The persistence of lifestyles: rates and correlates of homicide in Western Europe from 1960 to 2010

This article analyses rates and correlates of homicide in 15 West European countries from 1960 to 2010. The results show that the levels of homicide in 2010 and the trends in homicide from 1960 to 2010 are not related to any of the traditional demographic and socioeconomic predictors of crime. Homicide victimization rates show an increase from the mid-1960s until the early 1990s, and a decrease since then. Victims of both genders and all group ages follow the same trend, except in the case of infanticide, which decreased during the whole period. These results do not support the hypothesis of a homicide trend driven by the evolution of victimization of young men in public space. The authors propose an explanation based on a lifestyle approach.

Retrieval of kinetic rates in reactions with semi batch liquid phase using ill-posed inverse problem theory

A neural network procedure to solve inverse chemical kinetic problems is discussed in this work. Rate constants are calculated from the product concentration of an irreversible consecutive reaction: the hydrogenation of Citral molecule, a process with industrial interest. Simulated and experimental data are considered. Errors in the simulated data, up to 7% in the concentrations, were assumed to investigate the robustness of the inverse procedure. Also, the proposed method is compared with two common methods in nonlinear analysis; the Simplex and Levenberg-Marquardt approaches. In all situations investigated, the neural network approach was numerically stable and robust with respect to deviations in the initial conditions or experimental noises.

Addressing conflicts of interest in the research paper: a societal demand in contemporary science?

In the last decade, dialogue between science and society has found a forum in an increasing number of publications on topics such as public engagement with science and public trust in science. Concerning the latter, issues that include cases of research misconduct, accountability in research, and conflicts of interest (COIs) have shaped global discussions on the communication of science. In the publication setting, the perception that hiding COIs and/or not managing them well may affect public trust in the research record has grown among editors. We conducted a search for editorials addressing COIs between 1989 and 2011, using four major databases: Medline/PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Knowledge. We explored the content of these editorials and the relationship they established between COIs and the public trust in science. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between disclosure of COIs and public trust in science has become a major concern among editors. We, thus, argue that COIs should be discussed more openly and frequently in graduate courses in the sciences, around the globe, not only in biomedical but also in non-biomedical areas. This is a critical issue in contemporary science, as graduate students are the future voices and decision-makers of the research community. Therefore, COIs, especially in the broader context of science and society, merit closer attention from policymakers, researchers, and educators. At times of great expectations for public engagement with science, mishandling of COIs may have undesirable consequences for public engagement with science and confidence in the scientific endeavor.

Exchange rate regulation, the behavior of exchange rates, and macroeconomic stability in Brazil

In the last two decades an entirely new set of rules governing the foreign exchange transactions was established in Brazil, substituting for the framework inherited from the 1930s. Foreign exchange controls were dismantled and a floating exchange rate regime replaced different forms of peg. In this paper we argue that although successful by comparison to previous experiences, the current arrangement has important flaws that should be addressed. We discuss how it first led to high volatility and extremely high interest rates, which, when overcome, gave way to a long lasting appreciation of the real exchange rate with adverse consequences to industry.

Forecasting the Yield Curve of Government Bonds: A Comparative Study

For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields

Can Italy and Spain survive rates of 6-7%? CEPS Policy Brief No. 279, 27 July 2012

The sentiment that the euro is now in real danger is based in large part on the widespread conviction that interest rates of 6-7% are simply unsustainable for both Italy and Spain., After taking a closer look at the fundamentals, however, Daniel Gros concludes in this new Policy Brief that both countries should be able to live with this level of interest rates for quite some time, but only if they mobilize domestic savings, which remain strong in both countries. For Spain, some debt/equity swaps are also needed.

Biased representation of disturbance rates in the roadside sampling frame in boreal forests: implications for monitoring design

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is the principal source of data to inform researchers about the status of and trend for boreal forest birds. Unfortunately, little BBS coverage is available in the boreal forest, where increasing concern over the status of species breeding there has increased interest in northward expansion of the BBS. However, high disturbance rates in the boreal forest may complicate roadside monitoring. If the roadside sampling frame does not capture variation in disturbance rates because of either road placement or the use of roads for resource extraction, biased trend estimates might result. In this study, we examined roadside bias in the proportional representation of habitat disturbance via spatial data on forest “loss,” forest fires, and anthropogenic disturbance. In each of 455 BBS routes, the area disturbed within multiple buffers away from the road was calculated and compared against the area disturbed in degree blocks and BBS strata. We found a nonlinear relationship between bias and distance from the road, suggesting forest loss and forest fires were underrepresented below 75 and 100 m, respectively. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance was overrepresented at distances below 500 m and underrepresented thereafter. After accounting for distance from road, BBS routes were reasonably representative of the degree blocks they were within, with only a few strata showing biased representation. In general, anthropogenic disturbance is overrepresented in southern strata, and forest fires are underrepresented in almost all strata. Similar biases exist when comparing the entire road network and the subset sampled by BBS routes against the amount of disturbance within BBS strata; however, the magnitude of biases differed. Based on our results, we recommend that spatial stratification and rotating panel designs be used to spread limited BBS and off-road sampling effort in an unbiased fashion and that new BBS routes be established where sufficient road coverage exists.

International evidence on the predictability of returns to securitized real estate assets: econometric models versus neural networks

The performance of various statistical models and commonly used financial indicators for forecasting securitised real estate returns are examined for five European countries: the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Italy. Within a VAR framework, it is demonstrated that the gilt-equity yield ratio is in most cases a better predictor of securitized returns than the term structure or the dividend yield. In particular, investors should consider in their real estate return models the predictability of the gilt-equity yield ratio in Belgium, the Netherlands and France, and the term structure of interest rates in France. Predictions obtained from the VAR and univariate time-series models are compared with the predictions of an artificial neural network model. It is found that, whilst no single model is universally superior across all series, accuracy measures and horizons considered, the neural network model is generally able to offer the most accurate predictions for 1-month horizons. For quarterly and half-yearly forecasts, the random walk with a drift is the most successful for the UK, Belgian and Dutch returns and the neural network for French and Italian returns. Although this study underscores market context and forecast horizon as parameters relevant to the choice of the forecast model, it strongly indicates that analysts should exploit the potential of neural networks and assess more fully their forecast performance against more traditional models.

Linkages between property asset returns and interest rates: evidence for the UK

This paper considers the effect of short- and long-term interest rates, and interest rate spreads upon real estate index returns in the UK. Using Johansen's vector autoregressive framework, it is found that the real estate index cointegrates with the term spread, but not with the short or long rates themselves. Granger causality tests indicate that movements in short term interest rates and the spread cause movements in the returns series. However, decomposition of the forecast error variances from VAR models indicate that changes in these variables can only explain a small proportion of the overall variability of the returns, and that the effect has fully worked through after two months. The results suggest that these financial variables could potentially be used as leading indicators for real estate markets, with corresponding implications for return predictability.

The Determinants of Recovery Rates on Defaulted Corporate Securities: Why do Fallen Angels recover more than Original High Yield Issues?

Regression analysis has shown that recovery rates are determined by a variety of conditions at the time of default. These conditions can be broken into five major categories: (1) a security's seniority within the capital structure of the defaulting firm, (2) the type of default event, (3) firm-specific factors, (4) industry-specific factors, and (5) macroeconomic factors. Expectations of these inputs determine the expected recovery rate if default were to occur, thereby determining credit ratings and security prices. Although it is widely understood how recovery rate estimates influence credit rating assignments (the higher the expected recovery rate, the higher the assigned credit rating), no research, to the best of my knowledge, has investigated the reasons why higher rated securities recover more than lower rated securities in the event of default. Specifically, this paper will empirically investigate why securities originally rated investment grade, fallen angels, recover more than securities originally rated high yield in the event of default.

Bahamas and Barbados: empirical evidence of interest rate pass-through

Includes bibliography

The evolution of mating rates in Pieris napi

In the green-veined white butterfly (Pieris napi), females obtain direct fitness benefits from mating multiply and studies have shown that fitness increases seemingly monotonically with number of matings. The reason is that at mating males transfer a large nutritious gift (a so called nuptial gift) to the females that the females use to increase both their fecundity and lifespan. In addition, if exposed to poor food conditions as larvae, females mature at a smaller size compared to males. Accordingly, it was suggested that smaller females could compensate for their size through nuptial feeding by, for instance, mating more frequently. We did not find any support for that hypothesis. On the contrary, larger females remated sooner and had a higher lifetime number of matings. Neither were smaller females able to compensate in any other way, because singly mated females and multiply mated females suffered to the same extent from their smaller size. This thesis also shows that despite the positive relationship between fitness and number of matings, there is a large variation in female mating frequency in wild populations and about every second female mates only once or twice. This variation is not dependent on how often females get courted by males, because female mating frequency was shown not to be affected by male courtship intensity. Hence, the reason for the low mating frequency could either be that males have evolved the ability to manipulate females to mate at a suboptimal rate as a measure of protection against sperm competition, or alternatively, that female mating rate is suppressed by some costs. Using two selection lines, artificially selected for either a high or a low mating rate, we showed that the variation in mating rate was mainly a female trait because which line the females were from affected their mating rate whereas which line the male was from did not. This implies that females mate at a low rate due to hidden costs or due to constraints. The same study also showed that females with a high "intrinsic" mating rate lived shorter, but only when denied remating. This led us to test the hypothesis that the cost females face is to have the ability to mate at a high rate but the cost is only paid when remating opportunities are scarce. However, we found no support for such an idea, because females with a high intrinsic mating rate held in a cold environment where the butterflies were prevented from flying and feeding did not live shorter. Neither was there an effect of a female’s mating rate on her ability to quickly break down and convert male nutrient gifts into egg material. Female mating rate did, on the other hand, affect dispersal tendency, with low mating rate females being more inclined to fly between different habitats. The underlying reason for this is still to be explored.

The Effects of Altered Prenatal Melatonin Signaling on Adult Behavior and Hippocampal Gene Expression of the Male Rat: A Circadioneuroendocrine-Axis Hypothesis of Psychopathology

Disturbances in melatonin - the neurohormone that signals environmental darkness as part of the circadian circuit of mammals - have been implicated in various psychopathologies in humans. At present, experimental evidence linking prenatal melatonin signaling to adult physiology, behavior, and gene expression is lacking. We hypothesized that administration of melatonin (5 mg/kg) or the melatonin receptor antagonist luzindole (5 mg/kg) to rats in utero would permanently alter the circadian circuit to produce differential growth, adult behavior, and hippocampal gene expressionin the male rat. Prenatal treatment was found to increase growth in melatonin-treated animals. In addition, subjects exposed to melatonin prenatally displayed increased rearing in the open field test and an increased right turn preference in the elevated plusmaze. Rats administered luzindole prenatally, however, displayed greater freezing and grooming behavior in the open field test and improved learning in the Morris water maze. Analysis of relative adult hippocampal gene expression with RT-PCR revealed increasedexpression of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) with a trend toward increased expression of melatonin 1A (MEL1A) receptors in melatonin-exposed animals whereas overall prenatal treatment had a significant effect on microtubule-associated protein 2(MAP2) expression. Our data support the conclusion that the manipulation of maternal melatonin levels alters brain development and leads to physiological and behavioral abnormalities in adult offspring. We designate the term circadioneuroendocrine (CNE)axis and propose the CNE-axis hypothesis of psychopathology.

A test of the Bolton-Scheinkman-Xiong hypothesis of how speculation affects the vesting time of options granted to directors

This paper investigates empirically the Bolton, Scheinkman, and Xiong (2006) hypothesis, according to which initial shareholders may provide incentives to managers to take actions that stimulate speculative bubbles. We test this hypothesis with data on up to 8,544 directors and up to 1,677 companies between 2004-2008. Using vesting time as a measure of the short-term performance weighting in CEO compensation and various alternative measures of the extent of speculation, the findings support the hypothesis: vesting time decreases with more intensive speculation. The results prove robust in various empirical model specifications.

NRAS and BRAF mutations in primary cutaneous melanoma: A comparison of mutation rates between radial and vertical growth phases in individual tumors

Primary cutaneous melanoma is a cancer arising from melanocytes in the skin. In recent decades the incidence of this malignancy has increased significantly. Mortality rates are high for patients with tumors measuring over a few millimeters in thickness. Response rates to conventional radiation and chemotherapy are very low in patients with metastatic melanoma. New therapies targeting melanoma’s aberrant cell signaling pathways such as the MAP Kinase pathway are being developed. Mutations of NRAS and BRAF genes are quite common in cutaneous melanoma and lead to constitutive activation of the MAP Kinase pathway. This study tests the hypothesis that NRAS and BRAF mutations increase as a tumor progresses from the noninvasive radial growth phase (RGP) to the invasive vertical growth phase (VGP). Laser capture microdissection was used to obtain separate, pure tumor DNA samples from the RGP and VGP of thirty primary cutaneous melanomas. PCR was used to amplify NRAS exon 2 and BRAF exon 15 tumor DNA. The amplified DNA was sequenced and analyzed for mutations. An overall mutation rate of 74% was obtained for the twenty-three melanomas in which there were complete sequence results. With the exception of one melanoma NRAS and BRAF mutations were mutually exclusive. All seven NRAS exon 2 mutations involved codon 61. Three of these melanomas had mutations in both the RGP and VGP. The remaining four tumors were wild type for NRAS exon 2 in the RGP but mutated in the VGP. Of the fifteen BRAF exon 15 mutated melanomas all but one involved codon 600. Twelve of the fifteen BRAF exon 15 mutations were the T1799A type. Nine of the fifteen BRAF mutated tumors had the same mutation in both the RGP and VGP. Five of fifteen melanomas had wild type RGP DNA and BRAF exon 15 mutated VGP DNA. A single melanoma had BRAF exon 15 mutated DNA in the RGP and wild type DNA in the VGP. Overall, these results suggest a trend toward the acquisition of NRAS and BRAF mutations as cutaneous melanomas change from a noninvasive to an invasive, potentially deadly cancer.^