The 2004 election in Spain: terrorism, accountability, and voting

In this paper the electoral consequences of the Islamist terrorist attacks on March 11, 2004 are analysed. According to a quantitative analysis based on a post-electoral survey, we show the causal mechanisms that transform voters’ reactions to the bombings into a particular electoral behaviour and estimate their relevance in the electoral results on March 14, 2004

The disadvantage of winning an election

This paper analyzes the problem that an incumbent faces during the legislature when deciding how to react to popular initiatives or policy proposals coming from different sources. We argue that this potential source of electoral disadvantage that the incumbent obtains after being elected can jeopardize the reelection possibilities of the incumbent. We analyze the decision of the incumbent when facing reelection and we characterize the conditions under which the advantages that the incumbent obtains can overcome the disadvantages. Finally, we use the results of this analysis to discuss some implications of the use of mechanisms of direct democracy like referenda and popular assemblies on electoral competition.

A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specic effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specic effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.

The Committee on Climate Change: A policy analysis

Domestic action on climate change is increasingly important in the light of the difficulties with international agreements and requires a combination of solutions, in terms of institutions and policy instruments. One way of achieving government carbon policy goals may be the creation of an independent body to advise, set or monitor policy. This paper critically assesses the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which was created in 2008 as an independent body to help move the UK towards a low carbon economy. We look at the motivation for its creation in terms of: information provision, advice, monitoring, or policy delegation. In particular we consider its ability to overcome a time inconsistency problem by comparing and contrasting it with another independent body, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. In practice the Committee on Climate Change appears to be the ‘inverse’ of the Monetary Policy Committee, in that it advises on what the policy goal should be rather than being responsible for achieving it. The CCC incorporates both advisory and monitoring functions to inform government and achieve a credible carbon policy over a long time frame. This is a similar framework to that adopted by Stern (2006), but the CCC operates on a continuing basis. We therefore believe the CCC is best viewed as a "Rolling Stern plus" body. There are also concerns as to how binding the budgets actually are and how the budgets interact with other energy policy goals and instruments, such as Renewable Obligation Contracts and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. The CCC could potentially be reformed to include: an explicit information provision role; consumption-based accounting of emissions and control of a policy instrument such as a balanced-budget carbon tax.

Factors Affecting Audit Quality in the 2007 UK Regulatory Environment: Perceptions of Chief Financial Officers, Audit Committee Chairs and Audit Engagement Partners

In line with global changes, the UK regulatory regime for audit and corporate governance has changed significantly since the Enron scandal, with an increased role for audit committees and independent inspection of audit firms. UK listed company chief financial officers (CFOs), audit committee chairs (ACCs) and audit partners (APs) were surveyed in 2007 to obtain views on the impact of 36 economic and regulatory factors on audit quality. 498 usable responses were received, representing a response rate of 36%. All groups rated various audit committee interactions with auditors among the factors most enhancing audit quality. Exploratory factor analysis reduces the 36 factors to nine uncorrelated dimensions. In order of extraction, these are: economic risk; audit committee activities; risk of regulatory action; audit firm ethics; economic independence of auditor; audit partner rotation; risk of client loss; audit firm size; and, lastly, International Standards on Auditing (ISAs) and audit inspection. In addition to the activities of the audit committee, risk factors for the auditor (both economic and certain regulatory risks) are believed to most enhance audit quality. However, ISAs and the audit inspection regime, aspects of the ‘standards-surveillance compliance’ regulatory system, are viewed as less effective. Respondents commented that aspects of the changed regime are largely process and compliance driven, with high costs for limited benefits, supporting psychological bias regulation theory that claims there is overconfidence that a useful regulatory intervention exists.

The Disadvantage of winning an election

This paper analyzes the problem that an incumbent faces during the legislature when deciding how to react to popular initiatives or policy proposals coming from different sources. We argue that this potential source of electoral disadvantage that the incumbent obtains after being elected can jeopardize the reelection possibilities of the incumbent. We analyze the decision of the incumbent when facing reelection and we characterize the conditions under which the advantages that the incumbent obtains can overcome the disadvantages. Finally, we use the results of this analysis to discuss some implications of the use of mechanisms of direct democracy like referenda and popular assemblies on electoral competition.

International Olympic Committee consensus statement on thermoregulatory and altitude challenges for high-level athletes

Challenging environmental conditions, including heat and humidity, cold, and altitude, pose particular risks to the health of Olympic and other high-level athletes. As a further commitment to athlete safety, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) Medical Commission convened a panel of experts to review the scientific evidence base, reach consensus, and underscore practical safety guidelines and new research priorities regarding the unique environmental challenges Olympic and other international-level athletes face. For non-aquatic events, external thermal load is dependent on ambient temperature, humidity, wind speed and solar radiation, while clothing and protective gear can measurably increase thermal strain and prompt premature fatigue. In swimmers, body heat loss is the direct result of convection at a rate that is proportional to the effective water velocity around the swimmer and the temperature difference between the skin and the water. Other cold exposure and conditions, such as during Alpine skiing, biathlon and other sliding sports, facilitate body heat transfer to the environment, potentially leading to hypothermia and/or frostbite; although metabolic heat production during these activities usually increases well above the rate of body heat loss, and protective clothing and limited exposure time in certain events reduces these clinical risks as well. Most athletic events are held at altitudes that pose little to no health risks; and training exposures are typically brief and well-tolerated. While these and other environment-related threats to performance and safety can be lessened or averted by implementing a variety of individual and event preventative measures, more research and evidence-based guidelines and recommendations are needed. In the mean time, the IOC Medical Commission and International Sport Federations have implemented new guidelines and taken additional steps to mitigate risk even further.

IPH response to Seanad Consultation Committee on 'Changes in lifestyle can prevent approximately one third of cancers. How does Government and Society respond to this challenge?'

IPH responded to the Seanad Consultation Committee on the consultation topic ‘Changes in lifestyle can prevent approximately one third of cancers.  How does Government and Society respond to this challenge?’. Between 2010 and 2020 the total number of cancers in Ireland is projected to increase by 40% for women and by just over 50% for men (National Cancer Registry).  A focus is needed on developing social, economical and built environments that support healthy choices. IPH presented recommendations based on the international evidence-base as well as national cancer data and research.

IPH response to the Joint Committee on Health and Children and members of the Northern Ireland Assembly on “Cross-border cooperation on healthcare”

The Institute of Public Health in Ireland were asked to submit a paper on 'Cross-border cooperation on healthcare' for a joint meeting between the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Health and Children and the Northern Ireland Assembly Health Committee which took place in Leinster House on 1 March 2012. Key points from the submission included: o    The Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) is an all-island organisation which promotes cooperation between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland with the aim of improving population health on the island and tackling health inequalities. IPH work is focused on addressing the causes of ill health rather than the design and delivery of treatment services. o    North/South cooperation on health was mandated under the Belfast Agreement in 1998 in five domains, including health promotion. IPH has supported the North South Ministerial Council (NSMC) in respect of the health promotion strand since inception. o    The Department of Health and Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety North-South Feasibility Study (December 2011) states that mutual benefits are most evident from cooperation in the areas of (i) anticipating trends and illnesses in a collective manner (ii) public health issues (iii) specialised services where the population or activity required to sustain the service cannot be met by either jurisdiction alone and (iv) in relation to those areas adjacent to the border. o    The European Directive on Cross-Border Healthcare will be implemented in the next few years which will have implications in relation to patients travelling for healthcare across the Republic of Ireland/Northern Ireland border. o    IPH is supporting the development of new public health strategies in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland which are both due for publication this year. o    There are tangible benefits from cross-border cooperation in the health sector, both in public health and in health service planning and delivery and there are many examples of successful initiatives. However, developments are not occurring in the context of an agreed plan or overall strategic context and tend to be project-based and concentrated in border counties. o    Successful cross-border cooperation requires high level support and integration into departmental policy cycles. The provision of data on an all-island basis supports cross-border cooperation as does the operation of sustainable all-island organisations which can support research, evaluations and programmes. o    In the future, cross-border cooperation in health will be more effective if developed with a strategic planning process intrinsically linked to Departmental priorities. o    North-South cooperation in the areas of alcohol, obesity, tobacco health surveys and rare diseases will be particularly beneficial.

IPH gives evidence to NI Assembly Health Committee Inquiry into Obesity

IPH Chief Executive, Dr Jane Wilde gave evidence to the Northern Ireland Assembly Health Committee inquiry into obesity. Dr Wilde recommended the following: Supporting the Department of Health’s strategic approach based on an understanding of the nature and complexity of obesity. Urgent and short term action to coordinate current activities and ensure focus on the most vulnerable. Exploring new forms and incentives to promote cross departmental work. Setting intermediate outcomes and targets Building stronger links between research, policy and practice, for example asking the Health Committee to set up a round table of researchers and policy makers Working systematically and transparently to identify key areas for cooperation with UK, Ireland and Europe Drawing from IPH work and other research, Dr Wilde briefed the Health Committee on the extent and impact of obesity, reasons for rising levels of obesity and the need for a stronger strategic response. She highlighted the importance of cross government action, the responsibilities of those beyond the health sector and the need for stronger evidence-informed policy and practice.

Children Order Advisory Committee Sixth Report (PDF 821 KB)

Children Order Advisory Committee sixth report

Northern Ireland Sex Offender Strategic Management Committee (PDF 1.15 Mb)

Sexual Offending in Northern Ireland - Managing the Risk 2001-2005

The Children Order Advisory Committee (PDF 410 KB)

Fifth Report