Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUÇÃO: A malaria é uma doença endêmica na região da Amazônia Brasileira, e a detecção de possíveis fatores de risco pode ser de grande interesse às autoridades em saúde pública. O objetivo deste artigo é investigar a associação entre variáveis ambientais e os registros anuais de malária na região amazônica usando métodos bayesianos espaço-temporais. MÉTODOS: Utilizaram-se modelos de regressão espaço-temporais de Poisson para analisar os dados anuais de contagem de casos de malária entre os anos de 1999 a 2008, considerando a presença de alguns fatores como a taxa de desflorestamento. em uma abordagem bayesiana, as inferências foram obtidas por métodos Monte Carlo em cadeias de Markov (MCMC) que simularam amostras para a distribuição conjunta a posteriori de interesse. A discriminação de diferentes modelos também foi discutida. RESULTADOS: O modelo aqui proposto sugeriu que a taxa de desflorestamento, o número de habitants por km² e o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH) são importantes para a predição de casos de malária. CONCLUSÕES: É possível concluir que o desenvolvimento humano, o crescimento populacional, o desflorestamento e as alterações ecológicas associadas a estes fatores estão associados ao aumento do risco de malária. Pode-se ainda concluir que o uso de modelos de regressão de Poisson que capturam o efeito temporal e espacial em um enfoque bayesiano é uma boa estratégia para modelar dados de contagem de malária.

Rapid Assessment of Seed Removal and Frugivore Activity as a Tool for Monitoring the Health Status of Tropical Forests

Ecological processes in tropical forests are being affected at unprecedented rates by human activities. Yet, the continuity of ecological functions like seed dispersal is crucial for forest regeneration. It thus becomes increasingly urgent to be able to rapidly assess the health status of these processes in order to take appropriate management measures. We tested a method to rapidly evaluate seed removal rates on two animal-dispersed tree species, Virola kwatae and V.michelii (Myristicaceae), at three sites in French Guiana with increasing levels of anthropogenic disturbance. We counted fallen fruits, fruit valves, and seeds of each focal fruiting tree in a single 1m2 quadrat, and calculated two indices: the proportion of seeds removed and the proportion of fruits opened by mammals. They both provide an indirect and rapid assessment of frugivore activity. Our results showed a significant decrease in the proportion of removed seeds (16%) and fruits opened (19%) at the most impacted site in comparison with the other two sites (79% for seeds, 60% and 35% for fruits). This testifies to an increased impoverishment of the primate and toucan communities at the disturbed sites. This standardized protocol provides fast information about the health status of the community of seed dispersers and predators and of their seed removal services. It is time- and cost-effective and is not species-specific, allowing comparisons among sites or over time. We suggest using it with the pantropical Myristicaceae and any other capsule-producing family to rapidly assess the health status of seed removal processes across the tropics.

Real-time Sampling of Particulate Matter Smaller than 2.5 µm from Amazon Forest Biomass Combustion

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

EFFECTS OF IMPLEMENTING EPA'S ENDANGERED SPECIES PROTECTION PROGRAM ON NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM LANDS

In 1986, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) initiated an effort to comply more fully with the Endangered Species Act. This effort became their "Endangered Species Protection Program." The possibility of such a program was forecast in 1982 when Donald A. Spencer gave a presentation to the Tenth Vertebrate Pest Conference on "Vertebrate Pest Management and Changing Times." This paper focuses on current plans for implementing the EPA's Endangered Species Protection Program as it relates to the USDA Forest Service. It analyzes the potential effects this program will have on the agency, using the pocket gopher (Thomomys spp.), strychnine, and the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) as examples of an affected pest, pesticide, and predator.

FOREST ANIMAL DAMAGE CONTROL

As a nation we have gained world recognition for our ability to utilize our resources. In forestry our greatest accomplishments have been in the mechanization of harvest methods and in improvements in forest products. The renewal of this resource has been our greatest neglect. Though the end of the 19th Century marked the beginning of the conservation movement, it was not until a half century later that the force of economics through the demands of a growing population made forest re-establishment more than just a desire. Conservation in itself is a Utopian concept which requires other motivating forces to make it a reality. In the post-war years, and as late as the early 195O's, stocked land in the Pacific Northwest could be purchased for less than the cost of planting; the economic incentive was lacking. Only with sustained yield management and increased land values was there a balance in favor of true values. With greater effort placed on forest regeneration there was an increased need for methods of reducing losses to wildlife. The history of forest wildlife damage research, therefore, parallels that of forest land management; after rather austere beginnings, development became predominantly a response to economics. It was not until 1950 that the full time of one scientist was assigned to this important activity. The development of control methods for forest animal damage is a relatively new area of research. All animal life is dependent upon plants for its existence; forest wildlife is no exception. The removal of seed and foliage of undesirable plants often benefits the land managers; only when the losses or injuries are in conflict with man's interest is there damage involved. Unfortunately, the feeding activities of wildlife and the interests of the land managers are often in conflict. Few realize the breadth, scope, and subtilities associated with forest wildlife damage problems. There are not only numerous species of animals involved, but also a myriad of conditions, each combination possessing unique facets. It is a foregone conclusion that an understanding of the conditions is essential to facilitate a solution to any given problem. Though there are numerous methods of reducing animal damage, all of which have application under some situations, in this discussion emphasis will be placed on the role of chemicals and on western problems. Because of the broadness and complexity of the problem, generalizing is necessary and only brief coverage will be possible. However, an attempt will be made to discuss the use and limitations of various control methods.

Spatial distribution of arboviral mosquito vectors (Diptera, Culicidae) in Vale do Ribeira in the South-eastern Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Mosquitoes are vectors of arboviruses that can cause encephalitis and hemorrhagic fevers in humans. Aedes serratus (Theobald), Aedes scapularis (Rondani) and Psorophora ferox (Von Humboldt) are potential vectors of arboviruses and are abundant in Vale do Ribeira, located in the Atlantic Forest in the southeast of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The objective of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of these mosquitoes and estimate the risk of human exposure to mosquito bites. Results of the analyses show that humans are highly exposed to bites in the municipalities of Cananeia, Iguape and Ilha Comprida. In these localities the incidence of Rocio encephalitis was 2% in the 1970s. Furthermore, Ae. serratus, a recently implicated vector of yellow fever virus in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, should be a target for the entomological surveillance in the southeastern Atlantic Forest. Considering the continental dimensions of Brazil and the inherent difficulties in sampling its vast area, the habitat suitability method used in the study can be an important tool for predicting the distribution of vectors of pathogens.

Natural infection in anopheline species and its implications for autochthonous malaria in the Atlantic forest in Brazil

Abstract Background A descriptive study was carried out in an area of the Atlantic Forest with autochthonous malaria in the Parelheiros subdistrict on the periphery of the municipality of São Paulo to identify anopheline fauna and anophelines naturally infected with Plasmodium as well as to discuss their role in this peculiar epidemiological context. Methods Entomological captures were made from May 2009 to April 2011 using Shannon traps and automatic CDC traps in four areas chosen for their different patterns of human presence and incidences of malaria (anthropic zone 1, anthropic zone 2, transition zone and sylvatic zone). Natural Plasmodium infection was detected by nested PCR based on amplification of the 18S rRNA gene. Results In total, 6,073 anophelines were collected from May 2009 to April 2011, and six species were identified in the four zones. Anopheles cruzii was the predominant species in the three environments but was more abundant in the sylvatic zone. Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii specimens from the anthropic and sylvatic zones were positive for P. vivax and P. malariae. An. (Ker.) bellator, An. (Nys.) triannulatus, An. (Nys.) strodei, An. (Nys.) lutzi and An. (Ano) maculipes were found in small numbers. Of these, An. (Nys.) triannulatus and An. (Nys.) lutzi, which were collected in the anthropic zone, were naturally infected with P. vivax while An. (Nys.) triannulatus from the anthropic zones and An. (Nys.) strodei from the transition zone were positive for P. malariae. Conclusion These results confirm that Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii plays an important role as a major Plasmodium vector. However, the finding of other naturally infected species may indicate that secondary vectors are also involved in the transmission of malaria in the study areas. These findings can be expected to help in the implementation of new measures to control autochthonous malaria in areas of the Atlantic Forest.

Management impacts on Carex assiniboinensis and Cardamine concatenata on the Ottawa National Forest

Monitoring of herbaceous plants on the Ottawa National Forest (ONF) is used to understand the impact of forest management on understory composition and site conditions. In their planning, national forests are required to take into account management impacts on diversity and ecosystem health. The effect of management on understory species is dependent on various factors, including the intensity of disturbance and the biology of the plant. In the first study in this report, a population of Carex assiniboinensis, a Michigan state threatened species, was monitored for seven seasons including before logging commenced, in order to determine the sedge’s response to a single-tree selection harvest. Analyses provided insights for management of C. assiniboinensis at the stand level over the short-term. In the second study in this report, the use of the cutleaf toothwort (Cardamine concatenata) as a Management Indicator Species on the ONF was reviewed. Data were analyzed to determine the suitability of using C. concatenata to monitor impacts of forest management on site conditions. The various factors that affect understory species population dynamics illuminated the challenges of using indicator species to monitor site conditions. Insights from the study provide a greater understanding of management impacts on understory species across the Ottawa National Forest.

Landscape and forest structure at moose mortality sites on Isle Royale National Park. A LiDAR based assessment

Landscape structure and heterogeneity play a potentially important, but little understood role in predator-prey interactions and behaviourally-mediated habitat selection. For example, habitat complexity may either reduce or enhance the efficiency of a predator's efforts to search, track, capture, kill and consume prey. For prey, structural heterogeneity may affect predator detection, avoidance and defense, escape tactics, and the ability to exploit refuges. This study, investigates whether and how vegetation and topographic structure influence the spatial patterns and distribution of moose (Alces alces) mortality due to predation and malnutrition at the local and landscape levels on Isle Royale National Park. 230 locations where wolves (Canis lupus) killed moose during the winters between 2002 and 2010, and 182 moose starvation death sites for the period 1996-2010, were selected from the extensive Isle Royale Wolf-Moose Project carcass database. A variety of LiDAR-derived metrics were generated and used in an algorithm model (Random Forest) to identify, characterize, and classify three-dimensional variables significant to each of the mortality classes. Furthermore, spatial models to predict and assess the likelihood at the landscape scale of moose mortality were developed. This research found that the patterns of moose mortality by predation and malnutrition across the landscape are non-random, have a high degree of spatial variability, and that both mechanisms operate in contexts of comparable physiographic and vegetation structure. Wolf winter hunting locations on Isle Royale are more likely to be a result of its prey habitat selection, although they seem to prioritize the overall areas with higher moose density in the winter. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the distribution of moose mortality by predation is habitat-specific to moose, and not to wolves. In addition, moose sex, age, and health condition also affect mortality site selection, as revealed by subtle differences between sites in vegetation heights, vegetation density, and topography. Vegetation density in particular appears to differentiate mortality locations for distinct classes of moose. The results also emphasize the significance of fine-scale landscape and habitat features when addressing predator-prey interactions. These finer scale findings would be easily missed if analyses were limited to the broader landscape scale alone.

Associations of Forest Type, Parasitism and Body Condition of Two European Passerines, Fringilla coelebs and Sylvia atricapilla

Human-induced forest modification can alter parasite-host interactions and might change the persistence of host populations. We captured individuals of two widespread European passerines (Fringilla coelebs and Sylvia atricapilla) in southwestern Germany to disentangle the associations of forest types and parasitism by haemosporidian parasites on the body condition of birds. We compared parasite prevalence and parasite intensity, fluctuating asymmetries, leukocyte numbers, and the heterophil to lymphocyte ratio (H/L-ratio) among individuals from beech, mixed-deciduous and spruce forest stands. Based on the biology of bird species, we expected to find fewer infected individuals in beech or mixed-deciduous than in spruce forest stands. We found the highest parasite prevalence and intensity in beech forests for F. coelebs. Although, we found the highest prevalence in spruce forests for S. atricapilla, the highest intensity was detected in beech forests, partially supporting our hypothesis. Other body condition or health status metrics, such as the heterophil to lymphocyte ratio (H/L-ratio), revealed only slight differences between bird populations inhabiting the three different forest types, with the highest values in spruce for F. coelebs and in mixed-deciduous forests for S. atricapilla. A comparison of parasitized versus non-parasitized individuals suggests that parasite infection increased the immune response of a bird, which was detectable as high H/L-ratio. Higher infections with blood parasites for S. atricapilla in spruce forest indicate that this forest type might be a less suitable habitat than beech and mixed-deciduous forests, whereas beech forests seem to be a suboptimal habitat regarding parasitism for F. coelebs.

Robust Proximal Femur Segmentation in Conventional X-Ray Images via Random Forest Regression on Multi-resolution Gradient Features

In this paper, we propose a fully automatic, robust approach for segmenting proximal femur in conventional X-ray images. Our method is based on hierarchical landmark detection by random forest regression, where the detection results of 22 global landmarks are used to do the spatial normalization, and the detection results of the 59 local landmarks serve as the image cue for instantiation of a statistical shape model of the proximal femur. To detect landmarks in both levels, we use multi-resolution HoG (Histogram of Oriented Gradients) as features which can achieve better accuracy and robustness. The efficacy of the present method is demonstrated by experiments conducted on 150 clinical x-ray images. It was found that the present method could achieve an average point-to-curve error of 2.0 mm and that the present method was robust to low image contrast, noise and occlusions caused by implants.

Fully Automatic Segmentation of AP Pelvis X-rays via Random Forest Regression and Hierarchical Sparse Shape Composition

Knowledge of landmarks and contours in anteroposterior (AP) pelvis X-rays is invaluable for computer aided diagnosis, hip surgery planning and image-guided interventions. This paper presents a fully automatic and robust approach for landmarking and segmentation of both pelvis and femur in a conventional AP X-ray. Our approach is based on random forest regression and hierarchical sparse shape composition. Experiments conducted on 436 clinical AP pelvis x-rays show that our approach achieves an average point-to-curve error around 1.3 mm for femur and 2.2 mm for pelvis, both with success rates around 98%. Compared to existing methods, our approach exhibits better performance in both the robustness and the accuracy.

Classification of interstitial lung disease patterns using local DCT features and random forest.

Over the last decade, a plethora of computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems have been proposed aiming to improve the accuracy of the physicians in the diagnosis of interstitial lung diseases (ILD). In this study, we propose a scheme for the classification of HRCT image patches with ILD abnormalities as a basic component towards the quantification of the various ILD patterns in the lung. The feature extraction method relies on local spectral analysis using a DCT-based filter bank. After convolving the image with the filter bank, q-quantiles are computed for describing the distribution of local frequencies that characterize image texture. Then, the gray-level histogram values of the original image are added forming the final feature vector. The classification of the already described patches is done by a random forest (RF) classifier. The experimental results prove the superior performance and efficiency of the proposed approach compared against the state-of-the-art.

Fully automatic segmentation of AP pelvis X-rays via random forest regression with efficient feature selection and hierarchical sparse shape composition

In clinical practice, traditional X-ray radiography is widely used, and knowledge of landmarks and contours in anteroposterior (AP) pelvis X-rays is invaluable for computer aided diagnosis, hip surgery planning and image-guided interventions. This paper presents a fully automatic approach for landmark detection and shape segmentation of both pelvis and femur in conventional AP X-ray images. Our approach is based on the framework of landmark detection via Random Forest (RF) regression and shape regularization via hierarchical sparse shape composition. We propose a visual feature FL-HoG (Flexible- Level Histogram of Oriented Gradients) and a feature selection algorithm based on trace radio optimization to improve the robustness and the efficacy of RF-based landmark detection. The landmark detection result is then used in a hierarchical sparse shape composition framework for shape regularization. Finally, the extracted shape contour is fine-tuned by a post-processing step based on low level image features. The experimental results demonstrate that our feature selection algorithm reduces the feature dimension in a factor of 40 and improves both training and test efficiency. Further experiments conducted on 436 clinical AP pelvis X-rays show that our approach achieves an average point-to-curve error around 1.2 mm for femur and 1.9 mm for pelvis.

Impact of the Ebola epidemic on general and HIV care in Macenta, Forest Guinea, 2014.

OBJECTIVE The current Ebola epidemic massively affected the Macenta district in Forest Guinea. We aimed at investigating its impact on general and HIV care at the only HIV care facility in the district. DESIGN Prospective observational single-facility study. METHODS Routinely collected data on use of general hospital services and HIV care were linked to Ebola surveillance data published by the Guinea Ministry of Health. In addition, we compared retention among HIV-infected patients enrolled into care in the first semesters of 2013 and 2014. RESULTS Throughout 2014, service offer was continuous and unaltered at the facility. During the main epidemic period (August-December 2014), compared with the same period of 2013, there were important reductions in attendance at the primary care outpatient clinic (-40%), in HIV tests done (-46%), in new diagnoses of tuberculosis (-53%) and in patients enrolled into HIV care (-47%). There was a smaller reduction in attendance at the HIV follow-up clinic (-11%). Kaplan-Meier estimates of retention were similar among the patients enrolled into care in 2014 and 2013. In a multivariable Cox regression analysis, the year of enrolment was not associated with attrition (hazard ratio 1.02; 95% confidence interval: 0.72-1.43). CONCLUSION The Ebola epidemic resulted in an important decrease in utilization of the facility despite unaltered service offer. Effects on care of HIV-positive patients enrolled prior to the epidemic were limited. HIV care in such circumstances is challenging, but not impossible.