Bayesian doubly optimal group sequential designs for randomized clinical trials

When conducting a randomized comparative clinical trial, ethical, scientific or economic considerations often motivate the use of interim decision rules after successive groups of patients have been treated. These decisions may pertain to the comparative efficacy or safety of the treatments under study, cost considerations, the desire to accelerate the drug evaluation process, or the likelihood of therapeutic benefit for future patients. At the time of each interim decision, an important question is whether patient enrollment should continue or be terminated; either due to a high probability that one treatment is superior to the other, or a low probability that the experimental treatment will ultimately prove to be superior. The use of frequentist group sequential decision rules has become routine in the conduct of phase III clinical trials. In this dissertation, we will present a new Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to the problem of designing a randomized group sequential clinical trial, focusing on two-arm trials with time-to-failure outcomes. Forward simulation is used to obtain optimal decision boundaries for each of a set of possible models. At each interim analysis, we use Bayesian model selection to adaptively choose the model having the largest posterior probability of being correct, and we then make the interim decision based on the boundaries that are optimal under the chosen model. We provide a simulation study to compare this method, which we call Bayesian Doubly Optimal Group Sequential (BDOGS), to corresponding frequentist designs using either O'Brien-Fleming (OF) or Pocock boundaries, as obtained from EaSt 2000. Our simulation results show that, over a wide variety of different cases, BDOGS either performs at least as well as both OF and Pocock, or on average provides a much smaller trial. ^

(Table 1) Species richness and diversity of tundra plants in herbivore exclosure and control plots near Barrow, Alaska

To determine the role lemmings play in structuring plant communities and their contribution to the 'greening of the Arctic', we measured plant cover and biomass in 50 + year old lemming exclosures and control plots in the coastal tundra near Barrow, Alaska. The response of plant functional types to herbivore exclusion varied among land cover types. In general, the abundance of lichens and bryophytes increased with the exclusion of lemmings, whereas graminoids decreased, although the magnitude of these responses varied among land cover types. These results suggest that sustained lemming activity promotes a higher biomass of vascular plant functional types than would be expected without their presence and highlights the importance of considering herbivory when interpreting patterns of greening in the Arctic. In light of the rapid environmental change ongoing in the Arctic and the potential regional to global implications of this change, further exploration regarding the long-term influence of arvicoline rodents on ecosystem function (e.g. carbon and energy balance) should be considered a research priority.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, chlorophyll a and photosynthetic carbon fixation rate under different light and pCO2 conditions during experiments, 2010

We carried out short term pCO2/pH perturbation experiments in the coastal waters of the South China Sea to evaluate the combined effects of seawater acidification (low pH/high pCO2) and solar UV radiation (UVR, 280-400 nm) on photosynthetic carbon fixation of phytoplankton assemblages. Under photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) alone treatments, reduced pCO2 (190 ppmv) with increased pH resulted in a significant decrease in the photosynthetic carbon fixation rate (about 23%), while enriched pCO2 (700 ppmv) with lowered pH had no significant effect on the photosynthetic performance compared to the ambient level. The apparent photosynthetic efficiency decreased under the reduced pCO2 level, probably due to C-limitation as well as energy being diverged for up-regulation of carbon concentrating mechanisms (CCMs). In the presence of UVR, both UV-A and UV-B caused photosynthetic inhibition, though UV-A appeared to enhance the photosynthetic efficiency under lower PAR levels. UV-B caused less inhibition of photosynthesis under the reduced pCO2 level, probably because of its contribution to the inorganic carbon (Ci)-acquisition processes. Under the seawater acidification conditions (enriched pCO2), both UV-A and UV-B reduced the photosynthetic carbon fixation to higher extents compared to the ambient pCO2 conditions. We conclude that solar UV and seawater acidification could synergistically inhibit photosynthesis.

Dissolved lithium and silicon through time in microbial dissolution experiments on ODP Leg 209 peridotite

Using peridotite drilled during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 209, a series of enrichment cultures were initiated on board the ship to stimulate microbially enhanced dissolution of olivine. Dissolution was estimated by measured changes in dissolved Li and Si in the media through time (up to 709 days). The results suggest that there was no significant difference between the amounts of dissolved Li and Si in most of the inoculated microbial cultures compared to the control cultures. Alternative explanations for this are that 1. No microbes are living in the culture tubes that can affect the dissolution rates of olivine, 2. The control cultures have microbes effecting the dissolution of olivine as well as the inoculated cultures, 3. Not enough time has passed to build up a large enough microbial population to effect the dissolution of the olivine in the culture tubes, 4. Microbes act to suppress dissolution of olivine instead of enhancing dissolution, and 5. Abiotic dissolution overshadows microbially enhanced dissolution. Further work is required to test these alternatives.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, primary production, biomass and calcification of plankton and bacteria, 2009

Production (abundance and biomass) and net calcification rates of the coccolithophorid Pleurochrysis carterae under different partial pressures of CO2 (pCO2) were examined using short (15, 24 and 39 h), long (7 d) and dark (7 d) incubation experiments. Short incubations were conducted at ambient, 500 and 820 ppm pCO2 levels in natural seawater that was enriched with nutrients and inoculated with P. carterae. Long incubations were conducted at ambient and 1200 ppm pCO2 levels in natural seawater (0.2 µm filtered as well as unfiltered) that was enriched with nutrients and inoculated with P. carterae. Dark incubations were conducted at ambient and 1200 ppm pCO2 in unfiltered seawater that was inoculated with P. carterae. The abundance and biomass of coccolithophorids increased with pCO2 and time. The abundance and biomass of most noncalcifying phytoplankton also increased, and were hardly affected by CO2 inputs. Net calcification rates were negative in short incubations during the pre-bloom phase regardless of pCO2 levels, indicating dissolution of calcium carbonate. Further, the negative values of net calcification in short incubations became less negative with time. Net calcification rates were positive in long incubations during blooms regardless of pCO2 level, and the rate of calcification increased with pCO2. Our results show that P. carterae may adapt to increased (~1200 ppm) pCO2 level with time, and such increase has little effect on the ecology of noncalcifying groups and hence in ecosystem dynamics. In dark incubations, net calcification rates were negative, with the magnitude being dependent on pCO2 levels.

Temperature dependent growth and inorganic ion composition of haemolymph of juvenile Sepia officinalis, 2006

B Body wet weight and mantle length of juvenile Sepia officinalis were monitored over a peroid of five weeks. The animals had hatched in our aquarium system in Bremerhaven, Germany at 16°C and were descendants of individuals collected in the Oosterschelde estuary, Netherlands. Animals were kept in natural sea water at 10 or 17°C and fed small live shrimp (Palaemonetes varians) ad libitum daily. At the end of the experiment some animals kept at 17°C were sacrificed using ethanol. Haemolymph was withdrawn from the head vein using syringe and needle. Haemolymph samples were stored at -20°C until Na+, Cl-, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+ and SO42- concentrations were determined using ion chromatography. Mean body weight more that tripled at 17°C during the investigation period, while growth was impared by exposue to 10°C. Haemolymph ion concentrations were similar to those in sea water, except for sulphate. The concentration of this ion in the haemolymph was more that ten times lower than in sea water.