Automated retinal image quality assessment on the UK Biobank dataset for epidemiological studies

Morphological changes in the retinal vascular network are associated with future risk of many systemic and vascular diseases. However, uncertainty over the presence and nature of some of these associations exists. Analysis of data from large population based studies will help to resolve these uncertainties. The QUARTZ (QUantitative Analysis of Retinal vessel Topology and siZe) retinal image analysis system allows automated processing of large numbers of retinal images. However, an image quality assessment module is needed to achieve full automation. In this paper, we propose such an algorithm, which uses the segmented vessel map to determine the suitability of retinal images for use in the creation of vessel morphometric data suitable for epidemiological studies. This includes an effective 3-dimensional feature set and support vector machine classification. A random subset of 800 retinal images from UK Biobank (a large prospective study of 500,000 middle aged adults; where 68,151 underwent retinal imaging) was used to examine the performance of the image quality algorithm. The algorithm achieved a sensitivity of 95.33% and a specificity of 91.13% for the detection of inadequate images. The strong performance of this image quality algorithm will make rapid automated analysis of vascular morphometry feasible on the entire UK Biobank dataset (and other large retinal datasets), with minimal operator involvement, and at low cost.

Optimal control and numerical optimization applied to epidemiological models

A relação entre a epidemiologia, a modelação matemática e as ferramentas computacionais permite construir e testar teorias sobre o desenvolvimento e combate de uma doença. Esta tese tem como motivação o estudo de modelos epidemiológicos aplicados a doenças infeciosas numa perspetiva de Controlo Ótimo, dando particular relevância ao Dengue. Sendo uma doença tropical e subtropical transmitida por mosquitos, afecta cerca de 100 milhões de pessoas por ano, e é considerada pela Organização Mundial de Saúde como uma grande preocupação para a saúde pública. Os modelos matemáticos desenvolvidos e testados neste trabalho, baseiam-se em equações diferenciais ordinárias que descrevem a dinâmica subjacente à doença nomeadamente a interação entre humanos e mosquitos. É feito um estudo analítico dos mesmos relativamente aos pontos de equilíbrio, sua estabilidade e número básico de reprodução. A propagação do Dengue pode ser atenuada através de medidas de controlo do vetor transmissor, tais como o uso de inseticidas específicos e campanhas educacionais. Como o desenvolvimento de uma potencial vacina tem sido uma aposta mundial recente, são propostos modelos baseados na simulação de um hipotético processo de vacinação numa população. Tendo por base a teoria de Controlo Ótimo, são analisadas as estratégias ótimas para o uso destes controlos e respetivas repercussões na redução/erradicação da doença aquando de um surto na população, considerando uma abordagem bioeconómica. Os problemas formulados são resolvidos numericamente usando métodos diretos e indiretos. Os primeiros discretizam o problema reformulando-o num problema de optimização não linear. Os métodos indiretos usam o Princípio do Máximo de Pontryagin como condição necessária para encontrar a curva ótima para o respetivo controlo. Nestas duas estratégias utilizam-se vários pacotes de software numérico. Ao longo deste trabalho, houve sempre um compromisso entre o realismo dos modelos epidemiológicos e a sua tratabilidade em termos matemáticos.

Massive shift in the pneumococcal nasopharyngeal flora after the 7-valent conjugate vaccine: epidemiological studies and testing pathogenic potential in animal models

Dissertation presented to obtain the PhD degree in Biology/Molecular Biology by Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica

Epidemiological studies of Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage in the post-vaccination era among two risk groups: children and the elderly

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D. degree in Biology/ Molecular Biology

Epidemiological traits of the malaria-like parasite Polychromophilus murinus in the Daubenton¿s bat Myotis daubentonii.

BackgroundThe great diversity of bat haemosporidians is being uncovered with the help of molecular tools. Yet most of these studies provide only snapshots in time of the parasites discovered. Polychromophilus murinus, a malaria-like blood parasite, specialised on temperate-zone bats is a species that is being `rediscovered¿. This study describes the infection dynamics over time and between host sex and age classes.MethodsFor three years we followed the members of three breeding colonies of Myotis daubentonii in Western Switzerland and screened them for the prevalence and parasitemia of P. murinus using both molecular tools and traditional microscopy. In order to identify more susceptible classes of hosts, we measured, sexed and aged all individuals. During one year, we additionally measured body temperature and haematocrit values.ResultsJuvenile bats demonstrated much higher parasitemia than any other age class sampled, suggesting that first exposure to the parasite is very early in life during which infections are also at their most intense. Moreover, in subadults there was a clear negative correlation between body condition and intensity of infection, whereas a weak positive correlation was observed in adults. Neither body temperature, nor haematocrit, two proxies used for pathology, could be linked to intensities of infection.ConclusionIf both weaker condition and younger age are associated with higher infection intensity, then the highest selection pressure exerted by P. murinus should be at the juvenile stage. Confusion over the identities and nomenclature of malarial-like parasites requires that molecular barcodes are coupled to accurate morphological descriptions.

Menarche, menopause, and breast cancer risk: individual participant meta-analysis, including 118 964 women with breast cancer from 117 epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Menarche and menopause mark the onset and cessation, respectively, of ovarian activity associated with reproduction, and affect breast cancer risk. Our aim was to assess the strengths of their effects and determine whether they depend on characteristics of the tumours or the affected women. METHODS: Individual data from 117 epidemiological studies, including 118 964 women with invasive breast cancer and 306 091 without the disease, none of whom had used menopausal hormone therapy, were included in the analyses. We calculated adjusted relative risks (RRs) associated with menarche and menopause for breast cancer overall, and by tumour histology and by oestrogen receptor expression. FINDINGS: Breast cancer risk increased by a factor of 1·050 (95% CI 1·044-1·057; p<0·0001) for every year younger at menarche, and independently by a smaller amount (1·029, 1·025-1·032; p<0·0001), for every year older at menopause. Premenopausal women had a greater risk of breast cancer than postmenopausal women of an identical age (RR at age 45-54 years 1·43, 1·33-1·52, p<0·001). All three of these associations were attenuated by increasing adiposity among postmenopausal women, but did not vary materially by women's year of birth, ethnic origin, childbearing history, smoking, alcohol consumption, or hormonal contraceptive use. All three associations were stronger for lobular than for ductal tumours (p<0·006 for each comparison). The effect of menopause in women of an identical age and trends by age at menopause were stronger for oestrogen receptor-positive disease than for oestrogen receptor-negative disease (p<0·01 for both comparisons). INTERPRETATION: The effects of menarche and menopause on breast cancer risk might not be acting merely by lengthening women's total number of reproductive years. Endogenous ovarian hormones are more relevant for oestrogen receptor-positive disease than for oestrogen receptor-negative disease and for lobular than for ductal tumours. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Development and evaluation of double locus sequence typing for molecular epidemiological investigations of Clostridium difficile.

Despite the development of novel typing methods based on whole genome sequencing, most laboratories still rely on classical molecular methods for outbreak investigation or surveillance. Reference methods for Clostridium difficile include ribotyping and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, which are band-comparing methods often difficult to establish and which require reference strain collections. Here, we present the double locus sequence typing (DLST) scheme as a tool to analyse C. difficile isolates. Using a collection of clinical C. difficile isolates recovered during a 1-year period, we evaluated the performance of DLST and compared the results to multilocus sequence typing (MLST), a sequence-based method that has been used to study the structure of bacterial populations and highlight major clones. DLST had a higher discriminatory power compared to MLST (Simpson's index of diversity of 0.979 versus 0.965) and successfully identified all isolates of the study (100 % typeability). Previous studies showed that the discriminatory power of ribotyping was comparable to that of MLST; thus, DLST might be more discriminatory than ribotyping. DLST is easy to establish and provides several advantages, including absence of DNA extraction [polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is performed on colonies], no specific instrumentation, low cost and unambiguous definition of types. Moreover, the implementation of a DLST typing scheme on an Internet database, such as that previously done for Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa ( http://www.dlst.org ), will allow users to easily obtain the DLST type by submitting directly sequencing files and will avoid problems associated with multiple databases.

Preliminary epidemiological study of latent tuberculosis in Mexican agricultural workers in the Niagara region, Canada

It is well documented that the majority of Tuberculosis (TB) cases diagnosed in Canada are related to foreign-bom persons from TB high-burden countries. The Canadian seasonal agricultural workers program (SAWP) operating with Mexico allows migrant workers to enter the country with a temporary work permit for up to 8 months. Preiimnigration screening of these workers by both clinical examination and chest X-ray (CXR) reduces the risk of introducing cases of active pulmonary TB to Canada, but screening for latent TB (LTBI) is not routinely done. Studies carried out in industrialized nations with high immigration from TBendemic countries provide data of lifetime LTBI reactivation of around 10% but little is known about reactivation rates within TB-endemic countries where new infections (or reinfections) may be impossible to distinguish from reactivation. Migrant populations like the SAWP workers who spend considerable amounts of time in both Canada and TBendemic rural areas in Mexico are a unique population in terms of TB epidemiology. However, to our knowledge no studies have been undertaken to explore either the existence of LTBI among Mexican workers, the probability of reactivation or the workers' exposure to TB cases while back in their communities before returning the following season. Being aware of their LTBI status may help workers to exercise healthy behaviours to avoid TB reactivation and therefore continue to access the SAWP. In order to assess the prevalence of LTBI and associated risk factors among Mexican migrant workers a preliminary cross sectional study was designed to involve a convenience sample of the Niagara Region's Mexican workers in 2007. Research ethics clearance was granted by Brock University. Individual questionnaires were administered to collect socio-demographic and TB-related epidemiological data as well as TB knowledge and awareness levels. Cellular immunity to M tuberculosis was assessed by both an Interferon-y release assay (lGRA), QuantiFERON -TB Gold In-Tube (QFf™) and by the tuberculin skin test (TSn using Mantoux. A total of 82 Mexican workers (out of 125 invited) completed the study. Most participants were male (80%) and their age ranged from 22 to 65 years (mean 38.5). The prevalence of LTBI was 34% using TST and 18% using QFTTM. As previously reported, TST (using ~lOmm cut-off) showed a sensitivity of 93.3% and a specificity of 79.1 %. These findings at the moment cannot predict the probability of progression to active TB; only longitudinal cohort studies of this population can ascertain this outcome. However, based on recent publications, lORA positive individuals may have up to 14% probability of reactivation within the next two years. Although according to the SA WP guidelines, all workers undergo TB screening before entering or re-entering Canada, CXR examination requirements showed to be inconsistent for this population: whereas 100% of the workers coming to Canada for the first time reported having the procedure done, only 31 % of returning participants reported having had a CXR in the past year. None of the participants reported ever having a CXR compatible with TB which was consistent with the fact that none had ever been diagnosed with active pulmonary TB and with only 3.6% reporting close contact with a person with active TB in their lifetime. Although Mexico reports that 99% of popUlation is fully immunized against TB within the first year of age, only 85.3% of participants reported receiving BOC vaccine in childhood. Conversely, even when TST is not part of the routine TB screening in endemic countries, a suqDrisingly high 25.6% reported receiving a TST in the past. In regards to TB knowledge and awareness, 74% of the studied population had previous knowledge about (active) TB, 42% correctly identified active TB symptomatology, 4.8% identified the correct route of transmission, 4.8% knew about the existence of LTBI, 3.6% knew that latent TB could reactivate and 48% recognized TB as treatable and curable. Of all variables explored as potential risk factors for LTBI, age was the only one which showed statistical significance. Significant associations could not be proven for other known variables (such as sex, TB contact, history of TB) probably because of the small sample size and the homogeneity of the sample. Screening for LTBI by TST (high sensitivity) followed by confirmation with QFT''"'^ (high specificity) suggests to be a good strategy especially for immigrants from TB high-burden countries. After educational sessions, workers positive for LTBI gained greater knowledge about the signs and symptoms of TB reactivation as well as the risk factors commonly associated with reactivation. Additionally, they were more likely to attend their annual health check up and request a CXR exam to monitor for TB reactivation.

Explaining legal norm transmission using an epidemiological model : the case of employment drug testing

Dans cette thèse, nous construisons un modèle épidémiologique de la dissémina- tion de normes juridiques. L’objectif est d’expliquer la transmission de normes juridiques américaines régissant les tests de dépistages pour drogues au travail vers le Canada ainsi que la propagation subséquente de ces normes à travers la jurisprudence canadienne. La propagation des normes régissant les tests de dépistages pour drogues au travail sert donc à la fois de point de départ pour une réflexion théorique sur la transmission de normes juridiques et pour une étude de cas empirique. Nous partons de la prémisse que les explications du changement juridique, telles celle de la transplantation et celle de l’harmonisation, sont essentiellement métaphoriques. Ces métaphores explicatives fonctionnent en invitant des comparaisons entre les domaines connus et inconnus. Quand ce processus de comparaison est systématisé, la métaphore devient un modèle. Dans la thèse, nous appliquons cette procédure de systématisation afin de transformer la métaphore de la propagation virale en modèle épidémiologique. Après une revue de la littérature sur les épidémies sociales, nous décrivons les éléments pertinents de la théorie épidémiologique pour, ensuite, les transposer au domaine juridique. Le modèle est alors opérationnalisé en l’appliquant à une base de données composée de la jurisprudence pertinente (n=187). Les résultats soutiennent les hypothèses du modèle. 90 % des décisions qui citent les sources américaines sont infectées selon les critères du modèle, alors que seulement 64 % des décisions qui ne citent pas de sources américaines sont infectées. Cela soutient l’hypothèse d’une épidémie dite de « réservoir commun ». Nous avons également démontré une corrélation positive entre la référence à ces décisions et l’état d’infection! : 87 % des décisions qui citent des décisions qui réfèrent aux sources américaines sont infectées, alors que le taux d’infection parmi la population restante est de seulement 53 %. Les résultats semblables ont été obtenus pour les décisions de troisième génération. Cela soutient l’hypothèse selon laquelle il y a eu propagation à travers la jurisprudence suite aux contacts initiaux avec le réservoir commun. Des corrélations positives ont aussi été démontrées entre l’état d’infection et l’appartenance à l’une ou l’autre de sous-populations particulières qui seraient, par hypothèse, des points d’infection. En conclusion de la thèse, nous avançons que c’est seulement après avoir construit un modèle et d’avoir constaté ses limites que nous pouvons vraiment comprendre le rôle des métaphores et des modèles dans l’explication de phénomènes juridiques.

Epidemiological study on antimicrobial use and non-compliance with withdrawal times in broiler farms in Vietnam

L’utilisation d’antimicrobiens chez les animaux de consommation est une source de préoccupation importante pour la santé publique à travers le monde en raison de ses impacts potentiels sur l’émergence de micro-organismes résistants aux antimicrobiens et sur la présence de résidus antimicrobiens néfastes dans la viande. Cependant, dans les pays en développement, peu de données sont disponibles sur les pratiques d’utilisation des antimicrobiens à la ferme. Par conséquent, une étude épidémiologique transversale a été menée de juin à août 2011 dans des élevages de poulets de chair situés dans le sud du Vietnam, ayant pour objectifs de décrire la prévalence d’utilisation des antimicrobiens ajoutés à l’eau de boisson ou aux aliments à la ferme, et de tester les associations entre les caractéristiques des fermes et la non-conformité avec les périodes de retrait recommandés sur l’étiquette des produits. Un échantillon d’accommodement de 70 fermes a été sélectionné. Les propriétaires des fermes ont été interrogés en personne afin de compléter un questionnaire sur les caractéristiques des fermes et les pratiques d’utilisation d’antimicrobiens. Au cours des 6 mois précédant les entrevues, il a été rapporté que la colistine, la tylosine, l’ampicilline, l’enrofloxacine, la doxycycline, l’amoxicilline, la diavéridine et la sulfadimidine ont été utilisés au moins une fois dans les fermes échantillonnées, avec une fréquence descendante (de 75.7% à 30.0%). D’après deux scénarios de risque basés sur la comparaison de la période de retrait recommandée sur l’étiquette du produit et celle pratiquée à la ferme, de 14.3% à 44.3% des propriétaires de ferme interrogés n’ont pas respecté la période de retrait recommandée sur l’étiquette au moins une fois au cours des 6 derniers mois, et ce pour au moins un antimicrobien. Les facteurs de risque associés (p<0.05) avec une non-conformité avec la période de retrait recommandée sur l’étiquette pour au moins un des deux scénarios sont les suivants : élever des oiseaux qui n’appartiennent pas tous à des races d’origine asiatique, vacciner contre la bronchite infectieuse, avoir utilisé plus de 6 différents antimicrobiens à la ferme au cours des 6 derniers mois, et utiliser un mélange d’aliments fait maison et commerciaux. Nos résultats soulignent l’importance d’utiliser les antimicrobiens de façon judicieuse et en respectant les temps de retrait officiels, afin de protéger le consommateur contre les risques pour la santé causés par une exposition à des niveaux nocifs de résidus antimicrobiens.

Development and use of a multiplex real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay for detection and differentiation of Porcine circovirus-2 genotypes 2a and 2b in an epidemiological survey.

By the end of 2004, the Canadian swine population had experienced a severe 2 increase in the incidence of Porcine circovirus-associated disease (PCVAD), a problem that was 3 associated with the emergence of a new Porcine circovirus-2 genotype (PCV-2b), previously 4 unrecovered in North America. Thus it became important to develop a diagnostic tool that could 5 differentiate between the old and new circulating genotypes (PCV-2a and -2b, respectively). 6 Consequently, a multiplex real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (mrtqPCR) assay that 7 could sensitively and specifically identify and differentiate PCV-2 genotypes was developed. A 8 retrospective epidemiological survey that used the mrtqPCR assay was performed to determine if 9 cofactors could affect the risk of PCVAD. From 121 PCV-2–positive cases gathered for this 10 study, 4.13%, 92.56% and 3.31% were positive for PCV-2a, PCV-2b, and both genotypes, 11 respectively. In a data analysis using univariate logistic regressions, PCVAD compatible 12 (PCVAD/c) score was significantly associated with the presence of Porcine reproductive and 13 respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), PRRSV viral load, PCV-2 viral load, and PCV-2 14 immunohistochemistry (IHC) results. Polytomous logistic regression analysis revealed that 15 PCVAD/c score was affected by PCV-2 viral load (P = 0.0161) and IHC (P = 0.0128), but not by 16 the PRRSV variables (P > 0.9); suggesting that mrtqPCR in tissue is a reliable alternative to IHC. 17 Logistic regression analyses revealed that PCV-2 increased the odds ratio of isolating 2 major 18 swine pathogens of the respiratory tract, Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae and Streptococcus 19 suis serotypes 1/2, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7, which are serotypes commonly associated with clinical 20 diseases.

Educational inequalities in quantity, duration and type of tobacco consumption among lung cancer patients in Asturias : Epidemiological analices

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimality analysis of Th1/Th2 immune responses during microparasite-macroparasite co-infection, with epidemiological feedbacks

Individuals are typically co-infected by a diverse community of microparasites (e.g. viruses or protozoa) and macroparasites (e.g. helminths). Vertebrates respond to these parasites differently, typically mounting T helper type 1 (Th1) responses against microparasites and Th2 responses against macroparasites. These two responses may be antagonistic such that hosts face a 'decision' of how to allocate potentially limiting resources. Such decisions at the individual host level will influence parasite abundance at the population level which, in turn, will feed back upon the individual level. We take a first step towards a complete theoretical framework by placing an analysis of optimal immune responses under microparasite-macroparasite co-infection within an epidemiological framework. We show that the optimal immune allocation is quantitatively sensitive to the shape of the trade-off curve and qualitatively sensitive to life-history traits of the host, microparasite and macroparasite. This model represents an important first step in placing optimality models of the immune response to co-infection into an epidemiological framework. Ultimately, however, a more complete framework is needed to bring together the optimal strategy at the individual level and the population-level consequences of those responses, before we can truly understand the evolution of host immune responses under parasite co-infection.