Patient preference for falls prevention in hospitals revealed through willingness-to-pay, contingent valuation survey

Rationale, aims and objectives: Patient preference for interventions aimed at preventing in-hospital falls has not previously been investigated. This study aims to contrast the amount patients are willing to pay to prevent falls through six intervention approaches. ----- ----- Methods: This was a cross-sectional willingness-to-pay (WTP), contingent valuation survey conducted among hospital inpatients (n = 125) during their first week on a geriatric rehabilitation unit in Queensland, Australia. Contingent valuation scenarios were constructed for six falls prevention interventions: a falls consultation, an exercise programme, a face-to-face education programme, a booklet and video education programme, hip protectors and a targeted, multifactorial intervention programme. The benefit to participants in terms of reduction in risk of falls was held constant (30% risk reduction) within each scenario. ----- ----- Results: Participants valued the targeted, multifactorial intervention programme the highest [mean WTP (95% CI): $(AUD)268 ($240, $296)], followed by the falls consultation [$215 ($196, $234)], exercise [$174 ($156, $191)], face-to-face education [$164 ($146, $182)], hip protector [$74 ($62, $87)] and booklet and video education interventions [$68 ($57, $80)]. A ‘cost of provision’ bias was identified, which adversely affected the valuation of the booklet and video education intervention. ----- ----- Conclusion: There may be considerable indirect and intangible costs associated with interventions to prevent falls in hospitals that can substantially affect patient preferences. These costs could substantially influence the ability of these interventions to generate a net benefit in a cost–benefit analysis.

Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation

A method of eliciting prior distributions for Bayesian models using expert knowledge is proposed. Elicitation is a widely studied problem, from a psychological perspective as well as from a statistical perspective. Here, we are interested in combining opinions from more than one expert using an explicitly model-based approach so that we may account for various sources of variation affecting elicited expert opinions. We use a hierarchical model to achieve this. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem involves a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school.

Patient-specific computational biomechanics for simulating adolescent scoliosis surgery : predicted vs clinical correction for a preliminary series of six patients

Scoliosis is a spinal deformity that requires surgical correction in progressive cases. In order to optimize surgical outcomes, patient-specific finite element models are being developed by our group. In this paper, a single rod anterior correction procedure is simulated for a group of six scoliosis patients. For each patient, personalised model geometry was derived from low-dose CT scans, and clinically measured intra-operative corrective forces were applied. However, tissue material properties were not patient-specific, being derived from existing literature. Clinically, the patient group had a mean initial Cobb angle of 47.3 degrees, which was corrected to 17.5 degrees after surgery. The mean simulated post-operative Cobb angle for the group was 18.1 degrees. Although this represents good agreement between clinical and simulated corrections, the discrepancy between clinical and simulated Cobb angle for individual patients varied between -10.3 and +8.6 degrees, with only three of the six patients matching the clinical result to within accepted Cobb measurement error of +-5 degrees. The results of this study suggest that spinal tissue material properties play an important role in governing the correction obtained during surgery, and that patient-specific modelling approaches must address the question of how to prescribe patient-specific soft tissue properties for spine surgery simulation.

Elicitator : a user-friendly, interactive tool to support scenario-based elicitation of expert knowledge

Expert elicitation is the process of determining what expert knowledge is relevant to support a quantitative analysis and then eliciting this information in a form that supports analysis or decision-making. The credibility of the overall analysis, therefore, relies on the credibility of the elicited knowledge. This, in turn, is determined by the rigor of the design and execution of the elicitation methodology, as well as by its clear communication to ensure transparency and repeatability. It is difficult to establish rigor when the elicitation methods are not documented, as often occurs in ecological research. In this chapter, we describe software that can be combined with a well-structured elicitation process to improve the rigor of expert elicitation and documentation of the results

Focusing on patients : differences between the practice of expert and non-expert nephrology nurses

Specialisation in nursing enables a nurse to focus, in much greater depth, on the requisite knowledge and skills for providing patients with the best possible care. Nephrology nursing is one such area where specialisation has evolved. The characteristic focus of practice emerged as an important feature during a study into the process of expertise acquisition in nephrology nursing practice. Using grounded theory methodology, this study involved 6 non-expert and 11 expert nurses and took place in one renal unit in New South Wales. Nephrology nursing practice was observed for 103 hours, and this was immediately followed by semi-structured interviews. The characteristic of focus was conceptualised as the nurses' centre of attention or concentration while they were undertaking nursing activities. Focus ranged from inexperienced non-expert nurses concentrating predominantly on the immediate task at hand, experienced non-expert nurses who focussed on the medium term to expert nurses who viewed actions (and their possible consequences) more broadly and in the longer term. Of significance to nursing, is how nephrology nurses alter their focus of practice as they acquire and exercise their developing expertise in this specialty.

Monitoring mesenchymal stem cell cultures using image processing and pattern recognition techniques

Stem cells have attracted tremendous interest in recent times due to their promise in providing innovative new treatments for a great range of currently debilitating diseases. This is due to their potential ability to regenerate and repair damaged tissue, and hence restore lost body function, in a manner beyond the body's usual healing process. Bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells or bone marrow stromal cells are one type of adult stem cells that are of particular interest. Since they are derived from a living human adult donor, they do not have the ethical issues associated with the use of human embryonic stem cells. They are also able to be taken from a patient or other donors with relative ease and then grown readily in the laboratory for clinical application. Despite the attractive properties of bone marrow stromal cells, there is presently no quick and easy way to determine the quality of a sample of such cells. Presently, a sample must be grown for weeks and subject to various time-consuming assays, under the direction of an expert cell biologist, to determine whether it will be useful. Hence there is a great need for innovative new ways to assess the quality of cell cultures for research and potential clinical application. The research presented in this thesis investigates the use of computerised image processing and pattern recognition techniques to provide a quicker and simpler method for the quality assessment of bone marrow stromal cell cultures. In particular, aim of this work is to find out whether it is possible, through the use of image processing and pattern recognition techniques, to predict the growth potential of a culture of human bone marrow stromal cells at early stages, before it is readily apparent to a human observer. With the above aim in mind, a computerised system was developed to classify the quality of bone marrow stromal cell cultures based on phase contrast microscopy images. Our system was trained and tested on mixed images of both healthy and unhealthy bone marrow stromal cell samples taken from three different patients. This system, when presented with 44 previously unseen bone marrow stromal cell culture images, outperformed human experts in the ability to correctly classify healthy and unhealthy cultures. The system correctly classified the health status of an image 88% of the time compared to an average of 72% of the time for human experts. Extensive training and testing of the system on a set of 139 normal sized images and 567 smaller image tiles showed an average performance of 86% and 85% correct classifications, respectively. The contributions of this thesis include demonstrating the applicability and potential of computerised image processing and pattern recognition techniques to the task of quality assessment of bone marrow stromal cell cultures. As part of this system, an image normalisation method has been suggested and a new segmentation algorithm has been developed for locating cell regions of irregularly shaped cells in phase contrast images. Importantly, we have validated the efficacy of both the normalisation and segmentation method, by demonstrating that both methods quantitatively improve the classification performance of subsequent pattern recognition algorithms, in discriminating between cell cultures of differing health status. We have shown that the quality of a cell culture of bone marrow stromal cells may be assessed without the need to either segment individual cells or to use time-lapse imaging. Finally, we have proposed a set of features, that when extracted from the cell regions of segmented input images, can be used to train current state of the art pattern recognition systems to predict the quality of bone marrow stromal cell cultures earlier and more consistently than human experts.

Understanding the role of knowledge in the practice of expert nephrology nurses in Australia

This paper, which is abstracted from a larger study into the acquisition and exercise of nephrology nursing expertise, aims to explore the role of knowledge in expert practice. Using grounded theory methodology, the study involved 17 registered nurses who were practicing in a metropolitan renal unit in New South Wales, Australia. Concurrent data collection and analysis was undertaken, incorporating participants' observations and interviews. Having extensive nephrology nursing knowledge was a striking characteristic of a nursing expert. Expert nurses clearly relied on and utilized extensive nephrology nursing knowledge to practice. Of importance for nursing, the results of this study indicate that domain-specific knowledge is a crucial feature of expert practice.

Recognition of expertise : an important concept in the acquisition of nephrology nursing expertise

The present article, which is abstracted from a larger study into the acquisition and exercise of nephrology nursing expertise, aims to explore the concept of recognition of expertise. The study used grounded theory methodology and involved 17 registered nurses who were practising in a metropolitan renal unit in New South Wales, Australia. Concurrent data collection and analysis was undertaken, incorporating participant observations and interviews. According to nurses in this study, patients, doctors and other nurses recognized that some nurses were experts while others were not. In addition, being trusted, being a role model and teaching others were important components of being recognized as an expert nephrology nurse. Of importance for nursing, the results of the present study indicate that knowledge and experience are not sufficient to ensure expert practice; recognition of expertise by others is an important function of expertise acquisition.

Multitask learning with expert advice

We consider the problem of prediction with expert advice in the setting where a forecaster is presented with several online prediction tasks. Instead of competing against the best expert separately on each task, we assume the tasks are related, and thus we expect that a few experts will perform well on the entire set of tasks. That is, our forecaster would like, on each task, to compete against the best expert chosen from a small set of experts. While we describe the “ideal” algorithm and its performance bound, we show that the computation required for this algorithm is as hard as computation of a matrix permanent. We present an efficient algorithm based on mixing priors, and prove a bound that is nearly as good for the sequential task presentation case. We also consider a harder case where the task may change arbitrarily from round to round, and we develop an efficient approximate randomized algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.

Multitask learning with expert advice

We consider the problem of prediction with expert advice in the setting where a forecaster is presented with several online prediction tasks. Instead of competing against the best expert separately on each task, we assume the tasks are related, and thus we expect that a few experts will perform well on the entire set of tasks. That is, our forecaster would like, on each task, to compete against the best expert chosen from a small set of experts. While we describe the "ideal" algorithm and its performance bound, we show that the computation required for this algorithm is as hard as computation of a matrix permanent. We present an efficient algorithm based on mixing priors, and prove a bound that is nearly as good for the sequential task presentation case. We also consider a harder case where the task may change arbitrarily from round to round, and we develop an efficient approximate randomized algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.