Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC-AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water-balance-related parameters. Temperature-dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon 'dieback' results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long-term investments are required.

Comparison of D-region Doppler drift winds measured by the SuperDARN Finland HF radar over an annual cycle using the Kiruna VHF meteor radar

The SuperDARN chain of oblique HF radars has provided an opportunity to generate a unique climatology of horizontal winds near the mesopause at a number of high latitude locations, via the Doppler shifted echoes from sources of ionisation in the D-region. Ablating meteor trails form the bulk of these targets, but other phenomena also contribute to the observations. Due to the poor vertical resolution of the radars, care must be taken to reduce possible biases from sporadic-E layers and Polar Mesospheric Summer echoes that can affect the effective altitude of the geophysical parameters being observed. Second, there is strong theoretical and observational evidence to suggest that the radars are picking up echoes from the backward looking direction that will tend to reduce the measured wind strengths. The effect is strongly frequency dependent, resulting in a 20% reduction at 12 MHz and a 50% reduction at 10 MHz. A comparison of the climatologies observed by the Super-DARN Finland radar between September 1999 and September 2000 and that obtained from the adjacent VHF meteor radar located at Kiruna is also presented. The agreement between the two instruments was very good. Extending the analysis to the SuperDARN Iceland East radar indicated that the principles outlined above could be applied successfully to the rest of the SuperDARN network.

On the concept of electrical impedance for an electrolytic cell

The analysis of the electrical impedance of an electrolytic cell in the shape of a slab is performed. We have solved, numerically, the differential equations governing the phenomenon of the redistribution of the ions in the presence of an external electric field, and compared the results with the ones obtained by solving the linear approximation of these equations. The control parameters in our study are the amplitude and the frequency of the applied voltage, assumed a simple harmonic function of the time. We show that for the large amplitudes of the applied voltage, the actual current is no longer harmonic at low frequencies. From this result it follows that the concept of electrical impedance of a cell is a useful quantity only in the case where the linear approximation of the fundamental equations of problem work well.

Proposal of a Transmission Line Model Based on Lumped Elements: An Analytic Solution

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Electroluminescence and electric current response spectroscopy applied to the characterization of polymer light-emitting electrochemical cells

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Application of pi Circuits for Simulation of Corona Effect in Transmission Lines

In this article, it is represented by state variables phase a transmission line which parameters are considered frequency independently and frequency dependent. Based on previous analyses, it is used the reasonable number of p circuits and the number of blocks composed by parallel resistor and inductor for reduction of numerical oscillations. It is analyzed the influence of the increase of the RL parallel blocks in the obtained results. The RL parallel blocks are used for inclusion of the frequency influence in the transmission line longitudinal parameter. It is a simple model that is been used by undergraduate students for simulation of traveling wave phenomena in transmission lines. Considering the model without frequency influence, it is included a representation of the corona effect. Some simulations are carried considering the corona effect and they are compared to the results without this phenomenon.

Non-transposed three-phase line analyses with a single real transformation matrix

In transmission line transient analyses, a single real transformation matrix can obtain exact modes when the analyzed line is transposed. For non-transposed lines, the results are not exact. In this paper, non-symmetrical and non transposed three-phase line samples are analyzed with a single real transformation matrix application (Clarke's matrix). Some interesting characteristics of this matrix application are: single, real, frequency independent, line parameter independent, identical for voltage and current determination. With Clarke's matrix use, mathematical simplifications are obtained and the developed model can be applied directly in programs based on time domain. This model works without convolution procedures to deal with phase-mode transformation. In EMTP programs, Clarke's matrix can be represented by ideal transformers and the frequency dependent line parameters can be represented by modified-circuits. With these representations, the electrical values at any line point can be accessed for phase domain or mode domain using the Clarke matrix or its inverse matrix. For symmetrical and non-transposed lines, the model originates quite small errors. In addition, the application of the proposed model to the non-symmetrical and non-transposed three phase transmission lines is investigated. ©2005 IEEE.

Inclusão do efeito da frequência nas equações de estado de linhas bifásicas: análise no domínio do tempo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Controle de vibração em reatores elétricos através de absorvedores dinâmicos viscoelásticos

Reatores elétricos utilizados em subestações de energia têm funções específicas na operacionalização e manutenção da funcionalidade destas instalações, sendo equipamentos aplicados ao controle de reativos, de correntes de curto circuito e surtos de manobra em sistemas de transmissão de energia elétrica. Detectou-se que alguns reatores em funcionamento apresentaram elevados níveis de vibração estrutural. Dois destes reatores operam na subestação da cidade de Rurópolis, situada a oeste do estado do Pará. Outro problema decorrente do elevado nível de vibração destas estruturas é a geração de pontos quentes no núcleo eletromagnético do reator, podendo gerar bolhas de gases altamente inflamáveis. A existência destes problemas operacionais pode ocasionar ao Sistema de Transmissão do Norte do Brasil interrupções na transmissão de energia elétrica. Isto geraria na região Norte e em outras interligadas (Nordeste, Sudeste e Centro-Oeste) elevados prejuízos sociais e financeiros. A aplicação de ferramentas para a minimização do problema vibro-acústico (redução dos níveis vibração e, por conseguinte, ruído) pode evitar danos estruturais e operacionais que resultem na sua indisponibilidade operativa reduzindo, conseqüentemente, perdas e a necessidade do desenvolvimento de equipamentos de custo elevado com baixos índices de vibração. No intuito de se reduzir tais níveis, propõe-se à aplicação de absorvedores dinâmicos na estrutura externa dos reatores. Uma vez dimensionados em quantidade, posição e parâmetros definidores (massa, rigidez e amortecimento) espera-se criar um sistema, que sintonizado com a freqüência da excitação de natureza eletromagnética, absorverá parte da energia vibratória do reator, minimizando-se, os elevados índices detectados e, por conseqüência, todos os problemas subseqüentes. São indicados compostos viscoelásticos nos absorvedores dinâmicos (com propriedades dinâmicas dependentes tanto da temperatura como da freqüência de trabalho), em virtude de estes materiais aumentarem o campo de ação dos absorvedores, adequando-se à elevada densidade modal verificada nas chaparias metálicas do reator.

Reliable assessment of forearm photoageing by high-frequency ultrasound: a cross-sectional study

High-frequency ultrasound is a non-invasive tool used in skin ageing research to assess dermis thickness and echogenicity. This study evaluated the reliability of a range of high-frequency ultrasound parameters and tested their correlation with age and a validated clinical scale for the assessment of forearm skin photoageing; the difference between two body sites according to environmental exposition patterns was also investigated. Twenty-three volunteers aged 28-82 years were divided into three groups according to forearm photoageing degree. A 20 MHz ultrasound unit was used to obtain cross-sectional images of the skin by two trained investigators on two different sites: the dorsal forearm (chronically photoexposed skin) and the proximal medial arm (non-photoexposed skin). Several echogenicity parameters were studied for each skin compartment: total dermis, upper dermis and lower dermis, and the ratio between upper and lower dermis. The intraclass correlation coefficient (for complete agreement) between investigators was higher for upper and total dermis echogenicity measures compared with the lower dermis. At the non-photoexposed site, the upper and lower dermis parameter ratio was better correlated with age. At the photoexposed area, total dermis parameters demonstrated higher correlations with clinical score. The authors discuss the choice of parameters for forearm photoageing assessment using high-frequency ultrasound.

Electroluminescence and electric current response spectroscopy applied to the characterization of polymer light-emitting electrochemical cells

Frequency-dependent electroluminescence and electric current response spectroscopy were applied to polymeric light-emitting electrochemical cells in order to obtain information about the operation mechanism regimes of such devices. Three clearly distinct frequency regimes could be identified: a dielectric regime at high frequencies; an ionic transport regime, characterized by ionic drift and electronic diffusion; and an electrolytic regime, characterized by electronic injection from the electrodes and electrochemical doping of the conjugated polymer. From the analysis of the results, it was possible to evaluate parameters like the diffusion speed of electronic charge carriers in the active layer and the voltage drop necessary for operation. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4752438]

Parameter estimation for transformer modeling

Large Power transformers, an aging and vulnerable part of our energy infrastructure, are at choke points in the grid and are key to reliability and security. Damage or destruction due to vandalism, misoperation, or other unexpected events is of great concern, given replacement costs upward of $2M and lead time of 12 months. Transient overvoltages can cause great damage and there is much interest in improving computer simulation models to correctly predict and avoid the consequences. EMTP (the Electromagnetic Transients Program) has been developed for computer simulation of power system transients. Component models for most equipment have been developed and benchmarked. Power transformers would appear to be simple. However, due to their nonlinear and frequency-dependent behaviors, they can be one of the most complex system components to model. It is imperative that the applied models be appropriate for the range of frequencies and excitation levels that the system experiences. Thus, transformer modeling is not a mature field and newer improved models must be made available. In this work, improved topologically-correct duality-based models are developed for three-phase autotransformers having five-legged, three-legged, and shell-form cores. The main problem in the implementation of detailed models is the lack of complete and reliable data, as no international standard suggests how to measure and calculate parameters. Therefore, parameter estimation methods are developed here to determine the parameters of a given model in cases where available information is incomplete. The transformer nameplate data is required and relative physical dimensions of the core are estimated. The models include a separate representation of each segment of the core, including hysteresis of the core, λ-i saturation characteristic, capacitive effects, and frequency dependency of winding resistance and core loss. Steady-state excitation, and de-energization and re-energization transients are simulated and compared with an earlier-developed BCTRAN-based model. Black start energization cases are also simulated as a means of model evaluation and compared with actual event records. The simulated results using the model developed here are reasonable and more correct than those of the BCTRAN-based model. Simulation accuracy is dependent on the accuracy of the equipment model and its parameters. This work is significant in that it advances existing parameter estimation methods in cases where the available data and measurements are incomplete. The accuracy of EMTP simulation for power systems including three-phase autotransformers is thus enhanced. Theoretical results obtained from this work provide a sound foundation for development of transformer parameter estimation methods using engineering optimization. In addition, it should be possible to refine which information and measurement data are necessary for complete duality-based transformer models. To further refine and develop the models and transformer parameter estimation methods developed here, iterative full-scale laboratory tests using high-voltage and high-power three-phase transformer would be helpful.

Real-Time Dynamic PGD Calculation of Non-Linear Soil Behavior

El estudio sísmico en los últimos 50 años y el análisis del comportamiento dinámico del suelo revelan que el comportamiento del suelo es altamente no lineal e histéretico incluso para pequeñas deformaciones. El comportamiento no lineal del suelo durante un evento sísmico tiene un papel predominante en el análisis de la respuesta de sitio. Los análisis unidimensionales de la respuesta sísmica del suelo son a menudo realizados utilizando procedimientos lineales equivalentes, que requieren generalmente pocos parámetros conocidos. Los análisis de respuesta de sitio no lineal tienen el potencial para simular con mayor precisión el comportamiento del suelo, pero su aplicación en la práctica se ha visto limitada debido a la selección de parámetros poco documentadas y poco claras, así como una inadecuada documentación de los beneficios del modelado no lineal en relación al modelado lineal equivalente. En el análisis del suelo, el comportamiento del suelo es aproximado como un sólido Kelvin-Voigt con un módulo de corte elástico y amortiguamiento viscoso. En el análisis lineal y no lineal del suelo se están considerando geometrías y modelos reológicos más complejos. El primero está siendo dirigido por considerar parametrizaciones más ricas del comportamiento linealizado y el segundo mediante el uso de multi-modo de los elementos de resorte-amortiguador con un eventual amortiguador fraccional. El uso del cálculo fraccional está motivado en gran parte por el hecho de que se requieren menos parámetros para lograr la aproximación exacta a los datos experimentales. Basándose en el modelo de Kelvin-Voigt, la viscoelasticidad es revisada desde su formulación más estándar a algunas descripciones más avanzada que implica la amortiguación dependiente de la frecuencia (o viscosidad), analizando los efectos de considerar derivados fraccionarios para representar esas contribuciones viscosas. Vamos a demostrar que tal elección se traduce en modelos más ricos que pueden adaptarse a diferentes limitaciones relacionadas con la potencia disipada, amplitud de la respuesta y el ángulo de fase. Por otra parte, el uso de derivados fraccionarios permite acomodar en paralelo, dentro de un análogo de Kelvin-Voigt generalizado, muchos amortiguadores que contribuyen a aumentar la flexibilidad del modelado para la descripción de los resultados experimentales. Obviamente estos modelos ricos implican muchos parámetros, los asociados con el comportamiento y los relacionados con los derivados fraccionarios. El análisis paramétrico de estos modelos requiere técnicas numéricas eficientemente capaces de simular comportamientos complejos. El método de la Descomposición Propia Generalizada (PGD) es el candidato perfecto para la construcción de este tipo de soluciones paramétricas. Podemos calcular off-line la solución paramétrica para el depósito de suelo, para todos los parámetros del modelo, tan pronto como tales soluciones paramétricas están disponibles, el problema puede ser resuelto en tiempo real, porque no se necesita ningún nuevo cálculo, el solucionador sólo necesita particularizar on-line la solución paramétrica calculada off-line, que aliviará significativamente el procedimiento de solución. En el marco de la PGD, parámetros de los materiales y los diferentes poderes de derivación podrían introducirse como extra-coordenadas en el procedimiento de solución. El cálculo fraccional y el nuevo método de reducción modelo llamado Descomposición Propia Generalizada han sido aplicado en esta tesis tanto al análisis lineal como al análisis no lineal de la respuesta del suelo utilizando un método lineal equivalente. ABSTRACT Studies of earthquakes over the last 50 years and the examination of dynamic soil behavior reveal that soil behavior is highly nonlinear and hysteretic even at small strains. Nonlinear behavior of soils during a seismic event has a predominant role in current site response analysis. One-dimensional seismic ground response analysis are often performed using equivalent-linear procedures, which require few, generally well-known parameters. Nonlinear analyses have the potential to more accurately simulate soil behavior, but their implementation in practice has been limited because of poorly documented and unclear parameter selection, as well as inadequate documentation of the benefits of nonlinear modeling relative to equivalent linear modeling. In soil analysis, soil behaviour is approximated as a Kelvin-Voigt solid with a elastic shear modulus and viscous damping. In linear and nonlinear analysis more complex geometries and more complex rheological models are being considered. The first is being addressed by considering richer parametrizations of the linearized behavior and the second by using multi-mode spring-dashpot elements with eventual fractional damping. The use of fractional calculus is motivated in large part by the fact that fewer parameters are required to achieve accurate approximation of experimental data. Based in Kelvin-Voigt model the viscoelastodynamics is revisited from its most standard formulation to some more advanced description involving frequency-dependent damping (or viscosity), analyzing the effects of considering fractional derivatives for representing such viscous contributions. We will prove that such a choice results in richer models that can accommodate different constraints related to the dissipated power, response amplitude and phase angle. Moreover, the use of fractional derivatives allows to accommodate in parallel, within a generalized Kelvin-Voigt analog, many dashpots that contribute to increase the modeling flexibility for describing experimental findings. Obviously these rich models involve many parameters, the ones associated with the behavior and the ones related to the fractional derivatives. The parametric analysis of all these models require efficient numerical techniques able to simulate complex behaviors. The Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD) is the perfect candidate for producing such kind of parametric solutions. We can compute off-line the parametric solution for the soil deposit, for all parameter of the model, as soon as such parametric solutions are available, the problem can be solved in real time because no new calculation is needed, the solver only needs particularize on-line the parametric solution calculated off-line, which will alleviate significantly the solution procedure. Within the PGD framework material parameters and the different derivation powers could be introduced as extra-coordinates in the solution procedure. Fractional calculus and the new model reduction method called Proper Generalized Decomposition has been applied in this thesis to the linear analysis and nonlinear soil response analysis using a equivalent linear method.

High frequency of sex and equal frequencies of mating types in natural populations of the ciliate Tetrahymena thermophila.

In ciliate protists, sex involves the temporary joining of two cells of compatible mating type, followed by meiosis and exchange of gametic nuclei between conjugants. Reproduction is by asexual binary fission following conjugation. For the many ciliates with fixed multiple mating types, frequency-dependent sex-ratio theory predicts equal frequencies of mating types, if sex is common in nature. Here, we report that in natural populations of Tetrahymena thermophila sexually immature cells, indicative of recent conjugation, are found from spring through fall. In addition, the seven mating types occur in approximately equal frequencies, and these frequencies appear to be maintained by interaction between complex, multiple mat alleles and environmental conditions during conjugation. Such genotype-environment interaction determining mating type frequency is rare among ciliates.

Towards a unified understanding of event-related changes in the EEG:the Firefly model of synchronization through cross-frequency phase modulation

Although event-related potentials (ERPs) are widely used to study sensory, perceptual and cognitive processes, it remains unknown whether they are phase-locked signals superimposed upon the ongoing electroencephalogram (EEG) or result from phase-alignment of the EEG. Previous attempts to discriminate between these hypotheses have been unsuccessful but here a new test is presented based on the prediction that ERPs generated by phase-alignment will be associated with event-related changes in frequency whereas evoked-ERPs will not. Using empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which allows measurement of narrow-band changes in the EEG without predefining frequency bands, evidence was found for transient frequency slowing in recognition memory ERPs but not in simulated data derived from the evoked model. Furthermore, the timing of phase-alignment was frequency dependent with the earliest alignment occurring at high frequencies. Based on these findings, the Firefly model was developed, which proposes that both evoked and induced power changes derive from frequency-dependent phase-alignment of the ongoing EEG. Simulated data derived from the Firefly model provided a close match with empirical data and the model was able to account for i) the shape and timing of ERPs at different scalp sites, ii) the event-related desynchronization in alpha and synchronization in theta, and iii) changes in the power density spectrum from the pre-stimulus baseline to the post-stimulus period. The Firefly Model, therefore, provides not only a unifying account of event-related changes in the EEG but also a possible mechanism for cross-frequency information processing.