The Relationship between Risk and Expected Return in Europe

Revised: 2006-07

A proposal for sea otter protection and research and request for the return of management to the State of California

v.1 - Text and Summaries (272 page document)

Long memory in return structures from developed markets

[En]The present study aimed at investigating the existence of long memory properties in ten developed stock markets across the globe. When return series exhibit long memory, the series realizations are not independent over time and past returns can help predict future returns, thus violating the market efficiency hypothesis. It poses a serious challenge to the supporters of random walk behavior of the stock returns indicating a potentially predictable component in the series dynamics. We computed Hurst-Mandelbrot’s Classical R/S statistic, Lo’s statistic and semi parametric GPH statistic using spectral regression. The findings suggest existence of long memory in volatility and random walk for logarithmic return series in general for all the selected stock market indices. Findings are in line with the stylized facts of financial time series.

Analysis of fish diversion efficiency and survivorship in the fish return system at San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station

This study examined the efficiency of fish diversion and survivorship of diverted fishes in the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station Fish Return System in 1984 and 1985. Generally, fishes were diverted back to the ocean with high frequency, particularly in 1984. Most species were diverted at rates of 80% or more. Over 90% of the most abundant species, Engraulis mordax, were diverted. The system worked particularly well for strong-swimming forms such as Paralobrax clothratus, Atherinopsis californiensis, and Xenistius californiensis, and did not appreciably divert weaker-swimming species such as Porichthys notatus, Heterostichus rostratus, and Syngnathus sp. Return rates of some species were not as high in 1985 as in 1984. Individuals of most tested species survived both transit through the fish return system and 96 hours in a holding net. Some species, such as E. mordox, X. californiensis, and Umbrina roncador, experienced tittle or no mortality. Survivorship of Seriphus politus was highly variable and no Anchoa delicatissima survived. (PDF file contains 22 pages.)

Ressonâncias de heróis e reis medievais na (re)construção dos personagens da Pedra do Reino por Ariano Suassuna

A presente tese está calcada na análise da obra de Ariano Suassuna, o Romance dA Pedra do Reino e o príncipe do sangue do vai-e-volta, considerado pelo autor como a sua obra maior e, a princípio, o primeiro volume da trilogia A maravilhosa desaventura de Quaderna, o decifrador, e no primeiro volume da segunda parte da trilogia, O rei degolado ao Sol da Onça Caetana. O trabalho consiste, fundamentalmente, em examinar o diálogo estabelecido entre a obra de Suassuna com textos representativos da tradição literária ocidental, mais propriamente com os que remontam ao medievo. Para isso, fez-se um recorte nas relações que o romance trava com a matéria cavaleiresca, principalmente com a Demanda do Santo Graal, na sua estrutura e no desenho psicológico e moral dos personagens, notadamente de Sinésio, que encarna o mito do herói prometido, cujos paradigmas se assentam na figura lendária do Rei Artur, além de Galaaz, e na histórica de D. Sebastião, o rei desaparecido de Portugal. Sabe-se que esses reis e heróis míticos, considerados salvadores, uma vez que retornariam para restituir ao povo a dignidade e a liberdade perdidas, povoaram o imaginário ibérico e chegaram ao Brasil trazidos pelos colonizadores europeus. Dessa forma, a cultura popular do Nordeste brasileiro é povoada de histórias e lendas eternizadas e recriadas no folclore da região e na literatura de Cordel. Mas, ao lado do messianismo, outro aspecto faz-se notório nos personagens de Suassuna: a crueldade. E este tema, bem como o nome do personagem D. Pedro Dinis Quaderna, remete-nos para a história de alguns reis ibéricos da Idade Média: Pedro de Portugal e Pedro de Castela, que serão revisitados à luz da Crônica de D. Pedro de Fernão Lopes, no intuito de observar-se o diálogo com esta estabelecido por Suassuna, direta ou indiretamente

Estimating long-term growth-rate changes of southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) from two periods of tag-return data

Southern bluefin tuna (SBT) (Thunnus maccoyii) growth rates are estimated from tag-return data associated with two time periods, the 1960s and 1980s. The traditional von Bertalanffy growth model (VBG) and a two-phase VBG model were fitted to the data by maximum likelihood. The traditional VBG model did not provide an adequate representation of growth in SBT, and the two-phase VBG yielded a significantly better fit. The results indicated that significant change occurs in the pattern of growth in relation to a VBG curve during the juvenile stages of the SBT life cycle, which may be related to the transition from a tightly schooling fish that spends substantial time in near and surface shore waters to one that is found primarily in more offshore and deeper waters. The results suggest that more complex growth models should be considered for other tunas and for other species that show a marked change in habitat use with age. The likelihood surface for the two-phase VBG model was found to be bimodal and some implications of this are investigated. Significant and substantial differences were found in the growth for fish spawned in the 1960s and in the 1980s, such that after age four there is a difference of about one year in the expected age of a fish of similar length which persists over the size range for which meaningful recapture data are available. This difference may be a density-dependent response as a consequence of the marked reduction in the SBT population. Given the key role that estimates of growth have in most stock assessments, the results indicate that there is a need both for the regular monitoring of growth rates and for provisions for changes in growth over time (possibly related to changes in abundance) in the stock assessment models used for SBT and other species.