Spatial variation in the temporal change of male and female melanic ornamentation in the barn owl.

Because the magnitude of selection can vary between sexes and in space and time, sexually antagonistic selection is difficult to demonstrate. In a Swiss population of barn owls (Tyto alba), a heritable eumelanic colour trait (size of black spots on ventral feathers) was positively selected with respect to yearling survival only in females. It remains unclear whether the absence of negative selection in males is typical in this species. To tackle this issue indirectly, we measured the size of black spots in 1733 skin specimens collected by museums from 1816 to 2001 in seven European countries and in the Middle-East. The temporal change in spot size was sex- and country-specific. In males, spots became smaller particularly in three countries (Middle-East, Italy and Switzerland). In females, the size of spots increased significantly in two countries (UK and Spain) and decreased in two others (Germany and Switzerland). Because migration and phenotypic plasticity cannot explain these results, selection is the most likely cause. The weaker temporal change in spot size in females than males may be because of the combined effect of strong genetic correlation between the sexes and stronger negative selection in males than positive selection in females. We thus suggest that in the barn owl, spot size (or genetically correlated traits) is sexually antagonistically selected and that its pattern of selection may account for the maintenance of its variation and sexual dimorphism.

Evolutionary dynamics of molecular markers during local adaptation: a case study in Drosophila subobscura

Background: Natural selection and genetic drift are major forces responsible for temporal genetic changes in populations. Furthermore, these evolutionary forces may interact with each other. Here we study the impact of an ongoing adaptive process at the molecular genetic level by analyzing the temporal genetic changes throughout 40 generations of adaptation to a common laboratory environment. Specifically, genetic variability, population differentiation and demographic structure were compared in two replicated groups of Drosophila subobscura populations recently sampled from different wild sources. Results: We found evidence for a decline in genetic variability through time, along with an increase in genetic differentiation between all populations studied. The observed decline in genetic variability was higher during the first 14 generations of laboratory adaptation. The two groups of replicated populations showed overall similarity in variability patterns. Our results also revealed changing demographic structure of the populations during laboratory evolution, with lower effective population sizes in the early phase of the adaptive process. One of the ten microsatellites analyzed showed a clearly distinct temporal pattern of allele frequency change, suggesting the occurrence of positive selection affecting the region around that particular locus. Conclusion: Genetic drift was responsible for most of the divergence and loss of variability between and within replicates, with most changes occurring during the first generations of laboratory adaptation. We also found evidence suggesting a selective sweep, despite the low number of molecular markers analyzed. Overall, there was a similarity of evolutionary dynamics at the molecular level in our laboratory populations, despite distinct genetic backgrounds and some differences in phenotypic evolution.

Genetic diversity in caribou linked to past and future climate change

Climate-driven range fluctuations during the Pleistocene have continuously reshaped species distribution leading to populations of contrasting genetic diversity. Contemporary climate change is similarly influencing species distribution and population structure, with important consequences for patterns of genetic diversity and species' evolutionary potential1. Yet few studies assess the impacts of global climatic changes on intraspecific genetic variation2, 3, 4, 5. Here, combining analyses of molecular data with time series of predicted species distributions and a model of diffusion through time over the past 21 kyr, we unravel caribou response to past and future climate changes across its entire Holarctic distribution. We found that genetic diversity is geographically structured with two main caribou lineages, one originating from and confined to Northeastern America, the other originating from Euro-Beringia but also currently distributed in western North America. Regions that remained climatically stable over the past 21 kyr maintained a high genetic diversity and are also predicted to experience higher climatic stability under future climate change scenarios. Our interdisciplinary approach, combining genetic data and spatial analyses of climatic stability (applicable to virtually any taxon), represents a significant advance in inferring how climate shapes genetic diversity and impacts genetic structure.

Phylogeny and biogeography of Primula sect. Armerina: implications for plant evolution under climate change and the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

BACKGROUND: The historical orogenesis and associated climatic changes of mountain areas have been suggested to partly account for the occurrence of high levels of biodiversity and endemism. However, their effects on dispersal, differentiation and evolution of many groups of plants are still unknown. In this study, we examined the detailed diversification history of Primula sect. Armerina, and used biogeographic analysis and macro-evolutionary modeling to investigate a series of different questions concerning the evolution of the geographical and ecological distribution of the species in this section. RESULTS: We sequenced five chloroplast and one nuclear genes for species of Primula sect. Armerina. Neither chloroplast nor nuclear trees support the monophyly of the section. The major incongruences between the two trees occur among closely related species and may be explained by hybridization. Our dating analyses based on the chloroplast dataset suggest that this section began to diverge from its relatives around 3.55 million years ago, largely coinciding with the last major uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Biogeographic analysis supports the origin of the section in the Himalayan Mountains and dispersal from the Himalayas to Northeastern QTP, Western QTP and Hengduan Mountains. Furthermore, evolutionary models of ecological niches show that the two P. fasciculata clades have significantly different climatic niche optima and rates of niche evolution, indicating niche evolution under climatic changes and further providing evidence for explaining their biogeographic patterns. CONCLUSION: Our results support the hypothesis that geologic and climatic events play important roles in driving biological diversification of organisms in the QTP area. The Pliocene uplift of the QTP and following climatic changes most likely promoted both the inter- and intraspecific divergence of Primula sect. Armerina. This study also illustrates how niche evolution under climatic changes influences biogeographic patterns.

What can ecosystems learn? Expanding evolutionary ecology with learning theory.

BACKGROUND: The structure and organisation of ecological interactions within an ecosystem is modified by the evolution and coevolution of the individual species it contains. Understanding how historical conditions have shaped this architecture is vital for understanding system responses to change at scales from the microbial upwards. However, in the absence of a group selection process, the collective behaviours and ecosystem functions exhibited by the whole community cannot be organised or adapted in a Darwinian sense. A long-standing open question thus persists: Are there alternative organising principles that enable us to understand and predict how the coevolution of the component species creates and maintains complex collective behaviours exhibited by the ecosystem as a whole? RESULTS: Here we answer this question by incorporating principles from connectionist learning, a previously unrelated discipline already using well-developed theories on how emergent behaviours arise in simple networks. Specifically, we show conditions where natural selection on ecological interactions is functionally equivalent to a simple type of connectionist learning, 'unsupervised learning', well-known in neural-network models of cognitive systems to produce many non-trivial collective behaviours. Accordingly, we find that a community can self-organise in a well-defined and non-trivial sense without selection at the community level; its organisation can be conditioned by past experience in the same sense as connectionist learning models habituate to stimuli. This conditioning drives the community to form a distributed ecological memory of multiple past states, causing the community to: a) converge to these states from any random initial composition; b) accurately restore historical compositions from small fragments; c) recover a state composition following disturbance; and d) to correctly classify ambiguous initial compositions according to their similarity to learned compositions. We examine how the formation of alternative stable states alters the community's response to changing environmental forcing, and we identify conditions under which the ecosystem exhibits hysteresis with potential for catastrophic regime shifts. CONCLUSIONS: This work highlights the potential of connectionist theory to expand our understanding of evo-eco dynamics and collective ecological behaviours. Within this framework we find that, despite not being a Darwinian unit, ecological communities can behave like connectionist learning systems, creating internal conditions that habituate to past environmental conditions and actively recalling those conditions. REVIEWERS: This article was reviewed by Prof. Ricard V Solé, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona and Prof. Rob Knight, University of Colorado, Boulder.

Combining conservative and variable markers to inferthe evolutionary history of Prunus subgen. Amygdalus s.l.under domestication

The genus Prunus L. is large and economically important. However, phylogenetic relationships within Prunus at low taxonomic level, particularly in the subgenus Amygdalus L. s.l., remain poorly investigated. This paper attempts to document the evolutionary history of Amygdalus s.l. and establishes a temporal framework, by assembling molecular data from conservative and variable molecular markers. The nuclear s6pdh gene in combination with the plastid trnSG spacer are analyzed with bayesian and maximum likelihood methods. Since previous phylogenetic analysis with these markers lacked resolution, we additionally analyzed 13 nuclear SSR loci with the δµ2 distance, followed by an unweighted pair group method using arithmetic averages algorithm. Our phylogenetic analysis with both sequence and SSR loci confirms the split between sections Amygdalus and Persica, comprising almonds and peaches, respectively. This result is in agreement with biogeographic data showing that each of the two sections is naturally distributed on each side of the Central Asian Massif chain. Using coalescent based estimations, divergence times between the two sections strongly varied when considering sequence data only or combined with SSR. The sequence-only based estimate (5 million years ago) was congruent with the Central Asian Massif orogeny and subsequent climate change. Given the low level of differentiation within the two sections using both marker types, the utility of combining microsatellites and data sequences to address phylogenetic relationships at low taxonomic level within Amygdalus is discussed. The recent evolutionary histories of almond and peach are discussed in view of the domestication processes that arose in these two phenotypically-diverging gene pools: almonds and peaches were domesticated from the Amygdalus s.s. and Persica sections, respectively. Such economically important crops may serve as good model to study divergent domestication process in close genetic pool.

Enabling Change in Universities: Enhancing Education for Sustainable Development with Tools for Quality Assurance

Enabling Change in Universities: Enhancing Education for Sustainable Development with Tools for Quality Assurance This thesis deals with enabling change in universities, more explicitly enhancing education for sustainable development with tools for quality assurance. Change management is a discipline within management that was developed in the 1980s because business changed from being predictable to unpredictable. The PEST mnemonic is a method to categorize factors enabling change; such as political, economic, socio-cultural and technological factors, which all affect higher education. A classification of a change, in either hard or soft, can help understanding the type of change that an organization is facing. Hard changes are more applied to problems that have clear objectives and indicators, with a known cause of the problem. Soft changes are applied to larger problems that affect the entire organization or beyond it. The basic definition for sustainable development is: the future generations should have similar opportunities as the previous. The UN has set as a global goal an integration of education for sustainable development (ESD) at all levels of education during 2005- 2014. The goal is set also in universities, the graduates of which are future leaders for all labor markets. The objective for ESD in higher education is that graduates obtain the competence to take economic, social and environmental costs and benefits into account when making decisions. Knowledge outcomes should aim for systematic and holistic thinking, which requires cross disciplinary education. So far, the development of ESD has not achieved its goals. The UN has identified a need for more transdisclipnary research in ESD. A joint global requirement for universities is quality assurance, the aim of which is to secure and improve teaching and learning. Quality, environmental and integrated management systems are used by some universities for filling the quality assurance requirements. The goal of this thesis is to open up new ways for enhancing ESD in universities, beyond the forerunners; by exploring how management systems could be used as tools for promoting ESD. The thesis is based on five studies. In the first study, I focus on if and how tools for quality assurance could be benefitted for promoting ESD. It is written from a new perspective, the memetic, for reaching a diversity of faculty. A meme is an idea that diffuses from brain to brain. It can be applied for cultural evolution. It is a theory that is based on the evolutionary theory by Darwin, applied for social sciences. In the second Paper, I present the results from the development of the pilot process model for enhancing ESD with management systems. The development of the model is based on a study that includes earlier studies, a survey in academia and an analysis of the practice in 11 universities in the Nordic countries. In the third study, I explore if the change depends on national culture or if it is global. It is a comparative study on both policy and implementation level, between the Nordic countries and China. The fourth study is a single case study based on change management. In this study, I identify what to consider in order to enable the change: enhancing ESD with tools for quality assurance in universities. In the fifth Paper, I present the results of the process model for enhancing ESD with management systems. The model was compared with identified drivers and barriers for enhancing ESD and for implementing management systems. Finally, the process model was piloted and applied for identifying sustainability aspects in curricula. Action research was chosen as methodology because there are not already implemented approaches using quality management for promoting ESD, why the only way to study this is to make it happen. Another reason for choosing action research is since it is essential to involve students and faculty for enhancing ESD. Action based research consists of the following phases: a) diagnosing, b) planning action, c) taking action and d) evaluating action. This research was made possible by a project called Education for Sustainable Development in Academia in the Nordic countries, ESDAN, in which activities were divided into these four phases. Each phase ended with an open seminar, where the results of the study were presented. The objective for the research project was to develop a process for including knowledge in sustainable development in curricula, which could be used in the quality assurance work. Eleven universities from the Nordic countries cooperated in the project. The aim was, by applying the process, to identify and publish examples of relevant sustainability aspects in different degree programs in universities in the Nordic countries. The project was partly financed by the Nordic Council of Ministers and partly by the participating pilot universities. Based on the results of my studies, I consider that quality, environmental and integrated management systems can be used for promoting ESD in universities. Relevant sustainability aspects have been identified in different fields of studies by applying the final process model. The final process model was compared with drivers and barriers for enhancing ESD and for implementing management systems in universities and with succeeding with management systems in industry. It corresponds with these, meaning that drivers are taken into account and barriers tackled. Both ESD and management systems in universities could be considered successful memes, which can reflect an effective way of communication among individuals. I have identified that management systems could be used as tools for hard changes and to support the soft change of enhancing ESD in universities with management system. Based on the change management study I have summarized recommendations on what to consider in order to enable the studied change. The main practical implications of the results are that the process model could be applied for assessment, benchmarking and communication of ESD, connected to quality assurance, when applied. This is possible because the information can be assembled in one picture, which facilitates comparison. The memetic approach can be applied for structuring. It is viable to make comparative studies between cultures, for getting insight in special characteristics of the own culture. Action based research is suitable for involving faculty. Change management can be applied for planning a change, which both enhancing ESD and developing management systems are identified to be.

Achieving EU energy targets – Impacts of evolutionary and revolutionary transition paths on power systems

Ambitious energy targets set by EU put pressures to increase share of renewable electricity supply in this and next decades and therefore, some EU member countries have boosted increasing renewable energy generation capacity by implementing subsidy schemes on national level. In this study, two different change approaches to increase renewable energy supply and increase self-sufficiency of supply are assessed with respect to their impacts on power system, electricity market and electricity generation costs in Finland. It is obtained that the current electricity generation costs are high compared to opportunities of earnings from present-day investor’s perspective. In addition, the growth expectations of consumptions and the price forecasts do not stimulate investing in new generation capacity. Revolutionary transition path is driven by administrative and political interventions to achieve the energy targets. Evolutionary transition path is driven by market-based mechanisms, such as market itself and emission trading scheme. It is obtained in this study that in the revolutionary transition path operation of market-based mechanisms is distorted to some extent and it is likely that this path requires providing more public financial resources compared to evolutionary transition path. In the evolutionary transition path the energy targets are not achieved as quickly but market-based mechanisms function better and investment environment endures more stable compared to revolutionary transition path.

Genetic variation and evolutionary divergence within and among populations, species, and genera of the Cambarinae

Seven crayfish species from three genera of the subfamily Cambarinae were electrophoretically examined for genetic variation at a total of twenty-six loci. Polymorphism was detected primarily at three loci: Ao-2, Lap, and Pgi. The average heterozygosities over-all loci for each species were found to be very low when compared to most other invertebrate species that have been examined electrophoretically. With the exception of Cambarus bartoni, the interpopulation genetic identities are high within any given species. The average interspecific identities are somewhat lower and the average intergeneric identities are lower still. Populations, species and genera conform to the expected taxonomic progression. The two samples of ~ bartoni show high genetic similarity at only 50 percent of the loci compared. Locus by locus identity comparisons among species yield U-shaped distributions of genetic identities. Construction of a phylogenetic dendrogram using species mean genetic distances values shows that species grouping is in agreement with morphological taxonomy with the exception of the high similarity between Orconectespropinquus and Procambarus pictus. This high similarity suggests the possibility of a regulatory change between the two species. It appears that the low heterozygosities, high interpopulation genetic identities, and taxonomic mispositioning can all be explained on the basis of low mutation rates.

The Logical Problem of Language Change

This paper considers the problem of language change. Linguists must explain not only how languages are learned but also how and why they have evolved along certain trajectories and not others. While the language learning problem has focused on the behavior of individuals and how they acquire a particular grammar from a class of grammars ${cal G}$, here we consider a population of such learners and investigate the emergent, global population characteristics of linguistic communities over several generations. We argue that language change follows logically from specific assumptions about grammatical theories and learning paradigms. In particular, we are able to transform parameterized theories and memoryless acquisition algorithms into grammatical dynamical systems, whose evolution depicts a population's evolving linguistic composition. We investigate the linguistic and computational consequences of this model, showing that the formalization allows one to ask questions about diachronic that one otherwise could not ask, such as the effect of varying initial conditions on the resulting diachronic trajectories. From a more programmatic perspective, we give an example of how the dynamical system model for language change can serve as a way to distinguish among alternative grammatical theories, introducing a formal diachronic adequacy criterion for linguistic theories.

A Dynamical Systems Model for Language Change

Formalizing linguists' intuitions of language change as a dynamical system, we quantify the time course of language change including sudden vs. gradual changes in languages. We apply the computer model to the historical loss of Verb Second from Old French to modern French, showing that otherwise adequate grammatical theories can fail our new evolutionary criterion.

Evolutionary bi-stability in pathogen transmission mode

Many pathogens transmit to new hosts by both infection (horizontal transmission) and transfer to the infected host's offspring (vertical transmission). These two transmission modes require speci®c adap- tations of the pathogen that can be mutually exclusive, resulting in a trade-off between horizontal and vertical transmission. We show that in mathematical models such trade-offs can lead to the simultaneous existence of two evolutionary stable states (evolutionary bi-stability) of allocation of resources to the two modes of transmission. We also show that jumping between evolutionary stable states can be induced by gradual environmental changes. Using quantitative PCR-based estimates of abundance in seed and vege- tative parts, we show that the pathogen of wheat, Phaeosphaeria nodorum, has jumped between two distinct states of transmission mode twice in the past 160 years, which, based on published evidence, we interpret as adaptation to environmental change. The ®nding of evolutionary bi-stability has impli- cations for human, animal and other plant diseases. An ill-judged change in a disease control programme could cause the pathogen to evolve a new, and possibly more damaging, combination of transmission modes. Similarly, environmental changes can shift the balance between transmission modes, with adverse effects on human, animal and plant health.

Managing threatened species – the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and the declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviourbased models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley’s declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

Evolutionary history of vegetative reproduction in Porpidia s. l. (lichen-forming ascomycota)

The evolutionary history of gains and losses of vegetative reproductive propagules (soredia) in Porpidia s.l., a group of lichen-forming ascomycetes, was clarified using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches to monophyly tests and a combined MCMC and maximum likelihood approach to ancestral character state reconstructions. The MCMC framework provided confidence estimates for the reconstructions of relationships and ancestral character states, which formed the basis for tests of evolutionary hypotheses. Monophyly tests rejected all hypotheses that predicted any clustering of reproductive modes in extant taxa. In addition, a nearest-neighbor statistic could not reject the hypothesis that the vegetative reproductive mode is randomly distributed throughout the group. These results show that transitions between presence and absence of the vegetative reproductive mode within Porpidia s.l. occurred several times and independently of each other. Likelihood reconstructions of ancestral character states at selected nodes suggest that - contrary to previous thought - the ancestor to Porpidia s.l. already possessed the vegetative reproductive mode. Furthermore, transition rates are reconstructed asymmetrically with the vegetative reproductive mode being gained at a much lower rate than it is lost. A cautious note has to be added, because a simulation study showed that the ancestral character state reconstructions were highly dependent on taxon sampling. However, our central conclusions, particularly the higher rate of change from vegetative reproductive mode present to absent than vice versa within Porpidia s.l., were found to be broadly independent of taxon sampling. [Ancestral character state reconstructions; Ascomycota, Bayesian inference; hypothesis testing; likelihood; MCMC; Porpidia; reproductive systems]