An epidemic of tuberculosis with a high rate of tuberculin anergy among a population previously unexposed to tuberculosis, the Yanomami Indians of the Brazilian Amazon

A survey of an emerging tuberculosis epidemic among the Yanomami Indians of the Amazonian rain forest provided a unique opportunity to study the impact of tuberculosis on a population isolated from contact with the tubercle bacillus for millennia until the mid-1960s. Within the Yanomami population, an extraordinary high prevalence of active tuberculosis (6.4% of 625 individuals clinically examined) was observed, indicating a high susceptibility to disease, even among bacille Calmette–Guérin-vaccinated individuals. Observational studies on cell-mediated and humoral immune responses of the Yanomami Indians compared with contemporary residents of the region suggest profound differences in immunological responsiveness to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Among the Yanomami, a very high prevalence of tuberculin skin test anergy was found. Of patients with active tuberculosis, 46% had purified protein derivative of tuberculosis reactions <10 mm; similarly 58% of recent bacillus Calmette–Guérin vaccines exhibited skin test reactions <5 mm. The Yanomami also had higher titers of antibodies against M. tuberculosis glycolipid antigens (>70%) than the control subjects comprised of Brazilians of European descent (14%). The antibodies were mostly of the IgM isotype. Among the tuberculosis patients who also produced IgG antibodies, the titers of IgG4 were significantly higher among the Yanomami than in the control population. Although it was not possible to analyze T-cell responses or patterns of lymphokine production in vitro because of the remoteness of the villages from laboratory facilities, the results suggest that the first encounter of the Yanomami Indian population with tuberculosis engenders a diminished cell-mediated immune response and an increased production antibody responses, relative to other populations with extensive previous contact with the pathogen. These findings suggest that tuberculosis may represent a powerful selective pressure on human evolution that over centuries has shaped the nature of human immune responses to infection.

Fit genotypes and escape variants of subgroup III Neisseria meningitidis during three pandemics of epidemic meningitis

The genetic variability at six polymorphic loci was examined within a global collection of 502 isolates of subgroup III, serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis. Nine “genoclouds” were identified, consisting of genotypes that were isolated repeatedly plus 48 descendent genotypes that were isolated rarely. These genoclouds have caused three pandemic waves of disease since the mid-1960s, the most recent of which was imported from East Asia to Europe and Africa in the mid-1990s. Many of the genotypes are escape variants, resulting from positive selection that we attribute to herd immunity. Despite positive selection, most escape variants are less fit than their parents and are lost because of competition and bottlenecks during spread from country to country. Competition between fit genotypes results in dramatic changes in population composition over short time periods.

Identification of multiple quantitative trait loci linked to prion disease incubation period in mice

Polymorphisms in the prion protein gene are known to affect prion disease incubation times and susceptibility in humans and mice. However, studies with inbred lines of mice show that large differences in incubation times occur even with the same amino acid sequence of the prion protein, suggesting that other genes may contribute to the observed variation. To identify these loci we analyzed 1,009 animals from an F2 intercross between two strains of mice, CAST/Ei and NZW/OlaHSd, with significantly different incubation periods when challenged with RML scrapie prions. Interval mapping identified three highly significantly linked regions on chromosomes 2, 11, and 12; composite interval mapping suggests that each of these regions includes multiple linked quantitative trait loci. Suggestive evidence for linkage was obtained on chromosomes 6 and 7. The sequence conservation between the mouse and human genome suggests that identification of mouse prion susceptibility alleles may have direct relevance to understanding human susceptibility to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infection, as well as identifying key factors in the molecular pathways of prion pathogenesis. However, the demonstration of other major genetic effects on incubation period suggests the need for extreme caution in interpreting estimates of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease epidemic size utilizing existing epidemiological models.

Evolutionary genomics of Staphylococcus aureus: Insights into the origin of methicillin-resistant strains and the toxic shock syndrome epidemic

An emerging theme in medical microbiology is that extensive variation exists in gene content among strains of many pathogenic bacterial species. However, this topic has not been investigated on a genome scale with strains recovered from patients with well-defined clinical conditions. Staphylococcus aureus is a major human pathogen and also causes economically important infections in cows and sheep. A DNA microarray representing >90% of the S. aureus genome was used to characterize genomic diversity, evolutionary relationships, and virulence gene distribution among 36 strains of divergent clonal lineages, including methicillin-resistant strains and organisms causing toxic shock syndrome. Genetic variation in S. aureus is very extensive, with ≈22% of the genome comprised of dispensable genetic material. Eighteen large regions of difference were identified, and 10 of these regions have genes that encode putative virulence factors or proteins mediating antibiotic resistance. We find that lateral gene transfer has played a fundamental role in the evolution of S. aureus. The mec gene has been horizontally transferred into distinct S. aureus chromosomal backgrounds at least five times, demonstrating that methicillin-resistant strains have evolved multiple independent times, rather than from a single ancestral strain. This finding resolves a long-standing controversy in S. aureus research. The epidemic of toxic shock syndrome that occurred in the 1970s was caused by a change in the host environment, rather than rapid geographic dissemination of a new hypervirulent strain. DNA microarray analysis of large samples of clinically characterized strains provides broad insights into evolution, pathogenesis, and disease emergence.

IRS-1 regulation in health and disease

The global incidence of diabetes is increasing at epidemic rates. Estimates suggest there are currently 150 million people with diabetes and this number is expected to double in the next 20 years. Type 2 diabetes accounts for 95% of all cases and is characterized in part by impaired sensitivity to insulin or 'insulin resistance'. Defects in the insulin signalling pathways underpin this resistance. In the current article we discuss the regulation of Insulin Receptor Substrate-1 (IRS-1), a protein that plays a pivotal role in insulin signalling and whose function is impaired in subjects with insulin resistance. Coordination of IRS-1 function is multi-faceted, involving phosphorylation of IRS-1 at multiple serine/threonine residues. This controls many aspects of IRS-1, including its interaction with the insulin receptor and subsequent tyrosine phosphorylation, as well as its subcellular distribution and targeting for degradation by the proteasome. Such tight control ensures appropriate transduction and attenuation of the insulin signal, thereby regulating insulin action in healthy individuals. Emerging evidence indicates that `diabetogenic factors' associated with insulin resistance, such as TNFalpha and elevated circulating fatty acids, impact on insulin signalling at the level of IRS-1 serine/threonine phosphorylation. The expression and/or activity of several kinases, such as IkappaB kinase beta (IKKbeta) and salt-induced kinase 2 (SIK2), and the phosphorylation of IRS-1 at key sites, such as Ser307 and Ser789, are increased in states of insulin resistance. Identifying the pathways by which such factors activate these and other kinases, and de. ning the precise roles of specific serine/threonine phosphorylation events in IRS-1 regulation, represent important goals which may eventually provide a rationale for therapeutic intervention.

Secondary prevention of renal and cardiovascular disease: Results of a renal and cardiovascular treatment program in an Australian aboriginal community

Australian Aborigines are experiencing an epidemic of renal and cardiovascular disease. In late 1995 we introduced a treatment program into the Tiwi community, which has a three- to fivefold increase in death rates and a recent annual incidence of treated ESRD of 2760 per million. Eligible for treatment were people with hypertension, diabetics with micro or overt albuminuria, and all people with overt albuminuria. Treatment centered around use of perindopril (Coversyl, Servier), with other agents added to reach BP goals; attempts to control glucose and lipid levels; and health education. Thirty percent of the adult population, or 267 people, were enrolled, with a mean follow up of 3.39 yr. Clinical parameters were followed every 6 mo, and rates of terminal endpoints were compared with those of 327 historical controls matched for baseline disease severity, followed in the pretreatment program era. There was a dramatic reduction in BP in the treatment group, which was sustained through 3 yr of treatment. Albuminuria and GFR stabilized or improved. Rates of natural deaths were reduced by an estimated 50% (P = 0.012); renal deaths were reduced by 57% (P = 0.038); and nonrenal deaths by 46% (P = 0.085). Survival benefit was suggested at all levels of overt albuminuria, and regardless of diabetes status, baseline BP, or prior administration of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI). No significant benefit was apparent among people without overt albuminuria, nor among those with GFR less than 60 ml/min. An estimated 13 renal deaths and 10 nonrenal deaths were prevented, with the number-needed-to-treat to avoid one terminal event of only 11.6. Falling deaths and renal failure in the whole community support these estimates. The program was extremely cost-effective. Programs like this should be introduced to all high-risk communities as a matter of urgency.

The population structure of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax during an epidemic of malaria in the eastern highlands of Papua New Guinea

Although most of the Papua New Guinea highlands are too high for stable malaria transmission, local epidemics are a regular feature of the region. Few detailed descriptions of such epidemics are available, however. We describe the investigation of a malaria epidemic in the Obura Valley, Eastern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea. Of the 244 samples examined by microscopy, 6.6% were positive for Plasmodium falciparum only, 9.4% were positive for Plasmodium vivax only, and 1.2% were mixed infections. MSP2 and MSP3alpha genotyping and AMA1 sequencing were used to determine the genetic variation present in a sample of P. falciparum and P. vivax infections. The P. vivax infections were found to be genetically highly diverse. In contrast, all P. falciparum samples were of a single genotype. This striking difference in genetic diversity suggests endemic, low-level local transmission for P. vivax but an outside introduction of P. falciparum as the most likely source of the epidemic.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: is all the fat bad?

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is now a major cause of liver disease in developed countries, largely as a result of an epidemic of obesity, diabetes and sedentary lifestyles. This has resulted in raised clinical awareness and diagnostic refinement. The entity encompasses several histologic patterns from benign steatosis to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, the latter having a significant risk of progressive fibrosis and the development of cirrhosis. Labor-atory tests and imaging are not able to distinguish steatosis from steatohepatitis, which requires liver biopsy. However following an assessment of several risk factors, patients can be stratified for the potential risk of fibrosis, allowing the rational use of liver biopsy. This review will describe the various patterns of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and relate this to disease pathogenesis and progression. Strategies for management, including experimental interventions, will be discussed.

Ross River virus disease in Australia, 1886-1998, with analysis of risk factors associated with outbreaks

Ross River virus (RE) is a mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand human and environmental factors driving such events, 57 historical reports oil RR Outbreaks between 1896 and 1998 were examined collectively. The magnitude, regularity, seasonality, and locality of outbreaks were found to be wide ranging; however, analysis of climatic and tidal data highlighted that environmental conditions let differently ill tropical, arid, and temperate regions. Overall, rainfall seems to be the single most important risk factor, with over 90% of major outbreak locations receiving higher than average rainfall in preceding mouths. Many temperatures were close to average, particularly in tropical populations; however, in arid regions, below average maximum temperatures predominated, and ill southeast temperate regions, above average minimum temperatures predominated. High spring tides preceded coastal Outbreaks, both in the presence and absence of rainfall, and the relationship between rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index and Lit Nina episodes suggest they may be useful predictive tools, but only ill southeast temperate regions. Such heterogeneity predisposing outbreaks supports the notion that there are different RE epidemiologies throughout Australia but also Suggests that generic parameters for the prediction and control of outbreaks are of limited use at a local level.

Differences in climatic factors between Ross River virus disease outbreak and nonoutbreak years

Ross River virus is a common mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand climatic factors preceding outbreaks, we compared seasonal and monthly rainfall and temperature trends in outbreak and nonoutbreak years at four epidemic-prone locations. Our analyses showed that rainfall in outbreak years tended to be above average and higher than rainfall in nonoutbreak years. Overall temperatures were warmer during outbreak years. However, there were a number of distinct deviations in temperature, which seem to play a role in either promoting or inhibiting outbreaks. These preliminary findings show that climatic differences occur between outbreak and nonoutbreak years; however, seasonal and monthly trends differed across geo-climatic regions of the country. More detailed research is imperative if we are to optimize the surveillance and control of epidemic polyarthritic disease in Australia.

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.

Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data

Background Our aim was to calculate the global burden of disease and risk factors for 2001, to examine regional trends from 1990 to 2001, and to provide a starting point for the analysis of the Disease Control Priorities Project (DCPP). Methods We calculated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for 136 diseases and injuries, for seven income/geographic country groups. To assess trends, we re-estimated all-cause mortality for 1990 with the same methods as for 2001. We estimated mortality and disease burden attributable to 19 risk factors. Findings About 56 million people died in 2001. Of these, 10.6 million were children, 99% of whom lived in low-and-middle-income countries. More than half of child deaths in 2001 were attributable to acute respiratory infections, measles, diarrhoea, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. The ten leading diseases for global disease burden were perinatal conditions, lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, diarrhoeal diseases, unipolar major depression, malaria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tuberculosis. There was a 20% reduction in global disease burden per head due to communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions between 1990 and 2001. Almost half the disease burden in low-and-middle-income countries is now from non-communicable diseases (disease burden per head in Sub-Saharan Africa and the low-and-middle-income countries of Europe and Central Asia increased between 1990 and 2001). Undernutrition remains the leading risk factor for health loss. An estimated 45% of global mortality and 36% of global disease burden are attributable to the joint hazardous effects of the 19 risk factors studied. Uncertainty in all-cause mortality estimates ranged from around 1% in high-income countries to 15-20% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty was larger for mortality from specific diseases, and for incidence and prevalence of non-fatal outcomes. Interpretation Despite uncertainties about mortality and burden of disease estimates, our findings suggest that substantial gains in health have been achieved in most populations, countered by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and setbacks in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union. our results on major disease, injury, and risk factor causes of loss of health, together with information on the cost-effectiveness of interventions, can assist in accelerating progress towards better health and reducing the persistent differentials in health between poor and rich countries.

Reduced nephron number and glomerulomegaly in Australian Aborigines: A group at high risk for renal disease and hypertension

Aborigines in remote areas of Australia have much higher rates of renal disease, as well as hypertension and cardiovascular disease, than non-Aboriginal Australians. We compared kidney findings in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people in one remote region. Glomerular number and mean glomerular volume were estimated with the disector/fractionator combination in the right kidney of 19 Aborigines and 24 non-Aboriginal people undergoing forensic autopsy for sudden or unexpected death in the Top End of the Northern Territory. Aborigines had 30% fewer glomeruli than non-Aborigines-202000 fewer glomeruli per kidney, or an estimated 404000 fewer per person (P=0.036). Their mean glomerular volume was 27% larger (P=0.016). Glomerular number was significantly correlated with adult height, inferring a relationship with birthweight, which, on average, is much lower in Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal people. Aboriginal people with a history of hypertension had 30% fewer glomeruli than those without-250000 fewer per kidney (P=0.03), or 500000 fewer per person, and their mean glomerular volume was about 25% larger. The lower nephron number in Aboriginal people is compatible with their susceptibility to renal failure. The additional nephron deficit associated with hypertension is compatible with other reports. Lower nephron numbers are probably due in part to reduced nephron endowment, which is related to a suboptimal intrauterine environment. Compensatory glomerular hypertrophy in people with fewer nephrons, while minimizing loss of total filtering surface area, might be exacerbating nephron loss. Optimization of fetal growth should ultimately reduce the florid epidemic of renal disease, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease.

Seropositivity to Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus in non-target mammals during periods of viral activity in a population of wild rabbits in New Zealand

As part of a longitudinal study of the epidemiology of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) in New Zealand, serum samples were obtained from trapped feral animals that may have consumed European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) carcasses (non-target species). During a 21-month period when RHDV infection was monitored in a defined wild rabbit population, 16 feral house cats (Felis catus), 11 stoats (Mustela erminea), four ferrets (Mustela furo) and 126 hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) were incidentally captured in the rabbit traps. The proportions of samples that were seropositive to RHDV were 38% for cats, 18% for stoats, 25% for ferrets and 4% for hedgehogs. Seropositive non-target species were trapped in April 2000, in the absence of an overt epidemic of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) in the rabbit population, but evidence of recent infection in rabbits was shown. Seropositive non-target species were found up to 2.5 months before and 1 month after this RHDV activity in wild rabbits was detected. Seropositive predators were also trapped on the site between 1 and 4.5 months after a dramatic RHD epidemic in February 2001. This study has shown that high antibody titres can be found in non-target species when there is no overt evidence of RHDV infection in the rabbit population, although a temporal relationship could not be assessed statistically owning to the small sample sizes. Predators and scavengers might be able to contribute to localised spread of RHDV through their movements.

Temporal dynamics of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus infection in a low-density population of wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in New Zealand

A longitudinal capture-mark-recapture study was conducted to determine the temporal dynamics of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) in a European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) population of low to moderate density on sand-hill country in the lower North Island of New Zealand. A combination of sampling ( trapping and radio-tracking) and diagnostic (cELISA, PCR and isotype ELISA) methods was employed to obtain data weekly from May 1998 until June 2001. Although rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus ( RHDV) infection was detected in the study population in all 3 years, disease epidemics were evident only in the late summer or autumn months in 1999 and 2001. Overall, 20% of 385 samples obtained from adult animals older than 11 weeks were seropositive. An RHD outbreak in 1999 contributed to an estimated population decline of 26%. A second RHD epidemic in February 2001 was associated with a population decline of 52% over the subsequent month. Following the outbreaks, the seroprevalence in adult survivors was between 40% and 50%. During 2000, no deaths from RHDV were confirmed and mortalities were predominantly attributed to predation. Influx of seronegative immigrants was greatest in the 1999 and 2001 breeding seasons, and preceded the RHD epidemics in those years. Our data suggest that RHD epidemics require the population immunity level to fall below a threshold where propagation of infection can be maintained through the population.