972 resultados para Forecast densities


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Within an isospin- and momentum-dependent hadronic transport model, it is shown that the recent FOPI data on the pi(-)/pi(+) ratio in central heavy-ion collisions at SIS/GSI energies [Willy Reisdorf , Nucl. Phys. A 781, 459 (2007)] provide circumstantial evidence suggesting a rather soft nuclear symmetry energy E-sym(rho) at rho >= 2 rho(0) compared to the Akmal-Pandharipande-Ravenhall prediction. Some astrophysical implications and the need for further experimental confirmations are discussed.

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Using a transport model coupled with a phase-space coalescence afterburner, we study the triton-He-3 (t-He-3) ratio with both relative and differential transverse flows in semicentral Sn-132 + Sn-124 reactions at a beam energy of 400 MeV/nucleon. The neutron-proton ratios with relative and differential flows are also discussed as a reference. We find that similar to the neutron-proton pairs, the t-He-3 pairs also carry interesting information regarding the density dependence of the nuclear symmetry energy. Moreover, the nuclear symmetry energy affects more strongly the t-He-3 relative and differential flows than the pi(-)/pi(+) ratio in the same reaction. The t-He-3 relative flow can be used as a particularly powerful probe of the high-density behavior of the nuclear symmetry energy.

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In the framework of an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model, for the central Au-197 + Au-197 reaction at an incident beam energy of 400 MeV/nucleon, the effect of nuclear symmetry potential at supra-saturation densities on the preequilibrium clusters emission is studied. It is found that for the positive symmetry potential at supra-saturation densities the neutron-to-proton ratio of lighter clusters with mass number A less than or similar to 3 [(n/p)(A less than or similar to 3)] is larger than that of the heavier clusters with mass number A > 3 [(n/p)(A>3)], whereas for the negative symmetry potential at supra-saturation densities the (n/p)(A less than or similar to 3) is smaller than the (n/p)(A>3). This may be considered as a probe of the negative symmetry potential at supra-saturation densities.

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Within the framework of the improved isospin dependent quantum molecular dynamics (ImIQMD) model, the emission of pion in heavy-ion collisions in the region 1 A GeV as a probe of nuclear symmetry energy at supra-saturation densities is investigated systematically, in which the pion is considered to be mainly produced by the decay of resonances Delta(1232) and N*(1440). The pi(-)/pi(+) yields are calculated for selected Skyrme parameters SkP, SLy6, Ska and SIII, and also for the cases of different stiffness of symmetry energy with the parameter SLy6. Preliminary results compared with the measured data by the FOPI collaboration favor a hard symmetry energy of the potential term proportional to (rho/rho(0))(gamma s) with gamma(s) = 2.

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National Key Basic Research and Development Program of China [2006CB701305]; State Key Laboratory of Resource and Environment Information System [088RA400SA]; Chinese Academy of Sciences

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Neutral winds and electric fields in the ionospheric F layer play important roles in the variations of the ionosphere, and also affect the thermospheric circulation via the close coupling between the ionosphere and the thermosphere. By now, the neutral winds and electric drifts are generally observed with ground-based Fabry-Perot interferometers (FPI) and incoherent scatter radars (ISR), rockets, and satellite-borne instrument. Based on the servo theory, the ionospheric equivalent winds, which include the information of both the neutral winds and electric fields, can be derived from these characteristic parameters observed by ionosondes. This indirect derivation has potential values in climatological researches and space weather forecast. With the data set of the incoherent scatter radar observations at Millstone Hill, USA, from 1976 to 2006, we statistically analyzed the climatological variations of the vertical component of the equivalent winds (VEWs) over Millstone Hill, which are derived from the ionospheric key parameters (the peak electron number density and peak height of the F2 layer, NmF2 and hmF2) on the basis of the servo theory, Liu's method, and measurements from the ion line-of-sight velocity as well. The main results of this analysis are summarized as follows: (1) The values of VEWs over Millstone Hill during nighttime are stronger than in the daytime, and the upward drift dominates most of the day. In 1993, Hagan found that the component of the neutral winds in the magnetic meridion in daytime is weaker than during nighttime under both solar maximum and minimum conditions; he also found that the equatorward winds dominate most of the day. Both results suggest that the thermosphere in Millstone Hill is modulated by the aurorally driven high-latitude circulation cell; that is, during geomagnetic quiet periods, the average auroral activity is strong enough to drive thermospheric circulation equatorward for most of the day at Millstone Hill. Moreover, since ion drag is the strongest during daytime when F region densities are enhanced by photoionization, the wind speeds are smaller during the daytime than in the nighttime. (2) There is equinoctial symmetry in VEWs at Millstone Hill. The amplitudes and phases of VEWs in spring are quite similar to those in autumn. In contrast, the nighttime upward drift in winter is weaker than in summer and the difference becomes more significant with increasing solar activity. This solstice asymmetry indicates that, the aurorally driven circulation in the northern hemisphere at Millstone Hill latitude is weaker in winter due to arctic darkness, because the subsolar point is in the southern hemisphere. (3) The comparison of the VEWs derived from three methods, i.e., the servo theory, Liu's method, and the ISR ion line-of-sight velocity measurements, indicates that the amplitudes and main phase tendencies of these VEWs accord well with each other during nighttime hours. However, the case in the daytime is relatively worse. This daytime discrepancy can be explained in terms of the effects of photochemical processes and the choices of the servo constants. A larger servo constant gives a stronger plasma drift in daytime. Therefore, this study tells how important to choose a suitable constant for deriving VEWs at Millstone Hill.

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The combinatorial model of nuclear level densities has now reached a level of accuracy comparable to that of the best global analytical expressions without suffering from the limits imposed by the statistical hypothesis on which the latter expressions rely. In particular, it provides, naturally, non-Gaussian spin distribution as well as non-equipartition of parities which are known to have an impact on cross section predictions at low energies [1, 2, 3]. Our previous global models developed in Refs. [1, 2] suffered from deficiencies, in particular in the way the collective effects - both vibrational and rotational - were treated. We have recently improved this treatment using simultaneously the single-particle levels and collective properties predicted by a newly derived Gogny interaction [4], therefore enabling a microscopic description of energy-dependent shell, pairing and deformation effects. In addition for deformed nuclei, the transition to sphericity is coherently taken into account on the basis of a temperature-dependent Hartree-Fock calculation which provides at each temperature the structure properties needed to build the level densities. This new method is described and shown to give promising results with respect to available experimental data.

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We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

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We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policy makers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward-looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances. © 2010 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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© 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd & London Mathematical Society.This is a detailed analysis of invariant measures for one-dimensional dynamical systems with random switching. In particular, we prove the smoothness of the invariant densities away from critical points and describe the asymptotics of the invariant densities at critical points.