Scoping study for a national survey of the prevalence of child abuse and neglect

This is a report produced as a result of a study commissioned by the Australian Government Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse.

Molecular epidemiology of human rhinoviruses

The first part of this work investigates the molecular epidemiology of a human enterovirus (HEV), echovirus 30 (E-30). This project is part of a series of studies performed in our research team analyzing the molecular epidemiology of HEV-B viruses. A total of 129 virus strains had been isolated in different parts of Europe. The sequence analysis was performed in three different genomic regions: 420 nucleotides (nt) in the VP4/VP2 capsid protein coding region, the entire VP1 capsid protein coding gene of 876 nt, and 150 nt in the VP1/2A junction region. The analysis revealed a succession of dominant sublineages within a major genotype. The temporally earlier genotypes had been replaced by a genetically homogenous lineage that has been circulating in Europe since the late 1970s. The same genotype was found by other research groups in North America and Australia. Globally, other cocirculating genetic lineages also exist. The prevalence of a dominant genotype makes E-30 different from other previously studied HEVs, such as polioviruses and coxsackieviruses B4 and B5, for which several coexisting genetic lineages have been reported. The second part of this work deals with molecular epidemiology of human rhinoviruses (HRVs). A total of 61 field isolates were studied in the 420-nt stretch in the capsid coding region of VP4/VP2. The isolates were collected from children under two years of age in Tampere, Finland. Sequences from the clinical isolates clustered in the two previously known phylogenetic clades. Seasonal clustering was found. Also, several distinct serotype-like clusters were found to co-circulate during the same epidemic season. Reappearance of a cluster after disappearing for a season was observed. The molecular epidemiology of the analyzed strains turned out to be complex, and we decided to continue our studies of HRV. Only five previously published complete genome sequences of HRV prototype strains were available for analysis. Therefore, all designated HRV prototype strains (n=102) were sequenced in the VP4/VP2 region, and the possibility of genetic typing of HRV was evaluated. Seventy-six of the 102 prototype strains clustered in HRV genetic group A (HRV-A) and 25 in group B (HRV-B). Serotype 87 clustered separately from other HRVs with HEV species D. The field strains of HRV represented as many as 19 different genotypes, as judged with an approximate demarcation of a 20% nt difference in the VP4/VP2 region. The interserotypic differences of HRV were generally similar to those reported between different HEV serotypes (i.e. about 20%), but smaller differences, less than 10%, were also observed. Because some HRV serotypes are genetically so closely related, we suggest that the genetic typing be performed using the criterion "the closest prototype strain". This study is the first systematic genetic characterization of all known HRV prototype strains, providing a further taxonomic proposal for classification of HRV. We proposed to divide the genus Human rhinoviruses into HRV-A and HRV-B. The final part of the work comprises a phylogenetic analysis of a subset (48) of HRV prototype strains and field isolates (12) in the nonstructural part of the genome coding for the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (3D). The proposed division of the HRV strains in the species HRV-A and HRV-B was also supported by 3D region. HRV-B clustered closer to HEV species B, C, and also to polioviruses than to HRV-A. Intraspecies variation within both HRV-A and HRV-B was greater in the 3D coding region than in the VP4/VP2 coding region, in contrast to HEV. Moreover, the diversity of HRV in 3D exceeded that of HEV. One group of HRV-A, designated HRV-A', formed a separate cluster outside other HRV-A in the 3D region. It formed a cluster also in the capsid region, but located within HRV-A. This may reflect a different evolutionary history of distinct genomic regions among HRV-A. Furthermore, the tree topology within HRV-A in the 3D region differed from that in the VP4/VP2, suggesting possible recombination events in the evolution of the strains. No conflicting phylogenies were observed in any of the 12 field isolates. Possible recombination was further studied using the Similarity and Bootscanning analyses of the complete genome sequences of HRV available in public databases. Evidence for recombination among HRV-A was found, as HRV2 and HRV39 showed higher similarity in the nonstructural part of the genome. Whether HRV2 and HRV39 strains - and perhaps also some other HRV-A strains not yet completely sequenced - are recombinants remains to be determined.

Epidemiology and Treatment Options of Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is caused by an autoimmune inflammation of the small bile ducts. It results to destruction of bile ducts, accumulation of the bile in the liver, and cirrhosis. The prevalence and incidence of PBC is increasing in the Western world. The prevalence is highest in the USA (402 per million) and incidence in Scotland (49/million/year). Our aim was to assess the epidemiology of PBC in Finland. Patients for the epidemiological study were searched from the hospital discharge records from year 1988 to 1999.The prevalence rose from 103 to 180/million from 1988 to 1999, an annual increase of 5.1%. The incidence rose from 12 to 17 /million/year, an annual increase of 3.5%. The age at death increased markedly from 65 to 76 years. The risk of liver related deaths diminished over time. The treatment of PBC is based on Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). During 20 years 50% of patients end up with cirrhosis. Our treatment option was to combine budesonide, a potent corticosteroid with a high first pass metabolism in the liver, to UDCA and evaluate the liver effects and systemic effects such as bone mass density (BMD) changes. Our aim was to find out if combination of laboratory tests would serve as a surrogate marker for PBC and help reducing the need for liver biopsy. Non-cirrhotic PBC patients were randomized to receive budesonide 6 mg/day combined to UDCA 15 mg /kg/day or UDCA alone for three years. The combination therapy with UDCA and budesonide was effective: stage improved 22%, fibrosis 25%, and inflammation 32%. In the UDCA group the changes were: 20% deterioriation in stage and 70% in fibrosis, but a 10% improvement in inflammation. BMD in femoral neck decreased by 3.6% in the combination group and by 1.9% in the UDCA group. The reductions in lumbar spine were 2.8% and 0.7%. Pharmacokinetics did not differ between the stages of PBC. HA, PIIINP, bile acids, and AST were significantly different within stages I-III and could differentiate the mild fibrosis (F0F1) from the moderate (F2F3). The combination of these individual markers (PBC-score) further improved the accuracy. The area under the ROC of the PBC score, using a cut of value 66, had a sensitivity of 81.4% and a specificity of 65.2% to classify the stage of PBC. The prevalence of PBC in Finland increases, which results from increasing incidence and improved survival. The combination of budesonide and UDCA improves liver histology compared to UDCA alone in non-cirrhotic stages of PBC. The treatment may reduce BMD. Hyaluronic acid, PIIINP, AST, and bile acids may serve as tools to monitor the treatment response in the early stages of PBC. The budesonide and UDCA combination therapy is an option for those patients who do not receive full response from UDCA and are still at the non-cirrhotic stage of PBC.

Irritable bowel syndrome in the general population : epidemiology, comorbidity and societal costs

Background: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common functional gastrointestinal (GI) disorder characterised by abdominal pain and abnormal bowel function. It is associated with a high rate of healthcare consumption and significant health care costs. The prevalence and economic burden of IBS in Finland has not been studied before. The aims of this study were to assess the prevalence of IBS according to various diagnostic criteria and to study the rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity in IBS. In addition, health care consumption and societal costs of IBS were to be evaluated. Methods: The study was a two-phase postal survey. Questionnaire I identifying IBS by Manning 2 (at least two of the six Manning symptoms), Manning 3 (at least three Manning symptoms), Rome I, and Rome II criteria, was mailed to a random sample of 5 000 working age subjects. It also covered extra-GI symptoms such as headache, back pain, and depression. Questionnaire II, covering rates of physician visits, and use of GI medication, was sent to subjects fulfilling Manning 2 or Rome II IBS criteria in Questionnaire I. Results: The response rate was 73% and 86% for questionnaires I and II. The prevalence of IBS was 15.9%, 9.6%, 5.6%, and 5.1% according to Manning 2, Manning 3, Rome I, and Rome II criteria. Of those meeting Rome II criteria, 97% also met Manning 2 criteria. Presence of severe abdominal pain was more often reported by subjects meeting either of the Rome criteria than those meeting either of the Manning criteria. Presence of depression, anxiety, and several somatic symptoms was more common among subjects meeting any IBS criterion than by controls. Of subjects with depressive symptoms, 11.6% met Rome II IBS criteria compared to 3.7% of those with no depressiveness. Subjects meeting any IBS criteria made more physician visits than controls. Intensity of GI symptoms and presence of dyspeptic symptoms were the strongest predictors of GI consultations. Presence of dyspeptic symptoms and a history of abdominal pain in childhood also predicted non-GI visits. Annual GI related individual costs were higher in the Rome II group (497 ) than in the Manning 2 group (295 ). Direct expenses of GI symptoms and non GI physician visits ranged between 98M for Rome II and 230M for Manning 2 criteria. Conclusions: The prevalence of IBS varies substantially depending on the criteria applied. Rome II criteria are more restrictive than Manning 2, and they identify an IBS population with more severe GI symptoms, more frequent health care use, and higher individual health care costs. Subjects with IBS demonstrate high rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity regardless of health care seeking status. Perceived symptom severity rather than psychiatric comorbidity predicts health care seeking for GI symptoms. IBS incurs considerable medical costs. The direct GI and non-GI costs are equivalent to up to 5% of outpatient health care and medicine costs in Finland. A more integral approach to IBS by physicians, accounting also for comorbid conditions, may produce a more favourable course in IBS patients and reduce health care expenditures.

Chlamydial infertility in women: Diagnosis, epidemiology and immune response

This project primarily focused on the development of a novel, non-invasive peptide-based ELISA to diagnose C. trachomatis-related infertility in women. In this study, an in silico approach was applied to identify and design novel peptide antigens that are specific to women with C. trachomatis-related infertility. The serological assay was developed such that it could potentially replace invasive techniques for early infertility investigation. The thesis further investigated the sero-prevalence of chlamydial infertility in women from a low-resource, high prevalence setting. In addition, the thesis also identified immune markers that were associated with the C. trachomatis-related infertility in women.

Clinical Phenotype and Genetic Epidemiology of Schizophrenia in a Finnish Isolate

This study is part of the joint project "The Genetic Epidemiology and Molecular Genetics of schizophrenia in Finland" between the Departments of Mental Health and Alcohol Research, and Molecular Medicine at the National Public Health Institute. In the study, we utilized three nationwide health care registers: 1) the Hospital Discharge Register, 2) the Free Medication Register, and 3) the Disability Pension Register, plus the National Population Register, in order to identify all patients with schizophrenia born from 1940 to 1976 (N=33,731) in Finland, and their first degree-relatives. 658 patients with at least one parent born in a homogeneous isolate in northeastern Finland were identified, as well as 4904 familial schizophrenia patients with at least two affected siblings from the whole country. The comparison group was derived from the Health 2000 Study. We collected case records and reassessed the register diagnosis. Were contacted the isolate patients and a random sample of patients from the whole country to make diagnostic clinical interviews and to assess the negative and positive symptoms and signs of schizophrenia. In addition to these patients, we interviewed siblings who were initially healthy according to the Hospital Discharge Register. Of those with a register diagnosis of schizophrenia, schizoaffective or schizophreniform disorder, 69% received a record-based consensus diagnosis and 63% an interview-based diagnosis of schizophrenia. Patients with schizophrenia having first-degree relatives with psychotic disorder had more severe affective flattening and alogia than those who were the only affected individuals in their family. The novel findings were: 1) The prevalence of schizophrenia in the isolate was relatively high based on register (1.5%), case record (0.9-1.3%), and interview (0.7-1.2%) data. 2) Isolate patients, regardless of their familial loading for schizophrenia, had less delusions and hallucinations than the whole country familial patients, which may be related to the genetic homogeneity in the isolate. This phenotype encourages the use of endophenotypes in genetic analyses instead of diagnoses alone. 3) The absence of register diagnosis does not confirm that siblings are healthy, because 7.7% of siblings had psychotic symptoms already before the register diagnoses were identified in 1991. For genetic research, the register diagnosis should therefore be reassessed using either a structured interview or a best- estimate case note consensus diagnosis. Structured clinical interview methods need be considered also in clinical practice.

Detection, epidemiology and host spectrum of cowpox and Borna disease virus infections

Several orthopoxviruses (OPV) and Borna disease virus (BDV) are enveloped, zoonotic viruses with a wide geographical distribution. OPV antibodies cross-react, and former smallpox vaccination has therefore protected human populations from another OPV infection, rodent-borne cowpox virus (CPXV). Cowpox in humans and cats usually manifests as a mild, self-limiting dermatitis and constitutional symptoms, but it can be severe and even life-threatening in the immunocompromised. Classical Borna disease is a progressive meningoencephalomyelitis in horses and sheep known in central Europe for centuries. Nowadays the virus or its close relative infects humans and also several other species in central Europe and elsewhere, but the existence of human Borna disease with its suspected neuropsychiatric symptoms is controversial. The epidemiology of BDV is largely unknown, and the present situation is even more intriguing following the recent detection of several-million-year-old, endogenized BDV genes in primate and various other vertebrate genomes. The aims of this study were to elucidate the importance of CPXV and BDV in Finland and in possible host species, and particularly to 1) establish relevant methods for the detection of CPXV and other OPVs as well as BDV in Finland, 2) determine whether CPXV and BDV exist in Finland, 3) discover how common OPV immunity is in different age groups in Finland, 4) characterize possible disease cases and clarify their epidemiological context, 5) establish the hosts and possible reservoir species of these viruses and their geographical distribution in wild rodents, and 6) elucidate the infection kinetics of BDV in the bank vole. An indirect immunofluorescence assay and avidity measurement were established for the detection, timing and verification of OPV or BDV antibodies in thousands of blood samples from humans, horses, ruminants, lynxes, gallinaceous birds, dogs, cats and rodents. The mostly vaccine-derived OPV seroprevalence was found to decrease gradually according to the year of birth of the sampled human subjects from 100% to 10% in those born after 1977. On the other hand, OPV antibodies indicating natural contact with CPXV or other OPVs were commonly found in domestic and wild animals: the horse, cow, lynx, dog, cat and, with a prevalence occasionally even as high as 92%, in wild rodents, including some previously undetected species and new regions. Antibodies to BDV were detected in humans, horses, a dog, cats, and for the first time in wild rodents, such as bank voles (Myodes glareolus). Because of the controversy within the human Borna disease field, extra verification methods were established for BDV antibody findings: recombinant nucleocapsid and phosphoproteins were produced in Escherichia coli and in a baculovirus system, and peptide arrays were additionally applied. With these verification assays, Finnish human, equine, feline and rodent BDV infections were confirmed. Taken together, wide host spectra were evident for both OPV and BDV infections based on the antibody findings, and OPV infections were found to be geographically broadly distributed. PCR amplification methods were utilised for hundreds of blood and tissue samples. The methods included conventional, nested and real-time PCRs with or without the reverse transcription step and detecting four or two genes of OPVs and BDV, respectively. OPV DNA could be amplified from two human patients and three bank voles, whereas no BDV RNA was detected in naturally infected individuals. Based on the phylogenetic analyses, the Finnish OPV sequences were closely related although not identical to a Russian CPXV isolate, and clearly different from other CPXV strains. Moreover, the Finnish sequences only equalled each other, but the short amplicons obtained from German rodents were identical to monkeypox virus, in addition to German CPXV variants. This reflects the close relationship of all OPVs. In summary, RNA of the Finnish BDV variant could not be detected with the available PCR methods, but OPV DNA infrequently could. The OPV species infecting the patients of this study was proven to be CPXV, which is most probably also responsible for the rodent infections. Multiple cell lines and some newborn rodents were utilised in the isolation of CPXV and BDV from patient and wildlife samples. CPXV could be isolated from a child with severe, generalised cowpox. BDV isolation attempts from rodents were unsuccessful in this study. However, in parallel studies, a transient BDV infection of cells inoculated with equine brain material was detected, and BDV antigens discovered in archival animal brains using established immunohistology. Thus, based on several independent methods, both CPXV and BDV (or a closely related agent) were shown to be present in Finland. Bank voles could be productively infected with BDV. This experimental infection did not result in notable pathological findings or symptoms, despite the intense spread of the virus in the central and peripheral nervous system. Infected voles commonly excreted the virus in urine and faeces, which emphasises their possible role as a BDV reservoir. Moreover, BDV RNA was regularly reverse transcribed into DNA in bank voles, which was detected by amplifying DNA by PCR without reverse transcription, and verified with nuclease treatments. This finding indicates that BDV genes could be endogenized during an acute infection. Although further transmission studies are needed, this experimental infection demonstrated that the bank vole can function as a potential BDV reservoir. In summary, multiple methods were established and applied in large panels to detect two zoonoses novel to Finland: cowpox virus and Borna disease virus. Moreover, new information was obtained on their geographical distribution, host spectrum, epidemiology and infection kinetics.

Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 Subtypes in India: Origin and Evolutionary History of the Predominant Subtype C

Background: India has the third largest HIV-1 epidemic with 2.4 million infected individuals. Molecular epidemiological analysis has identified the predominance of HIV-1 subtype C (HIV-1C). However, the previous reports have been limited by sample size, and uneven geographical distribution. The introduction of HIV-1C in India remains uncertain due to this lack of structured studies. To fill the gap, we characterised the distribution pattern of HIV-1 subtypes in India based on data collection from nationwide clinical cohorts between 2007 and 2011. We also reconstructed the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the predominant HIV-1C strains. Methodology/Principal Findings: Blood samples were collected from 168 HIV-1 seropositive subjects from 7 different states. HIV-1 subtypes were determined using two or three genes, gag, pol, and env using several methods. Bayesian coalescent-based approach was used to reconstruct the time of introduction and population growth patterns of the Indian HIV-1C. For the first time, a high prevalence (10%) of unique recombinant forms (BC and A1C) was observed when two or three genes were used instead of one gene (p<0.01; p = 0.02, respectively). The tMRCA of Indian HIV-1C was estimated using the three viral genes, ranged from 1967 (gag) to 1974 (env). Pol-gene analysis was considered to provide the most reliable estimate 1971, (95% CI: 1965-1976)]. The population growth pattern revealed an initial slow growth phase in the mid-1970s, an exponential phase through the 1980s, and a stationary phase since the early 1990s. Conclusions/Significance: The Indian HIV-1C epidemic originated around 40 years ago from a single or few genetically related African lineages, and since then largely evolved independently. The effective population size in the country has been broadly stable since the 1990s. The evolving viral epidemic, as indicated by the increase of recombinant strains, warrants a need for continued molecular surveillance to guide efficient disease intervention strategies.

Sero-Prevalence of Rodent Pathogens in India

Health monitoring is an integral part of laboratory animal quality standards. However, current or past prevalence data as well as regulatory requirements dictate the frequency, type and the expanse of health monitoring. In an effort to understand the prevalence of rodent pathogens in India, a preliminary study was carried out by sero-epidemiology. Sera samples obtained from 26 public and private animal facilities were analyzed for the presence of antibodies against minute virus of mice (MVM), ectromelia virus (ECTV), lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV), mouse hepatitis virus (MHV), Sendai virus (SeV), and Mycoplasma pulmonis in mice, and SeV, rat parvo virus (RPV), Kilham's rat virus (KRV) and sialodacryoadenitis virus (SDAV) in rats, by sandwich ELISA. It was observed that MHV was the most prevalent agent followed by Mycoplasma pulmonis and MVM in mice, and SDAV followed by RPV were prevalent in rats. On the other hand, none of the samples were positive for ECTV in mice, or SeV or KRV in rats. Multiple infections were common in both mice and rats. The incidence of MHV and Mycoplasma pulmonis was higher in facilities maintained by public organizations than in vivaria of private organizations, although the difference was not statistically different. On the other hand the prevalence of rodent pathogens was significantly higher in the northern part of India than in the South. These studies form the groundwork for detailed sero-prevalence studies which should further lay the foundations for country-specific guidelines for health monitoring of laboratory animals.

The descriptive epidemiology of congenital and acquired cryptorchidism in a UK infant cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Recent studies in other European countries suggest that the prevalence of congenital cryptorchidism continues to increase. This study aimed to explore the prevalence and natural history of congenital cryptorchidism in a UK centre. METHODS: Between October 2001 and July 2008, 784 male infants were born in the prospective Cambridge Baby Growth Study. 742 infants were examined by trained research nurses at birth; testicular position was assessed using standard techniques. Follow-up assessments were completed at ages 3, 12, 18 and 24 months in 615, 462, 393 and 326 infants, respectively. RESULTS: The prevalence of cryptorchidism at birth was 5.9% (95% CI 4.4% to 7.9%). Congenital cryptorchidism was associated with earlier gestational age (p<0.001), lower birth weight (p<0.001), birth length (p<0.001) and shorter penile length at birth (p<0.0001) compared with other infants, but normal size after age 3 months. The prevalence of cryptorchidism declined to 2.4% at 3 months, but unexpectedly rose again to 6.7% at 12 months as a result of new cases. The cumulative incidence of "acquired cryptorchidism" by age 24 months was 7.0% and these cases had shorter penile length during infancy than other infants (p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of congenital cryptorchidism was higher than earlier estimates in UK populations. Furthermore, this study for the first time describes acquired cryptorchidism or "ascending testis" as a common entity in male infants, which is possibly associated with reduced early postnatal androgen activity.

Long-Term Epidemiology of Streptococcus pneumoniae Serogroup 6 in a Region of Southern Europe with Special Reference to Serotype 6E

Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6E has recently been described, but its long-term epidemiology is not well known. From 1981-2013, 704 serogroup 6 clinical isolates were obtained in Gipuzkoa, Basque Country, Spain. All invasive and one in four non-invasive isolates were included. Overall, 75, 97, 51 and 45 serotypes 6A, 6B, 6C and 6E isolates, respectively, were detected. No serotype 6D isolates were identified. The prevalence of serotypes 6E and 6B, but not that of serotypes 6A and 6C, declined after the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. Serotype 6E isolates showed the highest resistance rate. Most serotype 6E isolates were ST90.

The cumulative effect of core lifestyle behaviours on the prevalence of hypertension and dyslipidemia

Background: Most cardiovascular disease (CVD) occurs in the presence of traditional risk factors, including hypertension and dyslipidemia, and these in turn are influenced by behavioural factors such as diet and lifestyle. Previous research has identified a group at low risk of CVD based on a cluster of inter-related factors: body mass index (BMI) < 25 Kg/m2, moderate exercise, alcohol intake, non-smoking and a favourable dietary pattern. The objective of this study was to determine whether these factors are associated with a reduced prevalence of hypertension and dyslipidemia in an Irish adult population. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional survey of 1018 men and women sampled from 17 general practices. Participants completed health, lifestyle and food frequency questionnaires and provided fasting blood samples for analysis of glucose and insulin. We defined a low risk group based on the following protective factors: BMI <25 kg/m2; waist-hip ratio (WHR) <0.85 for women and <0.90 for men; never smoking status; participants with medium to high levels of physical activity; light alcohol consumption (3.5–7 units of alcohol/week) and a "prudent" diet. Dietary patterns were assessed by cluster analysis. Results: We found strong significant inverse associations between the number of protective factors and systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure and dyslipidemia. The prevalence odds ratio of hypertension in persons with 1, 2, 3, ≥ 4 protective factors relative to those with none, were 1.0, 0.76, 0.68 and 0.34 (trend p < 0.01). The prevalence odds ratio of dyslipidemia in persons with 1, 2, 3, ≥ 4 protective factors relative to those with none were 0.83, 0.98, 0.49 and 0.24 (trend p = 0.001). Conclusion: Our findings of a strong inverse association between low risk behaviours and two of the traditional risk factors for CVD highlight the importance of 'the causes of the causes' and the potential for behaviour modification in CVD prevention at a population level.

How common are common mental disorders? Evidence that lifetime prevalence rates are doubled by prospective versus retrospective ascertainment.

BACKGROUND: Most information about the lifetime prevalence of mental disorders comes from retrospective surveys, but how much these surveys have undercounted due to recall failure is unknown. We compared results from a prospective study with those from retrospective studies. METHOD: The representative 1972-1973 Dunedin New Zealand birth cohort (n=1037) was followed to age 32 years with 96% retention, and compared to the national New Zealand Mental Health Survey (NZMHS) and two US National Comorbidity Surveys (NCS and NCS-R). Measures were research diagnoses of anxiety, depression, alcohol dependence and cannabis dependence from ages 18 to 32 years. RESULTS: The prevalence of lifetime disorder to age 32 was approximately doubled in prospective as compared to retrospective data for all four disorder types. Moreover, across disorders, prospective measurement yielded a mean past-year-to-lifetime ratio of 38% whereas retrospective measurement yielded higher mean past-year-to-lifetime ratios of 57% (NZMHS, NCS-R) and 65% (NCS). CONCLUSIONS: Prospective longitudinal studies complement retrospective surveys by providing unique information about lifetime prevalence. The experience of at least one episode of DSM-defined disorder during a lifetime may be far more common in the population than previously thought. Research should ask what this means for etiological theory, construct validity of the DSM approach, public perception of stigma, estimates of the burden of disease and public health policy.