Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot, HEPN-707, 2015

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for approximately 4,100 bridges and structures that are a part of the state’s primary highway system, which includes the Interstate, US, and Iowa highway routes. A pilot study was conducted for six bridges in two Iowa river basins—the Cedar River Basin and the South Skunk River Basin—to develop a methodology to evaluate their vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather. The six bridges had been either closed or severely stressed by record streamflow within the past seven years. An innovative methodology was developed to generate streamflow scenarios given climate change projections. The methodology selected appropriate rainfall projection data to feed into a streamflow model that generated continuous peak annual streamflow series for 1960 through 2100, which were used as input to PeakFQ to estimate return intervals for floods. The methodology evaluated the plausibility of rainfall projections and credibility of streamflow simulation while remaining consistent with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) protocol for estimating the return interval for floods. The results were conveyed in an innovative graph that combined historical and scenario-based design metrics for use in bridge vulnerability analysis and engineering design. The pilot results determined the annual peak streamflow response to climate change likely will be basin-size dependent, four of the six pilot study bridges would be exposed to increased frequency of extreme streamflow and would have higher frequency of overtopping, the proposed design for replacing the Interstate 35 bridges over the South Skunk River south of Ames, Iowa is resilient to climate change, and some Iowa DOT bridge design policies could be reviewed to consider incorporating climate change information.

Extreme population differentiation in vulnerable slavemaking ant with fragmented distribution

Understanding levels of population differentiation and inbreeding are important issues in conservation biology, especially for social Hymenoptera with fragmented and small population sizes. Isolated populations are more vulnerable to genetic loss and extinction than those with extended continuous distributions. However, small populations are not always a consequence of a recent reduction of their habitat. Thus, determining the history of population isolation and current patterns of genetic variation of a species is crucial for its conservation. Rossomyrmex minuchae is a slave-making ant with patchy distribution in South Eastern Spain and is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN. In contrast, the other three known species of the genus are presumed to show more uniform distributions. Here we investigate the genetic diversity and population structure of R. minuchae and compare it with that found in two other species of the genus: R. anatolicus and R. quandratinodum. We conclude that although genetic diversity of R. minuchae is low, there is no evidence of a recent bottleneck, suggesting a gradual and natural fragmentation process. We also show extreme population differentiation at nuclear and mitochondrial markers, and isolation by distance at a local scale. Despite some evidence for inbreeding and low genetic variation within populations, we found almost no diploid males, a finding which contrasts with that expected in inbred Hymenoptera with single locus complementary sex determination. This could mean that sex is determined by another mechanism. We argue that continued low population size means that detrimental effects of inbreeding and low genetic variation are likely in the future. We suggest that a policy of artificial gene flow aimed at increasing within population variation is considered as a management option.

Comparative transcriptomics of extreme phenotypes of human HIV-1 infection and SIV infection in sooty mangabey and rhesus macaque.

High levels of HIV-1 replication during the chronic phase of infection usually correlate with rapid progression to severe immunodeficiency. However, a minority of highly viremic individuals remains asymptomatic and maintains high CD4+ T cell counts. This tolerant profile is poorly understood and reminiscent of the widely studied nonprogressive disease model of SIV infection in natural hosts. Here, we identify transcriptome differences between rapid progressors (RPs) and viremic nonprogressors (VNPs) and highlight several genes relevant for the understanding of HIV-1-induced immunosuppression. RPs were characterized by a specific transcriptome profile of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells similar to that observed in pathogenic SIV-infected rhesus macaques. In contrast, VNPs exhibited lower expression of interferon-stimulated genes and shared a common gene regulation profile with nonpathogenic SIV-infected sooty mangabeys. A short list of genes associated with VNP, including CASP1, CD38, LAG3, TNFSF13B, SOCS1, and EEF1D, showed significant correlation with time to disease progression when evaluated in an independent set of CD4+ T cell expression data. This work characterizes 2 minimally studied clinical patterns of progression to AIDS, whose analysis may inform our understanding of HIV pathogenesis.

Extreme self-monitoring, fear of hypoglycemia and obsessive-compulsive disorder in type 1 diabetes mellitus: when less is better

Background: Pre-existing psychological factors can strongly influence coping with type 1 diabetes mellitus and interfere with self-monitoring. Psychiatric disorders seem to be positively associated with poor metabolic control. We present a case of extreme compulsive blood testing due to obsessive fear of hypoglycemia in an adolescent with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Case report: Type 1 diabetes mellitus (anti GAD-antibodies 2624 U/l, norm < 9.5) was diagnosed in a boy aged 14.3 years [170 cm (+ 0.93 SDS), weight 50.5 kg (+ 0.05 SDS)]. Laboratory work-up showed no evidence for other autoimmune disease. Family and past medical history were unremarkable. Growth and developmental milestones were normal. Insulin-analog based basal-bolus regime was initiated, associated to standard diabetic education. Routine psychological evaluation performed at the onset of diabetes revealed intermittent anxiety and obsessivecompulsive traits. Accordingly, a close psychiatric follow-up was initiated for the patient and his family. An adequate metabolic control (HbA1c drop from >14 to 8%) was achieved within 3 months, attributed to residual -cell function. In the following 6 months, HbA1c rose unexpectedly despite seemingly adequate adaptations of insulin doses. Obsessive fear of hypoglycemia leading to a severe compulsive behavior developed progressively with as many as 68 glycemia measurements per day (mean over 1 week). The patient reported that he could not bear leaving home with glycemia < 15 mmol/l, ending up with school eviction and severe intra-familial conflict. Despite intensive psychiatric outpatient support, HbA1c rose rapidly to >14% with glycemia-testing reaching peaks of 120 tests/day. The situation could only be discontinued through psychiatric hospitalization with intensive behavioral training. As a result, adequate metabolic balance was restored (HbA1c value: 7.1 %) with acceptable 10-15 daily glycemia measurements. Discussion: The association of overt psychiatric disorders to type 1 diabetes mellitus is very rare in the pediatric age group. It can lead to a pathological behavior with uncontrolled diabetes. Such exceptional situations require long-term admissions with specialized psychiatric care. Slow acceptation of a "less is better" principle in glycemia testing and amelioration of metabolic control are difficult to achieve.

The use of quantile trees in the prediction of the diameter distribution of a stand

Abstract

Quantile Estimation in Non-Stationary Streaming Data

We provide an incremental quantile estimator for Non-stationary Streaming Data. We propose a method for simultaneous estimation of multiple quantiles corresponding to the given probability levels from streaming data. Due to the limitations of the memory, it is not feasible to compute the quantiles by storing the data. So estimating the quantiles as the data pass by is the only possibility. This can be effective in network measurement. To provide the minimum of the mean-squared error of the estimation, we use parabolic approximation and for comparison we simulate the results for different number of runs and using both linear and parabolic approximations.

Extreme-value distributions and renormalization group

In the classical theorems of extreme value theory the limits of suitably rescaled maxima of sequences of independent, identically distributed random variables are studied. The vast majority of the literature on the subject deals with affine normalization. We argue that more general normalizations are natural from a mathematical and physical point of view and work them out. The problem is approached using the language of renormalization-group transformations in the space of probability densities. The limit distributions are fixed points of the transformation and the study of its differential around them allows a local analysis of the domains of attraction and the computation of finite-size corrections.

Preface: Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning

This special issue of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) contains eight papers presented as oral or poster contributions in the Natural Hazards NH-1.2 session on"Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning", held at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, on 13-18 April 2008. The aim of the session was to provide an international forum for presenting new results and for discussing innovative ideas and concepts on extreme hydro-meteorological events, including: (i) the assessment of the risk posed by the extreme events, (ii) the expected changes in the frequency and intensity of the events driven by a changing climate and by multiple human- induced causes, (iii) new modelling approaches and original forecasting methods to predict extreme events and their consequences, and (iv) strategies for hazard mitigation and risk reduction, and for a improved adaptation to extreme hydro-meteorological events ...

Executive functions profile in extreme eating/weight conditions: from anorexia nervosa to obesity

Extreme weight conditions (EWC) groups along a continuum may share some biological risk factors and intermediate neurocognitive phenotypes. A core cognitive trait in EWC appears to be executive dysfunction, with a focus on decision making, response inhibition and cognitive flexibility. Differences between individuals in these areas are likely to contribute to the differences in vulnerability to EWC. The aim of the study was to investigate whether there is a common pattern of executive dysfunction in EWC while comparing anorexia nervosa patients (AN), obese subjects (OB) and healthy eating/weight controls (HC).

The Mediterranean benthic herbivores show diverse responses to extreme storm disturbances

Catastrophic storms have been observed to be one of the major elements in shaping the standing structure of marine benthic ecosystems. Yet, little is known about the effect of catastrophic storms on ecosystem processes. Specifically, herbivory is the main control mechanism of macrophyte communities in the Mediterranean, with two main key herbivores: the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus and the fish Sarpa salpa. Consequently, the effects of extreme storm events on these two herbivores (at the population level and on their behaviour) may be critical for the functioning of the ecosystem. With the aim of filling this gap, we took advantage of two parallel studies that were conducted before, during and after an unexpected catastrophic storm event. Specifically, fish and sea urchin abundance were assessed before and after the storm in monitored fixed areas (one site for sea urchin assessment and 3 sites for fish visual transects). Additionally, we investigated the behavioural response to the disturbance of S. salpa fishes that had been tagged with acoustic transmitters. Given their low mobility, sea urchins were severely affected by the storm (ca. 50% losses) with higher losses in those patches with a higher density of sea urchins. This may be due to a limited availability of refuges within each patch. In contrast, fish abundance was not affected, as fish were able to move to protected areas (i.e. deeper) as a result of the high mobility of this species. Our results highlight that catastrophic storms differentially affect the two dominant macroherbivores of rocky macroalgal and seagrass systems due to differences in mobility and escaping strategies. This study emphasises that under catastrophic disturbances, the presence of different responses among the key herbivores of the system may be critical for the maintenance of the herbivory function.

The increase in hydric volume is associated to contractile impairment in the calf after the world's most extreme mountain ultra-marathon

BACKGROUND: Studies have recently focused on the effect of running a mountain ultra-marathon (MUM) and their results show muscular inflammation, damage and force loss. However, the link between peripheral oedema and muscle force loss is not really established. We tested the hypothesis that, after a MUM, lower leg muscles' swelling could be associated with muscle force loss. The knee extensor (KE) and the plantar flexor (PF) muscles' contractile function was measured by supramaximal electrical stimulations, potentiated low- and high-frequency doublets (PS10 and PS100) of the KE and the PF were measured by transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation and bioimpedance was used to assess body composition in the runners (n = 11) before (Pre) and after (Post) the MUM and compared with the controls (n = 8). RESULTS: The maximal voluntary contraction of the KE and the PF significantly decreased by 20 % Post-MUM in the runners. Hydration of the non-fat mass (NF-Hyd) and extracellular water volume (Ve) were increased by 12 % Post-MUM (p < 0.001) in the runners. Calf circumference (+2 %, p < 0.05) was also increased. Significant relationships were found for percentage increases in Ve and NF-Hyd with percentage decrease in PS10 of the PF (r = -0.68 and r = -0.70, p < 0.05) and with percentage increase of calf circumference (r = 0.72 and r = 0.73, p < 0.05) in the runners. CONCLUSIONS: The present study suggests that increases in circumference and in hydric volume are associated to contractile impairment in the calf in ultra-marathon runners.

The use of flexible quantile-based measures in risk assessment

A new family of distortion risk measures -GlueVaR- is proposed in Belles- Sampera et al. -2013- to procure a risk assessment lying between those provided by common quantile-based risk measures. GlueVaR risk measures may be expressed as a combination of these standard risk measures. We show here that this relationship may be used to obtain approximations of GlueVaR measures for general skewed distribution functions using the Cornish-Fisher expansion. A subfamily of GlueVaR measures satisfies the tail-subadditivity property. An example of risk measurement based on real insurance claim data is presented, where implications of tail-subadditivity in the aggregation of risks are illustrated.