Refining Risk Estimates Using Models (Chapter 4)

In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries
collaborated in the landmark study described in chapter 2 (Thomas et al., 2004a). This chapter provides an overview of results of studies published subsequently and assesses how much, and why, new results differ from those of Thomas et al.
Some species distribution modeling (SDM) studies are directly comparable to the Thomas et al. estimates. Others using somewhat different methods nonetheless illuminate whether the original estimates were of the right order of magnitude. Climate similarity models (Williams et al., 2007; Williams and Jackson, 2007), biome, and vegetation dynamic models (Perry and Enright, 2006) have also been
applied in the context of climate change, providing interesting opportunities
for comparison and cross-validation with results from SDMs.
This chapter concludes with an assessment of whether the range of extinction risk estimates presented in 2004 can be narrowed, and whether the mean estimate should be revised upward or downward. To set the stage for these analyses, the chapter begins with brief reviews of advances in climate modeling and species modeling since 2004.

The Klondike goldfields and Pleistocene environments of Beringia

The Klondike goldfields of Yukon, Canada, contain a key record of Pleistocene Beringia, the region of Alaska, Siberia, and Yukon that remained largely unglaciated during the late Cenozoic. A concentration of mining exposures, with relict permafrost that is locally more than 700,000 years old, provides exceptional preservation of paleoenvironmental archives and a new perspective on the nature of paleoenvironments during the Pleistocene. A critical feature is the stratigraphic association of distal tephra beds with these paleoenvironmental archives, which facilitates their regional correlation and, in many cases, provides independent ages for the paleoenvironmental assemblages. Paleoenvironmental analyses of fossil arctic ground-squirrel middens and buried vegetation indicate the presence of cryoxerophilous ("steppe-tundra") vegetation growing on well-drained substrates with deep active layers (seasonal thaw depths) during cold intervals of the Pleistocene. Studies of full-glacial paleosols and cryostratigraphic relations of associated ground ice indicate the importance of active loess deposition and surface vegetation cover in maintaining the functionally distinct mammoth-steppe biome, which supported grazing mega-fauna populations, including mammoth, horse, and bison.

Rapid succession of plant associations on the small ocean island of Mauritius at the onset of the Holocene

The island of Mauritius offers the opportunity to study the poorly understood vegetation response to climate change on a small tropical oceanic island. A high-resolution pollen record from a 10 m long peat core from Kanaka Crater (560 m elevation, Mauritius, Indian Ocean) shows that vegetation shifted from a stable open wet forest Last Glacial state to a stable closed-stratified-tall-forest Holocene state. An ecological threshold was crossed at ∼11.5 cal ka BP, propelling the forest ecosystem into an unstable period lasting ∼4000 years. The shift between the two steady states involves a cascade of four abrupt (<150 years) forest transitions in which different tree species dominated the vegetation for a quasi-stable period of respectively ∼1900, ∼1100 and ∼900 years. We interpret the first forest transition as climate-driven, reflecting the response of a small low topography oceanic island where significant spatial biome migration is impossible. The three subsequent forest transitions are not evidently linked to climate events, and are suggested to be driven by internal forest dynamics. The cascade of four consecutive events of species turnover occurred at a remarkably fast rate compared to changes during the preceding and following periods, and might therefore be considered as a composite tipping point in the ecosystem. We hypothesize that wet gallery forest, spatially and temporally stabilized by the drainage system, served as a long lasting reservoir of biodiversity and facilitated a rapid exchange of species with the montane forests to allow for a rapid cascade of plant associations.

Coleoptera and microbe biomass in Antarctic Dry Valley paleosols adjacent to the Inland Ice: Implications for Mars

Bulk paleosol samples collected from a Middle to Early Miocene moraine in the New Mountain area of the Dry Valleys, Antarctica, yielded Coleoptera exoskeletons and occasional endoskeletons showing considerable diagenetic effects along with several species of bacteria, all lodged in a dry-frozen but salt-rich horizon at shallow depth to the land surface. The till is at the older end of a chronologic sequence of glacial deposits, thought to have been deposited before the transition from wet-based to cold-based ice (similar to 15 Ma), and hence, entirely weathered in contact with the subaerial atmosphere. It is possible, though not absolutely verifiable, that the skeletons date from this early stage of emplacement having undergone modifications whenever light snowmelt occurred or salt concentrations lowered the freezing temperature to maintain water as liquid. Correlation of the Coleoptera species with cultured bacteria in the sample and the likelihood of co-habitation with Beauveria bassiani found in two adjacent, although younger paleosols, leads to new questions about the antiquity of the Coleoptera and the source of N and glucose from chitinase derived from the insects. The skeletons in the 831 section may date close to the oldest preserved chitin (Oligocene) yet found on Earth. While harsh Martian conditions make it seemingly intolerable for complex, multicellular organisms such as insects to exist in the near-surface and subaerially, life within similar cold, dry paleosol microenvironments (Cryosols) of Antarctica point to life potential for the Red Planet, especially when considering the relatively diverse microbe (bacteria and fungi) population. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Palynological perspectives on vegetation survey: a critical step for model-based reconstruction of Quaternary land cover

1. Quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation distribution and abundance from sedimentary pollen records provides an important baseline for understanding long term ecosystem dynamics and for the calibration of earth system process models such as regional-scale climate models, widely used to predict future environmental change. Most current approaches assume that the amount of pollen produced by each vegetation type, usually expressed as a relative pollen productivity term, is constant in space and time.
2. Estimates of relative pollen productivity can be extracted from extended R-value analysis (Parsons and Prentice, 1981) using comparisons between pollen assemblages deposited into sedimentary contexts, such as moss polsters, and measurements of the present day vegetation cover around the sampled location. Vegetation survey method has been shown to have a profound effect on estimates of model parameters (Bunting and Hjelle, 2010), therefore a standard method is an essential pre-requisite for testing some of the key assumptions of pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation; such as the assumption that relative pollen productivity is effectively constant in space and time within a region or biome.
3. This paper systematically reviews the assumptions and methodology underlying current models of pollen dispersal and deposition, and thereby identifies the key characteristics of an effective vegetation survey method for estimating relative pollen productivity in a range of landscape contexts.
4. It then presents the methodology used in a current research project, developed during a practitioner workshop. The method selected is pragmatic, designed to be replicable by different research groups, usable in a wide range of habitats, and requiring minimum effort to collect adequate data for model calibration rather than representing some ideal or required approach. Using this common methodology will allow project members to collect multiple measurements of relative pollen productivity for major plant taxa from several northern European locations in order to test the assumption of uniformity of these values within the climatic range of the main taxa recorded in pollen records from the region.

Brazilian savanna forest : conservation, medicinal reservoir and bioprospecting

This study aimed to analyse the Brazilian savanna forest from a Legal Reserve (LR) area from a perspective of conservation, reservoir of organic carbon and medicinal biomass for a prospective use of native medicinal plants. An ethnobotanical and ethnopharmacological survey was carried out close to a community settled in the rural area in the south of Tocantins, being selected 9 of the most cited species (cajuí- Anacardium othonianum; inharé-Brosimum gaudichaudii; jatobá-Hymenaeae courbaril; jenipapo-Genipa americana, aroeira-Myracrodruon urundeuva; negramina-Siparuna guianensis; barbatimão- Stryphnodendron obovatum; assa peixe-Vernonia brasiliana, embaúba-Cecropia pachystachya). Crude foliar extracts were subjected to a preliminary phytochemical prospection and triage of secondary metabolites with antimicrobial activity of potential interest in health and familiar agriculture. Phenolic compounds, terpenes and flavonoids were detected in the extracts of most species, which suggests the presence of antimicrobial, antioxidant and anti-insect activities. It was evident the need to better know the LR as a reservoir of medicinal biomass in an area under ecological tension where 35% (610ha) of the property is LR and should be protected by law. Therefore, a forest inventory of live woody species was performed using the allometric or indirect method. This identified a rare remnant of Semidecidual Seasonal Forest amidst the largest world savannah, the Cerrado biome. An analysis of the forest average productivity per basal area (m².ha), aerial live biomass (ton.ha-1) and carbon stock was carried out. The forest fragment was considered relatively rich in species and diversity, although showing signs of disturbance and dominance by a few species. Its horizontal structure suggests biotic regeneration conditions. It is an important reservoir of medicinal plants. Of the families (57.5%) presenting medicinal species, 19 from a total of 33 are represented in the area and contain 44% (27) of the total species (61) and 63% (432) of the total individuals catalogued. Medicinal species have ecological importance for the equilibrium of the local flora and represent 80% of the 10 species with higher Importance Value Index (IVI): Tetragastris altissima, Chrysophyllum marginatum, Oenocarpus distichus, Sclerolobium paniculatum, Simarouba versicolor, Alibertia macrophylla, Siparuna guianensis, Maprounea guianensis, Licania parvifolia e Physocalymma scaberrimum. Medicinal productivity was high for this type of phytophysionomy: 183,2 ton. ha-1 of biomass and 91,51 ton. ha-1 of carbon representing 66% of the total biomass and carbon of this Cerrado forest. From this stage S. guianensis (Siparunaceae) was selected for performing bioassays in order to verify its biological activity against microorganisms of health and agricultural relevance. This is a native aromatic medicinal plant recommended as priority for conservation, with local popular medicinal validation and availability of medicinal feedstock (3300 Kg.ha-1), with the foliar fraction giving 38Kg/ha of crude extract and 5L/ha of essential oil. Foliar crude extracts and essential oil were obtained and tested in vitro using a disk diffusion bioassay. Different concentrations of these natural products were tested against gram-positive bacteria (Staphylococcus aureus ATCC 29213), gram-negative bacteria (Escherichia coli ATCC 25922 and ATCC 35218; Pseudomonas aeruginosa ATCC 10145) and fungi (Candida albicans ATCC 6258 e Fusarium oxysporum). The essential oil inhibited the growth of S. aureus in its crude concentration (380μg.mL-1), as well as diluted to half (190μg.mL-1) and a quarter strength (95μg.mL-1). It’s likely that such action is due to sesquiterpenes major components, such as bisabolol and bisabolene (10.35%), measured by gas chromatography (GC-MS, GC-FID). Extracts did not exhibit any antimicrobial activity against the microorganisms tested. The native medicinal plants prospective market is an alternative that favours the conservation of biodiversity while generating benefits for the development of sustainable family productive activities within local ecosystems instead of the current inappropriate uses. This strengthens conservation policies of Legal Reserve in rural settlements and is in agreement with public policy on global warming and climate changes.

Ecology and conservation of felids in the Brazilian pantanal

Habitat conversion and environmental degradation have reached alarming levels in the Pantanal, endangering all its biodiversity. This scenario is complicated by the fact that the biome relies on only a few protected areas, which combined do not exceed 10% of the territory. Felids, as predators, play a vital role in the maintenance of this ecosystem, but require large areas, have low population densities and, typically, are very sensitive to environmental disturbances. Amolar Mountain Ridge is considered an area of extreme importance and high priority for conservation within the biome. There are four species of felids in this region: the jaguar (Panthera onca), the puma (Puma concolor), the ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), and jaguarundi (Puma yagouaroundi). However, little is known about the ecology of these species in this region or the magnitude of interaction between the communities living around the protected areas and the animals. The goal of this study was to increase our knowledge about these felids and understand how people interact with them in order to contribute to their conservation in the network of parks within Amolar. Camera trapping surveys were carried out in two areas of the network, covering approximately 83,000 hectares, in order to identify the species of mammals occurring in the region, those that may be potential prey for the felids, and to obtain basic ecological data about both felids and prey. In addition, we conducted surveys in three riverside schools in order to assess the knowledge, perceptions and attitudes of schoolchildren regarding the four focal felids, and surveys among the adult population to assess their perceptions and attitudes towards the jaguar. We recorded a total of 33 species of mammals from both study areas. The large cats were cathemeral, reflecting the temporal activity of larger prey, whereas the ocelot was nocturnal, mirroring the activity of smaller prey. Jaguar occupancy was influenced by prey abundance, while puma occupancy was influenced by patch density in drier dense forest. Jaguars and pumas may be competitors over temporal and spatial scales, while no resource overlap was found for ocelots. Overall, both adults and children tended to have negative perceptions about the cats, which were related to the fear of being attacked. To increase awareness about the species and to maximize the effectiveness of protective measures in the network of reserves, it is recommended to develop and implement an Environmental Educational Program in the medium- to long-term in order to minimize the fear of these felids and to counsel locals on the role of felids in the maintenance of the Pantanal’s biodiversity.

Mapeamento de áreas queimadas usando séries temporais normalizadas derivadas de dados NBR-MODIS durante o período 2001-2014 no Parque Nacional das Emas

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Humanas, Departamento de Geografia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia, 2015.

The origins of C4 grasslands: integrating evolutionary and ecosystem science.

The evolution of grasses using C4 photosynthesis and their sudden rise to ecological dominance 3 to 8 million years ago is among the most dramatic examples of biome assembly in the geological record. A growing body of work suggests that the patterns and drivers of C4 grassland expansion were considerably more complex than originally assumed. Previous research has benefited substantially from dialog between geologists and ecologists, but current research must now integrate fully with phylogenetics. A synthesis of grass evolutionary biology with grassland ecosystem science will further our knowledge of the evolution of traits that promote dominance in grassland systems and will provide a new context in which to evaluate the relative importance of C4 photosynthesis in transforming ecosystems across large regions of Earth.

Broad-scale adaptive genetic variation in alpine plants is driven by temperature and precipitation.

Identifying adaptive genetic variation is a challenging task, in particular in non-model species for which genomic information is still limited or absent. Here, we studied distribution patterns of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) in response to environmental variation, in 13 alpine plant species consistently sampled across the entire European Alps. Multiple linear regressions were performed between AFLP allele frequencies per site as dependent variables and two categories of independent variables, namely Moran's eigenvector map MEM variables (to account for spatial and unaccounted environmental variation, and historical demographic processes) and environmental variables. These associations allowed the identification of 153 loci of ecological relevance. Univariate regressions between allele frequency and each environmental factor further showed that loci of ecological relevance were mainly correlated with MEM variables. We found that precipitation and temperature were the best environmental predictors, whereas topographic factors were rarely involved in environmental associations. Climatic factors, subject to rapid variation as a result of the current global warming, are known to strongly influence the fate of alpine plants. Our study shows, for the first time for a large number of species, that the same environmental variables are drivers of plant adaptation at the scale of a whole biome, here the European Alps.

Biomethanation of syngas: identification of metabolic pathways from CO in a natural anaerobic consortium

Au cours des dernières décennies, l’intérêt pour la gazéification de biomasses a considérablement augmenté, notamment en raison de la grande efficacité de recouvrement énergétique de ce procédé par rapport aux autres procédés de génération de bioénergies. Les composants majoritaires du gaz de synthèse, le monoxyde de carbone (CO) et l’hydrogène (H2) peuvent entre autres servir de substrats à divers microorganismes qui peuvent produire une variété de molécules chimiques d’intérêts, ou encore produire des biocarburants, particulièrement le méthane. Il est donc important d'étudier les consortiums méthanogènes naturels qui, en syntrophie, serait en mesure de convertir le gaz de synthèse en carburants utiles. Cette étude évalue principalement le potentiel de méthanisation du CO par un consortium microbien issu d’un réacteur de type UASB, ainsi que les voies métaboliques impliquées dans cette conversion en conditions mésophiles. Des tests d’activité ont donc été réalisés avec la boue anaérobie du réacteur sous différentes pressions partielles de CO variant de 0.1 à 1,65 atm (0.09 à 1.31 mmol CO/L), en présence ou absence de certains inhibiteurs métaboliques spécifiques. Dès le départ, la boue non acclimatée au CO présente une activité carboxidotrophique relativement intéressante et permet une croissance sur le CO. Les tests effectués avec de l’acide 2- bromoethanesulfonique (BES) ou avec de la vancomycine démontrent que le CO est majoritairement consommé par les bactéries acétogènes avant d’être converti en méthane par les méthanogènes acétotrophes. De plus, un plus grand potentiel de méthanisation a pu être atteint sous une atmosphère constituée uniquement de CO en acclimatant auparavant la boue. Cette adaptation est caractérisée par un changement dans la population microbienne désormais dominée par les méthanogènes hydrogénotrophes. Ceci suggère un potentiel de production à large échelle de biométhane à partir du gaz de synthèse avec l’aide de biofilms anaérobies.

La dynamique spatio-temporelle des flux d’oxyde nitreux (N2O) des lacs, rivières, et étangs boréaux

L’oxyde nitreux (N2O), un puissant gaz à effet de serre (GES) ayant plus de 300 fois le potentiel de réchauffement du dioxyde de carbone (CO2), est produit par des processus microbiens du cycle de l’azote (N). Bien que les eaux de surface continentales soient reconnues comme des sites actifs de transformations de l’azote, leur intégration dans les budgets globaux de N2O comporte de nombreuses incertitudes, dont l’absence des lacs dans ces modèles. Le biome boréal est caractérisé par une des plus grandes densités d’eaux douces au monde, pourtant aucune évaluation exhaustive des émissions aquatiques de N2O n’a à date été conduite dans cette région. Dans la présente étude, nous avons mesuré les concentrations de N2O à travers une large gamme de lacs, rivières, et étangs, dans quatre régions boréales du Québec (Canada), et nous avons calculé les flux eau-air résultants. Les flux nets fluctuent entre -23.1 et 177.9 μmol m-2 J-1, avec une grande variabilité inter-système, inter-régionale, et saisonnière. Étonnamment, 40% des systèmes échantillonnés agissaient en tant que puits de N2O durant l’été, et le réseau d’eaux de surfaces d’une des régions était un net consommateur de N2O. Les concentrations maximales de N2O ont été mesurées en hiver dû à l’accumulation de ce gaz sous la glace. Nous avons estimé que l’émission qui en résulte lors de la fonte des glaces représente 20% des émissions annuelles des eaux douces. Parmi les types d’eaux douces échantillonnées, les lacs sont les principaux responsables du flux aquatique net (jusqu’à 90%), et doivent donc être intégrés dans les budgets globaux de N2O. En se basant sur les données empiriques de la littérature, nous avons éstimé l’émission globale de N2O des eaux douces à 0.78 Tg N (N2O) an-1. Ce chiffre est influencé par les émissions des régions de hautes latitudes (tel que le biome boréal) dont les flux nets varient de positif à négatif constituant -9 à 27 % du total.

An Ethic of Connectedness: Book Review of The Connected Self: The Ethics and Governance of the Genetic Individual

Compte-rendu / Review

Systématique et biogéographie du groupe Caesalpinia (famille Leguminosae)

Parmi les lignées des Caesalpinioideae (dans la famille des Leguminosae), l’un des groupes importants au sein duquel les relations phylogénétiques demeurent nébuleuses est le « groupe Caesalpinia », un clade de plus de 205 espèces, réparties présentement entre 14 à 21 genres. La complexité taxonomique du groupe Caesalpinia provient du fait qu’on n’arrive pas à résoudre les questions de délimitations génériques de Caesalpinia sensu lato (s.l.), un regroupement de 150 espèces qui sont provisoirement classées en huit genres. Afin d’arriver à une classification générique stable, des analyses phylogénétiques de cinq loci chloroplastiques et de la région nucléaire ITS ont été effectuées sur une matrice comportant un échantillonnage taxonomique du groupe sans précédent (~84% des espèces du groupe) et couvrant la quasi-totalité de la variation morphologique et géographique du groupe Caesalpinia. Ces analyses ont permis de déterminer que plusieurs genres du groupe Caesalpinia, tels que présentement définis, sont polyphylétiques ou paraphylétiques. Nous considérons que 26 clades bien résolus représentent des genres, et une nouvelle classification générique du groupe Caesalpinia est proposée : elle inclut une clé des genres, une description des 26 genres et des espèces acceptées au sein de ces groupes. Cette nouvelle classification maintient l’inclusion de douze genres (Balsamocarpon, Cordeauxia, Guilandina, Haematoxylum, Hoffmanseggia, Lophocarpinia, Mezoneuron, Pomaria, Pterolobium, Stenodrepanum, Stuhlmannia, Zuccagnia) et en abolit deux (Stahlia et Poincianella). Elle propose aussi de réinstaurer deux genres (Biancaea et Denisophytum), de reconnaître cinq nouveaux genres (Arquita, Gelrebia, Hererolandia, Hultholia et Paubrasilia), et d’amender la description de sept genres (Caesalpinia, Cenostigma, Coulteria, Erythrostemon, Libidibia, Moullava, Tara). Les résultats indiquent qu’il y aurait possiblement aussi une 27e lignée qui correspondrait au genre Ticanto, mais un échantillonage taxonomique plus important serait nécéssaire pour éclaircir ce problème. Les espèces du groupe Caesalpinia ont une répartition pantropicale qui correspond presque parfaitement aux aires du biome succulent, mais se retrouvent aussi dans les déserts, les prairies, les savanes et les forêts tropicales humides. À l’échelle planétaire, le biome succulent consiste en une série d’habitats arides ou semi-arides hautement fragmentés et caractérisés par l’absence de feu, et abrite souvent des espèces végétales grasses, comme les Cactacées dans les néo-tropiques et les Euphorbiacées en Afrique. L’histoire biogéographique du groupe Caesalpinia a été reconstruite afin de mieux comprendre l’évolution de la flore au sein de ce biome succulent. Ce portrait biogéographique a été obtenu grâce à des analyses de datations moléculaires et des changements de taux de diversification, à une reconstruction des aires ancestrales utilisant le modèle de dispersion-extinction-cladogenèse, et à la reconstruction de l’évolution des biomes et du port des plantes sur la phylogénie du groupe Caesalpinia. Ces analyses démontrent que les disjonctions trans-continentales entre espèces sœurs qui appartiennent au même biome sont plus fréquentes que le nombre total de changements de biomes à travers la phylogénie, suggérant qu’il y a une forte conservation de niches, et qu’il est plus facile de bouger que de changer et d’évoluer au sein d’un biome différent. Par ailleurs, contrairement à nos hypothèses initiales, aucun changement de taux de diversification n’est détecté dans la phylogénie, même lorsque les espèces évoluent dans des biomes différents ou qu’il y a changement de port de la plante, et qu’elle se transforme, par exemple, en liane ou herbacée. Nous suggérons que même lorsqu’ils habitent des biomes très différents, tels que les savanes ou les forêts tropicales humides, les membres du groupe Caesalpinia se retrouvent néanmoins dans des conditions écologiques locales qui rappellent celles du biome succulent. Finalement, bien que la diversité des espèces du biome succulent ne se compare pas à celle retrouvée dans les forêts tropicales humides, ce milieu se distingue par un haut taux d’espèces endémiques, réparties dans des aires disjointes. Cette diversité spécifique est probablement sous-estimée et mérite d’être évaluée attentivement, comme en témoigne la découverte de plusieurs nouvelles espèces d’arbres et arbustes de légumineuses dans la dernière décennie. Le dernier objectif de cette thèse consiste à examiner les limites au niveau spécifique du complexe C. trichocarpa, un arbuste des Andes ayant une population disjointe au Pérou qui représente potentiellement une nouvelle espèce. Des analyses morphologiques et moléculaires sur les populations présentes à travers les Andes permettent de conclure que les populations au Pérou représentent une nouvelle espèce, qui est génétiquement distincte et comporte des caractéristiques morphologiques subtiles permettant de la distinguer des populations retrouvées en Argentine et en Bolivie. Nous décrivons cette nouvelle espèce, Arquita grandiflora, dans le cadre d’une révision taxonomique du genre Arquita, un clade de cinq espèces retrouvées exclusivement dans les vallées andines.

L'estudi dels incendis en el món mediterrani

This article discusses briefly the evolution of fire in the Mediterranean biome and reviews afterwards the main research themes that geographers, ecologists and botanists have developed around forest fires issues in the Mediterranean