National perspectives on climate change adaptation: A panel discussion of climate change adaptation efforts in diverse coastal regions of the United States

Climate change has rapidly emerged as a significant threat to coastal areas around the world. While uncertainty regarding distribution, intensity, and timescale inhibits our ability to accurately forecast potential impacts, it is widely accepted that changes in global climate will result in a variety of significant environmental, social, and economic impacts. Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and the implications of sea-level rise, and coastal communities must develop the capacity to adapt to climate change in order to protect people, property, and the environment along our nation’s coasts. The U.S. coastal zone is highly complex and variable, consisting of several regions that are characterized by unique geographic, economic, social and environmental factors. The degree of risk and vulnerability associated with climate change can vary greatly depending on the exposure and sensitivity of coastal resources within a given area. The ability of coastal communities to effectively adapt to climate change will depend greatly on their ability to develop and implement feasible strategies that address unique local and regional factors. A wide variety of resources are available to assist coastal states in developing their approach to climate change adaptation. However, given the complex and variable nature of the U.S. coastline, it is unlikely that a single set of guidelines can adequately address the full range of adaptation needs at the local and regional levels. This panel seeks to address some of the unique local and regional issues facing coastal communities throughout the U.S. including anticipated physical, social, economic and environmental impacts, existing resources and guidelines for climate change adaptation, current approaches to climate change adaptation planning, and challenges and opportunities for developing adaptation strategies. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Nuclear Hartree-Fock calculations on parallel computers

Hartree-Fock (HF) calculations have had remarkable success in describing large nuclei at high spin, temperature and deformation. To allow full range of possible deformations, the Skyrme HF equations can be discretized on a three-dimensional mesh. However, such calculations are currently limited by the computational resources provided by traditional supercomputers. To take advantage of recent developments in massively parallel computing technology, we have implemented the LLNL Skyrme-force static and rotational HF codes on Intel's DELTA and GAMMA systems at Caltech.

We decomposed the HF code by assigning a portion of the mesh to each node, with nearest neighbor meshes assigned to nodes connected by communication· channels. This kind of decomposition is well-suited for the DELTA and the GAMMA architecture because the only non-local operations are wave function orthogonalization and the boundary conditions of the Poisson equation for the Coulomb field.

Our first application of the HF code on parallel computers has been the study of identical superdeformed (SD) rotational bands in the Hg region. In the last ten years, many SD rotational bands have been found experimentally. One very surprising feature found in these SD rotational bands is that many pairs of bands in nuclei that differ by one or two mass units have nearly identical deexcitation gamma-ray energies. Our calculations of the five rotational bands in ^(192)Hg and ^(194)Pb show that the filling of specific orbitals can lead to bands with deexcitation gamma-ray energies differing by at most 2 keV in nuclei differing by two mass units and over a range of angular momenta comparable to that observed experimentally. Our calculations of SD rotational bands in the Dy region also show that twinning can be achieved by filling or emptying some specific orbitals.

The interpretation of future precise experiments on atomic parity nonconservation (PNC) in terms of parameters of the Standard Model could be hampered by uncertainties in the atomic and nuclear structure. As a further application of the massively parallel HF calculations, we calculated the proton and neutron densities of the Cesium isotopes from A = 125 to A = 139. Based on our good agreement with experimental charge radii, binding energies, and ground state spins, we conclude that the uncertainties in the ratios of weak charges are less than 10^(-3), comfortably smaller than the anticipated experimental error.

Characterization of diverse megathrust fault behavior related to seismic supercycles, Mentawai Islands, Sumatra

Long paleoseismic histories are necessary for understanding the full range of behavior of faults, as the most destructive events often have recurrence intervals longer than local recorded history. The Sunda megathrust, the interface along which the Australian plate subducts beneath Southeast Asia, provides an ideal natural laboratory for determining a detailed paleoseismic history over many seismic cycles. The outer-arc islands above the seismogenic portion of the megathrust cyclically rise and subside in response to processes on the underlying megathrust, providing uncommonly good illumination of megathrust behavior. Furthermore, the growth histories of coral microatolls, which record tectonic uplift and subsidence via relative sea level, can be used to investigate the detailed coseismic and interseismic deformation patterns. One particularly interesting area is the Mentawai segment of the megathrust, which has been shown to characteristically fail in a series of ruptures over decades, rather than a single end-to-end rupture. This behavior has been termed a seismic “supercycle.” Prior to the current rupture sequence, which began in 2007, the segment previously ruptured during the 14th century, the late 16th to late 17th century, and most recently during historical earthquakes in 1797 and 1833. In this study, we examine each of these previous supercycles in turn.

First, we expand upon previous analysis of the 1797–1833 rupture sequence with a comprehensive review of previously published coral microatoll data and the addition of a significant amount of new data. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two great earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755–1833 and 1950–1997 and models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. We derive magnitudes of Mw 8.7–9.0 for the two historical earthquakes, and determine that the 1797 earthquake fundamentally changed the state of coupling on the fault for decades afterward. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they undoubtedly influence the progression of subsequent ruptures, even beyond their own rupture area. This concept is of vital importance for monitoring and forecasting the progression of the modern rupture sequence.

Turning our attention to the 14th century, we present evidence of a shallow slip event in approximately A.D. 1314, which preceded the “conventional” megathrust rupture sequence. We calculate a suite of slip models, slightly deeper and/or larger than the 2010 Pagai Islands earthquake, that are consistent with the large amount of subsidence recorded at our study site. Sea-level records from older coral microatolls suggest that these events occur at least once every millennium, but likely far less frequently than their great downdip neighbors. The revelation that shallow slip events are important contributors to the seismic cycle of the Mentawai segment further complicates our understanding of this subduction megathrust and our assessment of the region’s exposure to seismic and tsunami hazards.

Finally, we present an outline of the complex intervening rupture sequence that took place in the 16th and 17th centuries, which involved at least five distinct uplift events. We conclude that each of the supercycles had unique features, and all of the types of fault behavior we observe are consistent with highly heterogeneous frictional properties of the megathrust beneath the south-central Mentawai Islands. We conclude that the heterogeneous distribution of asperities produces terminations and overlap zones between fault ruptures, resulting in the seismic “supercycle” phenomenon.

Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies

23 p.

New Physics Models in the Diphoton Final State at CMS

Since the discovery of the Higgs boson at the LHC, its use as a probe to search for beyond the standard model physics, such as supersymmetry, has become important, as seen in a recent search by the CMS experiment using razor variables in the diphoton final state. Motivated by this search, this thesis examines the LHC discovery potential of a SUSY scenario involving bottom squark pair production with a Higgs boson in the final state. We design and implement a software-based trigger using the razor variables for the CMS experiment to record events with a bottom quark-antiquark pair from a Higgs boson. We characterize the full range of signatures at the LHC from this Higgs-aware SUSY scenario and demonstrate the sensitivity of the CMS data to this model.

One-shot parallel complex Fourier-domain optical coherence tomography using a spatial carrier frequency

We propose a novel method of one-shot parallel complex Fourier-domain optical coherence tomography using a spatial carrier frequency for full range imaging. The spatial carrier frequency is introduced into the 2-D spectral interferogram in the lateral direction by using a tilted reference wavefront. This spatial-carrier- contained 2-D spectral interferogram is recorded with one shot of a 2-D CCD camera, and is Fourier-transformed in the lateral direction to obtain a 2-D complex spectral interferogram by a spatial-carrier technique. A full-range tomogram is reconstructed from the 2-D complex spectral interferogram. The principle of this method is confirmed by cross-sectional imaging of a glass slip object. (c) 2008 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Assessment of the impact of aquatic resources research by ICLARM: scope and methodologies

The importance of quantifying the economic returns to investments in aquatic resources research together with the social, environmental and institutional impacts of such investments is widely recognized among ICLARM's donors, trustees and beneficiaries. As with other Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) centers, ICLARM is being asked to provide specific accounts of the outputs of its research and their impact on farms and on fisheries, including their socioeconomic impact. Such impact information has become a necessary, though not sufficient, basis for setting priorities and allocating resources for research for the CGIAR centers. This paper discusses the types and methods of impact assessment relevant to ICLARM's work. A three-pronged assessment approach is envisaged to capture the full range of impacts: 1) ex ante assessment for research priority setting; 2) assessment prior to dissemination or adoption along with monitoring and evaluation; and 3) ex post impact assessment. It also discusses the objectives and scope for operational impact assessment of ICLARM's research.

Growth and shape control of disks by bending and extension

Differential growth of thin elastic bodies furnishes a surprisingly simple explanation of the complex and intriguing shapes of many biological systems, such as plant leaves and organs. Similarly, inelastic strains induced by thermal effects or active materials in layered plates are extensively used to control the curvature of thin engineering structures. Such behaviour inspires us to distinguish and to compare two possible modes of differential growth not normally compared to each other, in order to reveal the full range of out-of-plane shapes of an initially flat disk. The first growth mode, frequently employed by engineers, is characterised by direct bending strains through the thickness, and the second mode, mainly apparent in biological systems, is driven by extensional strains of the middle surface. When each mode is considered separately, it is shown that buckling is common to both modes, leading to bistable shapes: growth from bending strains results in a double-curvature limit at buckling, followed by almost developable deformation in which the Gaussian curvature at buckling is conserved; during extensional growth, out-of-plane distortions occur only when the buckling condition is reached, and the Gaussian curvature continues to increase. When both growth modes are present, it is shown that, generally, larger displacements are obtained under in-plane growth when the disk is relatively thick and growth strains are small, and vice versa. It is also shown that shapes can be mono-, bi-, tri- or neutrally stable, depending on the growth strain levels and the material properties: furthermore, it is shown that certain combinations of growth modes result in a free, or natural, response in which the doubly curved shape of disk exactly matches the imposed strains. Such diverse behaviour, in general, may help to realise more effective actuation schemes for engineering structures. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The rhythm of fountains: The length and time scales of rise height fluctuations at low and high Froude numbers

The magnitude and frequency of vertical fluctuations of the top of an axisymmetric miscible Boussinesq fountain forms the focus of this work. We present measurements of these quantities for saline-aqueous fountains in uniform quiescent surroundings. Our results span source Froude numbers 0.3 ≤ Fr 0 ≤ 40 and, thereby, encompass very weak, weak, intermediate and forced classes of fountain. We identify distinct scalings, based on known quantities at the fountain source, for the frequency of fountain height fluctuations which collapse our data within bands of Fr0. Notably, our scalings reveal that the (dimensionless) frequency takes a constant value within each band. These results highlight characteristic time scales for the fluctuations which we decompose into a single, physically apparent, length scale and velocity scale within each band. Moreover, within one particular band, spanning source Froude numbers towards the lower end of the full range considered, we identify unexpectedly long-period fluctuations indicating a near balance of inertia and (opposing) buoyancy at the source. Our analysis identifies four distinct classes of fluctuation behaviour (four bands of Fr 0) and this classification matches well with existing classifications of fountains based on rise heights. As such, we show that an analysis of the behaviour of the fountain top alone, rather than the entire fountain, provides an alternative approach to classifying fountains. The similarity of classifications based on the two different methods confirms that the boundaries between classes mark tangible changes in the physics of fountains. For high Fr0 we show that the dominant fluctuations occur at the scale of the largest eddies which can be contained within the fountain near its top. Extending this, we develop a Strouhal number, Strtop, based on experimental measures of the fountain top, defined such that Strtop = 1 would suggest the dominant fluctuations are caused by a continual cycle of eddies forming and collapsing at this largest physical scale. For high- Fr 0 fountains we find Strtop ≈ 0. 9. © 2013 Cambridge University Press.

A four-phase confocal elliptical cylinder model for predicting the effective thermal conductivity of coated fibre composites

A four-phase confocal elliptical cylinder model is proposed from which a generalised self-consistent method is developed for predicting the thermal conductivity of coated fibre reinforced composites. The method can account for the influence of the fibre section shape ratio on conductivity, and the physical reasonableness of the model is demonstrated by using the fibre distribution function. An exact solution is obtained for thermal conductivity by applying conformal mapping and Laurent series expansion techniques of the analytic function. The solution to the three-phase confocal elliptical model, which simulates composites with idealised fibre-matrix interfaces, is arrived at as the degenerated case. A comparison with other available micromechanics methods, Hashin and Shtrikman's bounds and experimental data shows that the present method provides convergent and reasonable results for a full range of variations in fibre section shapes and for a complete spectrum of the fibre volume fraction. Numerical results show the dependence of the effective conductivities of composites on the aspect ratio of coated fibres and demonstrate that a coating is effective in enhancing the thermal transport property of a composite. The present solutions are helpful to analysis and design of composites.

First principles based predictions of the toughness of a metal/oxide interface

We describe a first-principles-based strategy to predict the macroscopic toughness of a gamma-Ni(Al)/alpha-Al2O3 interface. Density functional theory calculations are used to ascertain energy changes upon displacing the two materials adjacent to the interface, with relaxation conducted over all atoms located within adjoining rows. Traction/displacernent curves are obtained from derivatives of the energy. Calculations are performed in mode I (opening), mode II (shear) and at a phase angle of 45 degrees. The shear calculations are conducted for displacements along < 110 > and < 112 > of the Ni lattice. A generalized interface potential function is used to characterize the results. Initial fitting to both the shear and normal stress results is required to calibrate the unknowns. Thereafter, consistency is established by using the potential to predict other traction quantities. The potential is incorporated as a traction/displacement function within a cohesive zone model and used to predict the steady-state toughness of the interface. For this purpose, the plasticity of the Ni alloy must be known, including the plasticity length scale. Measurements obtained for a gamma-Ni superalloy are used and the toughness predicted over the full range of mode mixity. Additional results for a range of alloys are used to demonstrate the influences of yield strength and length scale.

First principles based predictions of the toughness of a metal/oxide interface

We describe a first-principles-based strategy to predict the macroscopic toughness of a gamma-Ni(Al)/alpha-Al2O3 interface. Density functional theory calculations are used to ascertain energy changes upon displacing the two materials adjacent to the interface, with relaxation conducted over all atoms located within adjoining rows. Traction/displacernent curves are obtained from derivatives of the energy. Calculations are performed in mode I (opening), mode II (shear) and at a phase angle of 45 degrees. The shear calculations are conducted for displacements along < 110 > and < 112 > of the Ni lattice. A generalized interface potential function is used to characterize the results. Initial fitting to both the shear and normal stress results is required to calibrate the unknowns. Thereafter, consistency is established by using the potential to predict other traction quantities. The potential is incorporated as a traction/displacement function within a cohesive zone model and used to predict the steady-state toughness of the interface. For this purpose, the plasticity of the Ni alloy must be known, including the plasticity length scale. Measurements obtained for a gamma-Ni superalloy are used and the toughness predicted over the full range of mode mixity. Additional results for a range of alloys are used to demonstrate the influences of yield strength and length scale.

Energy and entropy radiated by a black hole embedded in a de Sitter braneworld

We study the Hawking radiation of a (4+n)-dimensional Schwarzschild black hole imbedded in space-time with a positive cosmological constant. The greybody and energy emission rates of scalars, fermions, bosons, and gravitons are calculated in the full range of energy. Valuable information on the dimensions and curvature of space-time is revealed. Furthermore, we investigate the entropy radiated and lost by black holes. We find their ratio near 1 in favor of the Bekenstein's conjecture.

Degradation products formed during UV-irradiation of humic waters

Natural humic lake water and aqueous solutions of humic substances were treated with ultraviolet (UV) radiation (λ = 254 nm). The effects on the dissolved organic carbon content (DOC) and the absorbance at 254 nm (Abs254) and 460 nm (Abs460) were monitored and the identity and concentrations of gas chromatographable organic degradation products were determined. The DOC content and the (Abs254) of the humic solutions decreased continuously with increasing UV-dose. Several aromatic and aliphatic degradation products were identified and roughly quantified The concentrations of aromatic hydroxy carboxylic acids and hydroxy aldehydes increased when relatively low UV-doses were used, but declined following further irradiation. The concentrations of aliphatic dibasic acids increased over the full range of UV-doses

Safe Composition of Web Communication Protocols for Extensible Edge Services

As new multi-party edge services are deployed on the Internet, application-layer protocols with complex communication models and event dependencies are increasingly being specified and adopted. To ensure that such protocols (and compositions thereof with existing protocols) do not result in undesirable behaviors (e.g., livelocks) there needs to be a methodology for the automated checking of the "safety" of these protocols. In this paper, we present ingredients of such a methodology. Specifically, we show how SPIN, a tool from the formal systems verification community, can be used to quickly identify problematic behaviors of application-layer protocols with non-trivial communication models—such as HTTP with the addition of the "100 Continue" mechanism. As a case study, we examine several versions of the specification for the Continue mechanism; our experiments mechanically uncovered multi-version interoperability problems, including some which motivated revisions of HTTP/1.1 and some which persist even with the current version of the protocol. One such problem resembles a classic degradation-of-service attack, but can arise between well-meaning peers. We also discuss how the methods we employ can be used to make explicit the requirements for hardening a protocol's implementation against potentially malicious peers, and for verifying an implementation's interoperability with the full range of allowable peer behaviors.