874 resultados para Forecast demand


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Knowledge about customers is vital for supply chains in order to ensure customer satisfaction. In an ideal supply chain environment, supply chain partners are able to perform planning tasks collaboratively, because they share information. However, customers are not always able or willing to share information with their suppliers. End consumers, on the one hand, do not usually provide a retail company with demand information. On the other hand, industrial customers might consciously hide information. Wherever a supply chain is not provided with demand forecast information, it needs to derive these demand forecasts by other means. Customer Relationship Management provides a set of tools to overcome informational uncertainty. We show how CRM and SCM information can be integrated on the conceptual as well as technical levels in order to provide supply chain managers with relevant information.

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Emergency health is a critical component of health systems; one increasingly congested from growing demand and blocked access to care. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) study aimed to identify the factors driving increased demand for emergency healthcare. This study examined data on patients treated by the ambulance service and Emergency Departments across Queensland. Data was derived from the Queensland Ambulance Service’s (QAS) Ambulance Information Management System and electronic Ambulance Report Form and from the Emergency Department Information System (EDIS). Data was obtained for the period 2001-02 through to 2009-10. A snapshot of users for the 2009-10 year was used to describe the characteristics of users and comparisons made with the year 2003-04 to identify trends. Per capita demand for EDs has increased by 2% per annum over the decade and for ambulance by 3.7% per annum. The growth in ED demand is most significant in more urgent triage categories with decline in less urgent patients. The growth is most prominent amongst patients suffering injuries and poisoning, amongst both men and women and across all age groups. Patients from lower socioeconomic areas appear to have higher utilisation rates and the utilisation rate for indigenous people exceeds those of other backgrounds. The utilisation rates for immigrant people is less than Australian born however it has not been possible to eliminate the confounding impact of age and socioeconomic profiles. These findings contribute to an understanding of the growth in demand for emergency health. It is evident that the growth is amongst patients in genuine need of emergency healthcare and public rhetoric that congested emergency health services is due to inappropriate attendees is unsustainable. The growth in demand over the last decade reflects not only on changing demographics of the Australian population but also changes in health status, standards of acute health care and other social factors.

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This study examined the effects of role demand on both work–family conflict and family–work conflict, and the moderating effects of role salience and support on these relationships. Based on 391 dual-career (managerial and blue-collar employees) couples from a Taiwanese company in China, the results of this survey study showed clear gender differences in the patterns of relationships observed. For men, the most important demands that negatively impacted on work–family conflict were frequency of overtime and frequency of socializing for work purposes (yingchou), and supervisory support buffered the negative impact of frequent overtime. For women however, strong supervisory support and low work role salience were more important for reducing work–family conflict, and there was no significant main effect found for any of the role demand factors. Furthermore, women with high work role salience were more likely to feel the impact of yingchou on work–family conflict. In the family domain, the most influential demand for men was hours spent on household tasks, but for women, it was the frequency of family-related leave. Interestingly, males reported higher family role salience than females and spouse support intensified rather than buffered the positive impact of hours spent on household tasks on family–work conflict for males.

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The aims of this project is to develop demand side response model which assists electricity consumers who are exposed to the market price through aggregator to manage the air-conditioning peak electricity demand. The main contribution of this research is to show how consumers can optimise the energy cost caused by the air-conditioning load considering the electricity market price and network overload. The model is tested with selected characteristics of the room, Queensland electricity market data from Australian Energy Market Operator and data from the Bureau of Statistics on temperatures in Brisbane, during weekdays on hot days from 2011 - 2012.

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Under the concept of Total Quality Control, based on their experience, the authors discussed potential demand for quality of immunization services and possible solutions to these demands. Abstract in Chinese 全面质量管理(total quality control,TQC)是在20世纪60年代由美国人V,Feigonbaum和J.unan先后提出的新的质量管理观念,众所周知的ISO9000族标准即建立在TQC理念下的质量管理标准,该标准已成为当今世界全球一致、最具权威的质量管理和质量保证的国际规则[1-2].21世纪是质量世纪,推行TQC,不断改进产品和服务质量,目前已成为我国各行各业在不断激烈的市场竞争下完善自我、保证生存和发展的重要手段.实施预防接种是预防和控制传染病,保护人群健康的重要措施,预防接种工作中,产品即预防接种服务,需方(顾客)为接受预防接种服务的广大人群,是产品的消费者.随社会的迅速发展,人们对健康需求的不断提高,对预防接种工作也提出了更高的质量要求.本文对TQC模式下顾客对预防接种服务的质量要求进行了综合分析,并对如何改进服务质量进行了初步探讨.

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This paper investigates how best to forecast optimal portfolio weights in the context of a volatility timing strategy. It measures the economic value of a number of methods for forming optimal portfolios on the basis of realized volatility. These include the traditional econometric approach of forming portfolios from forecasts of the covariance matrix, and a novel method, where a time series of optimal portfolio weights are constructed from observed realized volatility and directly forecast. The approach proposed here of directly forecasting portfolio weights shows a great deal of merit. Resulting portfolios are of equivalent economic benefit to a number of competing approaches and are more stable across time. These findings have obvious implications for the manner in which volatility timing is undertaken in a portfolio allocation context.

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More evenly spread demand for public transport throughout a day can reduce transit service provider‟s total asset and labour costs. A plausible peak spreading strategy is to increase peak fare and/or to reduce off-peak fare. This paper reviews relevant empirical studies for urban rail systems, as rail transit plays a key role in Australian urban passenger transport and experiences severe peak loading variability. The literature is categorised into four groups: a) passenger opinions on willingness to change time for travel, b) valuations of displacement time using stated preference technique, c) simulations of peak spreading based on trip scheduling models, and: d) real-world cases of peak spreading using differential fare. Policy prescription is advised to take into account impacts of traveller‟s time flexibility and joint effects of mode shifting and peak spreading. Although focusing on urban rail, arguments in this paper are relevant to public transport in general with values to researchers and practitioners.

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Executive Summary Emergency health is a critical component of Australia’s health system and emergency departments (EDs) are increasingly congested from growing demand and blocked access to inpatient beds. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) study aims to identify the factors driving increased demand for emergency health and to evaluate strategies which may safely reduce the future demand growth. This monograph addresses the perspectives of users of both ambulance services and EDs. The research reported here aimed to identify the perspectives of users of emergency health services, both ambulance services and public hospital Emergency Departments and to identify the factors that they took into consideration when exercising their choice of location for acute health care. A cross-sectional survey design was used involving a survey of patients or their carers presenting to the EDs of a stratified sample of eight hospitals. A specific purpose questionnaire was developed based on a novel theoretical model which had been derived from analysis of the literature (Monograph 1). Two survey versions were developed: one for adult patients (self-complete); and one for children (to be completed by parents/guardians). The questionnaires measured perceptions of social support, health status, illness severity, self-efficacy; beliefs and attitudes towards ED and ambulance services; reasons for using these services, and actions taken prior to the service request. The survey was conducted at a stratified sample of eight hospitals representing major cities (four), inner regional (two) and outer regional and remote (two). Due to practical limitations, data were collected for ambulance and ED users within hospital EDs, while patients were waiting for or under treatment. A sample size quota was determined for each ED based on their 2009/10 presentation volumes. The data collection was conducted by four members of the research team and a group of eight interviewers between March and May 2011 (corresponding to autumn season). Of the total of 1608 patients in all eight emergency departments the interviewers were able to approach 1361 (85%) patients and seek their consent to participate in the study. In total, 911 valid surveys were available for analysis (response rate= 67%). These studies demonstrate that patients elected to attend hospital EDs in a considered fashion after weighing up alternatives and there is no evidence of deliberate or ill-informed misuse. • Patients attending ED have high levels of social support and self-efficacy that speak to the considered and purposeful nature of the exercise of choice. • About one third of patients have new conditions while two thirds have chronic illnesses • More than half the attendees (53.1%) had consulted a healthcare professional prior to making the decision. • The decision to seek urgent care at an ED was mostly constructed around the patient’s perception of the urgency and severity of their illness, reinforced by a strong perception that the hospital ED was the correct location for them (better specialised staff, better care for my condition, other options not as suitable). • 33% of the respondent held private hospital insurance but nevertheless attended a public hospital ED. Similarly patients exercised considered and rational judgements in their choice to seek help from the ambulance service. • The decision to call for ambulance assistance was based on a strong perception about the severity of the illness (too severe to use other means of transport) and that other options were not considered appropriate. • The decision also appeared influenced by a perception that the ambulance provided appropriate access to the ED which was considered most appropriate for their particular condition (too severe to go elsewhere, all facilities in one spot, better specialised and better care). • In 43.8% of cases a health care professional advised use of the ambulance. • Only a small number of people perceived that ambulance should be freely available regardless of severity or appropriateness. These findings confirm a growing understanding that the choice of professional emergency health care services is not made lightly but rather made by reasonable people exercising a judgement which is influenced by public awareness of the risks of acute health and which is most often informed by health professionals. It is also made on the basis of a rational weighing up of alternatives and a deliberate and considered choice to seek assistance from a service which the patient perceived was most appropriate to their needs at that time. These findings add weight to dispensing with public perceptions that ED and ambulance congestion is a result of inappropriate choice by patients. The challenge for health services is to better understand the patient’s needs and to design and validate services that meet those needs. The failure of our health system to do so should not be grounds for blaming the patient, claiming inappropriate patient choices.

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Price based technique is one way to handle increase in peak demand and deal with voltage violations in residential distribution systems. This paper proposes an improved real time pricing scheme for residential customers with demand response option. Smart meters and in-home display units are used to broadcast the price and appropriate load adjustment signals. Customers are given an opportunity to respond to the signals and adjust the loads. This scheme helps distribution companies to deal with overloading problems and voltage issues in a more efficient way. Also, variations in wholesale electricity prices are passed on to electricity customers to take collective measure to reduce network peak demand. It is ensured that both customers and utility are benefitted by this scheme.

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Business Process Management (BPM) is accepted globally as an organizational approach to enhance productivity and drive cost efficiencies. Studies confirm a shortage of BPM skilled professionals with limited opportunities to develop the required BPM expertise. This study investigates this gap starting from a critical analysis of BPM courses offered by Australian universities and training institutions. These courses were analyzed and mapped against a leading BPM capability framework to determine how well current BPM education and training offerings in Australia address the core capabilities required by BPM professionals globally. To determine the BPM skill-sets sought by industry, online recruitment advertisements were collated, analyzed, and mapped against this BPM capability framework. The outcomes provide a detailed overview on the alignment of available BPM education/training and industry demand. These insights are useful for BPM professionals and their employers to build awareness of the BPM capabilities required for a BPM mature organization. Universities and other training institutions will benefit from these results by understanding where demand is, where the gaps are, and what other BPM education providers are supplying. This structured comparison method could continue to provide a common ground for future discussion across university-industry boundaries and continuous alignment of their respective practices.

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In this paper, a demand-responsive decision support system is proposed by integrating the operations of coal shipment, coal stockpiles and coal railing within a whole system. A generic and flexible scheduling optimisation methodology is developed to identify, represent, model, solve and analyse the coal transport problem in a standard and convenient way. As a result, the integrated train-stockpile-ship timetable is created and optimised for improving overall efficiency of coal transport system. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis based on extensive computational experiments is conducted to validate the proposed methodology. The mathematical proposition and proof are concluded as technical and insightful advices for industry practice. The proposed methodology provides better decision making on how to assign rail rolling-stocks and upgrade infrastructure in order to significantly improve capacity utilisation with the best resource-effectiveness ratio. The proposed decision support system with train-stockpile-ship scheduling optimisation techniques is promising to be applied in railway or mining industry, especially as a useful quantitative decision making tool on how to use more current rolling-stocks or whether to buy additional rolling-stocks for mining transportation.

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This paper proposes a reward based demand response algorithm for residential customers to shave network peaks. Customer survey information is used to calculate various criteria indices reflecting their priority and flexibility. Criteria indices and sensitivity based house ranking is used for appropriate load selection in the feeder for demand response. Customer Rewards (CR) are paid based on load shift and voltage improvement due to load adjustment. The proposed algorithm can be deployed in residential distribution networks using a two-level hierarchical control scheme. Realistic residential load model consisting of non-controllable and controllable appliances is considered in this study. The effectiveness of the proposed demand response scheme on the annual load growth of the feeder is also investigated. Simulation results show that reduced peak demand, improved network voltage performance, and customer satisfaction can be achieved.

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The aim of this work is to develop a demand-side-response model, which assists electricity consumers exposed to the market price to independently and proactively manage air-conditioning peak electricity demand. The main contribution of this research is to show how consumers can optimize the energy cost caused by the air conditioning load considering to several cases e.g. normal price, spike price, and the probability of a price spike case. This model also investigated how air-conditioning applies a pre-cooling method when there is a substantial risk of a price spike. The results indicate the potential of the scheme to achieve financial benefits for consumers and target the best economic performance for electrical generation distribution and transmission. The model was tested with Queensland electricity market data from the Australian Energy Market Operator and Brisbane temperature data from the Bureau of Statistics regarding hot days from 2011 to 2012.

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A novel intelligent online demand side management system is proposed for peak load management. The method also regulates the network voltage, balances the power in three phases and coordinates the battery storage discharge within the network. This method uses low cost controllers with low bandwidth two-way communication installed in costumers' premises and at distribution transformers to manage the peak load while maximizing customer satisfaction. A multi-objective decision making process is proposed to select the load(s) to be delayed or controlled. The efficacy of the proposed control system is verified through an event-based developed simulation in Matlab.

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A novel intelligent online demand management system is discussed in this chapter for peak load management in low voltage residential distribution networks based on the smart grid concept. The discussed system also regulates the network voltage, balances the power in three phases and coordinates the energy storage within the network. This method uses low cost controllers, with two-way communication interfaces, installed in costumers’ premises and at distribution transformers to manage the peak load while maximizing customer satisfaction. A multi-objective decision making process is proposed to select the load(s) to be delayed or controlled. The efficacy of the proposed control system is verified by a MATLAB-based simulation which includes detailed modeling of residential loads and the network.