912 resultados para Exact sampling formula for the Wright-Fisher model
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Strategy execution has been a heated topic in the management world in recent years. However, according to a survey done by the Conference Board (2014), the chief executives are so concerned about the execution in their companies and have rated it as the No.1 or No.2 most challenging issue. Many of them choose to invest in training with a purpose to harvest the most for strategy execution. Therefore, this research is trying to find out a model to design training programs that can at most contribute to the success of strategy execution with three real-life training cases done by BTS Consulting Service. It was found that strategy execution could be greatly supported by training programs that take into consideration the four factors, namely Alignment, Mindset to Change, Capability and Organization Support. Main implications of the findings are presented and discussed. Key
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Applying a certain prestress level to the carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) reinforcement according to either externally bonded reinforcing (EBR) or near surface mounted (NSM) techniques can mobilize the strengthening potentialities of this high tensile strength composite material. For the prediction of the flexural behavior of reinforced concrete (RC) structures strengthened with prestressed EBR or NSM CFRPs, however, simplified analytical and design formulations still need to be developed as a guidance for engineers to design this type of strengthened structures by hand calculation without any programming help. Hence, the current work aims to briefly explain a developed simplified analytical approach, with a design framework, to predict the flexural behavior of RC beams flexurally strengthened with either prestressed EBR or NSM CFRP reinforcements. Moreover, an upper limit for the prestress level is proposed in order to optimize the ductility performance of the NSM prestressing technique. The good predictive performance of the analytical approaches was appraised by simulating the results of experimental programs composed of RC beams strengthened with prestressed NSM CFRP reinforcements.
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Buruli Ulcer (BU) is a necrotizing skin disease caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans infection. BU is characterized by a wide range of clinical forms, including non-ulcerative cutaneous lesions that can evolve into severe ulcers if left untreated. Nevertheless, spontaneous healing has been reported to occur, although knowledge on this process is scarce both in naturally infected humans and experimental models of infection. Animal models are useful since they mimic different spectrums of human BU disease and have the potential to elucidate the pathogenic/protective pathway(s) involved in disease/healing. In this time-lapsed study, we characterized the guinea pig, an animal model of resistance to M. ulcerans, focusing on the macroscopic, microbiological and histological evolution throughout the entire experimental infectious process. Subcutaneous infection of guinea pigs with a virulent strain of M. ulcerans led to early localized swelling, which evolved into small well defined ulcers. These macroscopic observations correlated with the presence of necrosis, acute inflammatory infiltrate and an abundant bacterial load. By the end of the infectious process when ulcerative lesions healed, M. ulcerans viability decreased and the subcutaneous tissue organization returned to its normal state after a process of continuous healing characterized by tissue granulation and reepethelialization. In conclusion, we show that the experimental M. ulcerans infection of the guinea pig mimics the process of spontaneous healing described in BU patients, displaying the potential to uncover correlates of protection against BU, which can ultimately contribute to the development of new prophylactic and therapeutic strategies.
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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2011
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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2009
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The public perception of the EU in Spain varies greatly. The most positive aspects of Spanish membership are associated with the consolidation of democracy, economic growth, the introduction of the euro, the growth in employment and structural and cohesion funds, the increase in the female participation rate, and the equal opportunities policies. The analysts are in favour of common objectives in the employment policy and multi-level government. The less positive aspects of the EU are the risks of losing social protection and loss of employment in some sectors due to mergers of multinationals and delocalization of companies towards Eastern Europe. The continuous demands for reform of the welfare state, the toughening of the conditions of access to social benefit and the reform of the labour market are also seen as problematic issues. Risks of competitive cuts and social dumping.
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This paper tests the Entrepreneurial Intention Model -which is adapted from the Theory of Planned Behavior- on a sample of 533 individuals from two quite different countries: one of them European (Spain) and the other South Asian (Taiwan). A newly developed Entrepreneurial Intention Questionnaire (EIQ) has being used which tries to overcome some of the limitations of previous instruments. Structural equations techniques were used in the empirical analysis. Results are generally satisfactory, indicating that the model is probably adequate for studying entrepreneurship. Support for the model was found not only in the combined sample, but also in each of the national ones. However, some differences arose that may indicate demographic variables contribute differently to the formation of perceptions in each culture.
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This paper attempts to extend existing models of political agency to an environment in which voting may be divided between informed and instrumental, informed and ‘expressive’ (Brennan and Lomasky (1993)) and uninformed due to ‘rational irrationality’ (Caplan (2007)). It constructs a model where politicians may be good, bad or populist. Populists are more willing than good politicians to pander to voters who may choose inferior policies in a large-group electoral setting because their vote is insignificant compared with those that voters would choose were their vote decisive in determining the electoral outcome. Bad politicians would ideally like to extract tax revenue for their own ends. Initially we assume the existence of only good and populist politicians. The paper investigates the incentives for good politicians to pool with or separate from populists and focuses on three key issues – (1) how far the majority of voter’s preferences are from those held by the better informed incumbent politician (2) the extent to which the population exhibits rational irrationality and expressiveness (jointly labelled as emotional) and (3) the cost involved in persuading uninformed voters to change their views in terms of composing messages and spreading them. This paper goes on to consider how the inclusion of bad politicians may affect the behaviour of good politicians and suggests that a small amount of potential corruption may be socially useful. It is also argued that where bad politicians have an incentive to mimic the behaviour of good and populist politicians, the latter types of politician may have an incentive to separate from bad politicians by investing in costly public education signals. The paper also discusses the implications of the model for whether fiscal restraints should be soft or hard.
Augmentation cystoplasty using pedicled and de-epithelialized gastric patches in the mini-pig model.
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PURPOSE: The most common methods of bladder augmentation are gastrocystoplasty and enterocystoplasty. Gastrocystoplasty is advantageous due to minimal mucous secretion and a well developed muscular wall as well as good urodynamic properties of the patch. However, the permanent contact of urine with the gastric mucosa is not free of complications. We report the urodynamic, macroscopic and histological outcomes of a pedicled de-epithelialized gastric patch incorporated in the bladder. We compared the results to those of our previous study, which sought to analyze these techniques of patch coverage using sigmoid patches. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed 20 augmentation cystoplasties in the mini-pig model using a pedicled de-epithelialized gastric patch and 5 techniques of patch coverage. RESULTS: Three months after surgery all bladders had an increase in volume except those in which the auto-augmentation technique was used. However, all gastric patches were smaller compared to preoperative size. Many had irregular fibrosed inner surfaces and histological evaluation revealed a fibrosed newly formed submucosal layer with a complete urothelial coverage in every patch. No gastric mucosal remnant was found. CONCLUSIONS: De-epithelialized gastrocystoplasty is an attractive procedure that can increase bladder capacity as well as provide a complete urothelial lining without mucosal remnants. However, the success of this procedure seems to be limited by increased morbidity and fibrotic changes, and decreased surface of the patch.
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Paper delivered at the Western Regional Science Association Annual Conference, Sedona, Arizona, February, 2010.
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In Evans, Guse, and Honkapohja (2008) the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable under adaptive learning, and unstable deflationary paths can arise after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. In the current paper a modified model is presented that includes a locally stable stagnation regime as a possible outcome arising from large expectation shocks. Policy implications are examined. Sufficiently large temporary increases in government spending can dislodge the economy from the stagnation regime and restore the natural stabilizing dynamics. More specific policy proposals are presented and discussed.
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This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro-Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant deviations from the PEER occurred in the years immediately before and after the introduction of the single European currency. The forecasting exercise shows that incorporating economic fundamentals provides a better long-run exchange rate forecasting performance than a random walk process.
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"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."
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This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.