880 resultados para Expectation
Resumo:
A chapter supplementary to the author's Choice and Chance.
Resumo:
Mode of access: Internet.
Resumo:
Mode of access: Internet.
Resumo:
Direct quantile regression involves estimating a given quantile of a response variable as a function of input variables. We present a new framework for direct quantile regression where a Gaussian process model is learned, minimising the expected tilted loss function. The integration required in learning is not analytically tractable so to speed up the learning we employ the Expectation Propagation algorithm. We describe how this work relates to other quantile regression methods and apply the method on both synthetic and real data sets. The method is shown to be competitive with state of the art methods whilst allowing for the leverage of the full Gaussian process probabilistic framework.
Resumo:
In recent years, hotels in Cyprus have encountered difficult economic times due to increasing customer demands and strong internal industry development competition. The hospitality industry’s main concern globally is to serve its customer S needs and desires, most of which are addressed through personal services. Hence, the hotel businesses that are able to provide quality services to its ever-demanding customers in a warm and efficient manner are those businesses which will be more likely to obtain a long term competitive advantage over their rivals. Ironically, the quality of services frequently cannot fully appreciated until something goes wrong, and then, the poor quality of services can have long lasting lingering effects on the customer base and, hence, often is translated into a loss of business. Nevertheless, since the issue of delivery of hospitality services always involves people, this issue must center around the management of the human resource factor, and in particular, on the way which interacts with itself and with guests, as service encounters. In the eyes of guests, hospitality businesses will be viewed successful or failure, depending on [he cumulative impact of the service encounters they have experienced on a personal level. Finally, since hotels are offering intangible and perishable personal service encounters, managing these services must be a paramount concern of any hotel business. As a preliminary exercise, visualize when you have last visited a hotel, or a restaurant, and then, ask yourself these questions: What did you feel about the quality of the experience? Was it a memorable one, which you would recommend it to others, or there were certain things, which could have made the difference? Thus, the way personalized services are provided can make the deference in attracting arid retaining long-term customers
Resumo:
Episodic memory formation is shaped by expectation. Events that generate expectations have the capacity to influence memory. Additionally, whether subsequent events meet or violate expectations has consequences for memory. However, clarification is still required to illuminate the circumstances and direction of memory modulation. In the brain, the mechanisms by which expectation modulates memory formation also require consideration. The dopamine system has been implicated in signaling events associated with different states of expectancy; it has also been shown to modulate episodic memory formation in the hippocampus. Thus, the studies included in this dissertation utilized both functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and behavioral testing to examine when and how the dopaminergic system supports the modulation of memory by expectation. The work aimed to characterize the activation of dopaminergic circuitry in response to cues that generate expectancy, during periods of anticipation, and in response to outcomes that resolve expectancy. The studies also examined how each of these event types influenced episodic memory formation. The present findings demonstrated that novelty and expectancy violation both drive dopaminergic circuitry capable of contributing to memory formation. Consistent with elevated dopaminergic midbrain and hippocampus activation for each, expected versus expectancy violating novelty did not differentially affect memory success. We also showed that high curiosity expectancy states drive memory formation. This was supported by activation in dopaminergic circuitry that was greater for subsequently remembered information only in the high curiosity state. Finally, we showed that cues that generate high expected reward value versus high reward uncertainty differentially modulate memory formation during reward anticipation. This behavioral result was consistent with distinct temporal profiles of dopaminergic action having differential downstream effects on episodic memory formation. Integrating the present studies with previous research suggests that dopaminergic circuitry signals events that are unpredicted, whether cuing or resolving expectations. It also suggests that contextual differences change the contribution of the dopaminergic system during anticipation, depending on the nature of the expectation. And finally, this work is consistent with a model in which dopamine elevation in response to expectancy events positively modulates episodic memory formation.
Resumo:
Members of the general population have high expectations of people who are asked to corroborate an alibi for the suspect of a crime. The general belief is that it is easy to provide an alibi if a person is innocent, and therefore guilt should be assumed when an alibi cannot be provided. The possibility that having to generate an alibi oneself could influence expectations was examined. Additionally, potential changes in opinion after being provided with positive or negative feedback were explored. Results showed a significant difference in expectations based on whether participants were correct or incorrect in identifying the suspect, that is, whether participants were able to provide an alibi. Those who were incorrect had lower expectations of themselves and of others than those who were correct. Making jurors aware of the difficulty in providing an alibi may lead to fairer treatment of suspects who have difficulty providing one.
Resumo:
The specific mechanisms by which selective pressures affect individuals are often difficult to resolve. In tephritid fruit flies, males respond strongly and positively to certain plant derived chemicals. Sexual selection by female choice has been hypothesized as the mechanism driving this behaviour in certain species, as females preferentially mate with males that have fed on these chemicals. This hypothesis is, to date, based on studies of only very few species and its generality is largely untested. We tested the hypothesis on different spatial scales (small cage and seminatural field-cage) using the monophagous fruit fly, Bactrocera cacuminata. This species is known to respond to methyl eugenol (ME), a chemical found in many plant species and one upon which previous studies have focused. Contrary to expectation, no obvious female choice was apparent in selecting ME-fed males over unfed males as measured by the number of matings achieved over time, copulation duration, or time of copulation initiation. However, the number of matings achieved by ME-fed males was significantly greater than unfed males 16 and 32 days after exposure to ME in small cages (but not in a field-cage). This delayed advantage suggests that ME may not influence the pheromone system of B. cacuminata but may have other consequences, acting on some other fitness consequence (e.g., enhancement of physiology or survival) of male exposure to these chemicals. We discuss the ecological and evolutionary implications of our findings to explore alternate hypotheses to explain the patterns of response of dacine fruit flies to specific plant-derived chemicals.
Resumo:
This paper introduces the special issue “China: Internationalizing the Creative Industries”, describing the Australian Research Council funded “MATE” project which provides the conceptual background for the questions the issue explores. The MATE project began with the expectation that as China evolves from its status as a developing country with an emphasis on primary industries and manufacturing, to a mature, market-driven economy benefiting from high levels of international investment, it will become more actively engaged with the global “knowledge economy” and “information society”. In this context, developments in the “creative industries”, which are playing such an important role in developed economies, might reasonably be expected in China. Although China continues to be characterised by strong central-policy settings, as the domestic consumer market matures there is greater scope for consumer-led creative business development. The “MATE” project aimed to capture some of these changes as they began to gain momentum across a range of services: Media, Advertising, Tourism and Education. This special issue continues this theme with papers that explore the theoretical challenges, economic questions and implications, and practical instantiations of creative industries growth in China. All papers contained in this special issue have been peer-reviewed.
Resumo:
This report investigates lessons learned by educators in the United States when providing a standards-based curriculum for all students including Students with Disabilities (SWD). Assumptions about implementation of these lessons are then made to the Queensland school system. Queensland mainstream schools currently provide a standards-based curriculum for over sixteen thousand-four hundred students with mild-moderate disabilities and appear to be challenged by this new educational reform and its implications to school and teacher practices, beliefs and attitudes. The analysis of US research, literature and educational policy for this report, has provided some implications for Queensland schools in the areas of student participation, achievement and curriculum planning to provide an “education for all”. The analysis and comparison of legislation and policy, which demonstrates some significant similarities, provides greater validity for the application of lessons learned in the United States to the Queensland context. The key findings about lessons learned provides Queensland schools with some assumptions as to why and how they need to refocus school leader and teachers’ practices, beliefs and attitudes to provide an “education for all”. These lessons infer that school leaders and teachers to explicitly focus on equity, expectation, accountability, performance, alignment and collaboration so that effective curriculum is provided for SWD, indeed all students, in the Queensland standards-based curriculum environment.
Resumo:
More than a century ago in their definitive work “The Right to Privacy” Samuel D. Warren and Louis D. Brandeis highlighted the challenges posed to individual privacy by advancing technology. Today’s workplace is characterised by its reliance on computer technology, particularly the use of email and the Internet to perform critical business functions. Increasingly these and other workplace activities are the focus of monitoring by employers. There is little formal regulation of electronic monitoring in Australian or United States workplaces. Without reasonable limits or controls, this has the potential to adversely affect employees’ privacy rights. Australia has a history of legislating to protect privacy rights, whereas the United States has relied on a combination of constitutional guarantees, federal and state statutes, and the common law. This thesis examines a number of existing and proposed statutory and other workplace privacy laws in Australia and the United States. The analysis demonstrates that existing measures fail to adequately regulate monitoring or provide employees with suitable remedies where unjustifiable intrusions occur. The thesis ultimately supports the view that enacting uniform legislation at the national level provides a more effective and comprehensive solution for both employers and employees. Chapter One provides a general introduction and briefly discusses issues relevant to electronic monitoring in the workplace. Chapter Two contains an overview of privacy law as it relates to electronic monitoring in Australian and United States workplaces. In Chapter Three there is an examination of the complaint process and remedies available to a hypothetical employee (Mary) who is concerned about protecting her privacy rights at work. Chapter Four provides an analysis of the major themes emerging from the research, and also discusses the draft national uniform legislation. Chapter Five details the proposed legislation in the form of the Workplace Surveillance and Monitoring Act, and Chapter Six contains the conclusion.
Resumo:
This book analyses and refines the arguments for and against retrospective rule making, concluding that there is one really strong argument against it: the expectation that, if an individual's actions are considered by a future court, the legal consequences of that action will be determined by the law that was discoverable at the time the action was performed. This argument, which goes to the heart of the rule of law, is generally determinative. However, in some cases the argument does not run and this book suggests that, in some areas of law, reliance should be actively discouraged by prospective warnings that the law is subject to change.
Resumo:
Alvin Toffler’s image of the prosumer (1970, 1980, 1990) continues to influence in a significant way our understanding of the user-led, collaborative processes of content creation which are today labelled “social media” or “Web 2.0”. A closer look at Toffler’s own description of his prosumer model reveals, however, that it remains firmly grounded in the mass media age: the prosumer is clearly not the self-motivated creative originator and developer of new content which can today be observed in projects ranging from open source software through Wikipedia to Second Life, but simply a particularly well-informed, and therefore both particularly critical and particularly active, consumer. The highly specialised, high end consumers which exist in areas such as hi-fi or car culture are far more representative of the ideal prosumer than the participants in non-commercial (or as yet non-commercial) collaborative projects. And to expect Toffler’s 1970s model of the prosumer to describe these 21st-century phenomena was always an unrealistic expectation, of course. To describe the creative and collaborative participation which today characterises user-led projects such as Wikipedia, terms such as ‘production’ and ‘consumption’ are no longer particularly useful – even in laboured constructions such as ‘commons-based peer-production’ (Benkler 2006) or ‘p2p production’ (Bauwens 2005). In the user communities participating in such forms of content creation, roles as consumers and users have long begun to be inextricably interwoven with those as producer and creator: users are always already also able to be producers of the shared information collection, regardless of whether they are aware of that fact – they have taken on a new, hybrid role which may be best described as that of a produser (Bruns 2008). Projects which build on such produsage can be found in areas from open source software development through citizen journalism to Wikipedia, and beyond this also in multi-user online computer games, filesharing, and even in communities collaborating on the design of material goods. While addressing a range of different challenges, they nonetheless build on a small number of universal key principles. This paper documents these principles and indicates the possible implications of this transition from production and prosumption to produsage.
Resumo:
Evidence-based Practice (EBP) has recently emerged as a topic of discussion amongst professionals within the library and information services (LIS) industry. Simply stated, EBP is the process of using formal research skills and methods to assist in decision making and establishing best practice. The emerging interest in EBP within the library context serves to remind the library profession that research skills and methods can help ensure that the library industry remains current and relevant in changing times. The LIS sector faces ongoing challenges in terms of the expectation that financial and human resources will be managed efficiently, particularly if library budgets are reduced and accountability to the principal stakeholders is increased. Library managers are charged with the responsibility to deliver relevant and cost effective services, in an environment characterised by rapidly changing models of information provision, information access and user behaviours. Consequently they are called upon not only to justify the services they provide, or plan to introduce, but also to measure the effectiveness of these services and to evaluate the impact on the communities they serve. The imperative for innovation in and enhancements to library practice is accompanied by the need for a strong understanding of the processes of review, measurement, assessment and evaluation. In 2001 the Centre for Information Research was commissioned by the Chartered Institute of Library and Information Professionals (CILIP) in the UK to conduct an examination into the research landscape for library and information science. The examination concluded that research is “important for the LIS [library and information science] domain in a number of ways” (McNicol & Nankivell, 2001, p.77). At the professional level, research can inform practice, assist in the future planning of the profession, raise the profile of the discipline, and indeed the reputation and standing of the library and information service itself. At the personal level, research can “broaden horizons and offer individuals development opportunities” (McNicol & Nankivell, 2001, p.77). The study recommended that “research should be promoted as a valuable professional activity for practitioners to engage in” (McNicol & Nankivell, 2001, p.82). This chapter will consider the role of EBP within the library profession. A brief review of key literature in the area is provided. The review considers issues of definition and terminology, highlights the importance of research in professional practice and outlines the research approaches that underpin EBP. The chapter concludes with a consideration of the specific application of EBP within the dynamic and evolving field of information literacy (IL).