Activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex signals the accumulation of evidence in a probability learning task.

In an uncertain environment, probabilities are key to predicting future events and making adaptive choices. However, little is known about how humans learn such probabilities and where and how they are encoded in the brain, especially when they concern more than two outcomes. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), young adults learned the probabilities of uncertain stimuli through repetitive sampling. Stimuli represented payoffs and participants had to predict their occurrence to maximize their earnings. Choices indicated loss and risk aversion but unbiased estimation of probabilities. BOLD response in medial prefrontal cortex and angular gyri increased linearly with the probability of the currently observed stimulus, untainted by its value. Connectivity analyses during rest and task revealed that these regions belonged to the default mode network. The activation of past outcomes in memory is evoked as a possible mechanism to explain the engagement of the default mode network in probability learning. A BOLD response relating to value was detected only at decision time, mainly in striatum. It is concluded that activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex reflects the amount of evidence accumulated in favor of competing and uncertain outcomes.

Correlating the end-Triassic mass extinction and flood basalt volcanism at the 100 ka level

New high-precision U/Pb geochronology from volcanic ashes shows that the Triassic-Jurassic boundary and end-Triassic biological crisis from two independent marine stratigraphic sections correlate with the onset of terrestrial flood volcanism in the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province to <150 ka. This narrows the correlation between volcanism and mass extinction by an order of magnitude for any such catastrophe in Earth history. We also show that a concomitant drop and rise in sea level and negative delta C-13 spike in the very latest Triassic occurred locally in <290 ka. Such rapid sea-level fluctuations on a global scale require that global cooling and glaciation were closely associated with the end-Triassic extinction and potentially driven by Central Atlantic Magmatic Province volcanism.

Lumbar spine texture enhances 10-year fracture probability assessment.

We found that lumbar spine texture analysis using trabecular bone score (TBS) is a risk factor for MOF and a risk factor for death in a retrospective cohort study from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. INTRODUCTION: FRAX® estimates the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) using clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS), derived from texture in the spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image, is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk independently of BMD. Our objective was to determine whether TBS provides information on MOF probability beyond that provided by the FRAX variables. METHODS: We included 33,352 women aged 40-100 years (mean 63 years) with baseline DXA measurements of lumbar spine TBS and femoral neck BMD. The association between TBS, the FRAX variables, and the risk of MOF or death was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model. RESULTS: During the mean of 4.7 years, 1,754 women died and 1,872 sustained one or more MOF. For each standard deviation reduction in TBS, there was a 36 % increase in MOF risk (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.30-1.42, p < 0.001) and a 32 % increase in death (HR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.26-1.39, p < 0.001). When adjusted for significant clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD, lumbar spine TBS was still a significant predictor of MOF (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.23) and death (HR 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26). Models for estimating MOF probability, accounting for competing mortality, showed that low TBS (10th percentile) increased risk by 1.5-1.6-fold compared with high TBS (90th percentile) across a broad range of ages and femoral neck T-scores. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS is able to predict incident MOF independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD even after accounting for the increased death hazard.

Hilbert space on probability density functions with Aitchison geometry

Compositional data analysis motivated the introduction of a complete Euclidean structure in the simplex of D parts. This was based on the early work of J. Aitchison (1986) and completed recently when Aitchinson distance in the simplex was associated with an inner product and orthonormal bases were identified (Aitchison and others, 2002; Egozcue and others, 2003). A partition of the support of a random variable generates a composition by assigning the probability of each interval to a part of the composition. One can imagine that the partition can be refined and the probability density would represent a kind of continuous composition of probabilities in a simplex of infinitely many parts. This intuitive idea would lead to a Hilbert-space of probability densitiesby generalizing the Aitchison geometry for compositions in the simplex into the set probability densities

Evaluating the probability and the impact of a failure in GMPLS based networks

In this paper, we define a new scheme to develop and evaluate protection strategies for building reliable GMPLS networks. This is based on what we have called the network protection degree (NPD). The NPD consists of an a priori evaluation, the failure sensibility degree (FSD), which provides the failure probability, and an a posteriori evaluation, the failure impact degree (FID), which determines the impact on the network in case of failure, in terms of packet loss and recovery time. Having mathematical formulated these components, experimental results demonstrate the benefits of the utilization of the NPD, when used to enhance some current QoS routing algorithms in order to offer a certain degree of protection

Estimation of the probability of congestion using Monte Carlo method in OPS networks

In networks with small buffers, such as optical packet switching based networks, the convolution approach is presented as one of the most accurate method used for the connection admission control. Admission control and resource management have been addressed in other works oriented to bursty traffic and ATM. This paper focuses on heterogeneous traffic in OPS based networks. Using heterogeneous traffic and bufferless networks the enhanced convolution approach is a good solution. However, both methods (CA and ECA) present a high computational cost for high number of connections. Two new mechanisms (UMCA and ISCA) based on Monte Carlo method are proposed to overcome this drawback. Simulation results show that our proposals achieve lower computational cost compared to enhanced convolution approach with an small stochastic error in the probability estimation

Multiple causes of the evolution of dispersal in metapopulations

Abstract This work investigates the outcome of the interaction of the multiple causes of selection acting on dispersal in metapopulations. Dispersal, defined here as the ability of individuals to move out of their natal population to reproduce in an other one, has three main causes. First, population variability, as caused by random population extinctions, induces high incentives to disperse through the probability to recolonize an empty population and thus to escape competition for space. This adds to the second cause, kin competition avoidance where individuals in a crowded patch will benefit from the release of competition with relatives caused by dispersal. Dispersal may thus be viewed as an altruistic act. Third, dispersal might evolve as a strategy of avoiding inbred matings which are expected to bear fitness costs due to the presence of a mutation load. The interaction of inbreeding avoidance and kin competition is explored in chapter 2. Conditions conducive to the establishment of a high relatedness within population are expected to induce high dispersal through both kin competition avoidance and inbreeding avoidance. However, the dynamics of inbreeding depression is bound to depend on the level of gene flow as well as on the deleterious mutation parameters. Mutations more prone to settle a high level of inbreeding depression will select for increased dispersal. Chapter 3 investigates the effect of the mating system on the joint dynamics of dispersal and inbreeding depression. Higher inbreeding rates as those found in various mating systems lead to a more efficient purge of the deleterious mutations. However, this decrease in the costs of inbreeding are usually accompanied by a higher within deme relatedness which balances the decreased effect of inbreeding avoidance on the evolution of dispersal. Finally, population turnover, as found in most natural populations has a dual effect on dispersal. Indeed, it increases dispersal by the increased probability of winning a breeding slot in extinct demes it creates but, on the other hand, it counter-selects for dispersal through the slow establishment of unsaturated demic conditions which contribute to lower the local competition for space. Résumé Ce travail se propose d'étudier les effets conjoints des multiples causes de l'évolution de la dispersion en métapopulation. La dispersion, définie ici comme étant la capacité de quitter sa population d'origine pour se reproduire dans une antre population, possède trois principales causes. Premièrement, l'extinction aléatoire de populations sélectionne pour plus de dispersion car elle augmente la Probabilité de recoloniser un patch éteint et donc d'échapper à la compétition locale. La seconde cause, l'évitement de la compétition de parentèle, sélectionne pour plus de dispersion par les bénéfices qu'elle apporte par diminution de la compétition entre individus apparentés. Troisièmement, la dispersion évolue "comme stratégie d'évitement de la dépression de consanguinité présente dans des petites populations isolées. L'interaction entre l'évitement de la consanguinité et de la compétition de parentèle est étudiée dans le chapitre 2. Les conditions conduisant à l'établissement d'un fort apparentement à l'intérieur des populations sont celles qui génèrent le plus de sélection pour la dispersion. Cependant, la dynamique de la dépression de consanguinité est dépendante de la dispersion entre populations ainsi que des paramètres des mutations délétères. Les mutations créant le plus de dépression de consanguinité sont celles qui sélectionneront le plus pour de la dispersion. Le chapitre 3 s'intéresse aux effets du système de reproduction sur la dynamique conjointe du fardeau de mutation et de la dispersion. La purge des mutations délétère étant plus sévère dans des conditions de forte consanguinité, elle diminue les coûts de la consanguinité mais est habituellement accompagné par une augmentation de l'apparentement et donc l'effet peut être neutre sur la dispersion. Finalement, le turnover de populations a un effet dual sur la dispersion. La dispersion est sélectionnée par l'augmentation de la probabilité de gagner une place de reproduction dans des patchs éteints mais elle est également contre sélectionnée par la désaturation des patchs causée par l'extinction et la diminution de la compétition pour l'espace qui intervient dans ce cas.

Probability distribution of the radionuclide half-lives

Power law distributions, a well-known model in the theory of real random variables, characterize a wide variety of natural and man made phenomena. The intensity of earthquakes, the word frequencies, the solar ares and the sizes of power outages are distributed according to a power law distribution. Recently, given the usage of power laws in the scientific community, several articles have been published criticizing the statistical methods used to estimate the power law behaviour and establishing new techniques to their estimation with proven reliability. The main object of the present study is to go in deep understanding of this kind of distribution and its analysis, and introduce the half-lives of the radioactive isotopes as a new candidate in the nature following a power law distribution, as well as a \canonical laboratory" to test statistical methods appropriate for long-tailed distributions.

The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.

Range expansion of the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula in Switzerland results in local extinction of the bicoloured white-toothed shrew C-leucodon

The distribution limits of Crocidura russula (Hermann, 1780) and C. leucodon (Hermann, 1780) were investigated during an interval of 25 years in the bottom of the Rhone valley above Lake Geneva, Switzerland (total data set: 105 spatio-temporal occurrences, 1137 shrews). In 1975, the contact zone between the two species was situated in the region of Martigny. In 1999/2000, new sampling revealed three results: (1) The contact zone showed an upward shift of about 25 km. (2) In the expanded range of C. russula, the resident species has totally disappeared (confirmed by owl pellets analysis). (3) This demonstrates a dominance of C, russula over C. leucodon. Three hypotheses which may explain the range expansion of C. russula were evaluated: (1) habitat modification favouring linear dispersal due to the construction of a highway; (2) temporal event favoured by climate fluctuations, or (3) ongoing postglacial colonisation of Europe. Hypothesis 1 was rejected, because the progression of the shrews anticipated the construction. Hypothesis 3 received only weak support because range limits of C. russula in the region of Nice have been stable for thousands of years. Therefore hypothesis 2, admitting that ongoing climate change has facilitated range expansion, is the most probable.

Relaxation of selective constraints causes independent selenoprotein extinction in insect genomes

BACKGROUND: Selenoproteins are a diverse family of proteins notable for the presence of the 21st amino acid, selenocysteine. Until very recently, all metazoan genomes investigated encoded selenoproteins, and these proteins had therefore been believed to be essential for animal life. Challenging this assumption, recent comparative analyses of insect genomes have revealed that some insect genomes appear to have lost selenoprotein genes. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this paper we investigate in detail the fate of selenoproteins, and that of selenoprotein factors, in all available arthropod genomes. We use a variety of in silico comparative genomics approaches to look for known selenoprotein genes and factors involved in selenoprotein biosynthesis. We have found that five insect species have completely lost the ability to encode selenoproteins and that selenoprotein loss in these species, although so far confined to the Endopterygota infraclass, cannot be attributed to a single evolutionary event, but rather to multiple, independent events. Loss of selenoproteins and selenoprotein factors is usually coupled to the deletion of the entire no-longer functional genomic region, rather than to sequence degradation and consequent pseudogenisation. Such dynamics of gene extinction are consistent with the high rate of genome rearrangements observed in Drosophila. We have also found that, while many selenoprotein factors are concomitantly lost with the selenoproteins, others are present and conserved in all investigated genomes, irrespective of whether they code for selenoproteins or not, suggesting that they are involved in additional, non-selenoprotein related functions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Selenoproteins have been independently lost in several insect species, possibly as a consequence of the relaxation in insects of the selective constraints acting across metazoans to maintain selenoproteins. The dispensability of selenoproteins in insects may be related to the fundamental differences in antioxidant defense between these animals and other metazoans.