Theoretical and empirical essays on microeconometrics

This Master Thesis consists of one theoretical article and one empirical article on the field of Microeconometrics. The first chapter\footnote{We also thank useful suggestions by Marinho Bertanha, Gabriel Cepaluni, Brigham Frandsen, Dalia Ghanem, Ricardo Masini, Marcela Mello, Áureo de Paula, Cristine Pinto, Edson Severnini and seminar participants at São Paulo School of Economics, the California Econometrics Conference 2015 and the 37\textsuperscript{th} Brazilian Meeting of Econometrics.}, called \emph{Synthetic Control Estimator: A Generalized Inference Procedure and Confidence Sets}, contributes to the literature about inference techniques of the Synthetic Control Method. This methodology was proposed to answer questions involving counterfactuals when only one treated unit and a few control units are observed. Although this method was applied in many empirical works, the formal theory behind its inference procedure is still an open question. In order to fulfill this lacuna, we make clear the sufficient hypotheses that guarantee the adequacy of Fisher's Exact Hypothesis Testing Procedure for panel data, allowing us to test any \emph{sharp null hypothesis} and, consequently, to propose a new way to estimate Confidence Sets for the Synthetic Control Estimator by inverting a test statistic, the first confidence set when we have access only to finite sample, aggregate level data whose cross-sectional dimension may be larger than its time dimension. Moreover, we analyze the size and the power of the proposed test with a Monte Carlo experiment and find that test statistics that use the synthetic control method outperforms test statistics commonly used in the evaluation literature. We also extend our framework for the cases when we observe more than one outcome of interest (simultaneous hypothesis testing) or more than one treated unit (pooled intervention effect) and when heteroskedasticity is present. The second chapter, called \emph{Free Economic Area of Manaus: An Impact Evaluation using the Synthetic Control Method}, is an empirical article. We apply the synthetic control method for Brazilian city-level data during the 20\textsuperscript{th} Century in order to evaluate the economic impact of the Free Economic Area of Manaus (FEAM). We find that this enterprise zone had positive significant effects on Real GDP per capita and Services Total Production per capita, but it also had negative significant effects on Agriculture Total Production per capita. Our results suggest that this subsidy policy achieve its goal of promoting regional economic growth, even though it may have provoked mis-allocation of resources among economic sectors.

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2010

Includes bibliography

Meeting the millennium poverty reduction targets in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Barbados: public-private sector partnership

Includes bibliography

The Latin American development problem

Includes bibliography

Istmo Centroamericano y República Dominicana: evolución económica durante 2007 y perspectivas para 2008

Incluye Bibliografía

México: evolución económica durante 2008 y perspectivas para 2009

Incluye Bibliografía

Brazil’s Northeast Financing Constitutional Fund: Differentiated effects on municipal economic growth

This article investigates the effects of the investments made by the Northeast Financing Constitutional Fund (FNE) on the economic growth of that region's municipalities in the decade of 2000. To that end, it uses an empirical framework based on growth models that make it possible to form convergence clubs according to the municipalities' initial development level. The results corroborate the empirical strategy and reveal the existence of four groups of municipalities, in which investment flows through the FNE have different effects on growth. In general, the FNE produces positive and significant effects in most municipalities of the Northeast, except for those whose gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was either very low or very high at the start of the decade, in which case its effects are not significant.

The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Crescimento e desenvolvimento econômico de Cingapura após a independência

This paper analyzes the growth and development of Singapore after its independence. For this, we made a historical analysis of the country, attributing importance in their geographic, economic, demographic, cultural and social. Singapore does not have a representative agricultural sector; its economy is based on manufacturing and the financial sector. The development of such activities was through strong planning policies and stringent regulatory institutions. Singapore economy has evolved from a trading post to a major financial center worldwide. Shows high rates of GDP per capita, which is $ 50,000 in 2011. This country has the world's busiest port for container handling. Thus, industries are based on activities with high added value and attraction of foreign companies was due to the stability of the country, which helped the growth of it

Comportamento do IDEB nos municípios paulistas da região de Barretos e região central: algumas discussões para responsabilização e comprometimento

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Geografia da mortalidade no trânsito no Brasil

In road safety studies that involve accidents comparisons in distinct geographical spaces or in different periods of time in the same geographical space, the index which lists the number of traffic fatalities with the distance traveled by road transport vehicles is considered more appropriate than the rates related to the population or the fleet. In this paper, the results of an original research are presented, in which the values of the rate of traffic deaths per billion kilometers traveled (IMBQ) by the motor vehicle fleet in Brazil and in each state of the country were estimated. The evaluation was performed based on the official number of fatalities provided by the Ministry of Health and on the amount of fuel sold informed by the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels. In 2009, Brazil presented an index of 52.84 fatalities per billion kilometers, which reveals an extremely alarming situation considering that this value is from 7 to 12 times higher than the one for more developed countries. An important correlation between the death index in the states and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita was observed; in general, the less economically developed is the state, it means, lowest GDP, higher is the IMBQ.

Cost-effectiveness of introducing the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine into the universal immunisation of infants in Brazil

Background Cost-effectiveness studies have been increasingly part of decision processes for incorporating new vaccines into the Brazilian National Immunisation Program. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) in the universal childhood immunisation programme in Brazil. Methods A decision-tree analytical model based on the ProVac Initiative pneumococcus model was used, following 25 successive cohorts from birth until 5 years of age. Two strategies were compared: (1) status quo and (2) universal childhood immunisation programme with PCV10. Epidemiological and cost estimates for pneumococcal disease were based on National Health Information Systems and literature. A 'top-down' costing approach was employed. Costs are reported in 2004 Brazilian reals. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. Results 25 years after implementing the PCV10 immunisation programme, 10 226 deaths, 360 657 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), 433 808 hospitalisations and 5 117 109 outpatient visits would be avoided. The cost of the immunisation programme would be R$10 674 478 765, and the expected savings on direct medical costs and family costs would be R$1 036 958 639 and R$209 919 404, respectively. This resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of R$778 145/death avoided and R$22 066/DALY avoided from the society perspective. Conclusion The PCV10 universal infant immunisation programme is a cost-effective intervention (1-3 GDP per capita/DALY avoided). Owing to the uncertain burden of disease data, as well as unclear long-term vaccine effects, surveillance systems to monitor the long-term effects of this programme will be essential.

La valutazione degli effetti delle politiche di coesione dell'Unione europea sulla crescita regionale

This PhD thesis aims at providing an evaluation of EU Cohesion policy impact on regional growth. It employs methodologies and data sources never before applied for this purpose. Main contributions to the literature concerning EU regional policy effectiveness have been extensively analysed. Moreover, having carried out an overview of the current literature on Cohesion Policy, we deduce that this work introduces innovative features in the field. The work enriches the current literature with regards to two aspects. The first aspect concerns the use of the instrument of Regression Discontinuity Design in order to examine the presence of a different outcome in terms of growth between Objectives 1 regions and non-Objective 1 regions at the cut-off point (75 percent of EU-15 GDP per capita in PPS) during the two programming periods, 1994-1999 and 2000-2006. The results confirm a significant difference higher than 0.5 percent per year between the two groups. The other empirical evaluation regards the study of a cross-section regression model based on the convergence theory that analyses the dependence relation between regional per capita growth and EU Cohesion policy expenditure in several fields of interventions. We have built a very fine dataset of spending variables (certified expenditure), using sources of data directly provided from the Regional Policy Directorate of the European Commission.