Stochastic climate theory and modeling

Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as subgrid-scale parameterizations (SSPs) as well as for model error representation, uncertainty quantification, data assimilation, and ensemble prediction. The need to use stochastic approaches in weather and climate models arises because we still cannot resolve all necessary processes and scales in comprehensive numerical weather and climate prediction models. In many practical applications one is mainly interested in the largest and potentially predictable scales and not necessarily in the small and fast scales. For instance, reduced order models can simulate and predict large-scale modes. Statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory suggest that in reduced order models the impact of unresolved degrees of freedom can be represented by suitable combinations of deterministic and stochastic components and non-Markovian (memory) terms. Stochastic approaches in numerical weather and climate prediction models also lead to the reduction of model biases. Hence, there is a clear need for systematic stochastic approaches in weather and climate modeling. In this review, we present evidence for stochastic effects in laboratory experiments. Then we provide an overview of stochastic climate theory from an applied mathematics perspective. We also survey the current use of stochastic methods in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models and show that stochastic parameterizations have the potential to remedy many of the current biases in these comprehensive models.

Electronic structure of Pd multi-layers on Re(0001): the role of charge transfer

Understanding the origin of the properties of metal-supported metal thin films is important for the rational design of bimetallic catalysts and other applications, but it is generally difficult to separate effects related to strain from those arising from interface interactions. Here we use density functional (DFT) theory to examine the structure and electronic behavior of few-layer palladium films on the rhenium (0001) surface, where there is negligible interfacial strain and therefore other effects can be isolated. Our DFT calculations predict stacking sequences and interlayer separations in excellent agreement with quantitative low-energy electron diffraction experiments. By theoretically simulating the Pd core-level X-ray photoemission spectra (XPS) of the films, we are able to interpret and assign the basic features of both low-resolution and high-resolution XPS measurements. The core levels at the interface shift to more negative energies, rigidly following the shifts in the same direction of the valence d-band center. We demonstrate that the valence band shift at the interface is caused by charge transfer from Re to Pd, which occurs mainly to valence states of hybridized s-p character rather than to the Pd d-band. Since the d-band filling is roughly constant, there is a correlation between the d-band center shift and its bandwidth. The resulting effect of this charge transfer on the valence d-band is thus analogous to the application of a lateral compressive strain on the adlayers. Our analysis suggests that charge transfer should be considered when describing the origin of core and valence band shifts in other metal / metal adlayer systems.

Change escalation processes and complex adaptive systems: from incremental reconfigurations to discontinuous restructuring

This study examines when “incremental” change is likely to trigger “discontinuous” change, using the lens of complex adaptive systems theory. Going beyond the simulations and case studies through which complex adaptive systems have been approached so far, we study the relationship between incremental organizational reconfigurations and discontinuous organizational restructurings using a large-scale database of U.S. Fortune 50 industrial corporations. We develop two types of escalation process in organizations: accumulation and perturbation. Under ordinary conditions, it is perturbation rather than the accumulation that is more likely to trigger subsequent discontinuous change. Consistent with complex adaptive systems theory, organizations are more sensitive to both accumulation and perturbation in conditions of heightened disequilibrium. Contrary to expectations, highly interconnected organizations are not more liable to discontinuous change. We conclude with implications for further research, especially the need to attend to the potential role of managerial design and coping when transferring complex adaptive systems theory from natural systems to organizational systems.

Pensamento teórico e formação docente: apropriação de saberes da tradição lúdica na perspectiva da teoria da formação das ações mentais por etapas de P. Ya. Galperin

The study investigated the possibility of organizing a didactics unit for formation of hability of identifying and explaining the popular traditional games in the process of licensed formation in physical education. Had basic premised, the thesis formulated by Piorte Yakovleviche Galperin that the fundamental condition that mode determines the student s way of thinking and the theoretical structures thought. Is given by the method of organization activity that form the basis of guiding skills assimilates from this assumption the study defended the thesis that the contents of popular traditional games can be organizeds according the systemic functional-structural focus. As a method to plan a didactics unit that contributes to development of theoretical thought and the professional development of graduates in physical education. In this sense the general goal was studied and develop a training proposal of ability to identify and explain the popular traditional games for physical education teachers oriented to contribute to the development of theoretical thought. In the construction process of the thesis in a first moment was determined the invariant conceptual of popular traditional games from the method of analysis of activity, after was organized the content of popular traditional games according to the structural-functional systems revealing the essential properties elements and levels of relationship.These procedures provided to the construction elements of the concept popular traditional games, and was the basis for planning a didactical unit to the formation of ability to study. These strategies enable to build a set of prepositions to argue, as a result of the increases in the knowledge of the professional formation in physical education. The study was introduced the fallowing contributions; formulated a teaching proposal to develop the ability to identify popular traditional games, as a cultural and historical contribution and the development of an individual, in initial formation of physical education teacher, attuned to the demands of training and use of knowledge that requires this level of education, defined and organized the knowledge of popular traditional games , this enables a teaching able to raise the cognitive abilities and the theoretical concept of personality of graduated in physical education

PENSAMENTO TEÓRICO E FORMAÇÃO DOCENTE: apropriação de saberes da tradição lúdica na perspectiva da teoria da formação das ações mentais por etapas de P. Ya. Galperin

The study investigated the possibility of organizing a didactics unit for formation of hability of identifying and explaining the popular traditional games in the process of licensed formation in physical education. Had basic premised, the thesis formulated by Piorte Yakovleviche Galperin that the fundamental condition that mode determines the student s way of thinking and the theoretical structures thought. Is given by the method of organization activity that form the basis of guiding skills assimilates from this assumption the study defended the thesis that the contents of popular traditional games can be organizeds according the systemic functional-structural focus. As a method to plan a didactics unit that contributes to development of theoretical thought and the professional development of graduates in physical education. In this sense the general goal was studied and develop a training proposal of ability to identify and explain the popular traditional games for physical education teachers oriented to contribute to the development of theoretical thought. In the construction process of the thesis in a first moment was determined the invariant conceptual of popular traditional games from the method of analysis of activity, after was organized the content of popular traditional games according to the structural-functional systems revealing the essential properties elements and levels of relationship.These procedures provided to the construction elements of the concept popular traditional games, and was the basis for planning a didactical unit to the formation of ability to study. These strategies enable to build a set of prepositions to argue, as a result of the increases in the knowledge of the professional formation in physical education. The study was introduced the fallowing contributions; formulated a teaching proposal to develop the ability to identify popular traditional games, as a cultural and historical contribution and the development of an individual, in initial formation of physical education teacher, attuned to the demands of training and use of knowledge that requires this level of education, defined and organized the knowledge of popular traditional games , this enables a teaching able to raise the cognitive abilities and the theoretical concept of personality of graduated in physical education

Study of Singularities in Nonsmooth Dynamical Systems via Singular Perturbation

In this article we describe some qualitative and geometric aspects of nonsmooth dynamical systems theory around typical singularities. We also establish an interaction between nonsmooth systems and geometric singular perturbation theory. Such systems are represented by discontinuous vector fields on R(l), l >= 2, where their discontinuity set is a codimension one algebraic variety. By means of a regularization process proceeded by a blow-up technique we are able to bring about some results that bridge the space between discontinuous systems and singularly perturbed smooth systems. We also present an analysis of a subclass of discontinuous vector fields that present transient behavior in the 2-dimensional case, and we dedicate a section to providing sufficient conditions in order for our systems to have local asymptotic stability.

Local dimension and finite time prediction in spatiotemporal chaotic systems

Predictability is related to the uncertainty in the outcome of future events during the evolution of the state of a system. The cluster weighted modeling (CWM) is interpreted as a tool to detect such an uncertainty and used it in spatially distributed systems. As such, the simple prediction algorithm in conjunction with the CWM forms a powerful set of methods to relate predictability and dimension.

Management of vomplex systems: Modeling the biological pest control

The aim of this paper is to study the cropping system as complex one, applying methods from theory of dynamic systems and from the control theory to the mathematical modeling of the biological pest control. The complex system can be described by different mathematical models. Based on three models of the pest control, the various scenarios have been simulated in order to obtain the pest control strategy only through natural enemies' introduction. © 2008 World Scientific Publishing Company.

Generic bifurcation of refracted systems

In this article we discuss some qualitative and geometric aspects of non-smooth dynamical systems theory. Our goal is to study the diagram bifurcation of typical singularities that occur generically in one parameter families of certain piecewise smooth vector fields named Refracted Systems. Such systems has a codimension-one submanifold as its discontinuity set. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Zoneamento geoambiental da área urbana do município de Cubatão - SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Simulação atomística de sistema em nanoescala

Pós-graduação em Física - IGCE

Temporal constraints in large optical flow estimation

[EN] The aim of this work is to propose a model for computing the optical flow in a sequence of images. We introduce a new temporal regularizer that is suitable for large displacements. We propose to decouple the spatial and temporal regularizations to avoid an incongruous formulation. For the spatial regularization we use the Nagel-Enkelmann operator and a newly designed temporal regularization. Our model is based on an energy functional that yields a partial differential equation (PDE). This PDE is embedded into a multipyramidal strategy to recover large displacements. A gradient descent technique is applied at each scale to reach the minimum.

Structure, organization and dynamics of functional supramolecular materials studied by solid-state NMR

Functional materials have great importance due to their many important applications. The characterization of supramolecular architectures which are held together by non-covalent interactions is of most importance to understand their properties. Solid-state NMR methods have recently been proven to be able to unravel such structure-property relations with the help of fast magic-angle spinning and advanced pulse sequences. The aim of the current work is to understand the structure and dynamics of functional supramolecular materials which are potentially important for fuel-cell (proton conducting membrane materials) and solar-cell or plastic-electronic applications (photo-reactive aromatic materials). In particular, hydrogen-bonding networks, local proton mobility, molecular packing arrangements, and local dynamics will be studied by the use of advanced solid-state NMR methods. The first class of materials studied in this work is proton conducting polymers which also form hydrogen-bonding network. Different materials, which are prepared for high 1H conduction by different approaches are studied: PAA-P4VP, PVPA-ABPBI, Tz5Si, and Triazole-functional systems. The materials are examples of the following major groups; - Homopolymers with specific functional groups (Triazole functional polysiloxanes). - Acid-base polymer blends approach (PAA-P4VP, PVPA-ABPBI). - Acid-base copolymer approach (Triazole-PVPA). - Acid doped polymers (Triazole functional polymer doped with H3PO4). Perylenebisimide (PBI) derivatives, a second type of important functional supramolecular materials with potent applications in plastic electronics, were also investigated by means of solid-state NMR. The preparation of conducting nanoscopic fibers based on the self-assembling functional units is an appealing aim as they may be incorporated in molecular electronic devices. In this category, perylene derivatives have attracted great attention due to their high charge carrier mobility. A detailed knowledge about their supramolecular structure and molecular dynamics is crucial for the understanding of their electronic properties. The aim is to understand the structure, dynamics and packing arrangements which lead to high electron conductivity in PBI derivatives.

Discrete Event Systems based Design Patterns for Diagnosability Analysis of Automated Manufacturing Systems

The main goal of this thesis is to facilitate the process of industrial automated systems development applying formal methods to ensure the reliability of systems. A new formulation of distributed diagnosability problem in terms of Discrete Event Systems theory and automata framework is presented, which is then used to enforce the desired property of the system, rather then just verifying it. This approach tackles the state explosion problem with modeling patterns and new algorithms, aimed for verification of diagnosability property in the context of the distributed diagnosability problem. The concepts are validated with a newly developed software tool.

Risk Judgment in Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder: Testing a Dual-Systems Account

Dual-systems theorists posit distinct modes of reasoning. The intuition system reasons automatically and its processes are unavailable to conscious introspection. The deliberation system reasons effortfully while its processes recruit working memory. The current paper extends the application of such theories to the study of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD). Patients with OCD often retain insight into their irrationality, implying dissociable systems of thought: intuition produces obsessions and fears that deliberation observes and attempts (vainly) to inhibit. To test the notion that dual-systems theory can adequately describe OCD, we obtained speeded and unspeeded risk judgments from OCD patients and non-anxious controls in order to quantify the differential effects of intuitive and deliberative reasoning. As predicted, patients deemed negative events to be more likely than controls. Patients also took more time in producing judgments than controls. Furthermore, when forced to respond quickly patients' judgments were more affected than controls'. Although patients did attenuate judgments when given additional time, their estimates never reached the levels of controls'. We infer from these data that patients have genuine difficulty inhibiting their intuitive cognitive system. Our dual-systems perspective is compatible with current theories of the disorder. Similar behavioral tests may prove helpful in better understanding related anxiety disorders. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.