Modelling bird species richness with neural networks for forest landscape management in NE Spain

Para preservar la biodiversidad de los ecosistemas forestales de la Europa mediterránea en escenarios actuales y futuros de cambio global mediante una gestión forestal sostenible es necesario determinar cómo influye el medio ambiente y las propias características de los bosques sobre la biodiversidad que éstos albergan. Con este propósito, se analizó la influencia de diferentes factores ambientales y de estructura y composición del bosque sobre la riqueza de aves forestales a escala 1 × 1 km en Cataluña (NE de España). Se construyeron modelos univariantes y multivariantes de redes neuronales para respectivamente explorar la respuesta individual a las variables y obtener un modelo parsimonioso (ecológicamente interpretable) y preciso. La superficie de bosque (con una fracción de cabida cubierta superior a 5%), la fracción de cabida cubierta media, la temperatura anual y la precipitación estival medias fueron los mejores predictores de la riqueza de aves forestales. La red neuronal multivariante obtenida tuvo una buena capacidad de generalización salvo en las localidades con una mayor riqueza. Además, los bosques con diferentes grados de apertura del dosel arbóreo, más maduros y más diversos en cuanto a su composición de especies arbóreas se asociaron de forma positiva con una mayor riqueza de aves forestales. Finalmente, se proporcionan directrices de gestión para la planificación forestal que permitan promover la diversidad ornítica en esta región de la Europa mediterránea.

Value creation and capital market valuation in the forest product industry

Tämä työ tähtää löytämään mahdollisia poikkeamia metsäteollisuusyritysten markkina-arvoissa ja tunnistaa tekijöitä jotka ovat vaikuttaneet pääomamarkkinoiden odotuksiin yritysten tulevaisuuden suorituskyvystä sekä yrityksen markkina-arvoon. Tämän työn päätavoitteena on kehittää diskontattuihin kassavirtoihin perustuva arvonmääritysmalli jolla mitataan metsäteollisuusyritysten tosiasiallista arvoa yritysten suorituskyvyn ja arvoajureiden perusteella. Lisäksi tavoitteena on löytää selittäviä tekijöitä havaituille eroille yritysten tosiasiallisesten arvojen ja markkinaperusteisten arvojen välisillä. Teoreettisessa osassa esitellään rahoitusteorian pääpiirteet arvonmäärityksen kannalta, aikasempia tutkimuksia sekä metsäteollisuuden toimialakohtaisia tekijöitä. Empiirisessä osassa kehittetään diskontattuihin kassavirtoihin perustuvaa arvonmääritymalli. Otos koostuu 32 suurimmasta Pohjoismaisesta ja Pohjoisamerikkalaisesta metsäteollisuusyrityksestä vuonna 2000. Tutkimuksen aikavälien 1991 -2000. Tulokset tukevat aikaisempia tutkimuksia jonka mukaan kasvuinvestoinnit eivät luo positiivisia odotuksia yrityksen tulevaisuuden kassavirroista. Tarkemmat löydöt ovat, että arvon luominen tutkimusajanjakson aikana ei vaikuttanut yhtä merkittävästi pääomamarkkinoiden odotuksiin yrityksen tulevaisuuden suorituskyvystä kuin mitatut tosiasialliset arvot. Tulokset viittaavat siihen, että metsäteollisuusyritysten markkina- arvot olivat keskimäärin riippuvaisempia itse yrityksestä, kuin sen toiminnasta.

Improved understanding of drought controls on seasonal variation in Mediterranean forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes through combined in situ measurements and ecosystem modelling

Water stress is a defining characteristic of Mediterranean ecosystems, and is likely to become more severe in the coming decades. Simulation models are key tools for making predictions, but our current understanding of how soil moisture controls ecosystem functioning is not sufficient to adequately constrain parameterisations. Canopy-scale flux data from four forest ecosystems with Mediterranean-type climates were used in order to analyse the physiological controls on carbon and water flues through the year. Significant non-stomatal limitations on photosynthesis were detected, along with lesser changes in the conductance-assimilation relationship. New model parameterisations were derived and implemented in two contrasting modelling approaches. The effectiveness of two models, one a dynamic global vegetation model ('ORCHIDEE'), and the other a forest growth model particularly developed for Mediterranean simulations ('GOTILWA+'), was assessed and modelled canopy responses to seasonal changes in soil moisture were analysed in comparison with in situ flux measurements. In contrast to commonly held assumptions, we find that changing the ratio of conductance to assimilation under natural, seasonally-developing, soil moisture stress is not sufficient to reproduce forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes. However, accurate predictions of both CO2 and water fluxes under all soil moisture levels encountered in the field are obtained if photosynthetic capacity is assumed to vary with soil moisture. This new parameterisation has important consequences for simulated responses of carbon and water fluxes to seasonal soil moisture stress, and should greatly improve our ability to anticipate future impacts of climate changes on the functioning of ecosystems in Mediterranean-type climates.

Response of fine root respiration to variations in biotic and abiotic factors in a mixed Mediterranean forest affected by drought-induced secondary succession

Understanding the factors controlling fine root respiration (FRR) at different temporal scales will help to improve our knowledge about the spatial and temporal variability of soil respiration (SR) and to improve future predictions of CO2 effluxes to the atmosphere. Here we present a comparative study of how FRR respond to variability in soil temperature and moisture in two widely spread species, Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Holm-oaks (HO; Quercus ilex L.). Those two species show contrasting water use strategies during the extreme summer-drought conditions that characterize the Mediterranean climate. The study was carried out on a mixed Mediterranean forest where Scots pines affected by drought induced die-back are slowly being replaced by the more drought resistant HO. FRR was measured in spring and early fall 2013 in excised roots freshly removed from the soil and collected under HO and under Scots pines at three different health stages: dead (D), defoliated (DP) and non-defoliated (NDP). Variations in soil temperature, soil water content and daily mean assimilation per tree were also recorded to evaluate FRR sensibility to abiotic and biotic environmental variations. Our results show that values of FRR were substantially lower under HO (1.26 ± 0.16 microgram CO2 /groot·min) than under living pines (1.89 ± 0.19 microgram CO2 /groot·min) which disagrees with the similar rates of soil respiration previously observed under both canopies and suggest that FRR contribution to total SR varies under different tree species. The similarity of FRR rates under HO and DP furthermore confirms other previous studies suggesting a recent Holm-oak root colonization of the gaps under dead trees. A linear mixed effect model approach indicated that seasonal variations in FRR were best explained by soil temperature (p<0.05) while soil moisture was not exerting any direct control over FRR, despite the low soil moisture values during the summer sampling. Plant assimilation rates were positively related to FRR explaining part of the observed variability (p<0.01). However the positive relations of FRR with plant assimilation occurred mainly during spring, when both soil moisture and plant assimilation rates were higher. Our results finally suggest that plants might be able to maintain relatively high rates of FRR during the sub-optimal abiotic and biotic summer conditions probably thanks to their capacity to re-mobilize carbon reserves and their capacity to passively move water from moister layers to upper layers with lower water potentials (where the FR were collected) by hydraulic lift.

Stratification of regional sampling by model-predicted changes of carbon stocks in Forested mineral soils

Selective papers of the workshop on "Development of models and forest soil surveys for monitoring of soil carbon", Koli, Finland, April 5-9 2006.

Automated, adaptive methods for forest inventory

Forest inventories are used to estimate forest characteristics and the condition of forest for many different applications: operational tree logging for forest industry, forest health state estimation, carbon balance estimation, land-cover and land use analysis in order to avoid forest degradation etc. Recent inventory methods are strongly based on remote sensing data combined with field sample measurements, which are used to define estimates covering the whole area of interest. Remote sensing data from satellites, aerial photographs or aerial laser scannings are used, depending on the scale of inventory. To be applicable in operational use, forest inventory methods need to be easily adjusted to local conditions of the study area at hand. All the data handling and parameter tuning should be objective and automated as much as possible. The methods also need to be robust when applied to different forest types. Since there generally are no extensive direct physical models connecting the remote sensing data from different sources to the forest parameters that are estimated, mathematical estimation models are of "black-box" type, connecting the independent auxiliary data to dependent response data with linear or nonlinear arbitrary models. To avoid redundant complexity and over-fitting of the model, which is based on up to hundreds of possibly collinear variables extracted from the auxiliary data, variable selection is needed. To connect the auxiliary data to the inventory parameters that are estimated, field work must be performed. In larger study areas with dense forests, field work is expensive, and should therefore be minimized. To get cost-efficient inventories, field work could partly be replaced with information from formerly measured sites, databases. The work in this thesis is devoted to the development of automated, adaptive computation methods for aerial forest inventory. The mathematical model parameter definition steps are automated, and the cost-efficiency is improved by setting up a procedure that utilizes databases in the estimation of new area characteristics.

DYNAMICS AND PREDICTION OF DIAMETRIC STRUCTURE IN TWO ATLANTIC FOREST FRAGMENTS IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL

ABSTRACT Monitoring analyses aim to understand the processes that drive changes in forest structure and, along with prediction studies, may assist in the management planning and conservation of forest remnants. The objective of this study was to analyze the forest dynamics in two Atlantic rainforest fragments in Pernambuco, Brazil, and to predict their future forest diameter structure using the Markov chain model. We used continuous forest inventory data from three surveys in two forest fragments of 87 ha (F1) and 388 ha (F2). We calculated the annual rates of mortality and recruitment, the mean annual increment, and the basal area for each of the 3-year periods. Data from the first and second surveys were used to project the third inventory measurements, which were compared to the observed values in the permanent plots using chi-squared tests (a = 0.05). In F1, a decrease in the number of individuals was observed due to mortality rates being higher than recruitment rates; however, there was an increase in the basal area. In this fragment, the fit to the Markov model was adequate. In F2, there was an increase in both the basal area and the number of individuals during the 6-year period due to the recruitment rate exceeding the mortality rate. For this fragment, the fit of the model was unacceptable. Hence, for the studied fragments, the demographic rates influenced the stem density more than the floristic composition. Yet, even with these intense dynamics, both fragments showed active growth.

CLASSIFICATION OF FOREST ROADS AND DETERMINATION OF ROUTE USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM

ABSTRACT Geographic Information System (GIS) is an indispensable software tool in forest planning. In forestry transportation, GIS can manage the data on the road network and solve some problems in transportation, such as route planning. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the pattern of the road network and define transport routes using GIS technology. The present research was conducted in a forestry company in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The criteria used to classify the pattern of forest roads were horizontal and vertical geometry, and pavement type. In order to determine transport routes, a data Analysis Model Network was created in ArcGIS using an Extension Network Analyst, allowing finding a route shorter in distance and faster. The results showed a predominance of horizontal geometry classes average (3) and bad (4), indicating presence of winding roads. In the case of vertical geometry criterion, the class of highly mountainous relief (4) possessed the greatest extent of roads. Regarding the type of pavement, the occurrence of secondary coating was higher (75%), followed by primary coating (20%) and asphalt pavement (5%). The best route was the one that allowed the transport vehicle travel in a higher specific speed as a function of road pattern found in the study.

Diversification benefits for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor: Real Estate Investment Trusts in the USA

This thesis examined both domestic and international forest investment options for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor. The focus was on forest-based investment instruments. The influence of movements of currency exchange rates on foreign returns were also taken into account. Annual data from 1995 to 2011 was used. The main portfolio optimization model in this study was the Mean-Variance model but the results were also validated by using the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall models. In addition, the exchange rate risk hedging was established by using one-week-maturity forward contracts. The results suggested that 75 % of the total wealth should be invested in Finnish private forests and the rest, 25 %, to a US REIT, in this case Rayonier. With hedging, the total return on the portfolio was 7.21 % (NIPF 5.3%) with the volatility of 6.63 % (NIPF 7.9%). Taxation supported US investments in this case. As a conclusion, a Finnish private forest investor may, as evidenced, benefit in diversifying a portfolio using REITs in the US.

Comparison of model-based above ground biomass predictions from LiDAR

In order to reduce greenhouse emissions from forest degradation and deforestation the international programme REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) was established in 2005 by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This programme is aimed to financially reward to developing countries for any emissions reductions. Under this programm the project of setting up the payment system in Nepal was established. This project is aimed to engage local communities in forest monitoring. The major objective of this thesis is to compare and verify data obtained from di erect sources - remotely sensed data, namely LiDAR and field sample measurements made by two groups of researchers using two regression models - Sparse Bayesian Regression and Bayesian Regression with Orthogonal Variables.

Seed predation of Virola bicuhyba (Schott) Warb. (Myristicaceae) in the Atlantic forest of south-eastern Brazil

Seed predation of Virola bicuhyba (Myristicaceae) was studied in an area of Atlantic forest in south-eastern Brazil, with the objective of testing the Janzen-Connell model. The predation of seeds was evaluated at three different distances from the parent tree for two classes of predators: invertebrates and vertebrates. The method of exclosure plots (closed plots) and open control plots was used, distributed at 5, 15 and 25 m from the trunk of each adult fruiting tree of V. bicuhyba. In Experiment 1, 1,200 seeds were used and, in Experiment 2, 1,440 seeds. Both experiments did not agree with Janzen-Connell model, as seed predation by invertebrates and vertebrates was independent of the distance from the parent tree. Seed predation rate was high, however the impact of predation by vertebrates was higher than by invertebrates, indicating that it is the main cause of seed mortality.

Container logistic innovations in forest-energy sector: Markets, future service concepts and technical improvements

The report presents the results of the commercialization project called the Container logistic services for forest bioenergy. The project promotes new business that is emerging around overall container logistic services in the bioenergy sector. The results assess the European markets of the container logistics for biomass, enablers for new business creation and required service bundles for the concept. We also demonstrate the customer value of the container logistic services for different market segments. The concept analysis is based on concept mapping, quality function deployment process (QFD) and business network analysis. The business network analysis assesses key shareholders and their mutual connections. The performance of the roadside chipping chain is analysed by the logistic cost simulation, RFID system demonstration and freezing tests. The EU has set the renewable energy target to 20 % in 2020 of which Biomass could account for two-thirds. In the Europe, the production of wood fuels was 132.9 million solid-m3 in 2012 and production of wood chips and particles was 69.0 million solidm3. The wood-based chips and particle flows are suitable for container transportation providing market of 180.6 million loose- m3 which mean 4.5 million container loads per year. The intermodal logistics of trucks and trains are promising for the composite containers because the biomass does not freeze onto the inner surfaces in the unloading situations. The overall service concept includes several packages: container rental, container maintenance, terminal services, RFID-tracking service, and simulation and ERP-integration service. The container rental and maintenance would provide transportation entrepreneurs a way to increase the capacity without high investment costs. The RFID-concept would lead to better work planning improving profitability throughout the logistic chain and simulation supports fuel supply optimization.

Belt conveyor energy efficiency analysis and energy model development

An energy model of a belt conveyor was designed. Operation of a belt conveyor was researched. Operational indexes were calculated. Energy optimization process and recommendations were presented.

Forest inventory information needs in Northwest Russia

This thesis applies the customer value hierarchy model to forestry in order to determine strategic options to enhance the value of LiDAR technology in Russian forestry. The study is conducted as a qualitative case study with semi-structured interviews as a main source of the primary data. The customer value hierarchy model constitutes a theoretical base for the research. Secondary data incorporates information on forest resource management, LiDAR technology and Russian forestry. The model is operationalised using forestry literature and forms a basis for analyses of primary data. Analyses of primary data coupled with comprehension of Russian forest inventory system and knowledge on global forest inventory have led to conclusions on the forest inventory methods selection criteria and the organizations that would benefit the most from LiDAR technology use. The thesis recommends strategic options for LiDAR technology’s value enhancement in Russian forestry.

Forest inventory information needs in Northwest Russia

This research report applies the customer value hierarchy model to forestry in order to determine strategic options to enhance the value of LiDAR technology in Russian forestry. The study is conducted as a qualitative case study with semi-structured interviews as a main source of the primary data. The customer value hierarchy model constitutes a theoretical base for the research. Secondary data incorporates information on forest resource management, LiDAR technology and Russian forestry. The model is operationalised using forestry literature and forms a basis for analyses of primary data. Analyses of primary data coupled with comprehension of Russian forest inventory system and knowledge on global forest inventory have led to conclusions on the forest inventory methods selection criteria and the organizations that would benefit the most from LiDAR technology use. The report recommends strategic options for LiDAR technology’s value enhancement in Russian forestry. This work has been conducted as a part of the project ‘Finnish-Russian Forest Academy 2 - Exploiting and Piloting’, which has been supported financially by the South-East Finland- Russia ENPI CBC 2007-2014 Programme.