Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing

Long-range dependence in volatility is one of the most prominent examples in financial market research involving universal power laws. Its characterization has recently spurred attempts to provide some explanations of the underlying mechanism. This paper contributes to this recent line of research by analyzing a simple market fraction asset pricing model with two types of traders---fundamentalists who trade on the price deviation from estimated fundamental value and trend followers whose conditional mean and variance of the trend are updated through a geometric learning process. Our analysis shows that agent heterogeneity, risk-adjusted trend chasing through the geometric learning process, and the interplay of noisy fundamental and demand processes and the underlying deterministic dynamics can be the source of power-law distributed fluctuations. In particular, the noisy demand plays an important role in the generation of insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) on returns, while the significant decaying AC patterns of the absolute returns and squared returns are more influenced by the noisy fundamental process. A statistical analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations is conducted to characterize the decay rate. Realistic estimates of the power-law decay indices and the (FI)GARCH parameters are presented.

The impact of the summer 2007 forest fires in Greece: Recent environmental mobilizations, cyber-activism and electoral performance

This report circumambulates around the environmental issue, examining mobilizations in favour of public access to the seafront and protest events against the recent devastating forest fires. By framing this discussion within existing scholarly contributions on related dimensions of the environmental issue (environmental consciousness, grassroots environmental contestation) in Southern Europe in general and Greece in particular, it suggests that the environmental mobilization dynamic in Greece has been infused with a new, global, mobilizing resource that offers new avenues to evaluate the potency of Greek civil society. Finally, the article discusses the results of the 2007 national elections and ponders the chances of political ecology becoming a permanent feature of Greek parliamentary politics.

Disparities in breast cancer mortality trends between 30 European countries: Retrospective trend analysis of WHO mortality database

Objective: To examine changes in temporal trends in breast cancer mortality in women living in 30 European countries.
Design: Retrospective trend analysis.
Data source: WHO mortality database on causes of deaths
Subjects reviewed: Female deaths from breast cancer from 1989 to 2006
Main outcome measures: Changes in breast cancer mortality for all women and by age group (<50, 50-69, and >= 70 years) calculated from linear regressions of log transformed, age adjusted death rates. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify the year when trends in all age mortality began to change.
Results: From 1989 to 2006, there was a median reduction in breast cancer mortality of 19%, ranging from a 45% reduction in Iceland to a 17% increase in Romania. Breast cancer mortality decreased by >= 20% in 15 countries, and the reduction tended to be greater in countries with higher mortality in 1987-9. England and Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland had the second, third, and fourth largest decreases of 35%, 29%, and 30%, respectively. In France, Finland, and Sweden, mortality decreased by 11%, 12%, and 16%, respectively. In central European countries mortality did not decline or even increased during the period. Downward mortality trends usually started between 1988 and 1996, and the persistent reduction from 1999 to 2006 indicates that these trends may continue. The median changes in the age groups were -37% (range -76% to -14%) in women aged <50, -21% (-40% to 14%) in 50-69 year olds, and -2% (-42% to 80%) in >= 70 year olds.
Conclusions: Changes in breast cancer mortality after 1988 varied widely between European countries, and the UK is among the countries with the largest reductions. Women aged <50 years showed the greatest reductions in mortality, also in countries where screening at that age is uncommon. The increasing mortality in some central European countries reflects avoidable mortality.

ARE OECD MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES TREND STATIONARY? EVIDENCE FROM PANEL STATIONARITY TESTS ALLOWING FOR A STRUCTURAL BREAK AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE

This article applies the panel stationarity test with a break proposed by Hadri and Rao (2008) to examine whether 14 macroeconomic variables of OECD countries can be best represented as random walk or stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In contrast to previous studies, based essentially on visual inspection of the break type or just applying the most general break model, we use a model selection procedure based on BIC. We do this for each time series so that heterogeneous break models are allowed for in the panel. Our results suggest, overwhelmingly, that if we account for a structural break, cross-sectional dependence and choose the break models to be congruent with the data, then the null of stationarity cannot be rejected for all the 14 macroeconomic variables examined in this article. This is in sharp contrast with the results obtained by Hurlin (2004), using the same data but a different methodology.

Deconstructing national leadership: Politicians’ accounts of electoral success and failure in the Irish Lisbon Treaty referenda

The Self Categorization approach to national leadership proposes that leaders rhetorically construct national identity as essentialized and inevitable in order to consensualize and mobilize the population. In contrast, discursive studies have demonstrated how national politicians flexibly construct the nation to manage their own accountability in local interactions, though this in turn has neglected broader leadership processes. The present paper brings both approaches together to examine how and when national politicians construct versions of national identity in order to account for their failure as well as success in mobilizing the electorate. Eight semi-structured conversational style interviews were conducted with a strategic sample of eight leading Irish politicians on the subject of the 2008/2009 Irish Lisbon Treaty referenda. Using a Critical Discourse Psychology approach, the hegemonic repertoire of the ‘settled will’
of the informed and consensualized Irish nation was identified across all interviews. Politicians either endorsed the ‘settled will’ repertoire as evidence of their successful leadership, or rejected the repertoire by denying the rationality or unity of the populace to account for their failure. Our results suggest national identity is only constructed as essentialized and inevitable to the extent that it serves a strategic political purpose.

Detection of visual-field deterioration by Glaucoma Progression Analysis and Threshold Noiseless Trend programs

BACKGROUND: To compare the ability of Glaucoma Progression Analysis (GPA) and Threshold Noiseless Trend (TNT) programs to detect visual-field deterioration.

METHODS: Patients with open-angle glaucoma followed for a minimum of 2 years and a minimum of seven reliable visual fields were included. Progression was assessed subjectively by four masked glaucoma experts, and compared with GPA and TNT results. Each case was judged to be stable, deteriorated or suspicious of deterioration

RESULTS: A total of 56 eyes of 42 patients were followed with a mean of 7.8 (SD 1.0) tests over an average of 5.5 (1.04) years. Interobserver agreement to detect progression was good (mean kappa = 0.57). Progression was detected in 10-19 eyes by the experts, in six by GPA and in 24 by TNT. Using the consensus expert opinion as the gold standard (four clinicians detected progression), the GPA sensitivity and specificity were 75% and 83%, respectively, while the TNT sensitivity and specificity was 100% and 77%, respectively.

CONCLUSION: TNT showed greater concordance with the experts than GPA in the detection of visual-field deterioration. GPA showed a high specificity but lower sensitivity, mainly detecting cases of high focality and pronounced mean defect slopes.

Soil Moisture Deficit as a predictor of the trend in soil water status of grass fields

Nutrient loss from agricultural land following organic fertilizer spreading can lead to eutrophication and poor water quality. The risk of pollution is partly related to the soil water status during and after spreading. In response to these issues, a decision support system (DSS) for nutrient management has been developed to predict when soil and weather conditions are suitable for slurry spreading. At the core of the DSS, the Hybrid Soil Moisture Deficit (HSMD) model estimates soil water status relative to field capacity (FC) for three soil classes (well, moderately and poorly drained) and has potential to predict the occurrence of a transport vector when the soil is wetter than FC. Three years of field observation of volumetric water content was used to validate HSMD model predictions of water status and to ensure correct use and interpretation of the drainage classes. Point HSMD model predictions were validated with respect to the temporal and spatial variations in volumetric water content and soil strength properties. It was found that the HSMD model predictions were well related to topsoil water content through time, but a new class intermediate between poor and moderate, perhaps ‘imperfectly drained’, was needed. With correct allocations of a field into a drainage class, the HSMD model predictions reflect field scale trends in water status and therefore the model is suitable for use at the core of a DSS.

Electoral Systems, Ethnic Cleavages, and Experience with Democracy

Recent studies show the effects of electoral systems and ethnic cleavages on the number of parties in emerging democracies differ from those effects observed in more established democracies. Building on recent arguments maintaining the quality of democracy improves with experience, we argue the reason for the differences in the findings between established and emerging democracies is that the effects of these variables on the number of parties differ according to a country’s experience with elections. To test this argument, we analyse party system fragmentation in 89 established and emerging democracies and the conditioning effects experience with elections have on the effects of district magnitude, ethnic cleavages, and variables relating to the presidential party system. The results show the effects of institutional and social cleavage variables differ substantially between emerging and established democracies, but these effects begin to approximate those seen in more established democracies with additional experience with elections.

Holding parties responsible at election time: Multi-level, multi-party government and electoral accountability

This paper highlights the crucial role played by party-specific responsibility attributions in performance-based voting. Three models of electoral accountability, which make distinct assumptions regarding citizens' ability to attribute responsibility to distinct governing parties, are tested in the challenging Northern Ireland context - an exemplar case of multi-level multi-party government in which expectations of performance based voting are low. The paper demonstrates the operation of party-attribution based electoral accountability, using data from the 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study. However, the findings are asymmetric: accountability operates in the Protestant/unionist bloc but not in the Catholic/nationalist bloc. This asymmetry may be explained by the absence of clear ethno-national ideological distinctions between the unionist parties (hence providing political space for performance based accountability to operate) but the continued relevance in the nationalist bloc of ethno-national difference (which limits the scope for performance politics). The implications of the findings for our understanding of the role of party-specific responsibility attribution in performance based models of voting, and for our evaluation of the quality of democracy in post-conflict consociational polities, are discussed. 

Evidence To Challenge the Universality of the Horiuti-Polanyi Mechanism for Hydrogenation in Heterogeneous Catalysis:Origin and Trend of the Preference of a Non-Horiuti-Polanyi Mechanism

The Horiuti-Polanyi mechanism has been considered to be universal for explaining the mechanisms of hydrogenation reactions in heterogeneous catalysis for several decades. In this work, we examine this mechanism for the hydrogenation of acrolein, the simplest alpha,beta-unsaturated aldehyde, in gold-based systems as well as some other metals using extensive first-principles calculations. It is found that a non-Horiuti-Polanyi mechanism is favored in some cases. Furthermore, the physical origin and trend of this mechanism are revealed and discussed regarding the geometrical and electronic effects, which will have a significant influence on current understandings on heterogeneous catalytic hydrogenation reactions and the future catalyst design for these reactions.

Identifying the trend of reactivity for sp2 materials: an electron delocalization model from first principles calculations

The reactivity of sp² carbon materials is studied using the adsorption and dissociation of O₂ on graphene and graphene oxide as model systems. The reactions on the basal plane, zigzag and armchair edges of graphene and graphene oxide with different oxygen-containing groups are calculated using first principles calculations. Two Brønsted-Evans- Polanyi relationships are identified and an electron delocalization model is suggested to understand the general trend of reactivity for sp² carbon materials.