no zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar

O Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) através do seu Quarto Relatório de Avaliação das Mudanças Climáticas Globais (IPCC-AR4), publicado em 2007, atribui as emissões de gases de efeito estufa como a principal causa do aumento médio das temperaturas e alerta para uma elevação entre 1,8 ºC e 6,4 ºC até 2100, podendo modificar assim a aptidão climática para as culturas agrícolas em diversas regiões do planeta. Diante disso, existe a necessidade de substituição dos combustíveis fósseis por fontes renováveis e limpas de energia, como o etanol. A cana-de-açúcar apresenta-se, portanto, como uma cultura estratégica na produção do etanol. O presente trabalho teve como objetivos: 1) avaliar o desempenho dos Modelos Climáticos Globais (MCGs) do IPCC-AR4 na simulação de dados climáticos de temperatura do ar e precipitação pluviométrica para o período anual e mensal; 2) elaborar o zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar para a América do Sul considerando o clima referência e o futuro para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080 em função do cenário de emissão A1B considerado pessimista e que usa um equilíbrio entre todas as fontes de energia. Para a avaliação do desempenho dos MCGs, foram utilizados dados climáticos médios mensais observados de precipitação e temperatura do ar provenientes do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e dados simulados oriundos dos 22 MCGs do IPCC (cenário 20c3m) compreendidos entre o período de 1961-1990, além do Multimodel (ensemble) – MM que é a média da combinação dos dados de todos os modelos. O desempenho dos MCGs foi avaliado pelos índices estatísticos: desvio padrão, correlação, raiz quadrada da média do quadrado das diferenças centralizadas e o “bias” dos dados simulados com os observados, que foram representados no diagrama de Taylor. Para a etapa da elaboração do zoneamento agroclimático procedeu-se o cálculo dos balanços hídricos (referência e futuros) da cultura, pelo método de Thornthwaite & Mather (1955). Para o cenário referência, utilizaram-se dados das médias mensais da precipitação e temperatura provenientes do CRU, enquanto que para as projeções futuras, dados provenientes das anomalias do Multimodel (ensemble) – MM para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080, que foram ajustados, obtendo-se assim as projeções futuras para cada período analisado. Baseado nos mapas temáticos reclassificados de deficiência hídrica anual, temperatura média anual, excedente hídrico anual e no índice de satisfação das necessidades de água (ISNA), realizou-se uma sobreposição dessas informações obtendo assim, os mapas finais do zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar. Posteriormente ao zoneamento, realizou-se a análise das transições (ganhos, perdas e persistências) entre as classes de aptidão climática da cultura. Os resultados mostram que o Multimodel (ensemble) – MM para o período mensal apresenta o melhor desempenho entre os modelos analisados. As áreas inaptas correspondem a maior parte da América do Sul e uma expressiva transição entre as classes de aptidão climática da cultura.

Simulação interactiva do mercado de energia eléctrica

A área de comercialização de energia eléctrica conheceu uma profunda mudança após a liberalização do sector eléctrico, que levou à criação de algumas entidades, as quais gerem os mercados de electricidade europeus. Relativamente a Portugal e Espanha, durante esse processo de liberalização, deu-se também um acordo que os levou à criação de um mercado conjunto, um mercado Ibérico (MIBEL). Dentro deste mercado estão contemplados dois operadores, sendo que um deles representa o pólo Português (OMIP) e o outro representa o pólo Espanhol (OMEL). O OMIP contempla os mercados a prazo, ou futuros, normalmente apresenta contratos de energia comercializada com durabilidade de semanas, meses, trimestres, semestres ou mesmo anos. Diariamente estes contratos poderão vencer no OMEL, que engloba os mercados, diário e intradiário. Este, ao contrário do OMIP negoceia para o dia seguinte (mercado diário) ou para uma determinada altura do dia (mercado intra diário). O mercado diário será o exemplo usado para a criação do simulador interactivo do mercado de energia eléctrica. Este será composto por diversos utilizadores (jogadores), que através de uma plataforma HTML irão investir em centrais de energia eléctrica, negociar licitações e analisar o funcionamento e resultados deste mercado. Este jogo subdividir-se-á então em 3 fases: 1. Fase de investimento; 2. Fase de venda (licitações); 3. Fase de mercado. Na fase do investimento, o jogador terá a possibilidade de adquirir unidades de geração de energia eléctrica de seis tipos de tecnologia: 1. Central a Carvão; 2. Central de Ciclo Combinado; 3. Central Hídrica; 4. Central Eólica; 5. Central Solar; 6. Central Nuclear. Com o decorrer das jogadas o jogador poderá aumentar a sua capacidade de investimento, com a venda de energia, sendo o vencedor aquele que mais saldo tiver no fim do número de jogadas previamente definidos, ou aquele que mais depressa atingir o saldo definido como limite pelo administrador do jogo. A nível pedagógico este simulador é muito interessante pois para além de o utilizador ficar a conhecer as tecnologias em causa e as vantagens e desvantagens das centrais de energia renovável e das centrais a combustíveis fósseis, este ganha igualmente uma sensibilidade para questões de nível ambiental, tais como o aumento dos gases de estufa e o degelo resultante do aquecimento global provocado por esses gases. Para além do conhecimento adquirido na parte de energia eléctrica este jogo dará a conhecer ao utilizador o funcionamento do mercado da energia eléctrica, bem como as tácticas que este poderá usar a seu favor neste tipo de mercado.

Mudanças climáticas nas regiões insulares

Tese de Doutoramento, Física, 27 de Novembro de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

The electric vehicle integration into the power system: an application to the portuguese case

Electric vehicles (EV) offer a great potential to address the integration of renewable energy sources (RES) in the power grid, and thus reduce the dependence on oil as well as the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The high share of wind energy in the Portuguese energy mix expected for 2020 can led to eventual curtailment, especially during the winter when high levels of hydro generation occur. In this paper a methodology based on a unit commitment and economic dispatch is implemented, and a hydro-thermal dispatch is performed in order to evaluate the impact of the EVs integration into the grid. Results show that the considered 10 % penetration of EVs in the Portuguese fleet would increase load in 3 % and would not integrate a significant amount of wind energy because curtailment is already reduced in the absence of EVs. According to the results, the EV is charged mostly with thermal generation and the associated emissions are much higher than if they were calculated based on the generation mix.

Avaliação energética de uma escola

Mestrado em Engenharia Química

Convergência para NZEB de um edifício classificado

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Edificações