Pricing Index Options with Stochastic Volatility

The objective of this paper is to investigate the pricing accuracy under stochastic volatility where the volatility follows a square root process. The theoretical prices are compared with market price data (the German DAX index options market) by using two different techniques of parameter estimation, the method of moments and implicit estimation by inversion. Standard Black & Scholes pricing is used as a benchmark. The results indicate that the stochastic volatility model with parameters estimated by inversion using the available prices on the preceding day, is the most accurate pricing method of the three in this study and can be considered satisfactory. However, as the same model with parameters estimated using a rolling window (the method of moments) proved to be inferior to the benchmark, the importance of stable and correct estimation of the parameters is evident.

Pricing credit derivatives

The financial crisis set off by the default of Lehman Brothers in 2008 leading to disastrous consequences for the global economy has focused attention on regulation and pricing issues related to credit derivatives. Credit risk refers to the potential losses that can arise due to the changes in the credit quality of financial instruments. These changes could be due to changes in the ratings, market price (spread) or default on contractual obligations. Credit derivatives are financial instruments designed to mitigate the adverse impact that may arise due to credit risks. However, they also allow the investors to take up purely speculative positions. In this article we provide a succinct introduction to the notions of credit risk, the credit derivatives market and describe some of the important credit derivative products. There are two approaches to pricing credit derivatives, namely the structural and the reduced form or intensity-based models. A crucial aspect of the modelling that we touch upon briefly in this article is the problem of calibration of these models. We hope to convey through this article the challenges that are inherent in credit risk modelling, the elegant mathematics and concepts that underlie some of the models and the importance of understanding the limitations of the models.

El resurgimiento actual del debate sobre los modelos comparados de capitalismo

Resumen: A partir de la crisis financiera y económica internacional, ha caido la visión del mundo unipolar (basada en la interpretación extrema del libre mercado) para dar lugar al retorno de la intervención del Estado en la economía, en un mundo multipolar en donde se da la competencia de modelos nacionales o socio-culturales de capitalismo. Este trabajo analiza los límites que presenta este sistema de capitalismo estado, y lo contrasta con La Economía Social de Mercado como sistema de ordenamiento de la economía. Este es un sistema que requiere la presencia de un marco institucional sólido que la regule y está focalizado en la equidad y la autosuperación de las personas. Se busca así analizar el funcionamiento de estos sistemas en el marco que les dio origen y analizar su efectividad y su crecimiento en el mundo en los últimos años. Finalmente, se emplea el análisis de estas teorías para el caso latinoamericano.

Evaluation of woman fisherfolks involvement in fisheries activities in Kainji Lake basin

The extent of rural women fisherfolks contribution to fisheries was grossly under estimated and certainly under valued. The basis of their involvement in fisheries activities is to make themselves equal partners to men productive and self reliant participants in the process of improving their own and their family living standard and to enable them realize their full potentials. This survey is informed a system of data collection with the aid of questionnaires and analysis. Ninety-six of the questionnaires were administered to women fisher folks in eight fishing communities selected at random. Thirty seven (97) percent of the women fisher folks are between the ages of 25-35 years, 59.4% of them can only read and write in Arabic language and 21.9% only are literature in western education, which is a general characteristic of the rural population in Nigeria. 24.0% of the respondents are in full time fishing activities while 65-5% are fishmongers. They belong to cooperative societies but only 26% indicated to have benefited from loan and credit facilities. 84.4% of the respondents are sustained by the business. The major problems facing women fisherfolks includes poor market price, fish spoilage, high transport cost and lack of access to loan and credit facilities and extension assistance. Solution to these problems will increase their status benefit and development

Valuation of wind energy projects: A real options approach

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O estado empresário: regime jurídico das tradicionais e novas formas de atuação empresarial do estado na economia brasileira

A presente dissertação versa sobre limites para a intervenção do Estado na economia sob a forma empresarial e os controles a ela aplicáveis. Além de abordar o papel do Estado como acionista de sociedades privadas e a compatibilidade dessa forma de intervenção com o ordenamento jurídico brasileiro, promove-se uma releitura da doutrina e jurisprudência sobre as sociedades de economia mista e sobre as empresas públicas. Estuda-se as razões que levam o Estado a intervir na economia de uma maneira geral, seja de forma direta ou indireta, a partir das teorias econômicas normativas e descritivas sobre a intervenção estatal na economia. Discorre-se sobre os fundamentos constitucionais à intervenção do Estado na economia e os possíveis motivos para a criação de empresas estatais e participação minoritária em sociedades privadas, bem como sobre os condicionamentos impostos pelo princípio da livre iniciativa à intervenção do Estado na economia, em especial à luz da jurisprudência dos Tribunais Superiores. Foram abordados, ainda, os princípios da eficiência, da livre concorrência e da proporcionalidade, que também constituem fundamentos e limites gerais à intervenção do Estado na economia, além da necessidade de autorização legal. Além de apresentarmos um breve resumo da discussão histórica sobre a criação das empresas estatais no Brasil e os motivos para a escolha de um ou outro tipo de sociedade estatal, analisa-se o regime jurídico aplicável a essas entidades, à luz dos dispositivos constitucionais e da jurisprudência sobre o tema, incluindo-se o estudo do seu regime de pessoal, de bens, tributário, licitações, contratual, responsabilidade civil e falência. Estudaremos, ainda, as formas de controle incidentes sobre essas entidades. Por fim, a dissertação também abrange o estudo da intervenção do Estado como acionista minoritário em sociedades privadas, abordando os motivos para essa participação societária, bem como a natureza dessa intervenção. Trata-se de empresas controladas pela iniciativa privada, mas que têm algum grau de participação estatal em seu capital. São muitos os motivos que podem levar o Poder Público a participar sem poder de controle em empresas privadas. A participação minoritária pode visar a permitir um maior controle do Estado sobre a empresa participada, ou mesmo a tomada de controle gradual de determinada companhia, mas também pode constituir uma forma de parceria entre a iniciativa estatal e a privada, como forma mais eficiente de fomento de atividades consideradas de interesse público ou de compartilhamento de riscos e custos envolvidos em determinada atividade explorada pelo Poder Público e pela iniciativa privada. Aborda-se a relação das sociedades meramente participadas com a Administração pública, bem como os condicionamentos constitucionais à participação minoritária estatal sem controle em sociedades privadas (proporcionalidade, eficiência, necessidade de autorização legal, realização de procedimento licitatório com vista à escolha do parceiro privado, e controle do Tribunal de Contas da União).

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC), and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC) price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

Observer-reported skate bycatch in the commercial groundfish fisheries of Alaska

We analyzed skate catch data collected by observers in the North Pacific Groundfish Observer Program (NPGOP) from 1998 through 2008 to document recent changes in the identification of skates by observers and to examine the species composition of observed skate catch in Alaska’s groundfish fisheries as well as recent trends in skate retention by commercial fishermen. Historically, almost all skate bycatch has been reported by NPGOP observers as “skate unidentified.” However, since 2004 observers have been trained to identify skates to the genus and species level. In 2008 over 95% of all skates were identified at least to the genus level, and over 50% were identified to species. The most common species of skates identified by observers in groundfish fisheries are Bathyraja parmifera (Alaska skate), Raja binoculata (big skate), and Bathyraja aleutica (Aleutian skate). Species composition of reported skate catch generally reflects recent survey-derived biomass estimates, with B. parmifera dominating the catches in the Bering Sea and, to a lesser extent, in the Aleutian Islands region, and species of the genus Raja dominating catches in the Gulf of Alaska. A relatively high percentage of the skate catch on longline vessels is still reported at the family or genus level because of difficulties in the identification of skates not brought onboard the vessel. For the larger skate species, the proportion retained for processing has increased in recent years as the market price for skate product has increased. Although observed skate catch does not give a complete account of skate bycatch in the fisheries of the region, observer data provide critical information for the appropriate management of skate populations in Alaska.

Species selection for smallholder aquaculture

Systems for selection of species for smallholder aquaculture are presented. These are: food fits; management decisions; and economic criteria. Food fits suggests categorizing pond food resources into a few categories based loosely on the instrinsic traits of food which effect their selectivity by predators. Using management decision techniques, potential polycultures might also be compared with each other and with monoculture. Under economic criteria (and for species known in local markets), one could combine the Ff values of various species under monoculture with their particular market price to get a proper bioeconomic selection index: (marked price x 1/Ff).

Marketing of small indigenous species of fish (SIS) in three selected fish markets of Mymensingh

A socio-economic survey was conducted round the year in three fish markets at Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The selected markets were categorized as rural market (Sutiakhali market), a peri-urban market (Kamal Ranjeet market, BAU) and an urban market (Notun Bazar market, Mymensingh town). It was learnt from the survey that the availability of Small Indigenous Fish Species (SIS) declined to a great extent over the last few years and at presently many of such fish species are either threatened or at the edge of extinction. The supply of SIS was highest in KR market (37% of total) and more or less similar in Notun Bazar and Sutiakhali fish market (25 and 27% respectively). The total supply of SIS fluctuated from 25% to 35% throughout the year in these markets. About 48 SIS were found in the sampled markets over the survey period. The highest number of species (45) was found in KR market followed by Notun Bazar (42) and Sutiakhali (37) fish markets. During the survey, three critically endangered species namely, schilbid catfish, garua catfish and rita were found in these markets. Beside these, other 11 and 10 species were listed to be endangered and vulnerable respectively. The biodiversity of 21 SIS found in three markets were no threat at all. Three species (guntea loach, Indian glass barb and flying barb) were 'data deficient' as reported by the IUCN Red Book (IUCN-Bangladesh 2000). From the supply point of view small prawn, spotted snakehead, stinging catfish, pool barb, striped dwarf catfish, Gangetic mystus, walking catfish and tank goby were the prominent fish. The least available species found in this survey were lesser spiny eel, barred spiny eel, Gangetic ailia, freshwater garfish, zig-zag eel, flying barb, Ganges river sprat, freshwater river shad and dwarf gourami. The weight of SIS available in Notun bazar was highest and nearly double than other two markets. There was no significant difference recorded in the supply of SIS in Sutiakhali and KR markets. The average monthly SIS supply was 185, 192 and 467 kg in KR, Sutiakhali and Notun Bazar, respectively; therefore, the cumulative average supply was 844 kg per month in three markets. The price of SIS ranged widely from taka 50-450/kg depending on species, location of market, time of purchase and the condition of fish. In general small prawn, ticto barb, dwarf gourami, Gangetic leaffish, and Annandale loach were sold at a lower price (ranged taka 50-100/kg) and these species could be considered at the bottom of the market-price list. Other SIS like walking catfish, climbing parch, butter catfish, cotio and schilbid catfish valued as highest price (ranged taka 150-450/kg). There was no specific marketing chain for SIS in Mymensingh region. The components of marketing channels and their expansion varied with seasons and locations. The general pattern, however, was as this - after buying fish from fish farmer/fishermen, middlemen (locally known as Foria) used to buy fish to wholesale market and sell to the wholesalers. The retailers used to buy fish from wholesaler through auction to the highest bidders. The retailers then send the fish to particular market where the fish reached the consumers. The livelihood strategy of SIS retailers in three fish markets showed that socio-economic constraints such as low income, poor educational background, low economic status and lack of capital are the main constrains [sic]. Most of the retailers proposed that government should control the fish price throughout the year, so that the producers can get reasonable and stable price. Construction of cold storage and preservation facilities at market sites, improvement of road and communication, improvement of physical market facilities and reduction of market chain is essential. Credit facilities, improvement of their standard of living, health and sanitary condition, housing condition, children education and access to drinking water facilities were identified as additional aspects to improve socio-economic condition of SIS retailers.

Sustainable livelihood approach of prawn production and marketing systems in Mymensingh, Bangladesh

An investigation was carried out in Phulpur upazila, Mymensingh to examine the current production practices of freshwater giant prawn, Macrobrachium rosenbergii and its marketing systems with sustainable livelihood approach. The livelihoods of a considerable number of rural poor are associated with prawn production in Phulpur upazila. Based on a sample of 50 farmers, about 94% farmers were found to culture prawn with fish in their ponds. Only 4% and 2% farmers were found to culture prawn-fish-dike crops and only prawn respectively. Prawn marketing is almost exclusively a preserve of the private sector where the livelihoods of a large number of people are associated with its distribution and marketing systems. The market chain from producers to consumers passes through a number of intermediaries. About 40% of the produced prawns are exported and the rest 60% are sold to local markets. The price of prawn depends on quality, size and weight. The average farm-gate price of prawn varied from Tk. 110 to 160/kg, whereas it's [sic] market price varied from Tk. 150 to 350/kg. Most of the farmers and traders have improved their socio-economic conditions through prawn farming and marketing activities. However, concerns arise about the long-term sustainability of prawn farming and marketing systems due to lack of technical knowledge of prawn farming, poor road and transport facilities, higher transport cost, poor supply of ice, lack of cash and credit facilities. It is therefore essential to provide institutional and organizational support and credit facilities for sustainable prawn production and marketing systems.

Marketing of value-added products from silver carp and involvement of rural people in the production and marketing chain

Cost-profit analysis and market testing of some value-added products from silver carp such as fish mince block, fish sausage, fish ball, fish stick and fish burger were analyzed during April 2001 to March 2002. The study also explored the possibility to involve rural low-income people in the production and marketing of such products. The production of silver carp was higher in greater Jessore and Mymensingh districts but the price remained low during the peak-harvesting season in October to November. The price varied with size of the fish, season, market characteristics and effective demand of the buyers. Price of about 500 g size fish was found to be Tk. 20-25/kg in the rural markets. The average size of fish in the rural markets was 3S0-550 g while that in the urban markets it was 700-1,200 g. The cost of production of the value added products and profit margin were assessed on the basis of market price of the raw material as well as that of the finished products, transportation, storage and marketing costs. The profit margins of 34%, 39%, 81% and 31% of their sales price were obtained for fish sausage, fish ball, fish stick and fish burger, respectively. Actual production cost could be minimized if the fish is purchased directly from the farmers. Consumer's acceptance and marketability tests showed that both rural and urban people preferred fish ball than fish sausage. However, response towards the taste, flavor and color of fish ball and fish sausage was found to vary with occupations and age of the consumers. A correlation was observed between age group and acceptance of new products. Fish ball, fish stick and fish burger were found to be the most preferable items to the farmers because of easy formulation process with common utensils. Good marketing linkage and requirement of capital had been identified as the prerequisites for operating small-scale business on value-added fish products.

Studies on the suitability of producing value-added products from silver carp, Hypophthalmichthys molitrix

Silver carp, Hypophthalmichthys molitrix is contributing significantly to the total production of fish through aquaculture in Bangladesh. However, its low market price has become a serious concern to the fish farmers. The suitability of silver carp mince for the production of various value-added products (VAPs) - surimi, fish sausage, fish burger and fish stick was studied during April-September 2000 to ensure more appropriate and profitable utilization of silver carp. Surimi/frozen mince block was produced by washing the silver carp mince with 0.1% NaCl for 7-8 min (4-5 min agitation and 3-4 min settling). A two-step heating schedule for incubation at 50°C for 2 h and cooking at 95°C for 30 min gave high textured good quality consumer product. With the addition of cryoprotectants, surimi could be kept frozen for 5 months without loosing [sic] much of its textural and sensory qualities. Mince-mix and a batter with different ingredients and spices were formulated to produce fish burger using potato smash as the binding agent. Fish flake-mix and a batter with different ingredients and spices were formulated to prepare fish stick using both potato starch and potato smash as filler ingredients. Unwashed and washed frozen mince block or fresh flesh of silver carp was used to prepare fish sausage by heating at 100°C for 1 h after incubating at 50°C for 2 h. A spice-mix formulated with various local spices at the rate of 1.0-1.2% gave good texture and flavor to the sausage. A good-appeared sausage-pink color was developed by combining three food-grade colors of asthaxanthin. Products prepared with potato starch, potato smash and rice smash had an acceptable bacterial load in refrigeration (5°C) for up to 8 days and in room temperature (28°C) for up to 3 days. No coliform bacteria were found in the products prepared.

Status and prospects of mackerel and tuna fishery in Bangladesh

Present status and future prospects of mackerel and tuna fisheries in Bangladesh were assessed during July 2003-June 2004. The work concentrated on the fishing gears, length of fishes, total landings and market price of the catch and highlighted the prospects of the fishery in Bangladesh. Four commercially important species of mackerels and tuna viz. Scomberomorus guttatus, Scomberomorus commerson, Rastrelliger kanagurta, and Euthynnus affinis were included in the study. About 95% of mackerels and tuna were caught by drift gill nets and the rest were caught by long lines (4%) and marine set-bag-net (1%). Average monthly total landing of mackerels and tunas was about 264 t, of which 147 t landed in Cox's Bazar and 117 t in Chittagong sites. Total catches of the four species in Cox's Bazar and Chittagong sites were found to be 956 and 762 t, respectively. The poor landing was observed during January-February and the peak landing was in November and July. Gross market value of the annual landing of mackerels and tunas (1,718 t) was found to be 1,392 latch taka. Nevertheless, the mackerel and tuna fisheries in Bangladesh are increasingly contributing to the marine fish production of the country and have very good potential for further expansion for both domestic and export market.

基于拉格朗日松弛的供应链合作生产计划模型研究

为解决供应链生产计划协调问题,通过市场价格和中间库存因素使供应链上下游企业结合成一个整体,建立一种供应链上下游一体化计划模型,从整体考虑供应链合作计划问题.为获取问题的可行解,采用拉格朗日松弛技术进行优化,为供应链上下游企业在信息共享条件下实现"多赢"目标,提供了理论依据.仿真结果验证了模型和算法的有效性。