Outcomes and patterns of failure in solitary plasmacytoma: a multicenter Rare Cancer Network study of 258 patients

PURPOSE: To assess the outcomes and patterns of failure in solitary plasmacytoma (SP). METHODS AND MATERIALS: The data from 258 patients with bone (n = 206) or extramedullary (n = 52) SP without evidence of multiple myeloma (MM) were collected. A histopathologic diagnosis was obtained for all patients. Most (n = 214) of the patients received radiotherapy (RT) alone; 34 received chemotherapy and RT, and 8 surgery alone. The median radiation dose was 40 Gy. The median follow-up was 56 months (range 7-245). RESULTS: The median time to MM development was 21 months (range 2-135), with a 5-year probability of 45%. The 5-year overall survival, disease-free survival, and local control rate was 74%, 50%, and 86%, respectively. On multivariate analyses, the favorable factors were younger age and tumor size <4 cm for survival; younger age, extramedullary localization, and RT for disease-free survival; and small tumor and RT for local control. Bone localization was the only predictor of MM development. No dose-response relationship was found for doses >30 Gy, even for larger tumors. CONCLUSION: Progression to MM remains the main problem. Patients with extramedullary SP had the best outcomes, especially when treated with moderate-dose RT. Chemotherapy and/or novel therapies should be investigated for bone or bulky extramedullary SP.

Prostaglandin E1 testing in heart failure-associated pulmonary hypertension enables transplantation: the PROPHET study

BACKGROUND: Elevated pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) is relevant to prognosis of congestive heart failure and heart transplantation. Proof of reversibility by pharmacologic testing in potential transplantation candidates is important because it indicates a reduced probability of right ventricular failure or death in the early post-transplant period. This study aimed to clarify the possible extent of acute reversibility of elevated PVR in a large, consecutive cohort of heart transplant candidates. METHODS: This study included 208 consecutive patients (age 52 +/- 10 years, 89% men and 11% women, ejection fraction 21 +/- 9%, Vo2max 12.6 +/- 4.2 ml/kg/min) being evaluated for heart transplantation in 7 transplant centers in Germany and Switzerland. Testing was performed with increasing intravenous doses of prostaglandin E1 (PGE1; average maximum dose 173 +/- 115 ng/kg/min for at least 10 minutes) in 92 patients exhibiting a baseline PVR of > 2.5 Wood units (WU) and/or a transpulmonary gradient (TPG) of > 12 mm Hg. RESULTS: PGE1 testing lowered PVR from 4.1 +/- 2.0 to 2.1 +/- 1.1 WU (p < 0.01), increased cardiac output from 3.8 +/- 1.0 to 5.0 +/- 1.5 liters/min (p < 0.01), and decreased TPG from 14 +/- 4 to 10 +/- 3 mm Hg (p < 0.01), mean pulmonary artery pressure (PAM) from 39 +/- 9 to 29 +/- 9 mm Hg (p < 0.01) and mean pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) from 24 +/- 7 to 19 +/- 9 mm Hg (p < 0.01). Mean aortic pressure (MAP) decreased to 85% and systemic vascular resistance (SVR) to 65% of baseline values (p < 0.01). Symptomatic systemic hypotension was not observed. For the whole population the percentage of patients with PVR > 2.5 WU was reduced from 44.2% to 10.5% with PGE1. PVR decreased in each patient; only 2 patients (1%) remained ineligible for listing because of a final PVR of > 4.0 WU. TPG, ejection fraction and male gender were independent predictors of reversibility of PVR. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated PVR in heart transplant candidates is highly reversible and can be normalized during acute pharmacologic testing with PGE1.

Tenofovir or zidovudine in second-line antiretroviral therapy after stavudine failure in southern Africa

BACKGROUND There is debate over using tenofovir or zidovudine alongside lamivudine in second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) following stavudine failure. We analyzed outcomes in cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe METHODS: Patients aged ≥16 years who switched from a first-line regimen including stavudine to a ritonavir-boosted lopinavir-based second-line regimen with lamivudine or emtricitabine and zidovudine or tenofovir in seven ART programs in southern Africa were included. We estimated the causal effect of receiving tenofovir or zidovudine on mortality and virological failure using Cox proportional hazards marginal structural models. Its parameters were estimated using inverse probability of treatment weights. Baseline characteristics were age, sex, calendar year and country. CD4 cell count, creatinine and hemoglobin levels were included as time-dependent confounders. RESULTS 1,256 patients on second-line ART, including 958 on tenofovir, were analyzed. Patients on tenofovir were more likely to have switched to second-line ART in recent years, spent more time on first-line ART (33 vs. 24 months) and had lower CD4 cell counts (172 vs. 341 cells/μl) at initiation of second-line ART. The adjusted hazard ratio comparing tenofovir with zidovudine was 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.59-1.68) for virologic failure and 1.40 (0.57-3.41) for death. CONCLUSIONS We did not find any difference in treatment outcomes between patients on tenofovir or zidovudine; however, the precision of our estimates was limited. There is an urgent need for randomized trials to inform second-line ART strategies in resource-limited settings.

Distributed sensor failure detection in sensor networks

We investigate the problem of distributed sensors' failure detection in networks with a small number of defective sensors, whose measurements differ significantly from the neighbor measurements. We build on the sparse nature of the binary sensor failure signals to propose a novel distributed detection algorithm based on gossip mechanisms and on Group Testing (GT), where the latter has been used so far in centralized detection problems. The new distributed GT algorithm estimates the set of scattered defective sensors with a low complexity distance decoder from a small number of linearly independent binary messages exchanged by the sensors. We first consider networks with one defective sensor and determine the minimal number of linearly independent messages needed for its detection with high probability. We then extend our study to the multiple defective sensors detection by modifying appropriately the message exchange protocol and the decoding procedure. We show that, for small and medium sized networks, the number of messages required for successful detection is actually smaller than the minimal number computed theoretically. Finally, simulations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms methods based on random walks in terms of both detection performance and convergence rate.

Safety and Feasibility of a Diagnostic Algorithm Combining Clinical Probability, d-Dimer Testing, and Ultrasonography for Suspected Upper Extremity Deep Venous Thrombosis: A Prospective Management Study.

BACKGROUND Although well-established for suspected lower limb deep venous thrombosis, an algorithm combining a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography has not been evaluated for suspected upper extremity deep venous thrombosis (UEDVT). OBJECTIVE To assess the safety and feasibility of a new diagnostic algorithm in patients with clinically suspected UEDVT. DESIGN Diagnostic management study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01324037) SETTING: 16 hospitals in Europe and the United States. PATIENTS 406 inpatients and outpatients with suspected UEDVT. MEASUREMENTS The algorithm consisted of the sequential application of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography. Patients were first categorized as likely or unlikely to have UEDVT; in those with an unlikely score and normal d-dimer levels, UEDVT was excluded. All other patients had (repeated) compression ultrasonography. The primary outcome was the 3-month incidence of symptomatic UEDVT and pulmonary embolism in patients with a normal diagnostic work-up. RESULTS The algorithm was feasible and completed in 390 of the 406 patients (96%). In 87 patients (21%), an unlikely score combined with normal d-dimer levels excluded UEDVT. Superficial venous thrombosis and UEDVT were diagnosed in 54 (13%) and 103 (25%) patients, respectively. All 249 patients with a normal diagnostic work-up, including those with protocol violations (n = 16), were followed for 3 months. One patient developed UEDVT during follow-up, for an overall failure rate of 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0% to 2.2%). LIMITATIONS This study was not powered to show the safety of the substrategies. d-Dimer testing was done locally. CONCLUSION The combination of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography can safely and effectively exclude UEDVT. If confirmed by other studies, this algorithm has potential as a standard approach to suspected UEDVT. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE None.

Self-reported nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy as a predictor of viral failure and mortality.

OBJECTIVE To determine the effect of nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on virologic failure and mortality in naive individuals starting ART. DESIGN Prospective observational cohort study. METHODS Eligible individuals enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, started ART between 2003 and 2012, and provided adherence data on at least one biannual clinical visit. Adherence was defined as missed doses (none, one, two, or more than two) and percentage adherence (>95, 90-95, and <90) in the previous 4 weeks. Inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models was used to estimate the effect of nonadherence on viral failure (HIV-1 viral load >500 copies/ml) and mortality. RESULTS Of 3150 individuals followed for a median 4.7 years, 480 (15.2%) experienced viral failure and 104 (3.3%) died, 1155 (36.6%) reported missing one dose, 414 (13.1%) two doses and, 333 (10.6%) more than two doses of ART. The risk of viral failure increased with each missed dose (one dose: hazard ratio [HR] 1.15, 95% confidence interval 0.79-1.67; two doses: 2.15, 1.31-3.53; more than two doses: 5.21, 2.96-9.18). The risk of death increased with more than two missed doses (HR 4.87, 2.21-10.73). Missing one to two doses of ART increased the risk of viral failure in those starting once-daily (HR 1.67, 1.11-2.50) compared with those starting twice-daily regimens (HR 0.99, 0.64-1.54, interaction P = 0.09). Consistent results were found for percentage adherence. CONCLUSION Self-report of two or more missed doses of ART is associated with an increased risk of both viral failure and death. A simple adherence question helps identify patients at risk for negative clinical outcomes and offers opportunities for intervention.

Association between mean residual life (MRL) and failure rate functions for continuous and discrete lifetime distributions

The purpose of this study was to correct some mistakes in the literature and derive a necessary and sufficient condition for the MRL to follow the roller-coaster pattern of the corresponding failure rate function. It was also desired to find the conditions under which the discrete failure rate function has an upside-down bathtub shape if corresponding MRL function has a bathtub shape. The study showed that if discrete MRL has a bathtub shape, then under some conditions the corresponding failure rate function has an upside-down bathtub shape. Also the study corrected some mistakes in proofs of Tang, Lu and Chew (1999) and established a necessary and sufficient condition for the MRL to follow the roller-coaster pattern of the corresponding failure rate function. Similarly, some mistakes in Gupta and Gupta (2000) are corrected, with the ensuing results being expanded and proved thoroughly to establish the relationship between the crossing points of the failure rate and associated MRL functions. The new results derived in this study will be useful to model various lifetime data that occur in environmental studies, medical research, electronics engineering, and in many other areas of science and technology.

New Bivariate Lifetime Distributions Based on Bath-Tub Shaped Failure Rate

A class of lifetime distributions which has received considerable attention in modelling and analysis of lifetime data is the class of lifetime distributions with bath-tub shaped failure rate functions because of their extensive applications. The purpose of this thesis was to introduce a new class of bivariate lifetime distributions with bath-tub shaped failure rates (BTFRFs). In this research, first we reviewed univariate lifetime distributions with bath-tub shaped failure rates, and several multivariate extensions of a univariate failure rate function. Then we introduced a new class of bivariate distributions with bath-tub shaped failure rates (hazard gradients). Specifically, the new class of bivariate lifetime distributions were developed using the method of Morgenstern’s method of defining bivariate class of distributions with given marginals. The computer simulations and numerical computations were used to investigate the properties of these distributions.

Cost-effectiveness of natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care: a report from the STOP-HF (St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure) study

AIMS: Prevention of cardiovascular disease and heart failure (HF) in a cost-effective manner is a public health goal. This work aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of the St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure (STOP-HF) intervention.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a substudy of 1054 participants with cardiovascular risk factors [median age 65.8 years, interquartile range (IQR) 57.8:72.4, with 4.3 years, IQR 3.4:5.2, follow-up]. Annual natriuretic peptide-based screening was performed, with collaborative cardiovascular care between specialist physicians and general practitioners provided to patients with BNP levels >50 pg/mL. Analysis of cost per case prevented and cost-effectiveness per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained was performed. The primary clinical endpoint of LV dysfunction (LVD) with or without HF was reduced in intervention patients [odds ratio (OR) 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-0.94; P = 0.026]. There were 157 deaths and/or emergency hospitalizations for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in the control group vs. 102 in the intervention group (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.49-0.93; P = 0.01). The cost per case of LVD/HF prevented was €9683 (sensitivity range -€843 to €20 210), whereas the cost per MACE prevented was €3471 (sensitivity range -€302 to €7245). Cardiovascular hospitalization savings offset increased outpatient and primary care costs. The cost per QALY gain was €1104 and the intervention has an 88% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of €30 000.

CONCLUSION: Among patients with cardiovascular risk factors, natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care reduced LVD, HF, and MACE, and has a high probability of being cost-effective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00921960.

Network Connectivity under Node Failure

We examine a non-cooperative model of network formation where players may stop functioning with a given probability. When this happens all the links associated with this player are no longer available in the network. In the model, players receive benefits from connecting directly and indirectly to other agents in the network through costly links. We identify conditions under which a Nash network will remain connected after the loss of k nodes by introducing the notion of k-Node Super Connectivity network. We identify similar conditions for efficient networks as well.